Perhaps you're analysis might be right to a great extent and for some reason I haven't been following up things to monitor how high or bitcoin has gone in the past few weeks.
For the records this topic doesn't belong here it's obviously a speculative discussion on bitcoin which could fit in to the Bitcoin discussion board or the speculation board. I would rather you move to any of the above mentioned boards as it's inappropriate here.
But this is also interesting to discuss here, but we must correlate it with the development of altcoins, because Bitcoin's sentimentality towards altcoins does greatly affect the movement of altcoins, If we see that bitcoin has increased on July 4 to the end of July, then we also note that altcoins have experienced significant increases that can be more than 20% of the movement.
Likewise, there was a decline in August, and bitcoin experienced a decline of more than 10% over the past week, the curse on altcoins reached more than an average of 10% +, and this is a scary thing in altcoins, besides BTCD did experience an increase of up to 55.76% with the market index in the midst of fear ang greed from the crypto market.