We're experiencing the least volatile Bitcoin early (?) bear (?) market ever.

[d5000]

The Bitbo volatility index, which shows the Bitcoin price's volatilty over 30 or 60 days, has grown a bit since 2023, but still it hasn't reached a value similar to earlier bull markets.

30-day-volatility:


60-day-volatility:


The current value is at 1,7 for the 30-day volatility and 1,78 for the 60-day volatility. And the record low still is from 2023, when the 30-day value fell to 0,77, similar to the value of gold.

Bull markets and early bear markets were very volatile in the past due to FOMO and panic phases. The only bull market when similar values were achieved was the late crypto winter 2015/2016, when prices started to rise again. But as you can see in the graph, the volatility back then spiked regularly to 4 or even 5%. This is not the case in 2024 anymore, we only saw briefly 3% in the 30-day volatility in August, after the dip down into the 50k area.

I think this is a good sign, we're only one or two steps away to bring volatility down to values when Bitcoin could become more interesting as a currency or unit of account. Gold is currently at 0,5-1%. This is the value we'd like to achieve, even if probably there still will be some spikes to 2% for a long time.

[bitmover]

There is an old saying "never short a dull market"
We are basically here, in a very dull market right now.

For those who like, there are many technical indicators why dull markets with low volume and volatility are usually welcome and they indicate good buying opportunities

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-never-short-a-dull-market-is-pretty-good-advice-when-it-comes-to-stocks-11623174750

[Onyeeze]

Investment of Bitcoin the profit is just come out of surprise because it will be that when you are expecting the market to increase it will not be the time the market will it increase and it happens that the market increases unexpectedly for me it is good to invest in Bitcoin because the profit of Bitcoin will make you to have what to use to invest on it for three times and there's some people who does not know how Bitcoin gives profit will be the one that to the castigate the increase and to decrease of Bitcoin so I believe that the record of Bitcoin from time the price increases and the time the price decreases I believe that many persons have not done that Bitcoin can make a big man unexpectedly due to it's unexpected increment

[AmoreJaz]

Investment of Bitcoin the profit is just come out of surprise because it will be that when you are expecting the market to increase it will not be the time the market will it increase and it happens that the market increases unexpectedly for me it is good to invest in Bitcoin because the profit of Bitcoin will make you to have what to use to invest on it for three times and there's some people who does not know how Bitcoin gives profit will be the one that to the castigate the increase and to decrease of Bitcoin so I believe that the record of Bitcoin from time the price increases and the time the price decreases I believe that many persons have not done that Bitcoin can make a big man unexpectedly due to it's unexpected increment

You need to gauge if you can hold your investments in short or long-term. Because you may end up losing some if you are in a tight position and you need to sell off some of your coins below your buying price. Don't expect that you will always have the profit at anytime because the market movement is very unpredictable.

There is an old saying "never short a dull market"
We are basically here, in a very dull market right now.

For those who like, there are many technical indicators why dull markets with low volume and volatility are usually welcome and they indicate good buying opportunities

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-never-short-a-dull-market-is-pretty-good-advice-when-it-comes-to-stocks-11623174750

If your financials are good and you truly believe on this market, why not? But if you still have qualms and half-hearted of investing in this type of market, then, don't force yourself. Would only blame yourself if your plans go sideways. It is always best to cover all angles before investing in any asset so you won't be in tight position if you need to cash out your asset.

[d5000]

There is an old saying "never short a dull market"

Ha, I still didn't know this one, interesting I did know however that volatility is often seen as a warning sign as it indicates fear. And in 2023, I had started this thread as the BitVol (another volatility index based on option prices, like a "Bitcoin VIX") was on all time lows. This was in July 2023, and it turned out that the low volatility in this period was indeed a good indicator for the (then) coming bull run.

Unfortunately the article you linked is behind a paywall, but I know what to search for now for more info about that phenomenon.

