Will October be the start of the green months to bull run peak?

[STT]

I dont want to hang off the idea of October or near term, the news off the chart would appear more stormy weather is underway and likely to continue.  How can we predict a clear rise without good reason to do so.  What I see is a downturn in line with a steady decline in peak prices reached (the high tide mark) since late July, with a target 52k in fruition.

  Actually near term there is the idea of us rising above the weekly average, for the last few 4hr bars thats been true and if we get to 59k then 60k without selling out this idea then we can talk more positively tomorrow.   Generally I go with the trend true over weeks into months rather then a weekly average (8 day average is what I follow and noticed as a good indicator, still shorter term view) ;however a bull run  has to start somewhere.

Most simple measure I can think of and something that has to be rising in a bull market is the 50 day average.  We peaked April 23rd, we've not been back as high for that measure since only have prices acted positive in spiked brief action which sold off again hence why MA can be more reliable a view.    People dislike TA because it can be so wishy washy but its clear enough that we need 50 DMA to be rising and the April 23rd mark to be exceeded, with this certainty will come volume and a proper trend to call a bull run.

[lizarder]

If we traced back from its previous years, the month of October is usually the start of bitcoin price surging high. In fact, the last quarter of the year is indeed very bullish in preparation for the year end. But we all know, history may not always repeat itself. It could be the opposite this year, no one actually knows.

The best solution is just to prepare ourselves for the unexpected event that may happen in October. Regardless if it could be bullish or bearish, at least we won't be making abrupt decisions since we have planned for it before October arrives.

Speculative markets will be much more difficult to predict, but the history of Bitcoin's development from year to year can be used as a reference for predictions. October may be marked as the beginning of a price increase, but it does not apply to cycles that have not yet approached ATH even though in fact it can change. If the assumption in that month there is an increase in price, then we can look at previous history and I believe that every time a change occurs, it has a basis for people to see comparisons to make decisions and investment steps.

Another wiser decision is to take advantage of these conditions as an effort to take advantage of a certain percentage and then people can re-accumulate purchases after making a profit. If the long-term investment concept is implemented, then the increase marking is not something that is expected to sell because this kind of person is waiting for ATH as a step to reap profits.

[BALIK]

There is no doubt that things could be very good for October, October could be a preview of what could be very good for December, some investors could make their moves perhaps buying more, and that is something that will happen without a doubt, but we have to be aware of something, the possible fundamentals that could occur, world events are very unstable, there is talk of possible world reactions to the US elections and that could affect the price of BTC, they are simple things, but I would say that it is not a month to define what may come , I will remain attentive to any changes.

If we traced back from its previous years, the month of October is usually the start of bitcoin price surging high. In fact, the last quarter of the year is indeed very bullish in preparation for the year end. But we all know, history may not always repeat itself. It could be the opposite this year, no one actually knows.

The best solution is just to prepare ourselves for the unexpected event that may happen in October. Regardless if it could be bullish or bearish, at least we won't be making abrupt decisions since we have planned for it before October arrives.

One of the important things that you should really be that having in mind is not to make yourself that fixated into something specially on crypto space on which we know that everything could possibly happen.
Always set up some back up plans whenever your analysis fell short on which wek now that this market is really that highly volatile or simply being dynamic. There's no way that you could really be
able to know on whats ahead and there's no way that you could be able to know on what would happen in the future. This is why it would really be that important that you should really be that versatile as
much as possible and you wont really be that fixating yourself on what happened in the past. There's always the tendency that you would really be having that kind of probability on sticking into it.
Its not really that bad on being positive but of course you shouldnt really be that making yourself dumb when it comes into this manner. You should really be always be prepared for whats to come
and not really that seeing yourself believing on a single probability but rather it would really be needing that it would really be in tons.

Everyone knows that anything can happen in the crypto space but many people are doing the opposite of what they know. Mostly what I see is people are still too focused on the halving, on the 4 year cycle and insisting that it will always repeat. There's nothing wrong with that and as you said: optimism is good but many people have become too subjective by not preparing for what's coming.

I have seen some people hypothesize: if the 4-year cycle no longer exists and history does not repeat itself, what will we do next? But most are stubborn, opposed and think that it will never happen. In my opinion: that is not the mindset of a smart investor.

As a bitcoin investor I also want history to repeat itself because I will make big profits but I think we should always have a backup plan because anything can happen.

[asriloni]

Since we aren't done completely with September, we cannot predict on what the second half of the month may give concerning the bitcoin market price, though from the weekly candles and market sentiments seen of recent, we can deduce that the market is trying to break the band above $60,000 but the resistance against this is getting much and higher, which also tells that we should either expect for more bear or bull as the case maybe for this moth while next month may likely favour all through for bull.

