We're experiencing the least volatile Bitcoin early (?) bear (?) market ever.

[tabas]

I'd say that the market is calmer this time because we've just passed through the ghost month but it won't be surprising when something happens and we'd see some unexpected turns and skyrocketing just like what's happening now.

Also to your post I'd answer -- just look at the chart linked above. It's not only a "ghost month". It's the whole early-to mid bull market (from late 2022 lows on) which is less volatile than in other "cycles".

Yeah, you're right. I've highlighted that because we just passed that but you said correctly that we've been seeing lesser volatile early this year and even before the halving.

I agree that this is a good sign but we still shouldn't be confident enough I think that we'll tackle that later on once the bull market is done. We're probably halfway there to the possible peak that we're all waiting for. I'd say that the market is calmer this time because we've just passed through the ghost month but it won't be surprising when something happens and we'd see some unexpected turns and skyrocketing just like what's happening now. I remember discussions in the past that volatility will surely be lower in the future but I guess this isn't yet the moment.

I agree with what is being said that the market is calm for now, but it would be good if there was some good news to break the calm. Most people who invest in Bitcoin know what it means to wait and have been waiting for a long time. Some have added to their portfolios while waiting, while others have held on to their investments in the face of negative news. I think we are approaching the time that Bitcoin investors have been waiting for.

I cannot predict how active the bull season will be, but I do think there will be opportunities for those who can wait to achieve their goals.

I guess that news that you're waiting to break the silence has come and that's the Tesla moving Bitcoins. Well, we have a conclusion that the calmest investors always, patience is always pays off.

[Peanutswar]

After the market gets sleep with the sideways of the market people getting afraid to make an investment with the bitcoin not until for the confirmation, and as of now after the tag of wards between the buyers and sellers, the buyer wins and we now break with the 67k price of the bitcoin and there's a lot of post actually right now in the social media platforms that the bitcoin already shows the bitcoin price already touch the golden rule which is we are expecting the next bull run that the price will take at least 100k.

[d5000]

Maybe that's because we are not yet in a bitcoin-style bull market which is why the volatility appears to be less compared to the previous bull markets we have experienced.

It's likely that we're talking about different things when we talk about a "bull market". You seem to refer to the euphoria phase later in the cycle, when usually the steepest price increases are recorded (e.g. 2013, 2017 and 2020/21), but for me that is only the last leg (or Elliott wave 5) of the bull market.

The bull market I'm talking about in the OP is the upwards movement since late 2022, i.e. since the FTX crash to $15500. Since then, the price evolution has been even more positive than in the last early bulls (2019 and 2015).

- In 2015 the price rebounded fast from its sub-150$ to around $200-300, but stood there for the entire year. Only in 2016 it made a significant upwards movement.
- In 2019 the initial movement was steeper (it went fastly from $3000 to $8000 and then even $14000 in a few months) but then it moved sideways until the March 2020 crash.

The difference compared to these two "early bulls" is that that in both cases there were significant price spikes and intermediate crashes of 30% and more (again, March 2020 was an anomaly so I'm not taking this one into account). This didn't occur in 2022-23, while there were of course ups and downs they rarely exceeded 20%. The most significant movement, 73 to 49k, was 33%, but it's the only downward movement over 25% in the whole early bullish cycle.

As written before I expect volatility indeed to increase near the late bull, and it will be interesting if the assumption "least volatile bull" holds until then. But as written in the OP the early bull (and maybe "midterm" bull too, we don't know how long the cycle may be) seems to be much less volatile both for the 30-day, the 60-day "realized" volatility and also for implied volatility (BitVol).

[Catenaccio]

The bull market I'm talking about in the OP is the upwards movement since late 2022, i.e. since the FTX crash to $15500. Since then, the price evolution has been even more positive than in the last early bulls (2019 and 2015).

- In 2015 the price rebounded fast from its sub-150$ to around $200-300, but stood there for the entire year. Only in 2016 it made a significant upwards movement.
- In 2019 the initial movement was steeper (it went fastly from $3000 to $8000 and then even $14000 in a few months) but then it moved sideways until the March 2020 crash.

The difference compared to these two "early bulls" is that that in both cases there were significant price spikes and intermediate crashes of 30% and more (again, March 2020 was an anomaly so I'm not taking this one into account). This didn't occur in 2022-23, while there were of course ups and downs they rarely exceeded 20%. The most significant movement, 73 to 49k, was 33%, but it's the only downward movement over 25% in the whole early bullish cycle.

