We're experiencing the least volatile Bitcoin early (?) bear (?) market ever.

[BtcAnalyst1]

Hopefully it’s the calm before the storm. This year the market has had to absorb a lot of selling, starting with GBTC unwinding due to their high etf fees. They have had to sell hundreds of thousands of coins. We’ve also seen Gox repayments so more market sell pressure. I am confident 2025 will be very bullish.

The market this year has shown a lot of strength absorbing most negative news, speculations all the way since the beginning of 2025. I am not surprised because there has been unpresident demands, institutions were actually tremendous, accumulating more bitcoin, and till this day, some institutions are still buying.

[coyhasmon]

Not only is the title still a fact. But the 30-day volatility actually registered a new low not only for 2025, but also for all the period since mid-2023: 0.96%.

Just wow. At what point do we seriously stop calling Bitcoin a volatile asset and reject anyone's claims that it is? This is pretty impressive already.

It is likely that the order books are "thicker" and the liquidity higher when the price is higher, but it is not guaranteed. In the altcoin world for example you have very liquid coins (which tend to be more stable) with a relatively low market cap and others with less liquidity, a higher market cap, and probability of stronger price swings. I can search for concrete examples if someone is interested.

That's right. Market capitalization and liquidity are entirely separate thing. They are often correlated, but they are separate. Where we will see a lot of improvements in Bitcoin's liquidity is when it can absorb a lot of panic selling without the price going down much.

[d5000]

Just wow. At what point do we seriously stop calling Bitcoin a volatile asset and reject anyone's claims that it is? This is pretty impressive already.

If the volatility would stay close to 1% for extended periods of time, I would already no longer consider it an excessively volatile/risky asset. This is approximately the value reached by gold or also most currencies (other than USD, Euro, CNY etc.), I have mentioned the BRL earlier in this thread as an example with a volatility close to gold's, and if we could reach this value BTC would begin to be usable as a currency.

The problem is that Bitcoin's volatility still tends to spike in some occasions. Currently it's again over 1% due to the dip in the last days, but the value is still in gold's range, with 1,2-1,3%. But earlier spikes (in particular the February 2025 dip, the strongest since 2022, and the a little less deep but more volatile August 2024 dip) were about 3%, which is still a quite high value.

For me the next "milestone" is when we don't surpass 2% in the 30- and 60-day volatility for at least a year, and the deepest dip in a 4-year period doesn't go down more than 50% compared to the previous ATH.

[WillyAp]

Just wow. At what point do we seriously stop calling Bitcoin a volatile asset and reject anyone's claims that it is? This is pretty impressive already.

If the volatility would stay close to 1% for extended periods of time, I would already no longer consider it an excessively volatile/risky asset. This is approximately the value reached by gold or also most currencies (other than USD, Euro, CNY etc.), I have mentioned the BRL earlier in this thread as an example with a volatility close to gold's, and if we could reach this value BTC would begin to be usable as a currency.

That is long past. Just look a the video standards Beta and VHS. Ineyes of the Public Bitcoin is too expensive, Satoshis are unknown.
The videotape election in the  period of competition or "format war" of incompatible models of consumer-level analog video videocassette and video cassette recorders (VCR) in the late 1970s and the 1980s, mainly involving the Betamax and VHS (Video Home System) formats.

Peter Thiel maintains an opinion about stagnation, 50 years of it.
https://youtu.be/vV7YgnPUxcU?si=LugCZvwcO36CQb2n

His view on the impact of new technologies is interesting to say the least.

people maintain that the impact of technologies was huge.
I concur on the view that the Digital revolution was not embraced by more of 3rd of the 1st world's population. Social media is just a fraction of the digital revolution, Crypto is even less so.
 
Many people share his view though:
https://faculty.washington.edu/jscholl/2025/07/26/flying-cars-ai-and-peter-thiels-myth-of-stagnation/

[Jubilee58]

The bitcoin market is no longer as volatile as it was in the past , it is becoming more stable as goes by , bitcoin is aging gradually and to some extent it is more advantageous to investors with low risk tolerance .But this does not mean it won't make profit for investors, it is still full of potential and at the due time bitcoin will still recover. And despite that bitcoin is not as volatile as before it will keep making millionaires especially to the long time investors who are patiently waiting for their investment to get matured.

