What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ?

[Josefjix]

Bitcoin have the capacity to reach 100k before the end of December 2024 this is my predictions about although even at bitcoin have the tendency to reach that price and for that we need to also look out for other aspects and factors that could make such a price benchmark unachievable for bitcoin, because as we predict positive market outcome, we should also expect any possibility of an opposite reaction from the market.

If I may ask us this simple question for clarity sake, do bitcoin have the market liquidity that can propel that price level, whatever your answer is so will the prediction go in that direction also.

[Swordsoffreedom]

You are also someone who has been in the market long enough to know that no one can predict bitcoin, the future is unpredictable. I don't think anyone can give you the answer you're looking for, but if you just want to listen to people's predictions for the price of bitcoin by the end of this year, I believe most people think the same as you. Everyone, including me, wants bitcoin to hit $100k by the end of this year or as soon as possible because people have been waiting for it for so long. But after all, it's just our expectation and it may or may not happen.

I hope that happens but realistically with the current political turmoil, I don't think we're going to have a bull market this year. I hope bitcoin price will hit $100,000 but if we accept the reality of what is happening then the chances of that happening are very low.

[d5000]

-snip-

Thanks for the simulations and the CSV data

It is interesting that your AI generated script is a whole bit longer than my manually written one, haha. But it functionally is identic.

The results don't surprise me too much, although the 2020 timeframe is more bullish than I had thought

I'd guess a probability between 5 and 20% is realistic until the end of 2024, so on a whole I think this approach makes sense. The 100k are not impossible but not too likely as well. For my own crystal ball, I'd tend more to the higher end of these predictions, because we all know what can happen once euphoria and FOMO starts. 1 in 5 is reasonable thus.