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PrimeHunter2023 (OP)
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August 16, 2024, 09:21:30 PM
 #1

There is a lot of discussion online about gold vs silver, but one major factor is seldom mentioned.

A number of countries are talking about challenging the dollar, including China and Russia.

Silver is an industrial metal whose mining is largely ~50% centered in a few Latin American regions with high indigenous populations.

By pushing silver very high, China and Russia would remove a lot of 'Western' power from Latin America, and it seems likely that will be their strategy, once the next leg up in inflation begins.

For a long time the U.S. has suppressed silver and pumped gold,  as part of its strategy to limit indigenous power in Latin America, and now as fiat devalues it looks like China and Russia only need to spend a few billion usd a year for several years to get military benefit worth trillions.

Beyond that will be cascading effects like nationalizing minerals. Once Western mining companies are kicked out of Bolivia, Peru, Mexico etc there will be a huge Western Achilles heel for industrialization.

Is there any comparable argument for gold?
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August 18, 2024, 07:47:24 PM
 #2

The e argument for gold is a little different. Sure, it has its uses and demand and all that, but when it comes down to it the biggest use is as a store of value. When you are rich and storing value in precious metals, there’s a very large difference between $100,000,000 worth of gold and silver. The sheer space needed to store and energy to transport silver makes gold a more attractive option for those using it at a large scale. That’s the gold argument.

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August 19, 2024, 09:44:58 AM
 #3

Silver is more expensive than gold, as they say.
PrimeHunter2023 (OP)
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August 19, 2024, 11:09:05 AM
 #4

The e argument for gold is a little different. Sure, it has its uses and demand and all that, but when it comes down to it the biggest use is as a store of value. When you are rich and storing value in precious metals, there’s a very large difference between $100,000,000 worth of gold and silver. The sheer space needed to store and energy to transport silver makes gold a more attractive option for those using it at a large scale. That’s the gold argument.

That could be an 'individual vs globalist' idea, but looking more for an argument that includes current geopolitical scene.

Humans have contracted and expanded several times.

For example expanded into Europe and Asia then contracted with extinction of Neandertal etc, then expanded again etc.

Today indigenous American i.e., 'silver holders' in Peru, Bolivia, Mexico are furthest east Asian population and Scandinavian furthest West European.

Britain and China are furiously playing globalist hijinks trying to exterminate all the tribal populations ahead of them. Kind of like a mouse eating her babies to get more space.

There are still a few leading tribal populations, several African tribes that pre exist the recent cycles. Australian Aboriginals are probably close to extermination but they are a leading edge if they can escape Europeans.

Your argument has unknown individuals hoarding but does not imply a motive.
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August 19, 2024, 11:12:33 AM
Last edit: August 20, 2024, 03:59:44 PM by PrimeHunter2023
 #5

Silver is more expensive than gold, as they say.

Same issue. You are referring vaguely to cost of buying/selling and implying maybe a vague motive.

edit to add / maybe you are referring to political cost historically?
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August 19, 2024, 01:30:25 PM
 #6

Is there any comparable argument for gold?
Outside geopolitical measures to the promotion of gold or silver, the use cases of the two precious metals is what gives them the unequal value they possess and to crown it all gold is more scarce than silver, and not to mention, scarcity alone has the propensity to increase the value of any item especially when demand for it is high. In exclusion to industrial use for which both metals have their relevance but in relation to  ostentatious, luxury, and high-end applicability, it is natural that humans has an attraction to gold than silver even before the establishment of modem nations and their global-politics.

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August 19, 2024, 01:45:21 PM
 #7

When comes to silver and gold, I don't know why the global markets do not seem to give as much attention to silver ad they do to gold, being silver a quite strategic mental for industrial processes.
Anyways, I believe you are over estimating the plans and the power some east countries have to cripple the western power there is in countries in Latin America. Mexico is historically in good economical terms with the United States, so it would be weird if that suddenly changed and Mexico started to do commerce with their silver in a different block of countries than their usual.

By the way, natives of Latin American never had actual power over their reserves of precious metals, most of it are under the will and whim of companies.

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August 19, 2024, 02:41:47 PM
 #8

Silver is more expensive than gold, as they say.
Am getting to hear this from you!
I wonder why it’s not given much priority in terms of reserves and jewelry productions.
Good happens to be used more for these purposes than we can say for silver.

