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Author Topic: The continuing decline of China's economy - what are the implications ?  (Read 1612 times)
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January 02, 2025, 01:55:37 PM
 #101

....But that's going to end soon... What goods with high added value will China be able to mass produce and where to sell?

Please provide me with more evidence or anything that shows US corporations and companies will stop relying on China to manufacture their products? Or is this just your wish?

As I said, it is true that China still cannot catch up with the US in terms of creating quality products like Iphone or Tesla. But that doesn't mean they do nothing and don't achieve anything significant. I believe that with your knowledge, you know very well the technological advances such as electronic chips, electric cars, smartphones...that China has achieved, it's just that you don't like them so you are trying to deny their efforts.

To me, cooperation between China and the United States is in the interests of both sides and both need each other, neither side is dependent on the other. If the US could stop relying and move factories to India, Vietnam...they would have done it a long time ago but clearly they can't.

It is not by chance or luck that China has become the world's factory as well as the world's second largest economy.

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January 03, 2025, 10:08:06 AM
Last edit: May 07, 2025, 03:27:42 PM by mprep
 #102

It means nothing, except that the companies that developed the PRODUCT let the Chinese factories produce it. Today it is China, and tomorrow, for example, it will be India. But it will not make India the “owner of the product”. Just as now China and their industry are just manufactures allowed to make something. By the way, after the US companies shut down production in China, how will China load these huge facilities so as not to leave millions of people unemployed?  Will it be able to produce and effectively sell, for example, Tamagotchi instead of iPhone ? Smiley I.e. what and how will Chinese industry compensate for the departure of customers from the U.S. ? The problem is that China is used to its sites being busy, they get huge profits for fulfillment of orders from the USA.... But that's going to end soon... What goods with high added value will China be able to mass produce and where to sell?
This is correct. Hell they even used tesla's free open public patents and created their electric vehicles as well, not really selling like Tesla though is it? Even though they have over a billion people, they are still not selling as much as Tesla. In the end, if apple comes out tomorrow and say they are moving manufacturing to India, there is nothing China can do, hence it's always important to remember who holds the power.

It is not the one who builds the product, it's the one who owns the company and that is why Apple is the strong one, Tesla is the strong one, not the factories that make anything for them. In the end, Tesla will eventually fail unless it evolves, because the lithium they need will run out, but that has nothing to do with China, hence I doubt that we are going to get a good result from any of this discussion. China could recover though, stop investing into real estate like crazy, like no more 10+ billion dollar complexes, and you will do fine, just improve your income instead.

It is also worth mentioning that at the beginning of the transfer of production to China, it was a mutually beneficial cooperation - large, strong companies gave technology and money to build production facilities.... It was a symbiosis. But symbiosis implies mutually beneficial existence, not “pulling the blanket over itself”, which China started to do. In this format of relations, the stronger player simply finds another symbiotic.... 



....But that's going to end soon... What goods with high added value will China be able to mass produce and where to sell?

Please provide me with more evidence or anything that shows US corporations and companies will stop relying on China to manufacture their products? Or is this just your wish?

As I said, it is true that China still cannot catch up with the US in terms of creating quality products like Iphone or Tesla. But that doesn't mean they do nothing and don't achieve anything significant. I believe that with your knowledge, you know very well the technological advances such as electronic chips, electric cars, smartphones...that China has achieved, it's just that you don't like them so you are trying to deny their efforts.

To me, cooperation between China and the United States is in the interests of both sides and both need each other, neither side is dependent on the other. If the US could stop relying and move factories to India, Vietnam...they would have done it a long time ago but clearly they can't.

It is not by chance or luck that China has become the world's factory as well as the world's second largest economy.

I'm not bringing you a copy of a document signed by Trump that says “Ordering all U.S. companies, within 24 hours, to close their offices and move them to (list of countries).”
But it's already started to show that the Chinese market is becoming less attractive. From capital outflow from the U.S., to creating more comfortable conditions (first of all taxes) for companies in the U.S., to banning the opening of new offices of high-tech companies from the U.S. ... China is also introducing retaliatory measures that make business in China not profitable for American companies, and if they lose profits, it means that they will move there already it is more profitable. It's just a matter of time...



China has proven to be much more cynical and cunning with its friend (slave) Smiley
As soon as the US imposed a new package of sanctions, including secondary sanctions, the “second pole of the world” obediently supported them. Although yesterday it was still waving its sword, promising to destroy the U.S. Smiley But a benefit is a benefit - if a terrorist and pariah country, which is trying hard to show “friendship” with China, is once again punished, China, a friend of Russia, did not miss the chance to take advantage of it. Now tankers of Russia's shadow fleet will not be able to stop in Chinese ports for refueling, maintenance, repair, ..... This means that a terrorist country led by an international criminal will find it harder and COSTLESS to get its oil. Which means it will find a way to sell it easier and faster. And the near-monopoly buyers of their oil are. India and, uh. Yes yes - China! But now the conversation will be different - China will simply put the Kremlin before the fact that the price of oil for China will be 20-25 dollars per barrel, and no alternatives Smiley)  The only question is - will this oil work inside the Chinese market, or will China make money on oil from the country of raw materials appendage ?

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]


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January 17, 2025, 05:29:49 PM
 #103

There is an interesting piece of dollar shortings.
On youtube: Dated September 22.

 
https://youtu.be/iMzAdMNaXWM

Futures and options are usually leveraged. So if you go the wrong direction you need to apply more funds. 

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January 18, 2025, 06:55:43 PM
 #104

It is still very difficult to predict all the consequences of the Chinese economic downturn.

Firstly, it will most likely lead to a decline in the standard of living of the citizens of the People's Republic of China. The Chinese are a very patient people, however, an economic crisis may cause a political crisis of power. As a result, the political regime in China may move towards totalitarianism, or China may disintegrate into several states. In this latter scenario, the consequences of such an event are generally very difficult to predict.

Most likely, Russia and other oil and gas exporting countries will suffer greatly.

An economic downturn in China will most likely lead to a record drop in oil and gas prices, as well as a slowdown in the development of the world economy.

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January 22, 2025, 02:30:17 PM
 #105

It is still very difficult to predict all the consequences of the Chinese economic downturn.

Blame China. what makes the 1st World more profitable? Data.
Why the 3rd world cannot get out of the mud? They don't give out data, their politicians have something to hide?

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January 22, 2025, 08:28:14 PM
 #106

It is still very difficult to predict all the consequences of the Chinese economic downturn.

Firstly, it will most likely lead to a decline in the standard of living of the citizens of the People's Republic of China. The Chinese are a very patient people, however, an economic crisis may cause a political crisis of power. As a result, the political regime in China may move towards totalitarianism, or China may disintegrate into several states. In this latter scenario, the consequences of such an event are generally very difficult to predict.

Most likely, Russia and other oil and gas exporting countries will suffer greatly.

An economic downturn in China will most likely lead to a record drop in oil and gas prices, as well as a slowdown in the development of the world economy.

Now we will see a kind of “synergy” effect of circumstances
- The fall of the Chinese economy
- Significant political and economic (locally and internationally) changes in the U.S.
As a result, we will have:
- lower energy prices, including such steps as a sharp increase in oil production in the U.S.
- relocation of production capacities of American companies to the U.S. and other countries from China
- market redistribution
- pressuring and “forcing normal behavior” of some rogue countries that nightmare and terrorize the world
and much more...


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