Why don't we see US$ hyperinflation?

[riekinho]

Almost anybody surfing these forums is familiar with Austrian economic school views and the drill that goes along following lines:

- massive US debt
- even bigger unfunded liabilites
- massive FED printing of money
- mismanagement, debasing of currency has led (across space and time) to one thing and one thing only which is hyperinflation

Sitload of books predict the financial doomsday - some of them now almost a decade old.

So how come US and it's counterfeited dollar are still afloat? Why isn't it happening?

[1714159775]

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[jockular]

us debt isn't that massive and australians don't know shit about money

[Robert Paulson]

It is happening, its just that right now the inflation is in the stock market as thats where most of the QE3 money went.

[greenlion]

It's because the recipients of the monetary base expansion in this go-around are disproportionately corporate financial instituions.

In the current scenario household incomes are dropping even in nominal and not real terms. That covers the effect on prices because of a contraction in demand.

If anything, we're most likely going to be in a deflationary spiral due to collapse of demand for a while before you start seeing the direct monetary effects eventually work through to prices.

[BitOnyx]

It isn't happening because they were wrong apparently or maybe it will happen in future. I guess it is normal with "predictions".

[bobdutica]

Almost anybody surfing these forums is familiar with Austrian economic school views and the drill that goes along following lines:

- massive US debt
- even bigger unfunded liabilites
- massive FED printing of money
- mismanagement, debasing of currency has led (across space and time) to one thing and one thing only which is hyperinflation

Sitload of books predict the financial doomsday - some of them now almost a decade old.

So how come US and it's counterfeited dollar are still afloat? Why isn't it happening?

1) Most of the world's oil is traded in US dollars, so any country that needs oil must have USD. This keeps demand high for those dollars. (Offsetting some of high supply.)
2) A lot of the dollars that were created for the huge bank bailouts haven't yet been spent out into the economy yet. The banks are still sitting on the money.
3) Some of the excess money, looking for a place to go is artificially inflating stock prices.

These don't prevent hyperinflation, they just delay the inevitable.

[vincecate]

So how come US and it's counterfeited dollar are still afloat? Why isn't it happening?

In my own humble opinion the best answer is at:

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2014/01/how-we-know-inflation-is-coming.html

But the key really is that the new money the Fed made has not left their building yet.
They started paying interest on excess reserves and got the banks to leave the money at the Fed.

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2013/02/excess-reserves-is-like-government-debt.html

[thaaanos]

enough with this hyperinflation meme, do you guys even know what hyperinflation is? it is when you append a 0 every other day in the prices. Do you see that comming? 10% or 15% heck even 20% inflation is not hyperinflation.

[thaaanos]

enough with this hyperinflation meme, do you guys even know what hyperinflation is? it is when you append a 0 every other day in the prices. Do you see that comming? 10% or 15% heck even 20% inflation is not hyperinflation.

in some aspects hyperinflation is better than normal (hidden) inflation, due the fact that is a reality admitted by our rulers, leaders and commanders in chiefs

hyperinflation is a terminal condition, you have passed the point of no return you are heading to a social meltdown. Normal inflation hidden or open is when you are still in orbit. Not the same thing not to be confused.
You will know when you are in hyperinflation when bitcoin reaches "the moon".

[southerngentuk]

us debt isn't that massive and australians don't know shit about money

Almost anybody surfing these forums is familiar with Austrian economic school views and the drill that goes along following lines:

- massive US debt
- even bigger unfunded liabilites
- massive FED printing of money
- mismanagement, debasing of currency has led (across space and time) to one thing and one thing only which is hyperinflation

Sitload of books predict the financial doomsday - some of them now almost a decade old.

So how come US and it's counterfeited dollar are still afloat? Why isn't it happening?

I guess your point still stands thou  

[thaaanos]

enough with this hyperinflation meme, do you guys even know what hyperinflation is? it is when you append a 0 every other day in the prices. Do you see that comming? 10% or 15% heck even 20% inflation is not hyperinflation.

in some aspects hyperinflation is better than normal (hidden) inflation, due the fact that is a reality admitted by our rulers, leaders and commanders in chiefs

hyperinflation is a terminal condition, you have passed the point of no return you are heading to a social meltdown. Normal inflation hidden or open is when you are still in orbit. Not the same thing not to be confused.
You will know when you are in hyperinflation when bitcoin reaches "the moon".

I agree, but govts actions don't manifest themselves immediately

Still the fear of hyperinflation is irrational, it is noones interest to enter that territory, and lessons are learned from the past painfully, right now the world's problem is deflation, take a look at interest rates. Right now money is artificially overpriced.

