US national bitcoin reserve fund....?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Has anyone seen this article?  Bitcoin has been getting a lot of mention on Yahoo Finance, some of it interesting, some of it not--but this write up had me scratching my head.

There's a senator apparently proposing this, but then there's an explanation by some guy George Tung from CryptosRus, which I've never heard of (and I've not googled it).  In any event, this so-called reserve fund is supposed to be earmarked for repayment of the US's debt, something I'd find extremely risky at best given how volatile bitcoin is.  

In order to justify the clickbait-y headline, there's some speculation that other countries might also start buying in an act of global keeping-up-with-the-Joneses, which in the media constitutes an arms race.  As to why those countries would need to follow the US's bitcoin buying spree, who knows?  No need to explain that when the writer of this can then add in corporate purchases and make the leap to this:

he scenario Tung describes grows even more intense if corporations join the race, such as BlackRock's speculated involvement. He asserts, "If four entities try to buy 40% of the supply...that alone will drive bitcoin into the millions." He highlights how limited the global supply of bitcoin is, mentioning that even smaller countries, like Bhutan and El Salvador, have already started acquiring significant amounts of bitcoin.

Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell recently used the same logic to say he may need to adjust his $115,000 price target higher.

I'm curious as to what you all think about this article, this idea, or anything related to it.  Me?  I think it's total BS (though definitely bullish), but I tend to scoff at most crap that gets published online, especially if it's financial news--but I never rule out the possibility that I'm being a moron.

[bittraffic]

Anything that makes them feel better in the future because of BTC price going up is worth entertaining even if its almost impossible. It didn't stop them from entertaining the thought of it.

Trump is quite an odd old man but anything that pulls our leg can become serious at some point after we see how congress today discussing alien technology that made the Flight MH370 disappear. We're all in for a surprise of our life. Wherever this Bitcoin Reserve funds goes I'm down with it. 

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

There is going to be more changes in views about bitcoin and the peoples mindset over it this year, this is starting from the narrative of how the presidential election make it more faster to have the all time high, this alone has signal a lot of interpretation on US, now they are on the complacent zone and cant help themselves over the basic decision they are taking on bitcoin, while knowing that other countries are still there waiting for their action or inaction to determine what moves they are also going to take, for now, we may go with whatever decision or name they called it, as long as its what makes the positive vibes within the bitcoin network.

[Majestic-milf]

 Buying 5% of the total Bitcoin supply and expecting other countries to join in and see it as a competition to know who can out buy the other smells like them trying to control the market to me. If you buy such an amount with the aim of making a reserve where you can pay off your debts is not only risky but foolish as well. What if these countries you are expecting to catch the bait and panic buy don't fall for it and Bitcoin being  a volatile coin does what it knows how to do best keeps fluctuating in price? That would be utterly foolish but since it's a plan senator Cynthia Lummis is trying to pitch to president Trump, I just hope it ends there; as a plan and not a reality.

[Ambatman]

Fiat is not the best as a reserve or store of value not to mention the government creating more debt by printing more money.
Yes a scenario like this would be very bullish for Bitcoin and could create a kind of a ceiling that prices wouldn't fall lower than.
If a country starts something especially one as big as the US is successful
Other countries would want to do the same but all this are possible if US truly chooses to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve.

[Alpha Marine]

Emphasizing bitcoin's rarity, Tung states, "There’s just not enough to go around,"

This is the part of the article I disagree with the most.
With governments of different countries buying Bitcoin and trying to outbuy each other, the price of Bitcoin will only keep rising. If the US buys 5% and China decides to buy more, the price of bitcoin will only keep rising. if they could buy 1000btc at 100k, they wouldn't be able to buy the same amount of bitcoin at $1 million. So there will always be enough to go around.
The same applies to normal people. The worth of our $100 while bitcoin is $89k would still be the same worth when it's 1 million dollars.
The point is, that the higher the price, the more difficult it would be for people to purchase more of it.

[KingsDen]

The sceptical chymist, I know you are either a US citizen or a resident. You should understand the country better. I have so much positive inclination to the article you shared. If I were to be the government of any country, let alone a powerful country like US, I'll use bitcoin to my advantage.

Check this;
Bitcoin remains limited in supply;
If America buys huge and make waves about it, so many countries will buy into the idea and bitcoin will surge so high. They can pay debt with it and repeat same in next circle.
Before the end of next year, wait for bitcoin at $175k+. I am no longer skeptical.

