Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues!

[KTChampions]

Forgot about this, so this is from the last round:

Round 15
- Individual bets balance  +0.48
- Multiplier balance -1

This brings the total to:

Total after 15 rounds and 146 games

- Individual bets balance +3.08
- Multiplier balance +21.58

I need to update this with both the results from the week that ended with Monday games and the new sheet, total mess.

Up to nice thread!  

Will there be any updates? It seems you missed a couple of rounds and at the moment all the outcomes are taken into account in the available statistics? It seems the last rounds weren't too successful for the favorites and you were lucky that you missed them. But this does not affect the purity of the experiment in any way; “waiting out” bad periods in betting, whether conscious or accidental, does not affect the overall result.

[stompix]

Will there be any updates? It seems you missed a couple of rounds and at the moment all the outcomes are taken into account in the available statistics?

After I finish adding yesterday's game results, I will update this by Thursday I assume with the bets for the next incoming game.
I had a ton of work in RL and even the crypto stuff was put on hold, I haven't even bet on horses for the last week despite 3 grade 1 races in the weekend.

It seems the last rounds weren't too successful for the favorites and you were lucky that you missed them. But this does not affect the purity of the experiment in any way; “waiting out” bad periods in betting, whether conscious or accidental, does not affect the overall result.

No, the experiment will also count rounds I haven't been able to play, no matter how good or how bad they were, that's the whole point of this, betting on every single game. For the round that I missed, I still have oddsportal to check the SP betting before the game.

The only exception I made for not counting rounds was in December when just the Premier League as playing in the middle of the week and then at the end of the week there was La Liga, sorry but that was just a way to mess up to even count it as a full round with 3 divisions on the bench.

[stompix]

So, a small update here is this Friday's bet:


and god, horrendous matches, if I'm not already in red by this time this will definitely be the nail in the coffin, as soon as I saw 3 Seria games on that list I was almost willing to make a reverse bet just for lols. I finished also 2 of the remaining results and I will add the other one on top of the final stats once the games above and this new sheet are done for. I have the feeling that doing it in reverse takes about 10x more time than just placing a normal bet at the right time.

[KTChampions]

So, a small update here is this Friday's bet:


and god, horrendous matches, if I'm not already in red by this time this will definitely be the nail in the coffin, as soon as I saw 3 Seria games on that list I was almost willing to make a reverse bet just for lols. I finished also 2 of the remaining results and I will add the other one on top of the final stats once the games above and this new sheet are done for. I have the feeling that doing it in reverse takes about 10x more time than just placing a normal bet at the right time.

Haha, the games are really contradictory. Merseyside derby, three games from Serie A (random painful league), PSG - Monaco is also not obvious.
Glad you're back and yes, it's better to do the calculations right away, after the results have accumulated over several rounds it becomes inconvenient and you can make a mistake somewhere.

[Hirose UK]

So, a small update here is this Friday's bet:


and god, horrendous matches, if I'm not already in red by this time this will definitely be the nail in the coffin, as soon as I saw 3 Seria games on that list I was almost willing to make a reverse bet just for lols. I finished also 2 of the remaining results and I will add the other one on top of the final stats once the games above and this new sheet are done for. I have the feeling that doing it in reverse takes about 10x more time than just placing a normal bet at the right time.

Great courage, if everything works out then it will be very impressive victory with 8 match and fairly large odds of course, I curious how the results will be for the completion of all the matches you choose.
But for one of the match in Serie-A Inter Milan vs Fiorentina I doubt it, their previous meeting Fiorentina win playing at home and for the next match Inter Milan will be the host, if Fiorentina plays well maybe it will be draw match.

[stompix]

Haha, the games are really contradictory. Merseyside derby, three games from Serie A (random painful league), PSG - Monaco is also not obvious.
Glad you're back and yes, it's better to do the calculations right away, after the results have accumulated over several rounds it becomes inconvenient and you can make a mistake somewhere.

Yeah, shitty games, although I'm right now 3 out of 3, the games that are next, I don't even what to think about them, normally I would have bet a cent on any of it, seriously from the last 5 games I have zero confidence in any of it. As for the results, yeah, a mess, I did all the rounds and I forgot about the French Ligue, was ready to publish the result when I realized something was weird as I had way too few games, what I normally do in just five minutes took me 40.

Great courage, if everything works out then it will be very impressive victory with 8 match and fairly large odds of course, I curious how the results will be for the completion of all the matches you choose.

It's not courage, that's what the experiment is about, betting on everything that is under 1.5 odds, normally I would not have taken a gamble on probably more than half of these matches, not even mentioning such weird parlays.