I still stick to my first scenario. If we see BTC enter a bull trend, it will start next month. I have no optimism to see it now. This is because this month is going to be a volatile month for bitcoin. Though it's possible for btc to show a reverse movement, we have not yet gone down to reach our new support.

It makes sense if you say that October will be the start of the Bitcoin uptrend.  It has been observed that October is often a strong month for Bitcoin often called Uptober.  It is also expected that the October trend often serves as Pivotal for the Bitcoin market since this month often recovers from September market losses[1]


[1] https://coinedition.com/bitcoins-september-curse-can-2024-be-any-different/

Yeah, and it happens now.



The FED decided to cut 50 basis points. It makes BTC dump from above 60k to the 57k, but a slight recovery is happening now. However, i can't be really sure if this is gonna stay long for bitcoin to stay at the current rate (59k). I expect it's gonna dump soon following the opening of US stock market.

There's still an hour and a half left before the opening of US stock market. And if it dips, I'm sure bitcoin will be dragged down too.

I'm ready with my position to short. Hopefully, we will see it back to the 55k to give us an opportunity to buy.

[kro55]

Yeah, and it happens now.



The FED decided to cut 50 basis points. It makes BTC dump from above 60k to the 57k, but a slight recovery is happening now. However, i can't be really sure if this is gonna stay long for bitcoin to stay at the current rate (59k). I expect it's gonna dump soon following the opening of US stock market.

There's still an hour and a half left before the opening of US stock market. And if it dips, I'm sure bitcoin will be dragged down too.

I'm ready with my position to short. Hopefully, we will see it back to the 55k to give us an opportunity to buy.

Is there any confusion here? As far as I know, the Fed will announce a rate cut on September 19, not today. Where did you get the information that the Fed will cut rates? Also, the chances of the Fed cutting rates by 50 bps are very low, inflation is not really under control yet, and cutting rates by 50 bps is not a wise idea. Jerome Powell is very careful and consistent in everything, so I believe this first rate cut will be 25 bps instead of 50 bps.

As for the impact of the interest rate cut on bitcoin, it is almost certain that there will be a positive impact on the market, but whether there will be a short-term correction remains a question mark. Some have predicted that a “sell the news” scenario is possible, so if that happens, we shouldn’t be too disappointed because in the long run, the rate cut will have a positive impact.

[Zlantann]

Yeah, and it happens now.



The FED decided to cut 50 basis points. It makes BTC dump from above 60k to the 57k, but a slight recovery is happening now. However, i can't be really sure if this is gonna stay long for bitcoin to stay at the current rate (59k). I expect it's gonna dump soon following the opening of US stock market.

There's still an hour and a half left before the opening of US stock market. And if it dips, I'm sure bitcoin will be dragged down too.

I'm ready with my position to short. Hopefully, we will see it back to the 55k to give us an opportunity to buy.

The FEDs meeting should be a two-day event which will end tomorrow with an announcement of the interest rate. I just checked and didn't find anything any news that they have cut interest rates by 50 basic points. The majority of economic experts are predicting 25 basic points cut since inflation is just moderate and there is a need to improve the labour market. I don't expect much from the Fed's decision tomorrow; rather, my focus will be on subsequent meetings this year (November and December). But it will not be out of place to take any opportunity to buy at a cheap price because it seems that there might be more interest rate cuts in the future.

[ivankoh]

Historically the cycles after bitcoin halving around 5 months will have bitcoin surges, so this could be the signal I am really looking forward to in late September or it will be October. I believe that is a positive number for the market to create new momentum. 70k in October I guess

[ibuddy122505]

Q4 is here, and it’s usually the most profitable time of the year. I’m excited to see what it brings this time.

October and November have always been strong months for Bitcoin.

Is it time? Maybe, maybe not. No need to rush—we’ll just have to wait and see how things play out.

I’m hoping for the best, and wishing you a productive and profitable end to the year!

[justdimin]

Everyone knows that anything can happen in the crypto space but many people are doing the opposite of what they know. Mostly what I see is people are still too focused on the halving, on the 4 year cycle and insisting that it will always repeat. There's nothing wrong with that and as you said: optimism is good but many people have become too subjective by not preparing for what's coming.

I have seen some people hypothesize: if the 4-year cycle no longer exists and history does not repeat itself, what will we do next? But most are stubborn, opposed and think that it will never happen. In my opinion: that is not the mindset of a smart investor.

As a bitcoin investor I also want history to repeat itself because I will make big profits but I think we should always have a backup plan because anything can happen.

The people who keep thinking that they are not sure and that is why I think it's a risk and we can't really focus on anything bigger than what we have. Too many people keep seeing that we haven't getting bigger and that is why it is getting too much of a situation, so that is why I think we can see this getting a greater result with time. So, if we keep seeing the lows and not increasing then we are going to see this changing with time and people keep failing to keep seeing this growing for the long term.

