Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues!

[stompix]

Time to update this for round 5:

-Napoli won, so we have a first in all matches being a win!!!! 
-We get a positive balance again for individual betting
-Believe it or not, we have a multi-win, which puts us in the green

Complete results after round 4:

- Individual bets balance +2.28
- Amount wagered on single bets 36
- Percentage win 6.3%

- Multiplier balance +12.59
- Amount wagered on single bets 4
- Percentage win 214.75%

*Note: The last multiplier could have been better if I had added Real and Barcelona to it, technically the same week, but not round, I anyhow missed the games and it would have only added 0.3 to it, it's a pain in the ass to calculate what if so I will just let it be like this.

Round 5:




I put this ticket on October 1st, yes some odds have changed but I'm not going to go through the trouble of correcting every single one of them when they exceed or go under 1.5, I like this experiment but with limits on the amount of work I have to put up with it.

[stompix]

Updating this, the worst day of all!
- Olympique draw 1-1 at 1.25 odds
- Bayer draw at 1.11 odds
- Juventus draw at 1.44 odds
- Bayern 3-3 at 1.5

I missed one match being still live but Stuttgart is being led 0-1 at 1.33.
Right now we're looking at half of the matches being a loss, the worst round ever, going into red again!

[wheelz1200]

I'm tagging to see how it plays out but always betting the favorites is something that has been tried over and over.  In the short term ypu can win a decent amount but all it takes is a good couple losses to set you too far back to come back from because of the low odds and payouts from your wins. Not a bad in and out strategy though in terms of a short term goal.  Either way good luck to you.

[stompix]

There won't be a new round this week so taking this moment for a pause, much need, especially after a disappointing round. The next games are on the 18th, I hope I won't forget to place the bets, I will not put them now since the odds will surely change, there might be injuries in the Nations League that would influence the odds and I'm not going to deal with all that!

The result after 5 rounds of playing

- Individual bets balance -1.21
- Amount wagered on single bets 46
- Percentage loss 2.63%

- Multiplier balance +11.59
- Amount wagered on single bets 1
- Percentage win 131.8%

I would say the results are as expected, I would have gone for something like a 1-3% loss too after the first rounds, the multi-win was a fluke but, yeah it's gambling, so random things are expected to happen.

[KTChampions]

There won't be a new round this week so taking this moment for a pause, much need, especially after a disappointing round. The next games are on the 18th, I hope I won't forget to place the bets, I will not put them now since the odds will surely change, there might be injuries in the Nations League that would influence he odds and I'm not going to deal with all that!

The result after 5 rounds of playing

- Individual bets balance -1.21
- Amount wagered on single bets 46
- Percentage loss 2.63%

- Multiplier balance +11.59
- Amount wagered on single bets 1
- Percentage win 131.8%

I would say the results are as expected, I would have gone for something like a 1-3% loss too after the first rounds, the multi-win was a fluke but, yeah it's gambling, so random things are expected to happen.

Nice update. I tried to find this thread manually the other day but couldn't, now I'll add it to my bookmarks.

As for the odds, if they change, they will change only by insignificant amounts, even if Haaland or another key figure gets injured tomorrow, the odds will change just a little. I've been watching this and came to this conclusion.
As for betting on games after the break for national team games, in my opinion this is a bad idea, there will be a lot of unexpected results and points lost by favorites. With your betting preferences, this will be against you.

[nelson4lov]

Updating this, the worst day of all!
- Olympique draw 1-1 at 1.25 odds
- Bayer draw at 1.11 odds
- Juventus draw at 1.44 odds
- Bayern 3-3 at 1.5

I missed one match being still live but Stuttgart is being led 0-1 at 1.33.
Right now we're looking at half of the matches being a loss, the worst round ever, going into red again!