Bitcoin historical corrections from all time highs. Chart is for corrections from ATH, not from peaks but it can visualize what you want to say somewhat, not perfect examples for you certainly.

Drawdowns in Bitcoin market bull runs shrink and become smaller with time too.
https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/bf532ce2-a66b-4798-6deb-bf3ba7decc59

[Ultegra134]

I'm not an analyst, but it's something I've also mentioned myself on another thread. The past few months have been quite stable in terms of volatility; Bitcoin would usually range from $58,000 to $65,000, with frequent minor pumps and dumps throughout the summer. I don't recall seeing a major dump in price; crashing from $63,000 to $58,000 only to recover in the next 24 hours isn't a major crash. I used to remember massive price fluctuations during previous bull periods in 2017 and 2021, respectively. This however seems to have changed in 2024, at least after the ATH was surpassed in March.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, it's probably because we're currently not experiencing the actual surge of the current bull market, no? BUT do have some attention in the Bitcoin ETFs, particularly BLACKROCK'S ETF.

👀

Plus to all of my dear fellow plebs, you haven't been selling your Bitcoins to the billionaires, are you? Chad Saylor has been buying the small "low volatile" DIPs. I believe other billionaires should also be buying Bitcoin for their companies after seeing MicroStrategy's stock performance by merely HODLing Bitcoin in their balance sheet.

[d5000]

OP, it's probably because we're currently not experiencing the actual surge of the current bull market, no?

Again, please read the entire post ... I compared the bull market until now (technically, until March 2024, as we don't know exactly if we're still in a bull market) to early bull markets in the past, and it still is less volatile

Chad Saylor has been buying the small "low volatile" DIPs.

I believe "dip buying" could indeed be the reason why the intermediate corrections are getting smaller (mostly under 20-25%), contributing to the lower volatility.

In theory people should slowly learn that dips are an opportunity, and thus in the medium run even 15% dips should be short if the general uptrend continues. We had 15 years of higher highs despite of the dips.

The reasons still panics occur are probably:

1) there's always a "Doomsday" narrative: "Bitcoin will fail eventually". "Maybe this is the last surge before the final collapse". The reason is probably that Bitcoin isn't as universally accepted in society as it should be imo, there are still extreme critics who'd like to ban it and still "don't get" the advantages, and also a big part of the "general population" stays sceptic.

2) propaganda of short sellers (often hedge funds). I think this was what we saw this (boreal) summer and caused the dips deep into the 50s. Reasons vary, from the MtGox coins and a coming recession up to Kamala Harris, but it's always the same method: generate fear with some "analysis" but drastically exaggerating the true influence a certain fact or event could have on adoption. It's to be taken as seriously as the permabull analyses we see often.

3) fear that you just run into "the bear market", i.e. a longer and deeper correction of about 12 months like 2014 or 2018.

Drawdowns in Bitcoin market bull runs shrink and become smaller with time too.
https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/bf532ce2-a66b-4798-6deb-bf3ba7decc59

Thanks, interesting chart. The interesting thing is that the 20-21 bull was an anomaly as the drawdowns were even more pronounced than in 15-17. And while 23-24 looks like having significant drawdowns near the end, they were still less deep, and above all shorter, than in 15-17.

[Antotena]

I'm not an analyst, but it's something I've also mentioned myself on another thread. The past few months have been quite stable in terms of volatility; Bitcoin would usually range from $58,000 to $65,000, with frequent minor pumps and dumps throughout the summer. I don't recall seeing a major dump in price; crashing from $63,000 to $58,000 only to recover in the next 24 hours isn't a major crash. I used to remember massive price fluctuations during previous bull periods in 2017 and 2021, respectively. This however seems to have changed in 2024, at least after the ATH was surpassed in March.

This is one of the coolest manipulation of Bitcoin price I have experience since I know Bitcoin. If you look at the chart, with the way it looks we have high tendency of going up than the upper side on the monthly time frame but do you think institutional investors like the Blackrocks and others are here to push for ETF only to get their money wasted by some small whales, the market is now beyond what we know and it's now in their hand to do what wish.

