[US Election 2024] discussion thread.

[theymos]

On election day, here are what the forecasts are saying:

Source	President EV	Senate seats	House seats
FiveThirtyEight	D 270-268	R 52-48	D 218-217
The Economist	D 270-268	R 51-49	D 218-217
The Hill	R 276-262	R 53-47	R 218-217
RealClearPolling	R 287-251	R 52-48	-
Polymarket	R 287-251	R 52-48	-
Kalshi	R 287-251	R 52-48	-
Metaculus	D 274-269	-	-
My gut	D 276-262	R 51-49	D 218-217

We'll see which one ends up being the most accurate. (Though we probably won't know the full House results for weeks.)

[sky999]

Kamala will win 270-268

[Minor Miner]

Can stock market help predict the U.S election? - CNN

An ongoing discussion in CNN.
Relating this to crypto, the investment analyst said that stocks rising the week before election shows good sign for the incoming. Could this be related to the recent rise in BTC price last week.
However the analyst believes Trump might not be the president.

The US election is highly unpredictable. Even polls are not reliable in predicting who will become the next president. I remember vividly that most polls favoured Hilary Clinton in the 2016 elections but the opposite happened. The stock market can react to any slight political or economic sentiment, that's normal.

Based on current polls the election will be a very tight one because both candidates almost have an equal probability of winning. But there is a huge gender divide with female voters favouring Harris, and male voters likely to support Trump.

Similarly, the 2020 polls all showed Trump would win but the results were completely opposite. So it can be said that opinion polls are completely unreliable, they are just tools used by the 2 parties to manipulate the crowd. Or the odds displayed on betting sites are also unreliable, everything seems to be manipulated in favor of the candidate they support.

But I think we don't need to waste any more time because the official election is just a few hours away. We will know the results as soon as the election ends and the preliminary vote count is complete.

Some people think that the market will reflect the election results but I don't think so and I think the financial markets in general will be very volatile right on election day.

[pooya87]

Are businesses bracing for the upcoming chaos by adding "fortification"?





#landofdemocracy

[Kelward]

Whoever ends up winning the election, my personal prediction is there will be some chaos in voting places, because of collective psychosis and the conspiracy theories going around. I believe there has been already someone who went to a voting place to intimidate people with a machete in Florida, and we are not even on voting day yet. At this point I would not be surprised if people showed up to voting places wielding AR-15s because Freedom and weapon rights.

I am planning to avoid much of political social media accounts and the news in election day, for the sake of my mental health and I would recommend most people to do the same think. If you are a voter, go vote and ignore news, just go to sleep and wake up next morning fresh to realize who won and do not make a big deal out of it, this is democracy and it is supposed to be the choice of the people.

You've painted the scenerios in most polling units on election day in my country, seeing thugs harassing and intimidating voters in voting centers is a normal thing. Voting card readers not working and I wouldn't be in the know if it's part of election rigging. Especially in areas where a preferred candidate is not popular, ballot box snatching is a regular occurances, that is our experiences.

But if a country like the US that is supposed to be a role model to these countries where there's allegedly no free and fair elections, then democracy is dying. I hope that you're just speculating the worst case scenerio on the US election day, and there's no pointer that crisis can actually erupt on that day in some parts of that country. I want to believe that Americans have gone beyond electoral violence, but if it happens, then it'll encourage some backward countries for their thugs to unleash violence on their own election day.

[Zlantann]

Are businesses bracing for the upcoming chaos by adding "fortification"?

Maybe the incident of January 6, 2021, when the supporters of Donald Trump invaded the capitol is still fresh in the memory of most business owners. If the mob have the guts to attack an important building that some political analyst calls a "temple to democracy", then no business is safe. I am not surprised that businesses are preparing for the unknown because with Trump contesting anything can happen including violent protests, looting and a potential coup d'etat. It reminds me of how we travel to rural areas during elections because the cities are usually unsafe.

[KingsDen]

Are businesses bracing for the upcoming chaos by adding "fortification"?