[nelson4lov]

The national reserve fund idea is bullish for Bitcoin's price but net bearish for the tech and consensus if certain countries buy up majority of the supply. Price will go up but what we all grew to love about Bitcoin will become a thing of the past. Imo, this was always going to happen some point in Bitcoin future especially as bitcoin becomes a global movement not just for countries but for individuals in these countries.

Everyone backs a winner.

[hyudien]

Check this;
Bitcoin remains limited in supply;
If America buys huge and make waves about it, so many countries will buy into the idea and bitcoin will surge so high. They can pay debt with it and repeat same in next circle.
Before the end of next year, wait for bitcoin at $175k+. I am no longer skeptical.

As long as the US is the spark then other countries will surely follow, so basically we just need to see how far the new Trump administration will side with Bitcoin and if indeed the national reserve fund is more than 5% for bitcoin then everything is clear that the price will be increasingly out of control.

[BlackBoss_]

In any event, this so-called reserve fund is supposed to be earmarked for repayment of the US's debt, something I'd find extremely risky at best given how volatile bitcoin is.  

Bitcoin is volatile and times for x20, x100 or x60,000 are long gone away. I believe in bullish future of Bitcoin, but I am realistic that it is volatile in short term and within one market cycle and times for super parabolic bull run gone.

Bitcoin will only help the USA. to pay partial of its national debt, not all of its national debt. It's impossible.

As to why those countries would need to follow the US's bitcoin buying spree, who knows?

It is like domino effects. It's all related to money and benefit so if people as individual investors, institutional investors or governmental investors, have many reasons to join a good party.

El Salvador is a first nation started governmental investment in Bitcoin, and some years later we have Bhutan. Soon, more countries will join Bitcoin party and there is enough time and chance for their participation.

[pinggoki]

I don't even see the merit of paying their debts because they're printing the debts themselves right? Totally agree that it is volatile so I doubt that it's something that the proposed bitcoin fund is going to be used to pay off the debt and at the same time, I think that they know that volatility can go both ways which means that there's definitely a possibility that things are going to be for the long-term with this fund. It's a really good news for hodlers though, I mean with bitcoin being noticed by the US government and they have the prospects of investing in it (although the intentions are not yet clear or if the investment is confirmed), the patience of so many people are definitely going to pay off, hopefully I can still catch up to my goal of 0.1 btc before that big price pump happens.

[Darker45]

If the US starts buying it, my country might follow suit. Probably right away and for no other reason than that its former colonizer is doing it. I don't know how many countries are like ours, but it seems the US is being constantly referenced when decisions are to be made locally. Murica adopts this, we might as well adopt it, too. Murica is doing this, we might as well do it, too. They eat their own shit in Murica, we should also be eating our own shit here. No more debates, they're doing this in Murica; we'll do it here, too.

The article is poorly written, though. The sarcasm of Peter Schiff seems more precise.


https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1856739540762775662

[Rustam Meraj]

There is going to be more changes in views about bitcoin and the peoples mindset over it this year, this is starting from the narrative of how the presidential election make it more faster to have the all time high, this alone has signal a lot of interpretation on US, now they are on the complacent zone and cant help themselves over the basic decision they are taking on bitcoin, while knowing that other countries are still there waiting for their action or inaction to determine what moves they are also going to take, for now, we may go with whatever decision or name they called it, as long as its what makes the positive vibes within the bitcoin network.

Yes Bitcoin value is changing due to changing views especially after US presidential election which led to its ATH. Now US is cautious while other countries are watching and waiting. This makes sense given Bitcoin history of going up and down. Bitcoin future depends on four main things more people using it worldwide and and big companies investing and changing laws and rules and people attitudes towards it. Bitcoin still has long way to go with predictions suggesting it could reach $200k by 2030.

[JiiBs]

In any event, this so-called reserve fund is supposed to be earmarked for repayment of the US's debt, something I'd find extremely risky at best given how volatile bitcoin is.

I’m not very receptive of the idea as if spells foul play, given that, Bitcoin would be sort out for in this regard, not for the technology but for the pump price of it. Where they would buy in with an aim to pump the price and surely, it would go bullish as, come the US, come other nations and allies to the US, whom would take there aim far off from the US, buy and like it’s said, used to pay debts. That would do much good for Bitcoin as if not properly managed, the sales could create dump in price.

I'm curious as to what you all think about this article, this idea, or anything related to it.  Me?  I think it's total BS (though definitely bullish), but I tend to scoff at most crap that gets published online, especially if it's financial news--but I never rule out the possibility that I'm being a moron.