[thaaanos]

enough with this hyperinflation meme, do you guys even know what hyperinflation is? it is when you append a 0 every other day in the prices. Do you see that comming? 10% or 15% heck even 20% inflation is not hyperinflation.

in some aspects hyperinflation is better than normal (hidden) inflation, due the fact that is a reality admitted by our rulers, leaders and commanders in chiefs

hyperinflation is a terminal condition, you have passed the point of no return you are heading to a social meltdown. Normal inflation hidden or open is when you are still in orbit. Not the same thing not to be confused.
You will know when you are in hyperinflation when bitcoin reaches "the moon".

I agree, but govts actions don't manifest themselves immediately

Still the fear of hyperinflation is irrational, it is noones interest to enter that territory, and lessons are learned from the past painfully, right now the world's problem is deflation, take a look at interest rates. Right now money is artificially overpriced.

added more,

about Right now money is artificially overpriced.

to me they are trying to artificially undervalue, the US had enough of cheap renminbi and started to depreciate the dollar

my currency gained against the dollar 15 year high, them we started to depreciate too

look to gld and oil 500% in 12 years, are we experiencing peak oil and peak gold at the same time? and almost the same proportion? don't think so


Still the fear of hyperinflation is irrational, fear is always irrational, but high inflation and hyperinflation will be a reality, already is, how so could CPfukinI not count energy and food (those fckrs c unts) how americans accept that, now there is lobby in my country that we should adopt the us criteria to measure inflation ( and always trying to do the best for ppl) since putting jesus in a cross thank U gov

I live in the Eurozone so perceptions may differ. Regardless inflation will not be a problem if it is simply by money supply, I fear more for a food crisis looming ahead.

[AlexGR]

Almost anybody surfing these forums is familiar with Austrian economic school views and the drill that goes along following lines:

- massive US debt
- even bigger unfunded liabilites
- massive FED printing of money
- mismanagement, debasing of currency has led (across space and time) to one thing and one thing only which is hyperinflation

Sitload of books predict the financial doomsday - some of them now almost a decade old.

So how come US and it's counterfeited dollar are still afloat? Why isn't it happening?

The long answer is here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/157370969/Hyperinflation-Dollar-Collapse-Precious-Metals.

The short answer in bullets:

1) Hyperinflation is one thing, large inflation is another. Hyperinflation is end-game scenario / doomsday scenario with prices escalating so fast that it's not even funny. You could wake up in the morning and bread costing 1$ and by noon it could cost 10$. This has been blown out of proportion as being a realistic possibility right here, right now, without a catastrophic event.
2) Manipulation of the markets regarding precious metals, energy, etc keep currencies like USD artificially "stable".
3) Western countries are in competitive devaluation - which make things in USD terms seem stable. Even switzerland promised to print as much as they can in order to keep their value steady and prevent inflow of capital to their currency from people fleeing EUR / USD etc.
4) The global-debt control mechanism through which tens of countries are indirectly controlled through a USD-denominated debt, would essentially be set free by a worthless USD debt that could be repaid easily. This will not happen.
5) The USD is still much better than most national currencies out there, especially of developing nations, which have no international demand and thus their printing is producing actual inflation much larger than the USD. Think of it as a bitcoin inflation vs altcoin inflation type of situation.
6) While the money quantity is inflating, at the same time ordinary people do not get access to this extra money. In fact people are experiencing deflation, in that they have a decreasing amount of money to spend for things due to increased cost of life, taxation, stagnant or reduced salaries etc etc. Banks are also regulating the flow of money to/from society in that they decide when to loan or when to gather past loans. If the government is on an expansive monetary policy, commercial banks can (and do) reduce liquidity on the market to counteract the effect that this would have if suddenly everyone went on a buying spree. For example if banks stop loaning out and start collecting past debts in a larger percentage than the issuance of new loans, society will experience a liquidity crisis and deflationary tendencies - no matter if the money supply of the central bank goes 2-5-10x.

[thaaanos]

Almost anybody surfing these forums is familiar with Austrian economic school views and the drill that goes along following lines:

- massive US debt
- even bigger unfunded liabilites
- massive FED printing of money
- mismanagement, debasing of currency has led (across space and time) to one thing and one thing only which is hyperinflation

Sitload of books predict the financial doomsday - some of them now almost a decade old.

So how come US and it's counterfeited dollar are still afloat? Why isn't it happening?

The long answer is here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/157370969/Hyperinflation-Dollar-Collapse-Precious-Metals.

