We're experiencing the least volatile Bitcoin early (?) bear (?) market ever.

[coyhasmon]

My interpretation comes from past experiences with the Bitcoin market: If we have significant crashes even in a still bullish sentiment, and there is only dip buying 15% below the start price of the flash crash, then I interpret that in this moment there was a slightly panick-y sentiment in the market. This kind of panic probably results from fears of catching a falling knife, with the previous 75-85% drawdowns in mind.

Thus what I conclude is that in a period with negative sentiment, be it from external influences (geopolitical situation, interest rates etc.) or internal Bitcoin events (exchange hacks, FUD about things like Tether ...), the price loss would be more than double of the 15% we recorded a week ago. It was also not only a flash crash: the price level lowered, and now we're still hovering at or below 110,000.

I would say that the sentiment was pretty grim afterwards though. A large group of people went from bullish to bearish. Still how much can you attribute to panick-y sentiment versus chain liquidations? Wrapped Bitcoin is also available in those DeFi protocols and there are even chained positions that affect Bitcoin on shitcoin networks.

Good point, but I think in 2021 leveraged products like perpetuals and futures were already quite popular in the crypto market, and they contributed to the crashes. Institutional investors, which are this cycle's novelty, should have more experience with leveraging.

It was but not as much as it is now. Maybe you are not that familiar with the altcoin world but the most trendy thing now is perpetuals. Hyperliquid, Aster and many more protocols are coming. I think that the number of people using these things is significantly greater than even in 2021.

I don't really understand what you mean with that scale from 1 to 10. Significant for what exactly? Future bitcoin adoption expectations perhaps, i.e. a 10 hints to a strong bullish evolution and a 0 to Bitcoin's "death" ? In this case I would put a 30-40% drawdown until 1,5 years after the last ATH close to a 10, and a 50% at least at 8. Just to throw some numbers

Well maybe we can split it into two. Significance for Bitcoin overall and significance for the claims of extreme volatility or risk. Well you have given the answers but I wanted to clarify what I meant. It is you who wrote that this is kind of like the last remaining obstacle before we can objectively call Bitcoin not that volatile or risky anymore, something along those lines. I do agree with your observation though, since I've read it in your posts it is something that I am very eager to see happen.

After that change then then Bitcoin's change to lower volatility and risk will not be open to debate anymore, it will be a fact.

[d5000]

A little update.

We don't really know if we're still in a bull market. But the bull-bear transitions in late 2017 or late 2021 were among the most volatile periods in recent Bitcoin history.

And there's an extreme fear sentiment due to the dip below 90,000 USD. I saw even forum posts writing in the vein of "such a drop had never happened" And for the first time in years there are even doubts about (Micro)Strategy's business model, even if they feel still relatively unfounded.

But still, volatility is FAR away from what was recorded in similar occasions. In fact: it hovers now about and slightly below 2%. This is even less than in March 2025, when a ~30% dip was recorded bringing us from ~109k to ~75k, with 2,8% volatility (2,6% for the 60-day value). In 2022 instead we had spikes up to 4%.


Source as always: https://bitbo.io/volatility/

I have previously written that the "next goal" for Bitcoin's transformation into a more "solid" Store of Value would be to not surpass 2% volatility significantly anymore. It seems we are still on track, even if 2,04% were recorded yesterday.

[Abelly]

Maybe that's because we are not yet in a bitcoin-style bull market which is why the volatility appears to be less compared to the previous bull markets we have experienced.

It is natural that this is happening because the bull market is not yet fully formed, Everyone thinks that there is no volatility here, but in reality it is the pre-bull phase in the market where liquid gradually accumulates, support levels are strengthened and the VO of a big movement is created. Bull cycles are seen as 2 common things, "Volatility spike,, rapid supply.Dods.S shock,, these have not yet fully come to the market but it is not a bad thing. Looking at history, this kind of Low vol accumulation phase creates big things.
However, if we look at the past, we will see that the market should be just normal before the bull market starts.

