Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues, up 6.3% since start!

[Fredomago]

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

All those factors are important as you can control your emotions once you established your strategy, those kinds of picks most of the time are based with detail information about those teams or squad that will be competing, knowing their capabilities gives you hints that you might use to select which games to bet and what are those parlay that will give you decent opportunity to win, though small odds when putting together and if luck permits then it's  a decent benefits.

[hedgeh0g]

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

Yes, but this requires long experience and a good understanding of the game in which we are going to do this. I still prefer high odds for one match in football or hockey, in which the odds are about 3 or higher, and I start thinking whether the underdog team will win 1 of 3 matches so that my bet will be in the black. If the answer is yes, then I place my bet. Of course, all this is very imaginary, but everyone chooses what to start from, I like these bets. And I don’t really like bets like OP’s and I don’t place them, in the end, everyone chooses their own strategy.

[summonerrk]

And again if luck will not be on your side, whatever kind of research and assessment that you it will still burned your selections, though I also take this kind of parlay, trying to look for teams that have history of not making points and try to see the opponents defense, if things works on my analysis then I'll take 3-4 games and hope that luck will permits that selection to win, no guarantee but giving the possibilities that risk still involve then it will easy to move forward whatever the outcome might be.

Gambling success was never really dependent on the gambler’s expertise, experience or skill. Although have those expertise could give you an added advantage even though it doesn’t really guarantee your success, it’s still very important to have the experience under your sleeves, because luck won’t do all the work for you, do the best you can, keep your fingers crossed and hope luck is in your side and things work according to your predictions. Because skill and luck works together, and without both, failure is sure.

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

And I have a rather skeptical view, because I think that professionals in the bookmaker's office calculate the odds better than ordinary bettors, and it is difficult to beat them. And if someone manages to do this constantly, then the bookmaker will begin to behave dishonestly, constantly walking to the successful betting fan.
I have heard many stories about account blocking, as well as about the fact that the withdrawal of funds was very difficult.
Therefore, you should play only on large, proven bookmakers.

[Tungbulu]

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter. Problems like over gambling and knowing exactly when to call it a quit. When a gambler masters the act of self control and risk management, he greatly limits his chances of getting addicted to gambling as he’ll be able to make more responsible gambling decisions.

[stompix]

~

Can you explain what strategy is "hidden" in this table? And by the way, from what I see - 10 teams are profitable, 10 are unprofitable. It seems that there are more profitable teams in the top, but not so much to make a profit from this or to be sure that this will be the case every year.
In certain years, such declines as those recently seen by Napoli, Bayern, Liverpool would ruin a player using such a strategy, wouldn't they?

The strategy is going with your team no matter the odds, of course with the weaker team you will fail and with the middle ones you might have a nasty surprise, but top teams have been on the edge of being profitable for years. The biggest factor thing is that this constant betting works in your favor if the teams constantly win the bets go slightly down but if they start losing your bets suddenly have higher value, you still lose -1 but you gain more, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern are two teams that have been constantly in the green for the last two seasons, of course, the results from this start being biased once you use multiple teams in a league because, well obviously!

There are even variations of those one pound bet
- playing the martingale on teams, again taking advantage of the odds increasing in case you lose (wouldn't recommend)
- in horse racing going for a jockey trainer's age of the horse for example betting on Haggas and his horses on all weather is right now at -113 but still positive for turf.
- I don't watch NBA so I didn't understand but something about handicaps over +2, again backed by some 3 years of logs

[Bushdark]

I agree with you, but what I have learned from my experience in betting over the years is that we must adhere to all these rules by approaching bets responsibly, observing many of the rules that are often mentioned, such as money management, stopping bets if we feel tilted after several losses. As for the technical part, I recommend doing a thorough analysis of each match, and also thinking about the odds, whether they give us an advantage in this game and how big. Because sometimes you can still find games when the odds are good and you need to bet on them.

I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter. Problems like over gambling and knowing exactly when to call it a quit. When a gambler masters the act of self control and risk management, he greatly limits his chances of getting addicted to gambling as he’ll be able to make more responsible gambling decisions.