Don't beat yourself up too much. I got rekt too by that Bayern draw. I have a very simple bias for picking Bayern that day and that's the fact that since:

• Bayern drew Leverkusen at home
• Lost to Aston Villa in the UCL for the first time in decades

After those underwhelming games, I expected them fo win even though I knew it wasn't going to be easy (Frankfurt didn't get to 3rd position playing like a mid). I saw bayern go  0-1 up and thought they'd just add more goals to their tally. Juventus too, underwhelming lately and rightly so because they always get punished with a red card.

[stompix]

As for the odds, if they change, they will change only by insignificant amounts, even if Haaland or another key figure gets injured tomorrow, the odds will change just a little. I've been watching this and came to this conclusion.
As for betting on games after the break for national team games, in my opinion this is a bad idea, there will be a lot of unexpected results and points lost by favorites. With your betting preferences, this will be against you.

I know that but the the point of the experiment is betting on odds lower than 1.5 so if I put a bet now on Bayern at 1.45 and it turns out by the 16th is 1.55 what am I going to do, scratch it? Same for ignoring now a bet of 1.55 that would turn out to be 1.50 by next Friday, it would be a pain in the ass to deal with changing odds as I would need to double check every time. I could go for SP bets but that would mean betting on everything and then eliminating the ones over, not that it would be that much work but it's no fun in it and it's prone to way too many mistakes!

Anyhow, this focuses only on the bet, not on what that bet is, devoid of all feelings, bet on everything that is under 1.5!

Don't beat yourself up too much. I got rekt too by that Bayern draw. I have a very simple bias for picking Bayern that day and that's the fact that since:

I don't care too much, I'm more annoyed because as it runs out the experiment would have been better without bets under 1.25, imagine that, but no way in hell I'm going to change it and redo all the math and the bets. As for losses, those are minimal, it's 4$ for $100!

[KTChampions]

As for the odds, if they change, they will change only by insignificant amounts, even if Haaland or another key figure gets injured tomorrow, the odds will change just a little. I've been watching this and came to this conclusion.
As for betting on games after the break for national team games, in my opinion this is a bad idea, there will be a lot of unexpected results and points lost by favorites. With your betting preferences, this will be against you.

I know that but the the point of the experiment is betting on odds lower than 1.5 so if I put a bet now on Bayern at 1.45 and it turns out by the 16th is 1.55 what am I going to do, scratch it? Same for ignoring now a bet of 1.55 that would turn out to be 1.50 by next Friday, it would be a pain in the ass to deal with changing odds as I would need to double check every time. I could go for SP bets but that would mean betting on everything and then eliminating the ones over, not that it would be that much work but it's no fun in it and it's prone to way too many mistakes!

Anyhow, this focuses only on the bet, not on what that bet is, devoid of all feelings, bet on everything that is under 1.5!
~

In my opinion, it makes no difference what the coefficient became "later". If at some point you made a bet on odds less than 1.5, then this bet satisfies the conditions of the experiment. If not, then the same logic can be applied to live bets - there, quite often, the coefficient of 1.5 turns into 2+, but at the moment when we bet, we do not know where it will change next.

I have a couple of freebets (they have a time limit to use them) and it's a real pain to pick good outcomes - I hate breaks for national team games, the whole system breaks down and the forecasting too.

[stompix]

With such a long break I almost forgot about this one, glad it was just Friday so I caught al games , 9 in total.




As always some really bad games I would not want to play usually for my tickets and some that would look way more attractive being outside the 1.5 margin, but this is what the experiment is about, no feelings just math.
So here we are round 6, nine games, multi is 16x, and total individual is just a bit over 3.

[stompix]

The round turned out to be completely the opposite of what I expected, every single match was a win, and the results after 6 rounds are a bit surprising even to me.



The result for the current round:

- Individual bets balance +3.34
- Multiplier balance +15.94

And the total stats for 6 rounds:

- Individual bets balance +2.13
- Amount wagered on single bets 55
- Percentage win 3.87%

- Multiplier balance +27.53
- Amount wagered on single bets 6
- Percentage win 458%

And now counting the fact that some leagues have only 27 games left to play like the Bundesliga then the multi bet is a win even by round 6 as even if all bets are lost it will still have a tiny positive balance, basically not enough matches left to lose to mark it as a loss, a result I wouldn't have thought possible at all.