Looking at the BitVol now (see source), the picture of the last months was really interesting. In February, we recorded a low-volatility (<50) period which led then to the March All-time high. In March, the relatively high BitVol correctly predicted an incoming drop. But in July, a low-volatility period was also recorded, and it led to lower prices (although the price rebounded fast every time it dipped). Now it's at 60, i.e. increasing a bit, but still moderate.



For me however, volatility is interesting also to answer the question "would I recommend Bitcoin to my mom?". The smoother the dips, the more potential for a positive answer to that question

[franky1]

although we are approaching 2025.. we are not quite there yet. be patient. FOMO season of the ATH is not yet upon us... but.. while the price is still low compared to its potential, you might aswell top up a few extra coin.

even if the minimalist of new ATH is $78k.... compared to this weeks $65k average, thats still a 20% growth for a year, better than any stock/share/bank account interest would offer

[Reatim]

although we are approaching 2025.. we are not quite there yet. be patient. FOMO season of the ATH is not yet upon us... but.. while the price is still low compared to its potential, you might aswell top up a few extra coin.

People worry too much. When they see that the price is not as high as they expect it to be, they start questioning if investing in bitcoin was the right choice instead of buying more to maximize profit. If you keep questioning bitcoin you are not any different from those pessimistic people who keep on wishing for bitcoin’s downfall to prove their theories right.

even if the minimalist of new ATH is $78k.... compared to this weeks $65k average, thats still a 20% growth for a year, better than any stock/share/bank account interest would offer

I think everyone went in to crypto being promised of high profits that they expect way too much and then they get impatient when they don’t see large numbers. But they forget to put things into perspective. 20% growth is a lot and not an easy feat to achieve in other investments.

[d5000]

although we are approaching 2025.. we are not quite there yet. be patient. FOMO season of the ATH is not yet upon us... but.. while the price is still low compared to its potential, you might aswell top up a few extra coin.

For me, the relatively low volatility of the 2023/2024 bull market is a positive sign, not something to worry about. Above all the intermediate crashes were mostly light (with the exception of the Nikkei crash in August), losses were mostly of 25% or less and recovery was quite fast, so those who didn't panic weren't affected at all probably.

I believe if Bitcoin grew only half the rate it grows currently long term (currently the long term trend is at slightly over 45 %/year, so we'd be talking about 20-25%/year), but with also half the likelihood of crashes, then more (financially) conservative people would invest in it. And they would also be more likely to invest in bearish phases, which could flatten volatility even more.

Imagine even the "cyclic" bear markets would only take away at most 35 %-40 % of the value (half of the current 75-80 % crashes). It would then seriously compete with several other assets people often use to diversify.

We're not there, of course. And thus I believe you're right, there are still several FOMO phases ahead. But in a couple of cycles more (late 20s, early 30s perhaps) we'd reached that point, and imo it would be great.

Volatility could of course grow in 2025 again, and we'd would have to re-check if the bull market is still the "least volatile".

[MusaMohamed]

There is an old saying "never short a dull market"
We are basically here, in a very dull market right now.

Leverages are risky to use with money and in a dull market, shorting or longing with leverages is very risky. It's not only "Never short a dull market" but it is true to say "Never long a dull market" if you are a trader, not an investor with plan for long term holding. Obviously Long and Short are used for leverage traders, not for investors.

In a dull market, excluding investors, with traders it is safest to close all open positions, exit the market and wait for big movement to join the market again.

If they let positions in either Short or Long open in dull market, without using one of best weapons in trading, the stop loss order, they are dumb traders.

[DeathAngel]

Hopefully it’s the calm before the storm. This year the market has had to absorb a lot of selling, starting with GBTC unwinding due to their high etf fees. They have had to sell hundreds of thousands of coins. We’ve also seen Gox repayments so more market sell pressure. I am confident 2025 will be very bullish.