If this is bull run, we should be seeing other coins following up but ofcuorse the interest is just the Bitcoin and that's what the men control. I will just sleep and wake and then see Bitcoin on another price and I'm very sure this slow movement will continue like this until they achieved their target and for people that are thinking it would crash, this low volatility will make it even hard to dump any how unless there is another part 2 FTX which unlikely.

[crwth]

I agree that it is a good sign, meaning that many people are HODLing and not selling. The buying pressure from ETFs also maintains the buying price. I think it will just continue to rise, and I hope that everyone here in BTCT will be HODLing as well.

I also noticed this, and I hope that it will have a positive impact in the long run.

[dezoel]

After the market gets sleep with the sideways of the market people getting afraid to make an investment with the bitcoin not until for the confirmation, and as of now after the tag of wards between the buyers and sellers, the buyer wins and we now break with the 67k price of the bitcoin and there's a lot of post actually right now in the social media platforms that the bitcoin already shows the bitcoin price already touch the golden rule which is we are expecting the next bull run that the price will take at least 100k.

If you are new in here, maybe, as you will think the event is quite strange, that it can be a sign of something bad to happen. I think there are still newbies who likes the stability of BTC. For those who disliked it, IDK if what confirmation they are after at? Is it when the BTC revert to its previous form?

Or is it when someone claims that BTC is still safe to invest in? If this is it, I will now start here by saying that everything in BTC is only fine and they can continue investing like they used to. The tag of wards you are saying there must be tug of war but even if it is not spelled correctly, it is still obvious for the readers. One of the goals of the buyer is to buy and hoard as much as possible. They don't care for a while if the price rise after it and they know this because the price works based on supply and demand.

It means that if there is more demand, the price really can rise. The other goal of the buyer is when they sell their possessions on their desired value. $67k is not really new for us old-timers, so this is not something that excites us anymore to sell. That is another reason on why the price is still rising. Didn't knew that golden rule you said there but the only golden rule I know is to buy low and sell high. Anyways, that was still nice to know and we are now very excited for BTC to reach 100k.

[Smartprofit]

There is an old saying "never short a dull market"
We are basically here, in a very dull market right now.

For those who like, there are many technical indicators why dull markets with low volume and volatility are usually welcome and they indicate good buying opportunities

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-never-short-a-dull-market-is-pretty-good-advice-when-it-comes-to-stocks-11623174750

As far as I remember, in 2019, Bitcoin price volatility was also very low. The media and cryptocurrency exchange executives wrote that low volatility was here to stay and advised trading with leverage (if you want to make a profit).

Then the Covid pandemic began and Bitcoin price first fell to $4,500 and then rose to $69,000.

When people tell me that Bitcoin has low volatility, I say - "Let's wait! Bitcoin can surprise!" We do not know the future, and it is also too early to say that we are in a full-fledged bull market (after all, Bitcoin price is now even lower than the ATH of the previous bull cycle).

Various surprises may await us ahead.

[alani123]

It's certainly interesting what's going on.

Certainly having both residential candidates talk about crypto and also on a positive light is a positive outlook for the future of crypto.
Now crypto has established a base in big investors and systemic platforms.

So we always have to consider that the foundations are harder to be shaken now. It's harder to return to the lows because big capital has very easy access and so the demand is higher.

And moreover the inflation of FIAT is still rampant. But really don't consider all is good. Still many things could fail. Binance, USDT, defi hacks are all risk factors that should be considered and can still do a lot of damage.

[d5000]

As far as I remember, in 2019, Bitcoin price volatility was also very low. The media and cryptocurrency exchange executives wrote that low volatility was here to stay and advised trading with leverage (if you want to make a profit).

2019 can be compared with 2023 as the intial year of the bull market, which are often a bit less volatile, that's true.

But even if you ignore the Covid pandemic crash, you had the 2019 (boreal) summer spike to $14000, coming from $3000-4000 at the start of the year.

it is also too early to say that we are in a full-fledged bull market (after all, Bitcoin price is now even lower than the ATH of the previous bull cycle).

A bull market is any longer episode with a sustained upwards movement following a previous low. The start of this bull market was at $15,500; which means that it led already to a +300% price increase. I would not be surprised if the top of the bull market is significantly less far away than 300% from the current $65-70k. In fact, I would be surprised by more than another 100% more (e.g. more than 150k) until late 2025.