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

[Tungbulu]

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

[Fortify]

It all started from this thread  with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win  (odds from Stake  )
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

The trouble is you're only making small amounts, say 10% of the total you are risking, each time you bet. However you stand to lose 100% of your bet if you lose. Unless you think you can beat the analytics of the bookmaker, those companies that make hundreds of millions a year profit from accurately predicting outcomes over the long term, then there it sounds appealing but it really is not. Even if you were to win 10 attempts in a row to double up your money, you only need a chain link of two mistakes or cases where the odds go against you, to lose the initial 100% of your capital that is being risked. These freak odds happen more often than not, but can also stack against all your profits accumulated so far.

[Makus]

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win  (odds from Stake  )

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5" so anything less than that could lead to possible lost. But then I can't be sure because most times these teams are crazy. What i does is that, I often choose teams that score above 'Over 1.5, and 2.5' with this it's very much easier at least picked two to four matches. But still the same if you are pretty much cool with your selection then let's watch how it goes.

In which ever way you try to predict it, gambling is by luck. Your own prediction may be riskier than his own strategy. Because if he plays under 1.5odd, the risk may be lesser to your own. while in other words your over 1.8 or 2.5 like 4 or 5 selection may likely be riskier than his own lesser odd because the higher the accumulation with high odd the more chances of losing over win. But that doesn't mean that small odd doesn't burst ticket. You may just play a single stake of 2.5 odd with a reasonable amount instead of multiplying risk.

Well everyone can go for their preference, going for 2.5 odds and lesson the game selection can also be a good idea especially when these selections are made on teams that often scores  more goal. A team like Manchester City could be trusted to score more goal and they have been making a over 2.5 goals in most of their games. But I prefer the ones proposal to make a series of small odds  selection like 0.5 or 1.5and sum it up to a reasonable  odd. Though the more selection the more chances of losing the ticket  but since the odds are low and the predictions is a bit easy to be played by the both teams, we'll hope they keep to their form and make the predictions come true.

[Tungbulu]

Well everyone can go for their preference, going for 2.5 odds and lesson the game selection can also be a good idea especially when these selections are made on teams that often scores  more goal. A team like Manchester City could be trusted to score more goal and they have been making a over 2.5 goals in most of their games. But I prefer the ones proposal to make a series of small odds  selection like 0.5 or 1.5and sum it up to a reasonable  odd. Though the more selection the more chances of losing the ticket  but since the odds are low and the predictions is a bit easy to be played by the both teams, we'll hope they keep to their form and make the predictions come true.

Sometimes even the surest odds could just disappoint you, doesn’t matter how many games you’ve got in your selection, it’s doesn’t increase of reduce your chances cos at the end what you need is luck. I’ve tried several strategies in games and odds selections, just like you said, I tried picking games with 2.5 odds, I actually picked just two games with both 2.5 odds, the first option was for both teams to conceal at 1 goal each, and the other to score 2.5 goals in the whole 90 minutes of the match. Th funniest aspect of this was that, these both teams were the the highest goals scorers in their various leagues, and i staked high on the game with a much assurance that the game would play in my favour but the second game ended in 1:0, this was totally unbelievable but what could I do, I already lost. The experience taught me that regardless of whatever strategy you use, your success still depends on luck.

[Fredomago]

Well everyone can go for their preference, going for 2.5 odds and lesson the game selection can also be a good idea especially when these selections are made on teams that often scores  more goal. A team like Manchester City could be trusted to score more goal and they have been making a over 2.5 goals in most of their games. But I prefer the ones proposal to make a series of small odds  selection like 0.5 or 1.5and sum it up to a reasonable  odd. Though the more selection the more chances of losing the ticket  but since the odds are low and the predictions is a bit easy to be played by the both teams, we'll hope they keep to their form and make the predictions come true.

Sometimes even the surest odds could just disappoint you, doesn’t matter how many games you’ve got in your selection, it’s doesn’t increase of reduce your chances cos at the end what you need is luck. I’ve tried several strategies in games and odds selections, just like you said, I tried picking games with 2.5 odds, I actually picked just two games with both 2.5 odds, the first option was for both teams to conceal at 1 goal each, and the other to score 2.5 goals in the whole 90 minutes of the match. Th funniest aspect of this was that, these both teams were the the highest goals scorers in their various leagues, and i staked high on the game with a much assurance that the game would play in my favour but the second game ended in 1:0, this was totally unbelievable but what could I do, I already lost. The experience taught me that regardless of whatever strategy you use, your success still depends on luck.