[stompix]

So the update finally:

Last round I had a premonition of a disaster, wasn't that bad

Round 19
- Individual bets balance  -0.12
- Multiplier balance -1

Round 16-18

- Individual bets balance  +1.18
- Multiplier balance -3

Truly incredible and had to double check but in the last 30 games for example in the Premier League only 1 fav under 1.5 lost and just surprisingly only Napoli screwed up an under 1.5 bet, it was the other leagues that erased the profits, not the usual ones.


Total after 19 rounds and 181 games

- Individual bets balance +4.06
- Multiplier balance +17.58

*Note that most likely the count on the number of games is wrong as is missing a round.

[stompix]

New round is coming up and this time I got it right and not missing the Friday games anymore



As usual, the games are meh!, Milan, Arsenal and Marseille teams I would avoid like the plague.

[stompix]

As usual, had to recreate this



FY Arsenal!!!

Round 20
- Individual bets balance  +1.56
- Multiplier balance -1

Total after 20 rounds and 194 games

- Individual bets balance +5.62
- Multiplier balance +16.58

[swogerino]

Well great to see profit after 20 rounds which shows only one needed thing in order to have success here, consistency. That is how I read it and love the way it is as it shows to many persons skeptical including myself that it is almost impossible to be done over a longer period of time but so far this here has proven me wrong. Of course I will continue to follow and of course check back often here in this thread and why not even copy some of these bets, personally I will look forward as with what the OP will come up for the upcoming Champions League games early next week and may follow as I say some of such bets.

[Cityhunter34]

To me this could be very hard to secure winning, the above matches you picked play much more of "Over 1.5"

It's under 1.5 odds for the team to win, I'm not going for goals

I get you, going for an under 1.5 win selection is a good idea because, odds can sometimes act as a good example of the win probability if nothing else goes wrong during the game. However  the only problem I have with the strategy is numbers of selected game. In making my 1x2 win selection I prefer  going for just 2 games that would result  to a 2.0 odd or a maximum of 4 game selection. The longer the games the more it becomes difficult to win, but on a general note this strategy would work best especially the selection from different leagues which makes it more fun.

Actually sometimes odds normally act as a good example in our winning, but if the game doesn't ton other way around. Because in gambling the longer the betting slip are, that is how your chance of winning in gambling would be reducing. so in other to be on a saver side is better you stick 1or 2 games that would result to 2.0 odd as you mentioned because your chance of winning would be very higher compare to multiple games.

[stompix]

Of course I will continue to follow and of course check back often here in this thread and why not even copy some of these bets, personally I will look forward as with what the OP will come up for the upcoming Champions League games early next week and may follow as I say some of such bets.

There is nothing that you need to copy from my betting experiment here, you just see a game in the main 5 leagues with odds under 1.5 (including) you bet on it.
Every single game, no matter how odd it looks, how bad you think it will lose, you bet on it.

Because in gambling the longer the betting slip are, that is how your chance of winning in gambling would be reducing. so in other to be on a saver side is better you stick 1or 2 games that would result to 2.0 odd as you mentioned because your chance of winning would be very higher compare to multiple games.

On the long run it doesn't matter, it's still a problem of possibilities.
Will you hit a 1000x parlay every day, of course not, but at the same time you will not hit 1000 profit faster with 2x bets either.

It stands at 0.1% for the parlay and you need on average 1 million bets for a 1k profit, so, the same.

[Kristiyana]

For a multiplier then it's a very hard game to win, but however I wish you good luck. Maybe I might start joining you   .

I do not think going for 2 or 3 matches as multiplier is bad. I have used it very well and the result is good. But the problem that most people have is that they may not go for the right matches. But going for more than 2 or 3 matches is very risky. I have tried 5 several times before and I lost the bet than going for 2 or 3 matches. I mostly go for just 2 matches. I also noticed that when I bet less often, I win more than when I bet often.

Of course going for 2 matches is always the best than betting randomly. sometimes you will not be familiar with most of the teams you will include in your betslip, and by so doing it will be very hard before luck can still locate you. You know is always like that whenever time we choose to bet randomly. Which is  why it takes some couple of months, sometimes year before most people can still experience win in gamble.

[stompix]

Time to end this, since I stopped because of a lack of time betting before each Friday and sometimes completely missing it, here are the results for each league on its own and the finals for the remaining games

Premier League +1.87
Bundesliga -3.74
Seria A  +1.35
La Liga +4.65
Ligue 1  +3.69

No winning multipliers!

Last matches balance
- Individual bets balance  +7.82
- Multiplier balance -14

Total after all rounds and 327 games

- Individual bets balance +13.44
- Multiplier balance +2.58

Conclusions? You would have earned around $15 for a year, with a bankroll somewhere in the upper $40, wagering $327.
I will not say it is worth or not, but it is time-consuming and quite stressful, even as an experiment, I can't picture myself dealing with $100 bets on this and wait every time for the last moment to check the odds.