I agree however with you that there's potential for surprises ahead. I believe there could be a volatility spike when people start to talk about a gold flippening, which would cause both FOMO and panic due to the (predictable) backlash, for example the first influencers talking about that phenomenon could be harshly criticized and gold bugs could start to finance anti-Bitcoin campaigns.

As gold however has a market cap that would be equivalent of a Bitcoin price of more than $500,000 I expect this debate however only to happen if Bitcoin manages to grow over $200k.

[Fortify]

The Bitbo volatility index, which shows the Bitcoin price's volatilty over 30 or 60 days, has grown a bit since 2023, but still it hasn't reached a value similar to earlier bull markets.

The current value is at 1,7 for the 30-day volatility and 1,78 for the 60-day volatility. And the record low still is from 2023, when the 30-day value fell to 0,77, similar to the value of gold.

Bull markets and early bear markets were very volatile in the past due to FOMO and panic phases. The only bull market when similar values were achieved was the late crypto winter 2015/2016, when prices started to rise again. But as you can see in the graph, the volatility back then spiked regularly to 4 or even 5%. This is not the case in 2024 anymore, we only saw briefly 3% in the 30-day volatility in August, after the dip down into the 50k area.

I think this is a good sign, we're only one or two steps away to bring volatility down to values when Bitcoin could become more interesting as a currency or unit of account. Gold is currently at 0,5-1%. This is the value we'd like to achieve, even if probably there still will be some spikes to 2% for a long time.

This is probably a great thing for the longevity of Bitcoin as an actual currency rather than a commodity. People need to be comfortable keeping it and using it as a functional item, the best way to do that is knowing that if you have money stored in Bitcoin form, that it will not lose 10 or 20% of it's value while you are sleeping that can be caused by any number of unpredictable events. Sure, it can go up, but you should settle for a steady increase over a long time period than a massive up and down effect. Let's hope this continues because it might actually cause more retail and average investors to start pouring money into it if it is a bit more stable.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Well, it's about damn time!

My stomach has become accustomed to bitcoin's often nauseating (or exhilarating) swings, but the way I see it the less volatility it experiences, the more appealing it becomes to anyone who's even thinking about buying it.  Obviously I don't think any of us want to see bitcoin become a stablecoin or anything, but overall this is a good sign.

I betcha this is probably due to big investors finally jumping into the market over the past few years--and not selling, e.g., Michael Saylor.  I could be totally wrong, and whatever you think about institutional investors buying bitcoin, I do think they're bringing some stability to the price as well as a solid endorsement from THE SYSTEM.  Five years ago I'd never have thought any crypto would be tracked in mainstream newspapers like the WSJ and such, but here we are.

OP, it's probably because we're currently not experiencing the actual surge of the current bull market, no?

Again, please read the entire post ... I compared the bull market until now (technically, until March 2024, as we don't know exactly if we're still in a bull market) to early bull markets in the past, and it still is less volatile

I read both your posts, and I think Wind_FURY thinks bitcoin isn't in a bull market or the bullishness of the market hasn't reached its full-on rage yet--and from there I'm assuming that he's assuming that if and when bitcoin starts to go crazy sick nutzo, we might see that volatility start to revert back to what it once was.

Note: I didn't read any followup posts, but that's how I interpreted the above opinion, which doesn't sound completely unreasonable.

[d5000]

I betcha this is probably due to big investors finally jumping into the market over the past few years--and not selling, e.g., Michael Saylor.  I could be totally wrong, and whatever you think about institutional investors buying bitcoin, I do think they're bringing some stability to the price as well as a solid endorsement from THE SYSTEM.

Definitely this could explain a part of the tendency. At least it seems that during the dips in July, August and September, the ETF holders (which could be institutionals at least in part) didn't massively sell, but in some occasions even "bought the dip", i.e. the ETFs registered inflows while the BTC price dropped. I haven't analyzed Saylor's timing for buys, but of course he could also have contributed to stabilize the price a bit, at least I don't remember him buying exactly in a FOMO phase.

The "endorsement of the system" is also probably a factor, very bearish scenarios like "Bitcoin gets banned" are not really a thing anymore at this stage (at least in most parts of the world), so at least there's one "panic factor" less.

I read both your posts, and I think Wind_FURY thinks bitcoin isn't in a bull market or the bullishness of the market hasn't reached its full-on rage yet--and from there I'm assuming that he's assuming that if and when bitcoin starts to go crazy sick nutzo, we might see that volatility start to revert back to what it once was.