[KTChampions]

The round turned out to be completely the opposite of what I expected, every single match was a win, and the results after 6 rounds are a bit surprising even to me.



The result for the current round:

- Individual bets balance +3.34
- Multiplier balance +15.94

And the total stats for 6 rounds:

- Individual bets balance +2.13
- Amount wagered on single bets 55
- Percentage win 3.87%

- Multiplier balance +27.53
- Amount wagered on single bets 6
- Percentage win 458%

And now counting the fact that some leagues have only 27 games left to play like the Bundesliga then the multi bet is a win even by round 6 as even if all bets are lost it will still have a tiny positive balance, basically not enough matches left to lose to mark it as a loss, a result I wouldn't have thought possible at all.

Nice round! Who would have thought that after the break for national team games, most of the favorites would show such stability.
I wanted to clarify - you made a single bet on each outcome + a multi-bet on all the outcomes on which you made a single bet, right?
The fact that you will be in the black at the end of the season (on multi-bets) is a pleasant feeling, I also recently won a big multi-bet and guaranteed a positive season 

[stompix]

I wanted to clarify - you made a single bet on each outcome + a multi-bet on all the outcomes on which you made a single bet, right?

Yeah, I do the math like that, 1 unit of betting on each game and 1 unit on the multiplier game, of all of them put together.

Round 7 is disappointing, for the first time we have only 5 matches, and as a weird coincidence even those are low odds, with 1.12 and 1.17, even the multiplier is just above 3 so really pathetic, it might turn out again a winner but as these odds it's just a no in normal gambling, for the experiment it's ok but I won't do it in normal life.

[KTChampions]

I wanted to clarify - you made a single bet on each outcome + a multi-bet on all the outcomes on which you made a single bet, right?

Yeah, I do the math like that, 1 unit of betting on each game and 1 unit on the multiplier game, of all of them put together.

Round 7 is disappointing, for the first time we have only 5 matches, and as a weird coincidence even those are low odds, with 1.12 and 1.17, even the multiplier is just above 3 so really pathetic, it might turn out again a winner but as these odds it's just a no in normal gambling, for the experiment it's ok but I won't do it in normal life.

Why don't you take a handicap of -1 if you want to get the odds closer to 1.5? By doing this (or choosing a handicap of +1/+2 etc.) you can find even 30 games with suitable odds.
I understand that psychologically a handicap bet is perceived as a completely different type of betting, but from an experimental point of view, the odds are odds and it doesn’t matter what they are based on.

[alani123]

The result in the OP is not great but it's not terrible either. I could see some people saying it's not right to compare things over such a tiny profit margin that a single defeat could overturn the entire profitablity.

Well at least till now the profitability is possible. I would say most people tend to lose money so already this is. Success. In any case I would say people need to consider the high likelyhood of losing money before holding themselves under different opinion

[stompix]

Why don't you take a handicap of -1 if you want to get the odds closer to 1.5? By doing this (or choosing a handicap of +1/+2 etc.) you can find even 30 games with suitable odds.

Because I don't want bet on this specifically, I want to prove or disprove (whatever comes out) the betting on under 1.x odds.
I could of course go for handicaps but that would invalidate the previous results as I didn't go for them from the start and the balance would have looked different, I could go for goals or for handicaps or for Asian but I wanted to keep it as simple as possible and have the time to deal with it, maybe next year I would go for all there and compare again the results but again I want to point out I'm making an experiment, it's not like I am purposely chasing an outcome here, if I end up losing 200 bets on it that's it, this is what the experiment showed and everyone should know to keep away from such strategy!