[coyhasmon]

A little update.

We don't really know if we're still in a bull market. But the bull-bear transitions in late 2017 or late 2021 were among the most volatile periods in recent Bitcoin history.

I think the only correct observation in this cycle is that nobody knows anything and there are many people who pretend that they do for any number of reasons. I've seen all kinds of mistakes especially among leverage traders since the days just before the ETF approvals. I've seen calls from it is the same as each cycle to it is entirely different to everything in between. What can be said for sure is that a lot of people are full of HOPIUM and COPIUM because the situation is questionable. Obviously some people will be right with their predictions but not because they knew something but simply because every possible outcome was predicted by someone..

And there's an extreme fear sentiment due to the dip below 90,000 USD. I saw even forum posts writing in the vein of "such a drop had never happened" And for the first time in years there are even doubts about (Micro)Strategy's business model, even if they feel still relatively unfounded.

I think that saying that it is relatively unfounded is pretty generous. They are completely baseless claims. I've looked into the structure of Strategy and there is absolutely nothing that would make them tank other than a Bitcoin near-death experience. The debt compared to the assets is pretty slim. Listing or delisting on indices does not change this. The stock price crashing heavily also would not change this. It would impact their power to buy more Bitcoin in the future, but so what? That won't make the company bankrupt. It is overblown by proportion by those who have not even taken a Introduction to Finances class.

I have previously written that the "next goal" for Bitcoin's transformation into a more "solid" Store of Value would be to not surpass 2% volatility significantly anymore. It seems we are still on track, even if 2,04% were recorded yesterday.

Sounds good, we need more slowed price movements. Bitcoin can continue to appreciate in value and have a very low volatility as long as it does it slowly and consistently. Any reasonable price is reachable this way.

[Nalain420]

Maybe that's because we are not yet in a bitcoin-style bull market which is why the volatility appears to be less compared to the previous bull markets we have experienced.

It is natural that this is happening because the bull market is not yet fully formed, Everyone thinks that there is no volatility here, but in reality it is the pre-bull phase in the market where liquid gradually accumulates, support levels are strengthened and the VO of a big movement is created. Bull cycles are seen as 2 common things, "Volatility spike,, rapid supply.Dods.S shock,, these have not yet fully come to the market but it is not a bad thing. Looking at history, this kind of Low vol accumulation phase creates big things.
However, if we look at the past, we will see that the market should be just normal before the bull market starts.

We have been watching bitcoin for more than decade and many people have learned a lot from investment. It has motivated some people to trade in this market and many investor have made significant profit over time. But bitcoin market is volatile and price can move sharply up and down.

I have observed different market and gained experience by watching various trading platforms and many of my friend are involved in trading. Bitcoin can be relatively safe long term investment if person understand risk, avoid emotional decisions and follow long term plan. For people with short term mindset and little experience btc may not be suitable. When market goes down and such investor may panic and make wrong decisions and suffer losses.

[barbara44]

Yeah, it is true that we didn't go up too much and haven't gone down too much yet, that is a great thing of course for the most case but it is also important that we realize volatility isn't about just the size of the movement but the action of it.

It means, if it is up and down 10% every single week, that would be a very volatile market and as long as we have that, it is still going to be tough to get most of the big money. We are going to need to make sure that people realize we are less volatile now.

[As-Soon-As]

Yeah, it is true that we didn't go up too much and haven't gone down too much yet, that is a great thing of course for the most case but it is also important that we realize volatility isn't about just the size of the movement but the action of it.

It means, if it is up and down 10% every single week, that would be a very volatile market and as long as we have that, it is still going to be tough to get most of the big money. We are going to need to make sure that people realize we are less volatile now.

In this current situation, I think the correction that is happening in the Bitcoin market is the appropriate correction, because the Bitcoin market has already corrected from 124k dollars to 88k dollars at the present time. At the moment of this Bitcoin market correction, many Bitcoin holders are panicking, but if there is a 10% more correction from the current situation, more Bitcoin investors will panic. However, if the price of Bitcoin is above 100k dollars from the current situation, this will be the most appropriate. Why do dips sometimes occur and take the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin and buy from there.

