Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues, up 6.3% since start!

[stompix]

It all started from this thread  with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win  (odds from Stake  )
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Fast forward, Round 1!
LE:
Because too many are confused about the screenshot,no, it's not a multiplier, I just added them to save space.
Each bet is on an individual match!


6 matches
Total Stake Est. Payout
6.0            7.98

Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

[_act_]

As the betting slip is getting long as you accumulate more, the chance to win will be reducing. It might not be in this bet but other bets. I guess going for 1.5 weekly would be good. You can get that from 2 or 3 matches.

I like the match that you selected this week but I do not think this would be good in long term. I will keep following this thread and see the results.

This is a good thread.

[Adbitco]

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win  (odds from Stake  )

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5" so anything less than that could lead to possible lost. But then I can't be sure because most times these teams are crazy. What i does is that, I often choose teams that score above 'Over 1.5, and 2.5' with this it's very much easier at least picked two to four matches. But still the same if you are pretty much cool with your selection then let's watch how it goes.

Good luck mate, don't forget to update this thread here.

[stompix]

As the betting slip is getting long as you accumulate more, the chance to win will be reducing.

The experiment won't run on multipliers, but on individuals I had them selected like that because it was easier to rid.
Each bet will be on an individual game, 6 bets this round with 1 unit on each.

Multiplier at those low odds makes little sense to me honestly, way too risky for way too little.
Lateredit, now that I look again, one match lost even in single and you barely make 0.5, so maybe the multi is not as bad as I thought.

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5"

It's under 1.5 odds for the team to win, I'm not going for goals

[Lida93]

Fast forward, Round 1!


6 matches
Total Stake Est. Payout
6.0            7.98

The number of picks for me is getting too long from when it got beyond three picks making your winning chances slimmer than a three game picks would do. What am saying is that if I were to go by this strategy follow your size of odds I would making sure to settle on not more than three games per bet.

Hence your option of matches as selected in the image appears to be good choice but don't forget that in every weekend one or two of those elite teams does pay the sacrifice of losing to the average team. However, let see how consistent it's goes for you in the future with the strategy

[Maslate]

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

[Porfirii]

Thank you for conducting the experiment and being willing to share the results with us stompix.

Answering to your question (I'm a bit pessimistic when it comes to gambling) I think that it will be "an easy money pit that grows with each week played" as you said. Not flawed to the max to lead you to a -100, but not green either.

I hope I am wrong and you make some profits, but if this will be a long betting experiment, I think that the odds are staked against you.

[YOSHIE]

Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues

@stompix, Good experiment.
I want to also take part in those six games, I like the challenge, I want to see what happens with low odds, Honestly, there are some choices you make that have a good chance, but the game is still a game, on the field will determine everything.


I will post my predictions, shortly after I finish the ritual.

Whether we are of the same mind for this bet or otherwise, give me a few hours.

My bet is for six games.

- Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Valla dollid= result (Barcelona).
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913= result (Parma Calcio).
- FC Bayern Munich vs. SC Freiburg = result (Bayern Munich).
- Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Heidenheim= result (Heidenheim).
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC= result (Arsenal).

[Makus]

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5"

It's under 1.5 odds for the team to win, I'm not going for goals

I get you, going for an under 1.5 win selection is a good idea because, odds can sometimes act as a good example of the win probability if nothing else goes wrong during the game. However  the only problem I have with the strategy is numbers of selected game. In making my 1x2 win selection I prefer  going for just 2 games that would result  to a 2.0 odd or a maximum of 4 game selection. The longer the games the more it becomes difficult to win, but on a general note this strategy would work best especially the selection from different leagues which makes it more fun.

[Adbitco]

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5"

It's under 1.5 odds for the team to win, I'm not going for goals

What a moment are you talking about single matches?
If yes then your choice of selection is good though. For a multiplier then it's a very hard game to win, but however I wish you good luck. Maybe I might start joining you   .

[_act_]

For a multiplier then it's a very hard game to win, but however I wish you good luck. Maybe I might start joining you   .

I do not think going for 2 or 3 matches as multiplier is bad. I have used it very well and the result is good. But the problem that most people have is that they may not go for the right matches. But going for more than 2 or 3 matches is very risky. I have tried 5 several times before and I lost the bet than going for 2 or 3 matches. I mostly go for just 2 matches. I also noticed that when I bet less often, I win more than when I bet often.

[Adbitco]

For a multiplier then it's a very hard game to win, but however I wish you good luck. Maybe I might start joining you   .

I do not think going for 2 or 3 matches as multiplier is bad. I have used it very well and the result is good. But the problem that most people have is that they may not go for the right matches. But going for more than 2 or 3 matches is very risky. I have tried 5 several times before and I lost the bet than going for 2 or 3 matches. I mostly go for just 2 matches. I also noticed that when I bet less often, I win more than when I bet often.