The short answer in bullets:

1) Hyperinflation is one thing, large inflation is another. Hyperinflation is end-game scenario / doomsday scenario with prices escalating so fast that it's not even funny. You could wake up in the morning and bread costing 1$ and by noon it could cost 10$. This has been blow out of proportion as being a realistic possibility right here, right now, without a catastrophic event.
2) Manipulation of the markets regarding precious metals, energy, etc keep currencies like USD artificially "stable".
3) Western countries are in competitive devaluation - which make things in USD terms seem stable. Even switzerland promised to print as much as they can in order to keep their value steady and prevent inflow of capital to their currency from people fleeing EUR / USD etc.
4) The global-debt control mechanism through which tens of countries are indirectly controlled through a USD-denominated debt, would essentially be set free by a worthless USD debt that could be repaid easily. This will not happen.
5) The USD is still much better than most national currencies out there, especially of developing nations, which have no international demand and thus their printing is producing actual inflation much larger than the USD. Think of it as a bitcoin inflation vs altcoin inflation type of situation.
6) While the money quantity is inflating, at the same time ordinary people do not get access to this extra money. In fact people are experiencing deflation, in that they have a decreasing amount of money to spend for things due to increased cost of life, taxation, stagnant or reduced salaries etc etc. Banks are also regulating the flow of money to/from society in that they decide when to loan or when to gather past loans. If the government is on an expansive monetary policy, commercial banks can (and do) reduce liquidity on the market to counteract the effect that this would have if suddenly everyone went on a buying spree. For example if banks stop loaning out and start collecting past debts in a larger percentage than the issuance of new loans, society will experience a liquidity crisis and deflationary tendencies - no matter if the money supply of the central bank goes 2-5-10x.

that, most of the newly MB goes to support existing overreached M# supply. I see no problem here as the supply already exist (in whatever shady way). The Central bank simply is called to support it.
I see it like a Pull, rather than Push

[lnternet]

The Fed is not printing money, from what I understand.

[AlexGR]

The Fed is not printing money, from what I understand.

When we say the govt is printing money, we are not really talking about the paper notes in circulation, rather electronic money (digits in a computer screen) that exists in bank accounts.

[lnternet]

When we say the govt is printing money, we are not really talking about the paper notes in circulation, rather electronic money (digits in a computer screen) that exists in bank accounts.

Yes, of course. They are not doing that either though.

an excerpt from some quick google search result:

When the Fed creates $85 billion, it uses this money to buy bonds - typically split 50/50 between US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Here is what's important: When the Fed creates and gives $85 billion in reserves to its member banks, it removes $85 billion worth of assets (bonds) from the balance sheets of those same member banks. The result is that no new net financial assets enter the economy.

[bobdutica]

When we say the govt is printing money, we are not really talking about the paper notes in circulation, rather electronic money (digits in a computer screen) that exists in bank accounts.

Yes, of course. They are not doing that either though.

an excerpt from some quick google search result:

When the Fed creates $85 billion, it uses this money to buy bonds - typically split 50/50 between US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Here is what's important: When the Fed creates and gives $85 billion in reserves to its member banks, it removes $85 billion worth of assets (bonds) from the balance sheets of those same member banks. The result is that no new net financial assets enter the economy.

That's true, as far as it goes. But the Fed also buys Bonds directly from the Federal Government, and that creates new money.

[thaaanos]

When we say the govt is printing money, we are not really talking about the paper notes in circulation, rather electronic money (digits in a computer screen) that exists in bank accounts.

Yes, of course. They are not doing that either though.

an excerpt from some quick google search result:

When the Fed creates $85 billion, it uses this money to buy bonds - typically split 50/50 between US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Here is what's important: When the Fed creates and gives $85 billion in reserves to its member banks, it removes $85 billion worth of assets (bonds) from the balance sheets of those same member banks. The result is that no new net financial assets enter the economy.

That's true, as far as it goes. But the Fed also buys Bonds directly from the Federal Government, and that creates new money.

and Debt

Is is safe to assume that the US Gov sucks up overflowing debt this way? I wonder if US Gov can go bankrupt, or is it like a debt black hole and can go infinitly indebted?

[twiifm]

When we say the govt is printing money, we are not really talking about the paper notes in circulation, rather electronic money (digits in a computer screen) that exists in bank accounts.

Yes, of course. They are not doing that either though.

an excerpt from some quick google search result:

When the Fed creates $85 billion, it uses this money to buy bonds - typically split 50/50 between US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Here is what's important: When the Fed creates and gives $85 billion in reserves to its member banks, it removes $85 billion worth of assets (bonds) from the balance sheets of those same member banks. The result is that no new net financial assets enter the economy.

That's true, as far as it goes. But the Fed also buys Bonds directly from the Federal Government, and that creates new money.

and Debt

Is is safe to assume that the US Gov sucks up overflowing debt this way? I wonder if US Gov can go bankrupt, or is it like a debt black hole and can go infinitly indebted?

The only way the US goes bankrupt is when bond holders of US Treasuries has to be paid and they refuse USD as payment.  Unlikely to happen.  If this happens probably war breaks out.