Maybe the incident of January 6, 2021, when the supporters of Donald Trump invaded the capitol is still fresh in the memory of most business owners. If the mob have the guts to attack an important building that some political analyst calls a "temple to democracy", then no business is safe. I am not surprised that businesses are preparing for the unknown because with Trump contesting anything can happen including violent protests, looting and a potential coup d'etat. It reminds me of how we travel to rural areas during elections because the cities are usually unsafe.

Chaos will be prevented if any candidate that losses concede defeat and congratulate the other. By this, the atmosphere and their supporters will be calm.
If Harris losses, she can concede but the same thing cannot be said of Trump. So, for there not to be chaos, Trump needs to win.

[Hispo]

Are businesses bracing for the upcoming chaos by adding "fortification"?





#landofdemocracy

It makes sense, doesnt it? they recall what happened in January 6th in Washington and they do not want to take any chances when people rioting in the streets.
Besides, I am pretty sure the insurance prices for businesses in big cities have gone up and those who cannot longer afford those rates see very wise to board up their windows and doors before any chaos ensues.
But I agree with you in how ironic all of this is, coming for the so-called land of democracy and land of law, in where businesses are scared of their own people breaking through windows and stealing as much as they can carry. In countries which are obvious being steered by a strong man and authoritarian leader like in China and Russia a view like this before an "election" would be a rarity...

[BADecker]

But nobody needs to worry. There isn't any widespread FBI rioting instigation like there was at the Capitol January 6.

[OgNasty]

Are businesses bracing for the upcoming chaos by adding "fortification"?

Maybe the incident of January 6, 2021, when the supporters of Donald Trump invaded the capitol is still fresh in the memory of most business owners. If the mob have the guts to attack an important building that some political analyst calls a "temple to democracy", then no business is safe. I am not surprised that businesses are preparing for the unknown because with Trump contesting anything can happen including violent protests, looting and a potential coup d'etat. It reminds me of how we travel to rural areas during elections because the cities are usually unsafe.

Chaos will be prevented if any candidate that losses concede defeat and congratulate the other. By this, the atmosphere and their supporters will be calm.
If Harris losses, she can concede but the same thing cannot be said of Trump. So, for there not to be chaos, Trump needs to win.

Whatever reasoning people have is fine with me.  Just vote for Trump and all will be well.  lol

I've been asking Grok today what the odds of Trump winning the Presidential election are throughout the day today.  The first time I did it Grok said Trump had a 58.5% chance of winning.  Then a while ago I asked again and Grok said Trump had a 60.3% chance of winning.  I just asked again now and Grok says that Trump has a 60% chance of winning.  I like those odds, but I'll start feeling better in a couple more hours when polls start reporting official results.

[KingsDen]

Are businesses bracing for the upcoming chaos by adding "fortification"?

Maybe the incident of January 6, 2021, when the supporters of Donald Trump invaded the capitol is still fresh in the memory of most business owners. If the mob have the guts to attack an important building that some political analyst calls a "temple to democracy", then no business is safe. I am not surprised that businesses are preparing for the unknown because with Trump contesting anything can happen including violent protests, looting and a potential coup d'etat. It reminds me of how we travel to rural areas during elections because the cities are usually unsafe.

Chaos will be prevented if any candidate that losses concede defeat and congratulate the other. By this, the atmosphere and their supporters will be calm.
If Harris losses, she can concede but the same thing cannot be said of Trump. So, for there not to be chaos, Trump needs to win.

Whatever reasoning people have is fine with me.  Just vote for Trump and all will be well.  lol

I've been asking Grok today what the odds of Trump winning the Presidential election are throughout the day today.  The first time I did it Grok said Trump had a 58.5% chance of winning.  Then a while ago I asked again and Grok said Trump had a 60.3% chance of winning.  I just asked again now and Grok says that Trump has a 60% chance of winning.  I like those odds, but I'll start feeling better in a couple more hours when polls start reporting official results.

Grok was right.
Ask Grok the chances of BTC reaching $100k this month