It's bad anyway but we can't give exactly what game gonna play as you know most times it seems so hard to determine the games how it plays or how the results may come out. To me I prefer picking over 0.5 and 1.5 but since op already made it clear he isn't going for goals instead winning then fine.

[_act_]

It's bad anyway but we can't give exactly what game gonna play as you know most times it seems so hard to determine the games how it plays or how the results may come out. To me I prefer picking over 0.5 and 1.5 but since op already made it clear he isn't going for goals instead winning then fine.

Over 0.5 is not a good odd. It can be 1.01 to 1.05 odds which is very small. But I guess what you mean is over 0.5 in first half or over 0.5 in second half. Over 0.5 second half has almost the same odd as over 1.5 fulltime, but the odd for over 0.5 first half is slightly higher than both.

[Jawhead999]

Although you always bet the favorite, but all of them aren't safe especially those three matches:

Real Madrid draw 2 from 3 match.
Napoli was lose against mediocre team.
Both Arsenal and Brighton are in shape.

Make sure you don't bet in Chelsea and Manchester United match or you will regret.

But, let's see how it goes, maybe luck will be on your side in this week.

[shield132]

My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

[noormcs5]

I have done this kind of experiment in the past and failed. Hopefully, you'll succeed so you can prove that this method works. Now, I'm more interested in betting on high odds, like 2.50 but not over 4.00. I haven't been able to draw a conclusion yet since I haven't consistently used this strategy; it’s just side betting when I feel bored or want some extra action. My main strategy is still focused on odds of at least 2.00, so I’ll aim to take 100% of my winnings.

Following this thread.

On which sports do you bet ? I mostly follow cricket and it is hard to get over 2.0 odds bets. There are many bets under 2 like 1.4, 1.7 etc and they are good to take them and win.
When you take the bet over two, don't you think that the chances of winning decreases considerably as the bookies will not give you the higher odds on the favourite teams ? And betting on weak teams may increase your odds but will decrease you chances of winning.

[Adbitco]

It's bad anyway but we can't give exactly what game gonna play as you know most times it seems so hard to determine the games how it plays or how the results may come out. To me I prefer picking over 0.5 and 1.5 but since op already made it clear he isn't going for goals instead winning then fine.

Over 0.5 is not a good odd. It can be 1.01 to 1.05 odds which is very small. But I guess what you mean is over 0.5 in first half or over 0.5 in second half. Over 0.5 second half has almost the same odd as over 1.5 fulltime, but the odd for over 0.5 first half is slightly higher than both.

Over 0.5 is betting options and the odd is around 1.01 to 1.10 odds, while over 1.5 is about 1.20-1.30 odd. Most of the time over 0.5 HT is above 1.5 odds to 1.80 odds, while Over 1 is almost 2.5 odds where as over in FT the odds aren't the same. The FH usually have lot of higher odds this depends on the gambling site you are using as there odds aren't the same it differs from every casinos.

[Jaycoinz]

Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues

@stompix, Good experiment.
I want to also take part in those six games, I like the challenge, I want to see what happens with low odds, Honestly, there are some choices you make that have a good chance, but the game is still a game, on the field will determine everything.


I will post my predictions, shortly after I finish the ritual.

Whether we are of the same mind for this bet or otherwise, give me a few hours.

My bet is for six games.

- Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).
- FC Barcelona vs. Real Valla dollid= result (Barcelona).
- SSC Napoli vs. Parma Calcio 1913= result (Parma Calcio).
- FC Bayern Munich vs. SC Freiburg = result (Bayern Munich).
- Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Heidenheim= result (Heidenheim).
- Arsenal FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC= result (Arsenal).

Hmm, this is really an interesting pick my friend and I think I like it a lot although am not sure for the Dortmund game but I think I see the reason why, their opponent is actually doing very well and they seem to play a very powerful football even with their game yesterday and for the Napoli game well I couldn't agree more just that I feel its likely going to be a draw atleast because I know Napoli are in very deep shit and their form is absolutely down and I really don't expect them to win but hey it's football who can be sure of anything?

[ajiz138]

A good betting odds experiment I would like to know the outcome of.

Honestly, in parlay betting it is a bit more difficult even though we choose the favorite team especially more sometimes there is a surprise where the favorite team does not win, I am not brave enough for more than 5 matches to parlay.

Except for single bets, this is still possible for me to do actually every week, often choosing odds of 1.5 with a single bet of 5 different matches, the results are 3 wins 2 losses, not all of them will lose.

[Charles-Tim]

Real Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompie= result (draw).

This is not an easy pick at all. I guess that Real Madrid could win this match. It is an home match for Real Madrid. Real Madrid has only played just one home match this season with Real Valladolid and it won the match with 3 goals. Real Bestie drew away match with Deportivo Alaves but this is not Real Madrid.