[DeathAngel]

This thread was started in October 2024 but the fact that this is the least volatile bull market ever still stands. Bitcoin was like $95,000 at the start of 2025 & it’s not even up 20% now. It’s peak bull year of the four year cycle, returns are incredibly weak. Let’s hope that changes as we soon enter Q4 which is traditionally the best performing time of a bull market.

[Cookdata]

The bitcoin market is no longer as volatile as it was in the past , it is becoming more stable as goes by , bitcoin is aging gradually and to some extent it is more advantageous to investors with low risk tolerance .But this does not mean it won't make profit for investors, it is still full of potential and at the due time bitcoin will still recover. And despite that bitcoin is not as volatile as before it will keep making millionaires especially to the long time investors who are patiently waiting for their investment to get matured.

There is nothing I dislike like the ordinals they were spamming in witness section of taproot, it was a pain in the ass to run an ordinary transaction back then and at the same time, Bitcoin was volatile but not as high as compared to the 20/21 bull run and that is because people don't see any reason to sell anymore. Back then, the way the market was so manipulated was so alarming that your stop loss can get skipped if you're have any open trade position.

Let's hope the institutional investors don't jinx us, if they continue to buy and hold, they are going to to be reducing coins from circulation helping the weak hands stay away from the market, the more they buy and hold the stronger the market is going to stay and more and more people are going to have something to believe on, there is no going to be reason to panic if you wake up and see that the market has dump on you, it will always come back to where it started.

[philipma1957]

I have an idea picture this Nov 4 2024 to Sept 3 2025.

99.5k

-25%
+25%

we have not deviated  from that slot

ie 74k low 124k high

99.5k middle


So I ask how long has a track like this lasted.

We are now at 10 months.  in the slot .

[STT]

BTC price about doubled, the idea its gone or going nowhere seems delusional to me.  Its not the chaos I remember of previous bull runs, its more of a jog is  fair but its travelled a long way and BTC is still far more volatile then most assets despite being wildly traded across the market so it remains a stand out asset really.

Peter Thiel maintains an opinion about stagnation, 50 years of it.

I love that someone would say that, the opposite is far more likely as great transition occurs.  Things like free energy could occur within 50 years I think we're pretty close to that, distribution of that energy would be the cost or charge to use and storage but the world is not hinting at being stagnant how could someone say that is funny to me

[Smartvirus]

Just wow. At what point do we seriously stop calling Bitcoin a volatile asset and reject anyone's claims that it is? This is pretty impressive already.

If the volatility would stay close to 1% for extended periods of time, I would already no longer consider it an excessively volatile/risky asset. This is approximately the value reached by gold or also most currencies (other than USD, Euro, CNY etc.), I have mentioned the BRL earlier in this thread as an example with a volatility close to gold's, and if we could reach this value BTC would begin to be usable as a currency.

It’s very unlikely in this time or even in a decade to come that we would find a stable Bitcoin that wouldn’t continue to spike every now and then. It’s what you would expect of a scarce commodity that follows no particular seasons but its own and it’s compliant completely to the laws of demand and supply. The quest for adoption would always spike its price to be more accommodating of the ever growing population on a global scale and on adoption bases.

[coyhasmon]

Just wow. At what point do we seriously stop calling Bitcoin a volatile asset and reject anyone's claims that it is? This is pretty impressive already.

If the volatility would stay close to 1% for extended periods of time, I would already no longer consider it an excessively volatile/risky asset. This is approximately the value reached by gold or also most currencies (other than USD, Euro, CNY etc.), I have mentioned the BRL earlier in this thread as an example with a volatility close to gold's, and if we could reach this value BTC would begin to be usable as a currency.

Fair enough and I think we are very close to that. For now I already reject claims that it is extremely or even very volatile. I would just put it into the volatile category, no need to exaggerate it more than that. The data confirms this.