Influence of luck indeed as even how good you assess and analyze the potential outcome if luck is not in your side it will ruined your combination, though it's still good to have that kind of startegy as you have basis to whatever bets you take, from that point of view, you can simply quit and accept your defeats and not to become aggressive and add more deposit to re-try your entry and lose more money.

More on how you do your analysis and how you manage both your time and finances while executing your plan strategy.

[stompix]

Time for round 3
Really bad picks today in my opinion

8 matches, very low odds, possible returns for a single bet of just 10.76
Multiplier is also disappointing, for 8 matches just x10.50.
Really low odds in some of those might want you to throw them from the section, especially with Liverpool being there again.
Anyhow, here they are:

Even if you were to win 10 attempts in a row to double up your money, you only need a chain link of two mistakes or cases where the odds go against you, to lose the initial 100% of your capital that is being risked. These freak odds happen more often than not, but can also stack against all your profits accumulated so far.

I know that don't think that this is an experiment to prove the tactic would succeed, I've said it from the start it's more like a warning against things you take for granted to happen just because of those abysmal odds so I'm fully aware of it.

But, there is fun also in doing it!

[Zackz5000]

This is what I do almost at every New beginning of the season i try to select matches with relatively low odd expecially when the team is at home playing an average team with a big odd sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but as time processed I discovered that odd is just a number any team can win a game irrespective of the odd given to them for I have seen severally where team with bigger odd number still come to win the team with a lower odd so it this case I don't think there is any need trying to do some experiment is better to go ahead a play which ever team you are move to play if you win you win if you loss you loss that's how bet works for there is no way you can be winning all the time at same time losing all the time.

[KTChampions]

Can you explain what strategy is "hidden" in this table? And by the way, from what I see - 10 teams are profitable, 10 are unprofitable. It seems that there are more profitable teams in the top, but not so much to make a profit from this or to be sure that this will be the case every year.
In certain years, such declines as those recently seen by Napoli, Bayern, Liverpool would ruin a player using such a strategy, wouldn't they?

The strategy is going with your team no matter the odds, of course with the weaker team you will fail and with the middle ones you might have a nasty surprise, but top teams have been on the edge of being profitable for years. The biggest factor thing is that this constant betting works in your favor if the teams constantly win the bets go slightly down but if they start losing your bets suddenly have higher value, you still lose -1 but you gain more, Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern are two teams that have been constantly in the green for the last two seasons, of course, the results from this start being biased once you use multiple teams in a league because, well obviously!
~

Ok, i got it. But I don't believe that it works, maybe there are some verified statistics on this matter? This is hard to believe, as it would mean that bookmakers systematically make mistakes when choosing odds (while I have seen studies showing that they guess outcomes with an accuracy of 1%), and when evaluating the favorite. Usually, the majority of the margin is taken from the favorite's odds, but if this strategy works, it turns out that this is exactly where (where the largest cash flow flows) they are wrong.

In any case, I am following this topic with interest.

[swogerino]

Time for round 3
Really bad picks today in my opinion

8 matches, very low odds, possible returns for a single bet of just 10.76
Multiplier is also disappointing, for 8 matches just x10.50.
Really low odds in some of those might want you to throw them from the section, especially with Liverpool being there again.
Anyhow, here they are:

Even if you were to win 10 attempts in a row to double up your money, you only need a chain link of two mistakes or cases where the odds go against you, to lose the initial 100% of your capital that is being risked. These freak odds happen more often than not, but can also stack against all your profits accumulated so far.

I know that don't think that this is an experiment to prove the tactic would succeed, I've said it from the start it's more like a warning against things you take for granted to happen just because of those abysmal odds so I'm fully aware of it.

But, there is fun also in doing it!

There is only one problem when choosing well known teams and that is rarely so many teams win in a single parlay, these games can hit you really hard if you happen to put a good stake to the parlay and the parlay to lose. I know for fun it can be a nice experiment as I can follow these games or some of them for this upcoming weekend and try a good 1 dollar stake in IDR which is near 16.000 IDR and can give you good money to enjoy yourself and keep your self entertaining in betting other parlays with the money you can win.