[Helena Yu]

I think this is a good sign, we're only one or two steps away to bring volatility down to values when Bitcoin could become more interesting as a currency or unit of account. Gold is currently at 0,5-1%. This is the value we'd like to achieve, even if probably there still will be some spikes to 2% for a long time.

If that happen then I will say "Thank you Bitcoin for the x years, sayonara~".

I'm the one who use Bitcoin as an investment, once Bitcoin is no longer profitable, then I will look into other opportunity even though it's shitcoins. But, I expect Bitcoin is still profitable, at least in our generation, for new generation it's just like holding gold due to less volatile.

Bitcoin market cap already hit $1 Trillion, that's already a lot, money is limited, so we can't expect people will always have money to buy Bitcoin.

[l99l]

Recently, large amounts of money have been entering Bitcoin ETF's one after another.
The calm before the storm may have been broken.
The Chinese government's large amounts of fiat money entering the market also seemed to have brought some movement, but I'm not sure about that. It may be a matter of time before we see a new ATH.

[franky1]

although we are approaching 2025.. we are not quite there yet. be patient. FOMO season of the ATH is not yet upon us... but.. while the price is still low compared to its potential, you might aswell top up a few extra coin.

For me, the relatively low volatility of the 2023/2024 bull market is a positive sign,

to me this period of market cycle is completely normal

the 2015-16 period was relatively flat(before and during halving year)
the 2019-20 period was relatively flat(before and during halving year)

its no different.
the volatile period was 2017-18 (alltime high->correction)
the volatile period was 2021-22 (alltime high->correction)

alot of people just cant be patient, all they think of is the bull and bears where they think its just constant large ups and constant large downs.. they never think of the calves and cubs(small ups and downs) inbetween, and they dont think of the 4 year cycles, instead they wish for 4 week cycles.

they dont get that getting a multiplier of value increase per 4 year cycle is enough, even when it outpaces all other markets, they still want more, and sooner.. so much so that when these events of multipliers do happen, they still dont think its enough and so dont cash out at the rational tipping point and then end up waiting in spite for the next cycle or trading at the wrong point of the cycle

[tabas]

I agree that this is a good sign but we still shouldn't be confident enough I think that we'll tackle that later on once the bull market is done. We're probably halfway there to the possible peak that we're all waiting for. I'd say that the market is calmer this time because we've just passed through the ghost month but it won't be surprising when something happens and we'd see some unexpected turns and skyrocketing just like what's happening now. I remember discussions in the past that volatility will surely be lower in the future but I guess this isn't yet the moment.

The Chinese government's large amounts of fiat money entering the market also seemed to have brought some movement, but I'm not sure about that.

To be honest, this time it is them that makes more noise, and whatever news comes from them on this bull run looks moving and more impactful to the market.

[d5000]

to me this period of market cycle is completely normal

Yes, I get what you mean, but the charts I show in the OP tell you that the price evolution is even less volatile than in the past early bull markets (let's say 2015/16 and 2019/20, even if you don't take into account the volatility spike during the COVID crash in 2020 which was clearly an anomaly).

We can say it's "normal" however if we assume that volatility is generally on a long term downtrend, and that's also what I'm observing.

It's also not completely sure that we will have another euphoria period like February/March 2024. It's likely, yes, but Bitcoin isn't as predictable as some people think. The so called "4 year cycles" were very different one from another, for example the last cycle had the early 2019 high only half a year after the low.

With the rest of your post I agree.

I'd say that the market is calmer this time because we've just passed through the ghost month but it won't be surprising when something happens and we'd see some unexpected turns and skyrocketing just like what's happening now.

Also to your post I'd answer -- just look at the chart linked above. It's not only a "ghost month". It's the whole early-to mid bull market (from late 2022 lows on) which is less volatile than in other "cycles".

[eightdots]

I agree that this is a good sign but we still shouldn't be confident enough I think that we'll tackle that later on once the bull market is done. We're probably halfway there to the possible peak that we're all waiting for. I'd say that the market is calmer this time because we've just passed through the ghost month but it won't be surprising when something happens and we'd see some unexpected turns and skyrocketing just like what's happening now. I remember discussions in the past that volatility will surely be lower in the future but I guess this isn't yet the moment.