The result in the OP is not great but it's not terrible either. I could see some people saying it's not right to compare things over such a tiny profit margin that a single defeat could overturn the entire profitablity.
Well at least till now the profitability is possible.

To be honest I still doubt it, when I started my bet on this was that it would end in red, and honestly I still don't see how it could be even marginally profitable for someone to keep doing it every week and if the profitability stays under 5% that's basically bank deposit interest! 

[KTChampions]

Why don't you take a handicap of -1 if you want to get the odds closer to 1.5? By doing this (or choosing a handicap of +1/+2 etc.) you can find even 30 games with suitable odds.

Because I don't want bet on this specifically, I want to prove or disprove (whatever comes out) the betting on under 1.x odds.
I could of course go for handicaps but that would invalidate the previous results as I didn't go for them from the start and the balance would have looked different, I could go for goals or for handicaps or for Asian but I wanted to keep it as simple as possible and have the time to deal with it, maybe next year I would go for all there and compare again the results but again I want to point out I'm making an experiment, it's not like I am purposely chasing an outcome here, if I end up losing 200 bets on it that's it, this is what the experiment showed and everyone should know to keep away from such strategy!
~

Ok! It makes sense to choose a specific type of bet and stick to it throughout the season. In general, you already have quite interesting results (with a significant number of bets, you are still in the black), but perhaps here you should take into account the variability. Let's say a round when you win all 5-7 choices is almost the norm (due to low odds), but such a round does not greatly increase the overall win. But a round where most of the choices are unsuccessful will seriously damage the balance. This can be compared with the deposit graph when a player uses Martingale.

[stompix]

Round 7 is over, 5 matches all wins

The result for the current round:

- Individual bets balance +1.27
- Multiplier balance +2.05

And the total stats for 7 rounds:

- Individual bets balance +3.40
- Percentage win 5.66%

- Multiplier balance +29.58
- Percentage win 422%

Third multi, this one is obviously quite easy but still, if there are two things that might end up being highlighted by this experiment is that individual betting would be better as rolling sums or wagering requirements as the returns are below interest rates while the multi might be more rewarding for the risks although clearly inconsistent!

[swogerino]

This is considered by many the safe approach however I am afraid to say that over the long run you will hit some really nasty days like the one where almost all good teams draw their game. It can happen almost exclusively in the European major leagues and that is why I have decided to go another way, I prefer to bet the minimum bet like 0.01 cent and try to win 100 dollars or more with really big odds in very big tickets of maximum allowed games of 25 per ticket. It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

[KTChampions]

This is considered by many the safe approach however I am afraid to say that over the long run you will hit some really nasty days like the one where almost all good teams draw their game. It can happen almost exclusively in the European major leagues and that is why I have decided to go another way, I prefer to bet the minimum bet like 0.01 cent and try to win 100 dollars or more with really big odds in very big tickets of maximum allowed games of 25 per ticket. It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

This is literally what I wrote in the post above. Constant small wins are eventually erased by one bad day. That's why I also prefer big odds so that a rare win can erase all unsuccessful bets.
In your huge odds strategy, do you use small odds as components of your multiples or do you go for the big odds straight away?

P.S. stompix Congratulations on a successful round, in fact it was a round where many were seriously surprised by the results, but you turned out to be lucky.

[stompix]

It may look like you are in the right and I congratulate you for that but I know for sure that unfortunately over the long run, one or two bad weeks and boom you are at the starting point in the best case scenario or even in a big loss in the worse case scenario.

Exactly why the experiment runs for the entire year for all leagues!


Round 7, barely made it in time otherwise I would have had to pick up the results from the archive again, and again the matches look like not something you would wage on, way too many very low odds, making this look more like under 1.3 than 1.5. I said it the last time the matches were a bad pick and they all turned good so, so god knows how this one will play, as usual zero faith in it and I just keep this going for the fun of it and the end result, but for now we have a 6.95 multi and 2.23 for individual bets, less than 33% even if all win.