Of course, the thing is that I had already addressed this issue (that volatility could increase in the later stages of the bull market) here in my answer to pooya87, three posts earlier ... looked a bit redundant, nothing more ...

[Jegileman]

although we are approaching 2025.. we are not quite there yet. be patient. FOMO season of the ATH is not yet upon us... but.. while the price is still low compared to its potential, you might aswell top up a few extra coin.

even if the minimalist of new ATH is $78k.... compared to this weeks $65k average, thats still a 20% growth for a year, better than any stock/share/bank account interest would offer

This looks enticing and it’s not just the maximum you can get at the coming bull run but the minimum. I think growth like this that are not explicitly explained makes some people feel relent when it comes to investing in bitcoin at this time. A 20% growth within a short time from now is just worth it that you can’t get from any financial institution for this time frame.

That saying that is popular that there’s not a wrong time to invest in bitcoin. Yesterday was the best time and if you’ve missed out of it, then the best time is now. A lot would have closed accumulating more coin into their portfolio and just waiting for the bull run, but the opportunities never stop coming and it will be better if they’re still utilised for those that are still capable of adding more.

[Lucius]

~snip~
I think this is a good sign, we're only one or two steps away to bring volatility down to values when Bitcoin could become more interesting as a currency or unit of account. Gold is currently at 0,5-1%. This is the value we'd like to achieve, even if probably there still will be some spikes to 2% for a long time.

Is volatility the only obstacle to Bitcoin being used more as a currency? I don't believe that people in general will turn away from investing for profit in the direction of using BTC as a currency, regardless of the volatility that, whether we want to admit it or not, is the main driving force pushing BTC forward.

In addition, no major government in the world will allow a decentralized currency to undermine its own centralized system, even if it means banning Bitcoin as a currency, as some countries such as Turkey, Thailand or Vietnam have done.

[Argoo]

although we are approaching 2025.. we are not quite there yet. be patient. FOMO season of the ATH is not yet upon us... but.. while the price is still low compared to its potential, you might aswell top up a few extra coin.

even if the minimalist of new ATH is $78k.... compared to this weeks $65k average, thats still a 20% growth for a year, better than any stock/share/bank account interest would offer

The cryptocurrency market has always been unpredictable in its price rise and fall. In April, there was the last Bitcoin halving and, as a general rule, there should have been a big rise in this market by now, which usually happens 6-8 months after this event. But we could see that each new cycle is not like the previous one.

There are always specific external factors that have a significant impact on this market. It is quite possible that, as happened before, whales are experiencing weak hands, after which the price of Bitcoin will again sharply rise and reach the price of one hundred thousand dollars and above, predicted by some. I hope that we are already on the threshold of this grand event. The coming months should confirm this.

[d5000]

Is volatility the only obstacle to Bitcoin being used more as a currency? I don't believe that people in general will turn away from investing for profit in the direction of using BTC as a currency, regardless of the volatility that, whether we want to admit it or not, is the main driving force pushing BTC forward.

Not the only one imo. Another factor is for example the transaction fee problem, here layer-2's like Lightning would have to become more popular.

What you mentioned however doesn't contradict the theory of an increased "use as a currency". What I'm expecting is no sharp change from "investment/store of value" use to "currency" use, but a gradual process.

So if we assume that today 2-3% of Bitcoiners use it "as a currency", then once we have gold-like volatility and popular second layers this could ascend to 5 or 10%, maybe 20%. Investment would be still by far the main use case, but it could become more popular to spend Bitcoins directly instead of selling them, for example if you held them for some years.

New use cases would also pop up. For now Bitcoin is a "risky and speculative investment", just like stocks are. In the lower-volatility scenario it could be seen as an alternative to a bond or fixed interest saving accounts, i.e. a "safer" means to save money.

In addition, no major government in the world will allow a decentralized currency to undermine its own centralized system, even if it means banning Bitcoin as a currency, as some countries such as Turkey, Thailand or Vietnam have done.

None of these countries are full-fledged democracies. Payments in Bitcoin are mostly considered as bartering, and banning this would mean restrict the right to barter. I don't say this can't be done but it would for sure need a full law (and thus broad political support) and not only a "directive" from some "authority".