This is why we should see this growing with time so just focus on what you are doing right and if we can keep seeing bigger picture then we should be making profit but I also understand why they are making a mistake by not being able to see it as well, that makes sense.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The best solution is just to prepare ourselves for the unexpected event that may happen in October. Regardless if it could be bullish or bearish, at least we won't be making abrupt decisions since we have planned for it before October arrives.

Yes, and interesting because we must prepare to do things better, many prepare to wait for the drop, the fall of bitcoin, but we must also prepare for an eventual bullish trend, and this is a fact, things are better like that, not that it catches us off guard and I think that is the key to everything, whenever it is about doing things better we must be people who prepare in every sense, and well we must also prepare for the best, in another discussion a user was saying precisely that, preparation for things and especially there in the price of btc if it goes up, we must be prepared what we must do.

[stomachgrowls]

Everyone knows that anything can happen in the crypto space but many people are doing the opposite of what they know. Mostly what I see is people are still too focused on the halving, on the 4 year cycle and insisting that it will always repeat. There's nothing wrong with that and as you said: optimism is good but many people have become too subjective by not preparing for what's coming.

I have seen some people hypothesize: if the 4-year cycle no longer exists and history does not repeat itself, what will we do next? But most are stubborn, opposed and think that it will never happen. In my opinion: that is not the mindset of a smart investor.

As a bitcoin investor I also want history to repeat itself because I will make big profits but I think we should always have a backup plan because anything can happen.

The people who keep thinking that they are not sure and that is why I think it's a risk and we can't really focus on anything bigger than what we have. Too many people keep seeing that we haven't getting bigger and that is why it is getting too much of a situation, so that is why I think we can see this getting a greater result with time. So, if we keep seeing the lows and not increasing then we are going to see this changing with time and people keep failing to keep seeing this growing for the long term.

This is why we should see this growing with time so just focus on what you are doing right and if we can keep seeing bigger picture then we should be making profit but I also understand why they are making a mistake by not being able to see it as well, that makes sense.

You are right on this one on which on the moment that you do keep on having those questions in mind in regarding this and  that, then it will really be just that causing you to be confused and if you are dealing up with something like making up some trades or making some investments in crypto then it would really be that basically making out some effect on the time that you are really that always minding about these and that.
October might be start up on the green? Come to look at on the current price as of this moment on which this is something that shows up some green movement and we are still on September. Pretty sure on which there would really be sentiments on which it would really be changing up again basing up on the current market condition, and this really proves out that market is always been that unpredictable.

The key on here is that you should really be knowing on what you should gonna do and this is something the key for you to be able to sustain this market. It would really be that impossible
that you cant be able to learn up things ahead as you do go by or able to gain up experience on the time or moment you do deal up with crypto investment.
You would be able to adjust accordingly or basing up on what you have observed and obtain in all the years been dealing up with this market.

[JeffBrad12]

US's fed rate cut comes in and rektember is cancelled, that's it guys, so essentially the guarantee of october becoming the month of bullrun will be less relevant since we are at higher RSI index right now.
just hoping that current price pump is the sustaining one, really want to see BTC reaching $70k at least, to give signal to the masses that bullrun is still here and it's not going anywhere.

but even the sudden rise from $57k to $65k is already big enough and it will need some breath to catch before resuming the pump, if there's any pullback, it will atmost bounced back at $60500 in my opinion and then go up again.

as of now market seems bullish greed and fear index also reaching neutral as well.

[Wind_FURY]

Can we expect this again ?

This is my first bull run and I think September will be pretty similar to August, very up and down. But once October comes things should start getting better again and I expect us to have a good Q4 and Q1 of 2025.

It could be YES, it could be NO, but LISTEN - The current market condition is an inflection-point! If you didn't pay attention during the great crash of 2022 that brought Bitcoin UNDER the 200-Weekly-SMA, then you SHOULD PAY ATTENTION NOW.

June - 2022 to March 2023 was a Golden Opportunity to buy the DIP. Currently is an opportunity to buy at regular intervals and HODL Bitcoin. Small DIPs are welcome for more units of Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat.

Don't be like those plebs who "day-trade" and lost a majority of their capital from the past seven months of unfavorable price movements.

[Finestream]

That is for the traditional’s bitcoin investors point of view. But if you are a well open-minded person, you will know that this is not the case for every October of the year. Yes, most of it could be the start of the green months, but it could also be the start of the bloody months, which means btc price may drop its price due to some factors that will terribly affect the market.

However, I am still on the bullish side of the market hopefully by October. But I’m not also bothered if ever the market turns unpredictable and become bloody at the last quarter of the year. This is a good opportunity indeed so we can prepare for the bull run that is expected to happen by year 2025.