You use words in quite a beautiful way, would be reading much from you with an intention, hope that doesn’t call for anything.

Yeah, lots of craps online as most is for clicks and mindless speculations just to have something up for views and clicks.

[Die_empty]

I'm curious as to what you all think about this article, this idea, or anything related to it.  Me?  I think it's total BS (though definitely bullish), but I tend to scoff at most crap that gets published online, especially if it's financial news--but I never rule out the possibility that I'm being a moron.

I don't see this news as total bullshit because most of the financial news especially about crypto is based on speculations. The predictions of George Tung can happen only if Donald Trump decides to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve fund. Other nations are copycats of US policies, so we expect them to do the same thing. If this happens which is very possible we might see the scrambling for Bitcoin just as Western powers scrambled for African territories. We all are expecting this good news which will definitely take Bitcoin price to the moon.

[Plaguedeath]

Yeah it's nothing new most of countries will follow what the US did except China and Russia because they have their own power.

This might be last huge effect in Bitcoin, I don't think we will see a big change anymore if the government already adopt Bitcoin.

Bitcoin still has long way to go with predictions suggesting it could reach $200k by 2030.

That's too late I guess, with Bitcoin almost hit $90K before Q4 in the next year (it's supposed to be the peak in the current cycle), Bitcoin might reach $200K in the current cycle, without need to wait for 6 years.

[Yaunfitda]

Buying 5% of the total Bitcoin supply and expecting other countries to join in and see it as a competition to know who can out buy the other smells like them trying to control the market to me. If you buy such an amount with the aim of making a reserve where you can pay off your debts is not only risky but foolish as well. What if these countries you are expecting to catch the bait and panic buy don't fall for it and Bitcoin being  a volatile coin does what it knows how to do best keeps fluctuating in price? That would be utterly foolish but since it's a plan senator Cynthia Lummis is trying to pitch to president Trump, I just hope it ends there; as a plan and not a reality.

I don't think that could be their plan, to compete with other countries as far as buying and holding Bitcoin. From what I interpret, they just wanted to make Bitcoin as national reserves but they are not any numbers that they have in their minds for now, on how big this plan is.

They already have some if I'm not mistaken, so they just have to buy more, and just like what traditional investors is, buying in DCA and see where the price is going. The good thing is that we are entering the final year of the bull run, so that could really be big for us, if US starting to buy more that will really push the price to above $100k in 2025 and we might really be in for a big surprises as to what will be the all time high this bull cycle.

[hyudien]

According to Cointelegraph Pennsylvania has proposed a 10% reserve fund in bitcoin, with the East Coast state seemingly realizing the potential of bitcoin. The bill has yet to be approved but Pennsylvania representatives are optimistic that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. The outcome of the US election will surely make some states that already have plans in the pipeline want to make sure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill gets full support soon.

[Faisal2202]

I'm curious as to what you all think about this article, this idea, or anything related to it.  Me?  I think it's total BS (though definitely bullish), but I tend to scoff at most crap that gets published online, especially if it's financial news--but I never rule out the possibility that I'm being a moron.

So some senator wants to buy 1.05 Million BTC (5% of the total supply) to reserve them to get loan and pay back the loans of US. AFAIK Satoshi have 1.1 million BTC and most of the companies in US like BR, MS and all the other combined acquired more than these figures and if we combine the total amount of BTC seized from many project under the possession of US are in billions.

Considering the amount of BTC are in USA they surely are the most adopted countries in the world and I don't think any other country could compete with them now as they are on the top and they own most of the BTC if combined. Another thing is them acquiring these much BTC will surely pump the price but when they will pay their debts back the price will dumb too. It's a risky proposal for the crypto market too but I want it to happen haha it will really pump the price to almost $500k. I might not make generational wealth but still haha.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

The article is poorly written, though. The sarcasm of Peter Schiff seems more precise.
<snip>

That tweet sounds like something I've heard before.  Didn't some politician make a proposal years ago for buying bitcoin in order to fix the Social Security problem that's inevitably going to happen? 

Whatever the case may be, any country buying bitcoin for any purpose (with taxpayers' dollars, I remind you) is extremely risky--and no matter how big a fan you or I may be of bitcoin, I don't think governments ought to be dabbling in it.  And not just because of the risk; it goes against everything bitcoin stands for.  I'm curious as to whether this story is going to be followed up on.