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August 20, 2024, 01:08:14 PM
 #9

Global silver reserves amounted to a total of 610,000 metric tons in 2023 while The World Gold Council estimates that all the gold ever mined, and that is accounted for, totalled 190,040 metric tons in 2019. If you compare prices  per gram then gold is expensive than silver. People would love to hold gold instead of silver because gold is rare and many big companies hold gold with them.

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August 20, 2024, 03:42:07 PM
 #10

Is there any comparable argument for gold?
Outside geopolitical measures to the promotion of gold or silver, the use cases of the two precious metals is what gives them the unequal value they possess and to crown it all gold is more scarce than silver, and not to mention, scarcity alone has the propensity to increase the value of any item especially when demand for it is high. In exclusion to industrial use for which both metals have their relevance but in relation to  ostentatious, luxury, and high-end applicability, it is natural that humans has an attraction to gold than silver even before the establishment of modem nations and their global-politics.

Lots of elements are much scarcer than gold.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust

Regarding your last sentence, a lot of analytical psychology books say that, i.e., due to gold = 'solar' or 'deity', but that perspective may be very 'western'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_silver_trade_from_the_16th_to_19th_centuries
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August 20, 2024, 03:49:56 PM
 #11

When comes to silver and gold, I don't know why the global markets do not seem to give as much attention to silver ad they do to gold, being silver a quite strategic mental for industrial processes.
Anyways, I believe you are over estimating the plans and the power some east countries have to cripple the western power there is in countries in Latin America. Mexico is historically in good economical terms with the United States, so it would be weird if that suddenly changed and Mexico started to do commerce with their silver in a different block of countries than their usual.

By the way, natives of Latin American never had actual power over their reserves of precious metals, most of it are under the will and whim of companies.
\
The United States has been exterminating indigenous tribes continuously since its founding. In the last century it has expanded to Latin America.

War on communism?  95% of those killed by the U.S. are indigenous or mestizo.

War on drugs? 95% of those killed by the U.S. are indigenous or mestizo.

War on terror?  95% of those killed by the U.S. are indigenous or mestizo.

It has been UK/U.S. strategy since forever.

Indigenous are starting to see what is going on.

Look at the history of East Timor, even though Google tries to hide it from easy searches. Then look at yesterday's arrangement between indonesia and australia.

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August 20, 2024, 03:57:25 PM
 #12

Global silver reserves amounted to a total of 610,000 metric tons in 2023 while The World Gold Council estimates that all the gold ever mined, and that is accounted for, totalled 190,040 metric tons in 2019. If you compare prices  per gram then gold is expensive than silver. People would love to hold gold instead of silver because gold is rare and many big companies hold gold with them.

1) Scarcity is not everything https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust

2) China whose economy is growing fast has historically tended to prefer silver.

3) Indigenous Americans are known for silver art and jewelry, not gold.

4) Some people claim the UK artificially lowered silver value by creating phantom paper silver, in order to keep indigenous Latin American interests under control.

5) Silver has more important industrial uses than gold in the near future.
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August 20, 2024, 04:16:12 PM
 #13

Global silver reserves amounted to a total of 610,000 metric tons in 2023 while The World Gold Council estimates that all the gold ever mined, and that is accounted for, totalled 190,040 metric tons in 2019. If you compare prices  per gram then gold is expensive than silver. People would love to hold gold instead of silver because gold is rare and many big companies hold gold with them.

note I rounded numbers below

so gold is 2400 and silver is 30 an 80 to 1 ratio in value

and silver  is 600 tons to 200 tons a 3 to 1 ratio in weight.



so  the question is why is gold over priced or why is silver underpriced.

logically silver should be ⅓ the price or 800 not 30 or 1/80 the price.

back in the day say 1978 silver got close to 50 and gold was around 500

this was the tightest margin ever silver about 1/10 the price of gold. not the current 1/80

gold works better for electronics than silver
gold would make the best car batteries ever they would last for 50 to 100 years.

so is the real reason gold is pricey is it is a better industrial metal?

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August 20, 2024, 04:32:43 PM
 #14

Global silver reserves amounted to a total of 610,000 metric tons in 2023 while The World Gold Council estimates that all the gold ever mined, and that is accounted for, totalled 190,040 metric tons in 2019. If you compare prices  per gram then gold is expensive than silver. People would love to hold gold instead of silver because gold is rare and many big companies hold gold with them.

note I rounded numbers below

so gold is 2400 and silver is 30 an 80 to 1 ratio in value

and silver  is 600 tons to 200 tons a 3 to 1 ratio in weight.



so  the question is why is gold over priced or why is silver underpriced.

logically silver should be ⅓ the price or 800 not 30 or 1/80 the price.

back in the day say 1978 silver got close to 50 and gold was around 500

this was the tightest margin ever silver about 1/10 the price of gold. not the current 1/80

gold works better for electronics than silver
gold would make the best car batteries ever they would last for 50 to 100 years.

so is the real reason gold is pricey is it is a better industrial metal?
You have a point Phil.