[_BlackStar]

-snip-

It could be YES, it could be NO, but LISTEN - The current market condition is an inflection-point! If you didn't pay attention during the great crash of 2022 that brought Bitcoin UNDER the 200-Weekly-SMA, then you SHOULD PAY ATTENTION NOW.

June - 2022 to March 2023 was a Golden Opportunity to buy the DIP. Currently is an opportunity to buy at regular intervals and HODL Bitcoin. Small DIPs are welcome for more units of Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat.

Don't be like those plebs who "day-trade" and lost a majority of their capital from the past seven months of unfavorable price movements.

I would also like to say the same thing as you - of course, buying periodically with DCA is the accumulation that can be done as much as possible at this time. As far as I can see today - the market has moved up and has had a positive impact on traders' psychology. Bitcoin price is recovering and today it has broken $64K - but I am not too optimistic about what happened today because it is not a confirmation that the bull run has started.

Talkking about long term - of course buy and hold is the right strategy for bitcoin. They can make bitcoin as their long term investment, they can also make it as their retirement fund. It depends on what the investment plan is - what is clear is that bitcoin still has great potential to provide a worth it return for long term investors.

[add1ct3dd]

Can we expect this again ?

This is my first bull run and I think September will be pretty similar to August, very up and down. But once October comes things should start getting better again and I expect us to have a good Q4 and Q1 of 2025.

It could be YES, it could be NO, but LISTEN - The current market condition is an inflection-point! If you didn't pay attention during the great crash of 2022 that brought Bitcoin UNDER the 200-Weekly-SMA, then you SHOULD PAY ATTENTION NOW.

June - 2022 to March 2023 was a Golden Opportunity to buy the DIP. Currently is an opportunity to buy at regular intervals and HODL Bitcoin. Small DIPs are welcome for more units of Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat.

Don't be like those plebs who "day-trade" and lost a majority of their capital from the past seven months of unfavorable price movements.

I do agree that we are going to have some good amount of chances to buy, specially whenever there is a drop that means it's a good time to buy and get a better result as well so we should be considering that we are at a period where it could make us some good money. I know that it's going to be hard but it can be done and we are going to see the price get to a good level if we know what we are dealing with and because of that I think it's going to be a FOMO period yet again soon enough.

We can even call it right now seeing how it went up and people could be hyped right now about the price as well. But if there is a big drop in price then I think instead of selling and trying to trade then I agree that accumulating more at lower levels that would be better for us and we could make more money from it. I know that it will take a while but we can definitely get a greater result. We should not be worried about it and we could do fine so it's not going to be that big of a deal.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Its not really that bad on being positive but of course you shouldnt really be that making yourself dumb when it comes into this manner. You should really be always be prepared for whats to come
and not really that seeing yourself believing on a single probability but rather it would really be needing that it would really be in tons.

Being positive does not imply that everything has to be as it is said and as it is sought, but having a good attitude towards things that can happen, then in this sense I could say that having a good attitude helps you to have better conviction when faced with uncomfortable and difficult positions, that is the advantage that I see, I see it that way and more in the bitcoin market, for example this year it could reach a new ATH, if not, 2025 looks much more promising, for that reason being positive is not just about waiting for the price to rise to $ 100k or more, it has a lot to do with resisting the attacks that may occur.

[DOH!]

I don't judge by sentiment but there is really a lot of hope in October and November. Historically in 2021, October and then November have been explosive, so I suspect this has a basis to go in the right direction, macro news about the FED or Trump paying with bitcoin for the first time is also creating stimulus and momentum, although I also suspect that the trap of market makers, institutional investors is opening up the money flow again.

[Odusko]

We can't say for now, because Bitcoin market have a way of surprising everybody, and at some point making speculations became something that is out of reach because on several occasions, we have made predictions that never come out to be true.

So let us not speculate too soon about the month of October as it going to be a reflection of the market sentiment and how the market forces act and react to current events at that time.

Bitcoin have done greatly in this month of September a d for sure if the current trends continue, it going to be a good time to accumulate more Bitcoin because the coming month may be more positive than the past months already.

[dezoel]

We cannot know exactly when it will be a good start for the bull and when it can't be. Maybe October will be the month when we are going to start seeing these increases and it will be great, or maybe it won't be and we had some ups this month and in October we are going to go down.

We can never know exactly what is going to happen so we should not be really focusing on anything like that. We need to focus on longer future and that way we can do fine and we can make more money. Because I know that in 6 months time we are going to be higher, maybe I do not know October but I know the future. So, if I buy right now and can hold for long term then I am going to make some good profit, and that is why I keep investing and accumulating.

If it's October then it's great, if it is not then it is still great then it could be November or December and I would still be fine, that's why I try to make as much profit as I possibly could and keep putting more money in.