The Chinese government's large amounts of fiat money entering the market also seemed to have brought some movement, but I'm not sure about that.

To be honest, this time it is them that makes more noise, and whatever news comes from them on this bull run looks moving and more impactful to the market.

I agree with what is being said that the market is calm for now, but it would be good if there was some good news to break the calm. Most people who invest in Bitcoin know what it means to wait and have been waiting for a long time. Some have added to their portfolios while waiting, while others have held on to their investments in the face of negative news. I think we are approaching the time that Bitcoin investors have been waiting for.

I cannot predict how active the bull season will be, but I do think there will be opportunities for those who can wait to achieve their goals.

[EL MOHA]

Hopefully it’s the calm before the storm. This year the market has had to absorb a lot of selling, starting with GBTC unwinding due to their high etf fees. They have had to sell hundreds of thousands of coins. We’ve also seen Gox repayments so more market sell pressure. I am confident 2025 will be very bullish.

I have actually had the prediction that the sign for a bull market will be this Q4, although the start of this Q4 was a bearish one I think the dust is settling down gradually and there is a probability of we starting the bull run this year. Base on my predictions if the bitcoin price holds $65k as its local support for entirety of this month then we could actually be reaching a new all time high soon, there is a resistance at $71k that if broken will set us to head to $80k which is my prediction for this year

[pooya87]

Maybe that's because we are not yet in a bitcoin-style bull market which is why the volatility appears to be less compared to the previous bull markets we have experienced.

Looking at the charts for the entire 2024, we only see a bigger than usual sideways market where price neither goes below $50k nor does it go above $70k and yet it keeps on going up and down inside this range (about 4 drops and 4 rises).

This is why I don't consider this a bull market yet. Price has to break above $70k first and continue rising for this to be considered a bull market. By then we can give an opinion on whether the volatility is the same as before or not.

[NotATether]

This is why I don't consider this a bull market yet. Price has to break above $70k first and continue rising for this to be considered a bull market. By then we can give an opinion on whether the volatility is the same as before or not.

It'll probably become a bull market come November. At least that's what my hunch says. But then again, we could very well be trading sideways at that point too.

alot of people just cant be patient, all they think of is the bull and bears where they think its just constant large ups and constant large downs.. they never think of the calves and cubs(small ups and downs) inbetween, and they dont think of the 4 year cycles, instead they wish for 4 week cycles.

They just want larger and larger gains. I say if anyone wants that sort of upside, they should buy memecoins. But don't come back if it all comes crashing down. Because that's how it works.

[shield132]

Bull markets and early bear markets were very volatile in the past due to FOMO and panic phases. The only bull market when similar values were achieved was the late crypto winter 2015/2016, when prices started to rise again. But as you can see in the graph, the volatility back then spiked regularly to 4 or even 5%. This is not the case in 2024 anymore, we only saw briefly 3% in the 30-day volatility in August, after the dip down into the 50k area.

I think this is a good sign, we're only one or two steps away to bring volatility down to values when Bitcoin could become more interesting as a currency or unit of account. Gold is currently at 0,5-1%. This is the value we'd like to achieve, even if probably there still will be some spikes to 2% for a long time.

We would have a volatile year if there wasn't Bitcoin ETF approval this year. At the moment, political situation doesn't look well in the world, this might be the reason why prices are so stable because people don't risk right now. We need a small help with the price and once it starts going up, it won't stop for months.
By the way, it stands strong right now. I believe it's not going down to 50K, so I'm buying and buying.

There is an old saying "never short a dull market"

A short position is always very risky. The only moment when it's good is if you manage to guess when the bubble will bust and then immediately open a short position but we are very far from the moment right now because the major bull run hasn't even started.