[lornadane]

Low volatility is nice, but I wouldn’t get too comfortable. Macro events, ETFs flows, or a sudden liquidity shock can flip the switch fast. We’ve seen “boring” phases before that ended very violently. Good reminder for newbies to manage risk and not overleverage.

[d5000]

Good reminder for newbies to manage risk and not overleverage.

Indeed. I think flash crashes and flash spikes (like today's 90k spike which was rapidly "eaten" and we went back to 86k) will be still an issue for Bitcoin for some time even if volatility is generally lowering steadily. They are absolutely a non issue for those who HODL, but can lead to some short term liquidations causing frustration.

It's possible that these flash spikes will decrease too in the future when liquidity increases further, although the current market structure with many leveraged positions still favours it. The question is if the community can do something to mitigate that. For example, an idea I had for some time now is that people could trade products based on Bitcoin's moving averages. This removes the short term volatility. I have an idea how to do that with Discreet Log Contracts (thread is in German but can be easily translated), but there are still some challenges and these contracts may be difficult to understand for newbies. So maybe I'll wait to implement it once there's a decentralized sidechain with EVM capability which would make them easier.

[aysha9853]

What stands out to me is how different the market feels compared to earlier cycles back then every push up or down came with wild swings and a lot of emotional trading now price moves feel more controlled, probably because there’s deeper liquidity and more long term holders around.

[WillyAp]

And there's an extreme fear sentiment due to the dip below 90,000 USD. I saw even forum posts writing in the vein of "such a drop had never happened" And for the first time in years there are even doubts about (Micro)Strategy's business model, even if they feel still relatively unfounded.

People are fixed on Numbers.
Similar to a newspaper journalist claiming a Video is more important when 4 million watched it.
Borderline ridiculous is to believe it has meaning when the value dibs below 90k, remember BTC's beginning?
About 3cent.   

[d5000]

Another update.

The last four months were bearish, so I have changed the title. And there were some drastic drops and recoveries: from 120k to 80k, then again up to 95k, and then down to 60k. So one may think that volatility was quite high, right?

Volatility went up recently again in the recent dip, and stabilized on a value of 2.40% for the 30-day value. But it remains low when we look at historical values:



Both volatility spikes at the March 2025 dip (2.87%) and the November 2025 slide (2.53%) were more volatile than the 2.40% we're currently seeing.

Regarding the 60-days value, the decline is even clearer: from 2.44% in April 2025 to 2.24% in November/December and current value is 1.87%. However, as this indicator tends to lag, it's likely the 1.87% will not be the highest value, but as long as we don't see a drastic dip below 60k it doesn't seem it will reach the 2%.

Between these spikes, the value always returns to about 1% (recent low in January 2026: 0.95%).

As always I've added a line as comparison: the Brazilian Real volatility (BRL), which is between 0.3% and 1.3%, mostly hovering around 0.5-0.7%. That's the mark to beat in the next years to be usable as a currency, and I'm still optimistic this is possible before 2030. Long term trend remains unchanged:

[Lucius]

~snip~
As always I've added a line as comparison: the Brazilian Real volatility (BRL), which is between 0.3% and 1.3%, mostly hovering around 0.5-0.7%. That's the mark to beat in the next years to be usable as a currency, and I'm still optimistic this is possible before 2030. Long term trend remains unchanged:

Do you think that the attitude of ordinary people will ever change to such an extent that they start using Bitcoin as a currency? Most people invest in BTC just for profit, and when you look at what all the famous individuals and companies are doing, then the vision of BTC as a stable cryptocurrency is very far away.

My opinion is that volatility is not something you should count on going away, because you can have months of stability and then someone decides to dump a few hundred thousand BTC and crash the price by xx%. In addition, those who want to use BTC as a currency are still doing so today, regardless of volatility.