However the biggest reason for the price of gold over silver is availability. Gold is less abundant than silver.

Also Gold has a more expensive and complex extraction process.

Another advantage gold has is that it has a more expensive appearance than silver.

Gold overall has a higher demand than silver making people see it as a better store for value thus making it's price increase.

On the contrary silver is a better electronic component because of it's high conductivity and low price compared to gold.

Infact in the electrochemical series of elements , silver is the best conductor.

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August 20, 2024, 07:40:22 PM
 #15

The price of gold is about $2,500. The price of silver is near $29.

Divide silver into gold to get around 86... 1:86.

1:3 is what is normal when here isn't any manipulation. So, either silver is a good buy or gold is a bad buy... considering that manipulation will fail sooner or later.

The point? Sell gold and buy silver. But realize that predictions are never accurate 100%. So don't get in one way or the other too deeply.

Cool

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August 22, 2024, 04:42:21 PM
 #16

The price of gold is about $2,500. The price of silver is near $29.

Divide silver into gold to get around 86... 1:86.

1:3 is what is normal when here isn't any manipulation. So, either silver is a good buy or gold is a bad buy... considering that manipulation will fail sooner or later.

The point? Sell gold and buy silver. But realize that predictions are never accurate 100%. So don't get in one way or the other too deeply.

Cool

An this point, I would expected silver to be at least at 1:33 with the value ratio with gold. To me, it sound reasonable gold is overpriced since we started to go through the COVID pandemic and the afterward effects it had on the economy, people started to pile up gold and silver, mostly gold and also people started to get Bitcoin in anticipation of tougher times to come.
The gap between both metals will continue to keep on place or even increase as the uncertainty on the global economy and the wars on the planet continue to stand. It would take a peace deal in Ukraine, and ceasefire in the middle east and an excellent state in the western economy before people started to sell their gold to buy stocks or Treasury bonds.

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PrimeHunter2023 (OP)
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August 22, 2024, 11:07:59 PM
 #17

"The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates that between 2,500 and 3,000 tonnes of gold are mined each year"


"In 2023, the world mined an estimated 26,000 metric tons of silver"

About 1 billion ounces of silver and 100 million ounces of gold are mined per year now.

Countries have increased silver production in recent years, but still there is a supply deficit.
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/2024-08-22/fed-rate-cuts-could-trigger-a-massive-silver-rally-here-s-what-s-coming-next-peter-krauth

Another important factor is political intrigue by mining companies. A person could suspect mining interests may have been involved in putting Claudia Sheinbaum on top in Mexico.

In recent years mining companies have been caught in significant political scandals with minimal news coverage.

There is little doubt Milei received assistance from the U.S. Argentina has massive silver reserves.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-join-us-group-spurring-135021473.html

The issue will probably boil down to indigenous vs colonial power within a few years.
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August 23, 2024, 03:05:17 PM
 #18

You raise valid points about silver's geopolitical implications, especially regarding China and Russia's strategies. Silver's industrial use and concentrated mining in Latin America give it a unique position.

In contrast, gold acts as a universal store of value and a reserve asset for central banks. While gold may not exert the same regional influence, it holds significant importance during economic uncertainty.

Both metals play unique roles in geopolitics, albeit with different strategies.
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August 23, 2024, 04:18:51 PM
 #19

...In contrast, gold acts as a universal store of value and a reserve asset for central banks. While gold may not exert the same regional influence, it holds significant importance during economic uncertainty.



The underlying issue is that China produces a large amount of both silver and gold. It is also the main producer of rare earth elements even if much of its ores originate in Burma.

So if China decided to monetize silver domestically, and export gold as needed to balance foreign accounts...in other words if they decided to sell gold and not export silver....it would devastate the United States in the Americas.

Within the United States the number one domestic security issue the government focuses on is a potential challenge from indigenous sovereignty types. There is no other domestic issue that even comes close.

So the United States has tried to cover itself using its usual tricks, but at some point simple realities will win.

That seems to be why the UK has been shifting its focus sharply towards Australia.
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