The problem is that Bitcoin's volatility still tends to spike in some occasions. Currently it's again over 1% due to the dip in the last days, but the value is still in gold's range, with 1,2-1,3%. But earlier spikes (in particular the February 2025 dip, the strongest since 2022, and the a little less deep but more volatile August 2024 dip) were about 3%, which is still a quite high value.

The volatility on 365 days is still going to be high as long as we are in price discovery. I don't think this will stop soon.

For me the next "milestone" is when we don't surpass 2% in the 30- and 60-day volatility for at least a year, and the deepest dip in a 4-year period doesn't go down more than 50% compared to the previous ATH.

I would also like to see thing, it will be a big milestone.

It’s very unlikely in this time or even in a decade to come that we would find a stable Bitcoin that wouldn’t continue to spike every now and then. It’s what you would expect of a scarce commodity that follows no particular seasons but its own and it’s compliant completely to the laws of demand and supply. The quest for adoption would always spike its price to be more accommodating of the ever growing population on a global scale and on adoption bases.

We are very close to this volatility number, so your post does not make sense.

[d5000]

Due to the recent flash crash and general ups and downs between approximately 105,000 and 126,000, the Bitcoin volatility has spiked up a bit again and is now a little bit under 2% (1,83% in the graph).



However, the point of the thread still stands, and in fact the volatility was lower than in the last dip in February and March. At the end of the bull market it is quite normal that the volatility surges.

And just a few days before, in early October, a new 2 year low of 0,88% was recorded for the 30-day volatility (the record of August 2023, on ~0.70%, still stands though) and the 60-day volatility was around 1%. For comparison: The Brazilian Real (BRL), the red line, is currently at 0,66, so if Bitcoin could hold the low-volatility phases it was already close to a real currency's volatility.

Compared to the 2021 bull where in the late bull the volatility was around 5% for both 30 and 60 day values, we see clearly an improvement.

[kotajikikox]

There is an old saying "never short a dull market"
We are basically here, in a very dull market right now.

For those who like, there are many technical indicators why dull markets with low volume and volatility are usually welcome and they indicate good buying opportunities

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-never-short-a-dull-market-is-pretty-good-advice-when-it-comes-to-stocks-11623174750

Unfortunately lots of people do not think this way. This is what separates those with good financial assessments. Yes it is risky to buy assets during moments where the market is down but if you can see its potential in the long term then you can be one of the few ones to benefit from the downturn of a market.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

The problem I see with this is that volatility is linked to profitability, and we are in the least profitable post-halving period in history. If things continue as they are until the end of the year, volatility will have decreased, but profitability will not have been anything to write home about. Gold has been more profitable and the Nasdaq 100 is on par, meaning that with a little push, it could even surpass Bitcoin this year.

I would prefer lower volatility but with sustained upward price growth, which is not happening.

[d5000]

The problem I see with this is that volatility is linked to profitability, and we are in the least profitable post-halving period in history. If things continue as they are until the end of the year, volatility will have decreased, but profitability will not have been anything to write home about. Gold has been more profitable and the Nasdaq 100 is on par, meaning that with a little push, it could even surpass Bitcoin this year.

I think you know my stance about the influence of halvings -- that they don't matter anymore because miners aren't anymore a strong seller group if we take into amount total exchange volume.

Thus I think we should still look at the bigger picture of this bull market, and if we look at the development between late 2022 (15-17k) and our current price at ~110k, then profitability has been exceptional (600-700% depending if we count the 126k spike or not). Gold, despite of its current insane bubble, has only reached around 120% since back then (~1750$ in late 2022, now 4100$). Only the pacing was different, Bitcoin encountered a steeper growth in the mid-bull market and gold in the late bull (probably, although of course it depends on conflictivity and the possible continued weakness of the US dollar). The reason was quite obvious: the ETF approval in early 2024 which was a major milestone for Bitcoin "as an investment".

If we compare volatility evolution with profitability evolution, we see that both reduce at a relatively similar pace:

- Volatility: from around 3,5-4% (9% max) in 2018-2021 to around 1,5% (3% max) in 2022-2025
- Profitability: From 2400% max in 2018-2021 to 700%+ max (we don't know if the peak is in) in 2022-2025

I generally see a healthy evolution towards a less volatile and risky asset. For me however the next bear market will be crucial: if the 75-85% drops continue, then Bitcoin stays speculative and risky for now.

[coyhasmon]

I think you know my stance about the influence of halvings -- that they don't matter anymore because miners aren't anymore a strong seller group if we take into amount total exchange volume.

You are absolutely right with this, I think people have trouble letting go and adapting whens something changes. Before the halving had a massive impact but these days it is very low. Another confusion arises through correlation of timing. Just because the bullish cycle happens in some relation to the halving cycle that does not mean that halving has still a big effect on it. According to Coingecko the circulating supply stands at 19,936,446 BTC. With 450 BTC being mined per day it is really nothing. Less mining always helps but not that much relatively speaking.

Thus I think we should still look at the bigger picture of this bull market, and if we look at the development between late 2022 (15-17k) and our current price at ~110k, then profitability has been exceptional (600-700% depending if we count the 126k spike or not). Gold, despite of its current insane bubble, has only reached around 120% since back then (~1750$ in late 2022, now 4100$). Only the pacing was different, Bitcoin encountered a steeper growth in the mid-bull market and gold in the late bull (probably, although of course it depends on conflictivity and the possible continued weakness of the US dollar). The reason was quite obvious: the ETF approval in early 2024 which was a major milestone for Bitcoin "as an investment".

People tend to make very unfair comparisons to make a point which just shows a rather sad level of bias and low level of education.  You can pick any specific dates or timeframes to make either BTC look better or gold look better depending on what you want to prove, that does not mean that the argument is valid. An objective comparison needs to be done in a proper way.

- Volatility: from around 3,5-4% (9% max) in 2018-2021 to around 1,5% (3% max) in 2022-2025
- Profitability: From 2400% max in 2018-2021 to 700%+ max (we don't know if the peak is in) in 2022-2025

I generally see a healthy evolution towards a less volatile and risky asset. For me however the next bear market will be crucial: if the 75-85% drops continue, then Bitcoin stays speculative and risky for now.

Let's say that it doesn't drop this time that much, how significant would you rate this on a scale to 10? A less than 50% drop would be optimal, but if it ends up even less than that like 30-40% that would be insanely bullish and a good sign of maturity. Wouldn't you say so?

[d5000]

Let's say that it doesn't drop this time that much, how significant would you rate this on a scale to 10? A less than 50% drop would be optimal, but if it ends up even less than that like 30-40% that would be insanely bullish and a good sign of maturity. Wouldn't you say so?

Of course. But the fast 15% drop in a single day (although helped by massive liquidations) recently hinted, for me, that 30-40% is still unrealistic for a full cyclic bear market, i.e. about a year or so with negative sentiment, like in 2018 or 2022.

If the ATH of this cycle isn't significantly higher than now, then I will keep observing the 50,000-60,000 level. This was the region where several dips in 2024 rebounded. It would be still a 60% drop (if we reach 50,000, or a slight detour into the high 40ks). But if you even in the worst case you can still expect to have 40% of your holdings at ATH level, then it's different psychologicall then when you only can expect 20-25%. As simple as it may seem, but 40% is 2 times 20%. It is a massive change.

Of course if we see much higher ATHs still in this bull run (let's say 130-150k are still realistic I think), then other levels I would observe is 65-70k (the 2021 "legacy ATH") and if price really reaches the 200k region, of course 100k.

[WillyAp]

The bitcoin market is no longer as volatile as it was in the past

The Bitcoin Drop of 14k surprised many. Many lost money and traders going short made a fortune.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/10/17/bitcoin-falls-to-lowest-since-june-as-various-factors-drive-losses/

For traders Gold is more interesting at the moment.
There is certain amount of flowing capital which impacts many commodities.   
 

[coyhasmon]

Let's say that it doesn't drop this time that much, how significant would you rate this on a scale to 10? A less than 50% drop would be optimal, but if it ends up even less than that like 30-40% that would be insanely bullish and a good sign of maturity. Wouldn't you say so?

Of course. But the fast 15% drop in a single day (although helped by massive liquidations) recently hinted, for me, that 30-40% is still unrealistic for a full cyclic bear market, i.e. about a year or so with negative sentiment, like in 2018 or 2022.

I would like to say that you should not rush to conclusions if I can be so frank. Does a flash crash of any asset signify a weakness in its current market conditions or can it be simply a reflection of different external conditions in combination with other factors. Look at this. If a $20 trillion asset like gold can crash 6% in a day, is it not realistic or normal for a $2 trillion asset to be able to crash 15%? If the 15% says something definite about the Bitcoin market  why doesn't the 5% say something definite about gold's market? https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/why-is-gold-down-today-gold-price-crashes-over-5-its-worst-single-day-drop-since-2013-silver-plunges-7/articleshow/124724560.cms

I think that we are entering new territories here for many reasons. Putting aside that Bitcoin itself is unique itself and the crazy economic global environment that we are in now, I want to bring forth perpetuals and futures. There has never been a time I think in the existence of markets that so many normal people had access to these tools. Most people who are using them are going to use them in a wrong way for there are good reasons they weren't giving wide access to people for this. As the market becomes overleveraged it creates unstable positions which create opportunities for those that are able to seize on them. I think that a regular flushing out of the leverage improves the health of the market.

If the ATH of this cycle isn't significantly higher than now, then I will keep observing the 50,000-60,000 level. This was the region where several dips in 2024 rebounded. It would be still a 60% drop (if we reach 50,000, or a slight detour into the high 40ks). But if you even in the worst case you can still expect to have 40% of your holdings at ATH level, then it's different psychologicall then when you only can expect 20-25%. As simple as it may seem, but 40% is 2 times 20%. It is a massive change.

Should this happen regardless of how much less exactly it is, how would you rate the significance of this on a scale to 10? You can ignore exactly where it will land as I was giving some examples. The question is directed to your own percentages, so anywhere less than 75-85% as we have seen in previous cycles.

[d5000]

I would like to say that you should not rush to conclusions if I can be so frank. Does a flash crash of any asset signify a weakness in its current market conditions or can it be simply a reflection of different external conditions in combination with other factors.

My interpretation comes from past experiences with the Bitcoin market: If we have significant crashes even in a still bullish sentiment, and there is only dip buying 15% below the start price of the flash crash, then I interpret that in this moment there was a slightly panick-y sentiment in the market. This kind of panic probably results from fears of catching a falling knife, with the previous 75-85% drawdowns in mind.

Thus what I conclude is that in a period with negative sentiment, be it from external influences (geopolitical situation, interest rates etc.) or internal Bitcoin events (exchange hacks, FUD about things like Tether ...), the price loss would be more than double of the 15% we recorded a week ago. It was also not only a flash crash: the price level lowered, and now we're still hovering at or below 110,000.

I also expect a gold correction in the near future, without knowing how deep it can go. Gold had several 50% drawdowns in the last 100 years. And the recent 6% crash may be a first indicator for it.

As the market becomes overleveraged it creates unstable positions which create opportunities for those that are able to seize on them. I think that a regular flushing out of the leverage improves the health of the market.

Good point, but I think in 2021 leveraged products like perpetuals and futures were already quite popular in the crypto market, and they contributed to the crashes. Institutional investors, which are this cycle's novelty, should have more experience with leveraging.

Should this happen regardless of how much less exactly it is, how would you rate the significance of this on a scale to 10? You can ignore exactly where it will land as I was giving some examples. The question is directed to your own percentages, so anywhere less than 75-85% as we have seen in previous cycles.

I don't really understand what you mean with that scale from 1 to 10. Significant for what exactly? Future bitcoin adoption expectations perhaps, i.e. a 10 hints to a strong bullish evolution and a 0 to Bitcoin's "death" ? In this case I would put a 30-40% drawdown until 1,5 years after the last ATH close to a 10, and a 50% at least at 8. Just to throw some numbers