A well done to you in searching the games with low odds and parlaying them together as most time personally I keep losing because I am not patient enough to wait and do research so I just go with whatever live and upcoming event is thrown at me by the casinos where I play.

[Alphakilo]

I think the most important rule in gambling is risk and emotion management, when a gambler learns to manage risks and most importantly their emotions while gambling, they’ll be able to avoid a lot of problems gamblers encounter.

A person who gambles with a proper plan for managing the risks that is involved in gambling will inadvertently have a messed emotion. If you as a gambler can set realistic expectations in the amount of risk that you know you can handle then you are more than half way through with handling your emotions.

There is hardly anyone that can get rich quick through gambling. There is hardly anyone that can hit the jackpot on their first game. There is also hardly anyone who can double their money in order to meet a financial or personal need through gambling. Anyone who thinks otherwise is setting themselves up for an emotional rollercoaster.

 

[Makus]

Sometimes even the surest odds could just disappoint you, doesn’t matter how many games you’ve got in your selection, it’s doesn’t increase of reduce your chances cos at the end what you need is luck. I’ve tried several strategies in games and odds selections, just like you said, I tried picking games with 2.5 odds, I actually picked just two games with both 2.5 odds, the first option was for both teams to conceal at 1 goal each, and the other to score 2.5 goals in the whole 90 minutes of the match. Th funniest aspect of this was that, these both teams were the the highest goals scorers in their various leagues, and i staked high on the game with a much assurance that the game would play in my favour but the second game ended in 1:0, this was totally unbelievable but what could I do, I already lost. The experience taught me that regardless of whatever strategy you use, your success still depends on luck.

You are absolutely correct, wining in gambling depends on luck and nothing  more, but sometimes due to the fact that we make analysis by spectating the previous performance  of the club and making predictions, we set our minds in thinking we are also factors in making it possible  for our predictions to result to win or sometimes we take the credit  of making the right selection. Well ots all luck and we know that, but for fun sake, we might want to believe  its in our making. Today I made a game selection  of which individual  odds are below 1.6 odds yet the outcome was loss due to Manchester City draw with inter i predicted city  to win the game but it ended up nill goals. However that was the only odd selection whereas others did go the towards my prediction. And that explains that luck is still the major determinant of one's success in gambling.

[hedgeh0g]

This is what I do almost at every New beginning of the season i try to select matches with relatively low odd expecially when the team is at home playing an average team with a big odd sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but as time processed I discovered that odd is just a number any team can win a game irrespective of the odd given to them for I have seen severally where team with bigger odd number still come to win the team with a lower odd so it this case I don't think there is any need trying to do some experiment is better to go ahead a play which ever team you are move to play if you win you win if you loss you loss that's how bet works for there is no way you can be winning all the time at same time losing all the time.

I would not advise betting on a small coefficient, because sooner or later the team with a large coefficient will win it, it just takes time. I try to focus on other things, for example, I would rather make fewer bets, but they will be with a thorough analysis. Or, for example, it is better to bet only a few times a year, but to be in the win, because in these matches we were confident. And of course it is better to avoid matches in which we doubt or have a borderline decision. In any case, in order to understand whether we are a winning gyroc or not, many years must pass and a huge number of bets must be made.

[viljy]

It's funny, right now I'm conducting the same experiment as TS, but with fewer bets, for only three matches. Before, I used the reverse strategy: a lot of small bets on weak teams or a draw. So, the previous strategy allows you to at least stay with your own, despite the fact that most bets are unsuccessful, there are very large winnings, which actually help out. It's kind of weird, though. There are always, or almost always, such unexpected results. Could this be a consequence of match-fixing? It is hardly possible to find out...

[Victorybit1]

My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

Odds really mean nothing, people think that small odds are always going to go according their prediction but gambling isn't really like that, those odds are deceiving, a team with 10 odds can beat a team having 1.2 odds or even less, sometimes the bookmakers use this as a trap to entice you as the gambler. Small odds has a high chance of winning but it's not hundred percent sure, thats why it's advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose