Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues

[stompix]

~

Ok, i got it. But I don't believe that it works, maybe there are some verified statistics on this matter? This is hard to believe, as it would mean that bookmakers systematically make mistakes when choosing odds (while I have seen studies showing that they guess outcomes with an accuracy of 1%), and when evaluating the favorite.

Bookies are still humans, they don't pose a magic wand that would enable them to make all the odds in their favor, plus no matter what the bookies want if bets come flowing against their predictions they have nothing to do but change them or risk losing a ton, and they don't take gambles, they are doing risk hedging with those.
It's nearly impossible mathematically for all teams to lose on a single $1 on them, this will take more luck than getting all matches' exact score, at one point one team will do better than the odds,and gain, bookie shave no answer if teams like Madrid or Bayer keep winning.

Madrid won 29 games, lost 1 draw 8, they had an average 1.40 on betting, enough to make them profitable, 1:28 would have been enough.
Same for Bayer, they didn't lose a single match won 28 draw 6, a at 1.20 odds it would have been a gain.
All the data is on oddsportal, you can check all the odds they had prior to games there.

In any case, I am following this topic with interest.

Well it is different since I'm following odds, not teams so I doubt it will be positive, it's also bit late but I will think of tracking top teams in another topic also I have all the data from oddsportal anyhow.

That aside, Bayern and Liverpool are demolishing their adversary right now so at least two matches out of 8 to date.

[Fredomago]

My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

Odds really mean nothing, people think that small odds are always going to go according their prediction but gambling isn't really like that, those odds are deceiving, a team with 10 odds can beat a team having 1.2 odds or even less, sometimes the bookmakers use this as a trap to entice you as the gambler. Small odds has a high chance of winning but it's not hundred percent sure, thats why it's advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose

You are right, most of the time it's a trap though there are gamblers who understand the risk and willing to take it as they trust there guts in finding those value bets and bet on it as parlay, one mistake from your selections then everything will be messed up, and it's just seems so easy to pick low odds selections but once upset take place surely your bet will lose.

[Wakate]

My suggestion for you is to close your eyes and ignore the odds. Believe me, many times odds mean nothing. You have to do research before each game, you have to check their past head-to-head matches, you have to consider where is the game going, in what shape is each team and their players, and how important is the win for each of them, who has to lose more by losing and who doesn't get heavily affected by it. Sports betting is a science for me, like math.

You can make an experiment but believe me, you won't be in profit with that approach. Forget odds, start watching sports actively and do deep research. I have bought many tickets with odds higher than 2.0

Odds really mean nothing, people think that small odds are always going to go according their prediction but gambling isn't really like that, those odds are deceiving, a team with 10 odds can beat a team having 1.2 odds or even less, sometimes the bookmakers use this as a trap to entice you as the gambler. Small odds has a high chance of winning but it's not hundred percent sure, thats why it's advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose

You are right, most of the time it's a trap though there are gamblers who understand the risk and willing to take it as they trust there guts in finding those value bets and bet on it as parlay, one mistake from your selections then everything will be messed up, and it's just seems so easy to pick low odds selections but once upset take place surely your bet will lose.

Sometimes low odds matches can not save of from winning big in gambling. I have tried it many times and I was disappointed to know that many of the matches ended in big regrets. We need to choose matches based on our findings and what we think about the match. Other people's opinion can really help us a lot but not everytime. One just have to forecast games and make the bets waiting for the outcome to click if we are that fortunate. Sometimes cashing out before the game ends whether in winning or loses can also help sometime when we are not that certain about the outcome of the match especially when it's the last match of the game. This can be a tough decision but I have benefited many times from this.

[DaNNy001]

It all started from this thread  with a gambler considering on betting exactly on 1.50 odds 3 times a week.
I thought this would be an inclusive experiment since it would be about fixed odds and cherry-picked matches, pretty much gambling on what matches to gamble, which leads to a lot of bias in the results, then, how about betting on all football matches from 5 leagues, only on the favorite under 1.5 to win, would those "sure" lol, prove to be easy money or an easy money pit that grows with each week played? My experience with betting on the favorite in horse racing tells me the latter, but who knows?

The experiment is pretty simple,
- Each Thursday-Friday I pick all matches from 5 leagues in which a team is under 1.5 to win  (odds from Stake  )
- A bet is considered at 1 unit, so a loss is -1 , a win at 1.25 is +0.25
- The game will stop at -100, if we reach that point I think it's obvious the strategy is flawed to the max

Fast forward, Round 1!
LE:
Because too many are confused about the screenshot,no, it's not a multiplier, I just added them to save space.
Each bet is on an individual match!


6 matches
Total Stake Est. Payout
6.0            7.98

Update:
Since there is so much talk about multipliers I will track this too, for the 6 games above: Total Odds 5.59.
This will be done independently from the single bets.

Round 1 results
- Individual bets balance +0.27
- Multiplier balance -1

Betting on low odds are the worst and I hate them because they are the ones that have caused more damage in the past, people think if they accumulate games with odds less than 1.20 it gives them a hundred percent chance of winning, I don't bet below 3 odds, I'm not saying it's a wrong idea if you do it's just my preference and experience with the system. Understanding that playing single games of 2 to 3 odds has a higher chance of winning would make you have a different approach with this, a lot of gamblers might not agree with this system

[viljy]

It's funny, right now I'm conducting the same experiment as TS, but with fewer bets, for only three matches.

Well, the experiment with the "reliable bets" strategy gave the expected result - all three bets won. Specifically, these were betting on the matches: Real Madrid vs. Espanyol, Liverpool vs. Bournemouth, Werder Bremen vs. Bayern Munich. So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

I have noticed and observed on this common act from some gamblers, if they are playing a bet with small ods, they are going to make numerous games selections because they know that they are nearly close to the accuracy of those games selections with smaller ods, while those that do go for big ods will only make a fewer selection because they know the chances of wining the bet in smaller and couldn't afford increasing on the numbers of games, because the more they do do, the lesser their winning chances as well, so most of them will prefer between a one to four games selections because of the ods.

[Charles-Tim]

Betting on low odds are the worst and I hate them because they are the ones that have caused more damage in the past, people think if they accumulate games with odds less than 1.20 it gives them a hundred percent chance of winning, I don't bet below 3 odds, I'm not saying it's a wrong idea if you do it's just my preference and experience with the system. Understanding that playing single games of 2 to 3 odds has a higher chance of winning would make you have a different approach with this, a lot of gamblers might not agree with this system

Are you referring to casino games when you mentioned that you can not bet on less than 3 odds? I have gone for 3 odds always on casinos but that is different on sport betting sites. I also think you are not referring to parley. I prefer to go for 1.25 odds to 2 odds if it is football betting. I have found go 3 odds to be very risky and the chance to win such bet is very low.

[Samlucky O]

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

[stompix]

Time for round 3
Really bad picks today in my opinion

I knew it, and yes again I picked an extra game from the next round which will be discarded

Liverpool +1.30
Real Madrid +1.17
Bayern +1.37
Bayer -1
Atalanta +x
Monaco +1.38
PSG -1

PSG and Bayer shame on you!
Atalanta will play late at night, no way I'm seeing that game, and will probably update the final standings with next week's picks as well, so temporarily before that
Total bets 7, Wins 5.22, Total loss 1.78 before one match at 1.46 so no matter what it's a losing round again!

I just took a glimpse to next round and it's again nightmare fuel, Leipzig and Arsenal...god no!
I'm starting to see a pattern here and my take is on a 5-10% loss for this experiment, close to slot crappy RTP!

So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

No, it works simply because you had luck in choosing those 3 out of x.
As some sort of Trivia, whoever bet on just draws on Ligue1 yesterday would have ended with an 80 Multiplier, so by this assumption betting on just draws is a win..., nope!

[fikrett]

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

I totally agree there.
If it were that easy, everybody would try to do it, but you need lots, and I mean lots of connections, experts, knowledge, expertise yourself, and much, much more.
Though, it would be a good goal to achieve some day

[Fredomago]

Sometimes low odds matches can not save of from winning big in gambling. I have tried it many times and I was disappointed to know that many of the matches ended in big regrets.

Yup, not just you but for sure most of gamblers experienced the same, thinking that betting with low odd either parlay or single will give them decent chance of winning, but upset always present when you are in gambling right?

We need to choose matches based on our findings and what we think about the match. Other people's opinion can really help us a lot but not everytime. One just have to forecast games and make the bets waiting for the outcome to click if we are that fortunate.

It helps but not an assurance for sure, using it as basis to anaylze the game and see if you've got the same findings but betting blindly and follow them directly that's something that really tough if you loseyour parlay.

Sometimes cashing out before the game ends whether in winning or loses can also help sometime when we are not that certain about the outcome of the match especially when it's the last match of the game. This can be a tough decision but I have benefited many times from this.

If you got that chance and you manage to cashout, that's a sure thing that you've got something after your bet.

[viljy]

So the strategy of "reliable bets" makes sense, provided at least a superficial analysis of the teams, of course.

No, it works simply because you had luck in choosing those 3 out of x.
As some sort of Trivia, whoever bet on just draws on Ligue1 yesterday would have ended with an 80 Multiplier, so by this assumption betting on just draws is a win..., nope!

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose. The more bets there are, the greater the chance of surprises, even if the odds correspond to an almost risk-free bet.
Why can't a bet on a draw be a win? I sometimes placed a lot of bets only on draws. I lost most of the bets. But in the end, I still found myself in profit. I admit that it could just be luck.

[Dewi Aries]

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

Yes, that is the best way or a more reasonable way to be able to make real profits in the gambling industry, namely by building your own casino and you become the dealer who manages all the systems in the games provided. But yes, I also understand what you mean by saying is always much easier than doing, but it is still possible for rich people who have a lot of money. Another thing is if you really want to continue to advance as a gambler and not become a dealer for some reason, then make sure that you have good skills in taking care of yourself and your finances, and also make sure that your expectations always look realistic in any type of game.

[stompix]

So, a much needed update.
Atalanta lost but at the same time, Bayer scored in the 94th minute, I had them as a loss to suddenly turn green.
Due to a packed schedule, I missed two wins on this round in La Liga, they will be counted separately.

After this the round ended with:
Total bets 7, Wins 6.64, Loss 0.34

So next 9 matches till the end of the week excluding Real and Barcelona who have already won at lower odds.

Had to split the screenshot too long to zoom out:



9 bets, singlematches possible win is 12.24/ multi is 15.59.
The two previous results will be added to the total cause it was my fault for not adding them not the fault of the "strategy".

[SmartGold01]

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose. The more bets there are, the greater the chance of surprises, even if the odds correspond to an almost risk-free bet.
Why can't a bet on a draw be a win? I sometimes placed a lot of bets only on draws. I lost most of the bets. But in the end, I still found myself in profit. I admit that it could just be luck.

Indeed you are lucky because to me when I placed bet on draws it surely ends up the other way round were it would be 1:0 or 2:1 or 3:1 and 3-2. So instead I mostly choose either Over or Under, Home or Away sometimes first half under to win or over. I mostly ends up with it, so picking draws is likewise risky to bet on.

[stompix]

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose.

Yeah but why choose those 3 and not the other 3, you went for Liverpool vs. Bournemouth at 1.30, and quoted it as a sure win but Liverpool lost a 1.34 sure bet home while hosting Nottingham at 1.22. I'm quite interested in this, what would make the second one far less riskier than the first bet?
I see this constantly in this experiment matches go wrong at the lowest odds, and to be hoenst I would have placed bets far easier on greater odds, For example on Bayern and Barcelona despite being 1.8, no way I would have actually taken a gamble on Atalanta at 1.4 or bet on Arsenal, no, not even thinking of!

[Samlucky O]

The best way to make money from gambling is when we take less risk to win bigger amount of money staking small funds.
I know the probability of us winning might be low but it is better to be safe in gambling and retain some capital than to become greedy ama loss bets consecutively. Most of my sport bets are more of different team with small odds because this is my pattern and strategy to make money for me, not going for bigger odds with high risks which can make me loss money without any reward.
Once we have a good and profitable style of gambling on sports bets, it is better we continue in such pattern of gambling.

If you ask me, I’ll say the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own, since we already know that the odds are always in favor of the house, so the way to stay in profit via gambling is to be the house, this way you don’t get to risk anything at all, you’re always sure of making profits. I know the expenses involved in managing a casino is pretty much, as well as taxation and other levies, but nonetheless you don’t have to worry about risking your money or fear of losses or getting addicted, since gamblers lose more often that they win, that’s an advantage for you because the more people lose, the more you gain, so rather than being at the giving end, it’s more profitable to be at the receiving end, cos that way, you’re sure of everyday profits.

I agree with your opinion that the best way to profit from gambling is by owning a casino of your own. But have you considered the amount to start up a casino of your own? It is always easy to think of such an idea but the finance to Carry on such operation is the problem. If owning of casino is easy almost everyone or %20-50 of the word will have own a Casino. Another thing is having the zeal to continue for a longer time horizon and this can only be possible if such person has a good managerial skill. If not it will just be a thing of hurriedly in and hurriedly out.