[Ambatman]

Do you think that the attitude of ordinary people will ever change to such an extent that they start using Bitcoin as a currency? Most people invest in BTC just for profit, and when you look at what all the famous individuals and companies are doing, then the vision of BTC as a stable cryptocurrency is very far away.

I agree with most of what you said well except the bolded part
Gold supposed safe haven or sign of stability or hedge against inflation isn't really stable
It's quite volatile
Even Fiat, the dollar for example has some level of volatility
At the end of the day Stability here is relative.


And yes Bitcoin used as a currency is becoming more and more of a fairy tale
The government and most institutions push it as digital Gold and never as a currency
That tells the trajectory they would be comfortable Bitcoin following.

My opinion is that volatility is not something you should count on going away,

Options and leverages are really pushing volatility
And creating something akin to paper Bitcoin
Hence why supply shocks are barely felt.

[d5000]

Do you think that the attitude of ordinary people will ever change to such an extent that they start using Bitcoin as a currency? Most people invest in BTC just for profit, and when you look at what all the famous individuals and companies are doing, then the vision of BTC as a stable cryptocurrency is very far away.

It doesn't currently look like that, but from a "practical" point of view I think there are chances for such a change.

If there are increasingly more Bitcoin hodlers, even those purely holding for profit, there likely will be more merchants that will take that as an opportunity. I get the impression that the BTC-accepting merchant network is currently growing, even if it does so "silently" without much buzz. In addition, there are some advantages for merchants if their customers pay in Bitcoin, like no chargeback fraud, and no credit card fees, and fast payments (credit card payments look instant but are finally credited in a couple of days).

That silent but steady increase in opportunities to spend Bitcoins could attract increasingly more holders to spend BTC instead of selling them once they have made a good profit, some may try out Lightning. Some merchant may lauch promotions and discounts directed specifically at Bitcoin payers.

That dynamic is very slow still but could eventually a tipping point and it would become popular to pay in Bitcoin, mostly via 2nd layers.

My opinion is that volatility is not something you should count on going away, because you can have months of stability and then someone decides to dump a few hundred thousand BTC and crash the price by xx%.

This is what it looks like at a first glance. But if you look at the stats I linked here in the thread, then you see that the volatility is slowly but steadily decreasing. There are market situations where increased volatility is still normal, like capitulation-style dips like the recent 60k dip, or "the New Paradigm moment" in the bull run. But each FOMO spike and each dip is a little bit less volatile than the dip before (with exceptions, of course).

The trend is straightforward until now: if we go from 5% spikes (2021-22) to 2.4%-3% spikes (2025-26) in 4 years (a single medium-term bull-bear "cycle") then the next cycle, if the trend continues, the spikes will be around 1.5%-2%. This would not be far away from the Brazilian Real (I chose it because it's an "average" currency with some importance) with its 1-1.3% spikes.

(I just saw @Ambatman's post but it goes into a very similar direction, so that's also my answer for you, Ambatman )

[Ambatman]

(I just saw @Ambatman's post but it goes into a very similar direction, so that's also my answer for you, Ambatman )

Oh I agreed on falling volatility just that volatility can never be eliminated even Gold and Fiat have some level of volatility.
Like every worthy asset once they start maturing volatility reduces
For example
2011 cycle 95%
2013 cycle 90%
2017 cycle 87%
2021 cycle 76%
2026 cycle 40%+ so far
Rough estimate but we can tell that fall from ATH are also reducing.

If there are increasingly more Bitcoin hodlers, even those purely holding for profit, there likely will be more merchants that will take that as an opportunity.

Assuming volatility continue to fall but as long as Fiat exist
Many would still prefer using Fiat for payment since Bitcoin is deflationary.
Like I said the narrative being pushed is that Bitcoin is Gold not a currency.
Merchants would want to accept Bitcoin but how many users would want to part with it.