Yes, that is the best way or a more reasonable way to be able to make real profits in the gambling industry, namely by building your own casino and you become the dealer who manages all the systems in the games provided. But yes, I also understand what you mean by saying is always much easier than doing, but it is still possible for rich people who have a lot of money.

Being rich doesn't even guarantee owning a casino, atleast you must be well knowledgeable and have Passion about the kind of business you are about to embark on Before you can succeed, otherwise you might Start up so easily and end up suddenly. This has been the problem of most people who started but couldn't profit from it. For me I think no matter how profitable casino business is, not everyone can do it despite how rich some people can be.

 

[Hirose UK]

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose.

Yeah but why choose those 3 and not the other 3, you went for Liverpool vs. Bournemouth at 1.30, and quoted it as a sure win but Liverpool lost a 1.34 sure bet home while hosting Nottingham at 1.22. I'm quite interested in this, what would make the second one far less riskier than the first bet?
I see this constantly in this experiment matches go wrong at the lowest odds, and to be hoenst I would have placed bets far easier on greater odds, For example on Bayern and Barcelona despite being 1.8, no way I would have actually taken a gamble on Atalanta at 1.4 or bet on Arsenal, no, not even thinking of!

Yes, at football that always has surprises, especially for the English League where often the lower teams can beat the top team but all this can't always happen because surprises can't be found every week and we are just someone who takes the risk to bet so when the favorite team loses then we have to accept it.
All opportunities are always good in the favorite team but it would be much riskier to take all the top teams from each league and make it multi bet, it would be better to take it in one particular League and all slip are taken from several team in one League which is clear never exceed the limit like betting with 5 to 10 team at once.
Every gambler must have experienced condition like that where taking favorite team that has an advantage on paper but at one time the team experienced failure and embarrassing defeat, that why I always say about not focusing too much on the superior team because in football anything can happen even though it is an unreasonable result.

[Tmoonz]

You can look at it from your point of view. And you're right. One may wonder why I placed bets on these three matches? The risks were practically minimal. Well, I won't deny that if I place bets on, say, 7 matches, then maybe one or even two bets can lose.

Yeah but why choose those 3 and not the other 3, you went for Liverpool vs. Bournemouth at 1.30, and quoted it as a sure win but Liverpool lost a 1.34 sure bet home while hosting Nottingham at 1.22. I'm quite interested in this, what would make the second one far less riskier than the first bet?
I see this constantly in this experiment matches go wrong at the lowest odds, and to be hoenst I would have placed bets far easier on greater odds, For example on Bayern and Barcelona despite being 1.8, no way I would have actually taken a gamble on Atalanta at 1.4 or bet on Arsenal, no, not even thinking of!

Yes, at football that always has surprises, especially for the English League where often the lower teams can beat the top team but all this can't always happen because surprises can't be found every week and we are just someone who takes the risk to bet so when the favorite team loses then we have to accept it.
All opportunities are always good in the favorite team but it would be much riskier to take all the top teams from each league and make it multi bet, it would be better to take it in one particular League and all slip are taken from several team in one League which is clear never exceed the limit like betting with 5 to 10 team at once.
Every gambler must have experienced condition like that where taking favorite team that has an advantage on paper but at one time the team experienced failure and embarrassing defeat, that why I always say about not focusing too much on the superior team because in football anything can happen even though it is an unreasonable result.

Surely at most times it can seem very hard to determine a winning team between that of the favorite and the opponent, sometimes most of the players in our most preferred team may not be physically fit enough to bring out their best performance which can be unknowingly to us the gambler, those players are humans like us such their body might to have enough rest but due to duty calls, they will be out and might not be on their best performance that is fatigue hence, that is one among the reasons why sometimes a team you consider to be weaker team wins the the favorite team.

[stompix]

So one match to go and this is going to be funny if Napoli wins with Monza!

Previous results after round 3:

Total results:
- Individual bets balance -1.27
- Multiplier balance -3

We have to add to this 0.4 as Barcelona and Madrid won on Wednesday and Thursday but I wasn't online to add them!

Results for the current round:

As Roma 1.42
Napoli - TBD
PSG 1.41
Monaco 1.37
Arsenal 1.19
Liverpool 1.37
Dortmund 1.27
Leipzig 1.43
Milan 1.39

One match to go but it still changes everything
9 bets, returns 10.85   +1.85.

After 4 rounds
- Individual bets balance 0.98
- Multiplier balance TBD

- Amount wagered on single bets 36
- Percentage win 2.72%

Now in Napoli wins the multi turns profitable which is going to be a surpise