Mind you Bitcoin is still young hence why there are still doubt
If it's still around in the next decade then it wouldn't be something that people would want to part with
A block would contain only 0.78 BTC not to mention striving in a decade means
It has survive the delicate stage of entering into the world (sight of the government and institutions)

[Lucius]

~snip~
Like I said the narrative being pushed is that Bitcoin is Gold not a currency.

And who is pushing this narrative? Those who have the most power and the most BTC in their possession. If we consider that most people in the world blindly follow those who have political power and who are extremely wealthy, then how can we expect anything to change in terms of how the average person perceives BTC?

What we also lack is general interest in BTC, and I think that from 2009 to today we have at best about 5% of people in the world who are involved in BTC in any way, and on the other hand, millions of BTC have been bought by people who see them as something completely different than currency.

[WatChe]

I have actually had the prediction that the sign for a bull market will be this Q4, although the start of this Q4 was a bearish one I think the dust is settling down gradually and there is a probability of we starting the bull run this year. Base on my predictions if the bitcoin price holds $65k as its local support for entirety of this month then we could actually be reaching a new all time high soon, there is a resistance at $71k that if broken will set us to head to $80k which is my prediction for this year

The price of Bitcoin is roaming in between 65 ~ 70k for quite a while now and it will be interesting to see whether price moves up from this window or go further down towards 60k. In case price goes further down towards 60k then it will take a time for Bitcoin to regain its lost momentum. There are evidences from past that whenever Bitcoin rise to its ATH, the price went down afterwards and stay there for sometime. The price is down now but I am sure Q3 and Q4 will likely take Bitcoin price to higher levels, we need to remain patience till that time. 

[d5000]

Oh I agreed on falling volatility just that volatility can never be eliminated even Gold and Fiat have some level of volatility.

I agree that Bitcoin will probably never fall to the volatility level of major fiat currencies like the US dollar (even if even the USD fell about 15% vs. the EUR in the last years).

My point is for Bitcoin adoption it would be positive to reach a lower volatility to be really usable at least for saving by everyday people who cannot afford to lose 50% in a capitulation crash nor to buy just into the moment of maximum FOMO and then lose 50% too because that price level was unsustainable.

Gold volatility (which has ramped up in the last year) or an "average fiat currency" like the BRL (which tends to go up and down but has a higher volatility than the USD and the EUR) would be the goalpost to reach.

Many would still prefer using Fiat for payment since Bitcoin is deflationary.
Like I said the narrative being pushed is that Bitcoin is Gold not a currency.
Merchants would want to accept Bitcoin but how many users would want to part with it.

That's why I mentioned discounts. If it is advantageous for merchants to receive payments in BTC, then they will resort to promotions for BTC buyers.

For example, if a merchant has 10% less cost in total in BTC considering credit/debit card fees, chargeback fraud, clearing time and on the other side resting volatility cost, then he may be able to offer 20% discounts on selected articles for BTC payers just to attract this crowd and reduce the total cost. And if they do promotions anyway, for example because their storage is full, they may go much lower for BTC payers than for fiat payers.

The volatility cost is still to high for this to work, probably, at least to that extent (and thus most BTC-accepting merchants will use Bitcoin payment processors with only slightly lower fees than credit cards). But if volatility reached around half the current value, it may be possible to generate such a dynamic.

[WillyAp]

That's why I mentioned discounts. If it is advantageous for merchants to receive payments in BTC, then they will resort to promotions for BTC buyers.

For example, if a merchant has 10% less cost in total in BTC considering credit/debit card fees, chargeback fraud, clearing time and on the other side resting volatility cost, then he may be able to offer 20% discounts on selected articles for BTC payers just to attract this crowd and reduce the total cost. And if they do promotions anyway, for example because their storage is full, they may go much lower for BTC payers than for fiat payers.

BTC is no suitable for payments. It could drop or even raise 2k in 2 Minutes, it takes up to 3 days should you not use the lightning network.
Most people holding and willing to pay with BTC are savvy enough to swap BTC into LTC, USDT or other cryptos.