Saylor/MSTR is playing a bit of a different game in terms of using other people's money to accumulated bitcoin that is largely (but not completely) unencumbered.. so the measure of his prosperity and the prosperity of MSTR is that they own 735k bitcoin.. it is not the measure of how much that it cost them per BTC ..
This is why if you hear Micheal Saylor then he is not much worried about current price of Bitcoin because he is focusing on long term price of Bitcoin, which according to him will be huge. This is not only stance of Saylor but majority of us that Bitcoin price will continue to grow high in future.
My point is that most people are not in a good place to attempt to emulate Saylor/MSTR except perhaps trying to buy regularly and trying to stay within their own budget.
It is way the fuck more important for normie newbies to stay within their budget than to try to fuck around with overly aggressive approaches to bitcoin accumulation - including that many people, even sophisticated players who had been trying to follow Saylor's approach ended up getting themselves screwed because they were going beyond their own budget limitations.
DCA, the topic of this thread, allows newbies (and even more experienced investors) to tailor their level of aggressiveness to their own budget without trying to fuck around with fancy techniques and also without having to market their techniques. Part of Saylor/MSTR's approach also seems to involve providing various products to sell so that people put money into their products rather than buying actual bitcoin.. and an overwhelming majority of normal people would be better off to focus on accumulating actual bitcoin and even making sure to self-custody their own bitcoin, perhaps even using their bitcoin and/or spending and replacing and getting acquainted with various ways to use their bitcoin, even while they are building up their bitcoin stash..
Saylor's products are distractions, even if it could well be the case that he/his company and/or his custodian(s) actually have the quantity of bitcoin that they proclaim to have, the extent that they are not some sort of PsyOp that is looking to distract normies into thinking that paper products are better than actually owning bitcoin - even though surely earlier in Saylor's involvement in bitcoin he did frequently promote the holding of actual bitcoin, which he does not emphasize the holding of bitcoin as much as he had been doing in his earlier years in bitcoin.
The maturity of the asset does not so much have to do with its age within the number of years, but instead of its level of adoption and the growth of the various network effects
as outlined by Trace Mayer.Also these seven points can be a motivating factor that why to invest in Bitcoin for long term because of factors like merchant adoption, security and more. Merchnats have incentive in adopting Bitcoin because through that way they can get credit card fees and chargebacks provided the delay is transaction is settled for them and we have already something for it in the form of LN. All these seven indicators are pointing towards positive future growth of Bitcoin.
We seem to have ongoing problems of governments providing coercion and even accounting requirements, and it would be way better if they allowed a certain level of transactions without having to report or to potentially pay taxes (beyond the transaction taxes), which produces a lot of disincentives for folks (or merchant's) to officially advertise themselves as accepting bitcoin - even though the Franchise "Steak and Shake" have apparently been doing well with their bitcoin (and lightning) acceptance and other creative things they are doing to provide extra payments to their employees in bitcoin - even though it takes a while for the extra bitcoin payments to vest for the Steak and Shake employees. Apparently, the bitcoin payment method that Steak and Shake is doing for its employees is like a bitcoin-tailored retirement plan.
We cannot completely know if bitcoins network effects will continue to grow, even though they have been ongoingly growing and there really isn't any evidence to establish that bitcoin's network effects are going to stop growing - even if there are ongoing attacks on bitcoin and even desires to co-opt it and/or to attempt to change its nature.
You are right that we are not sure about future of Bitcoin network effects but if we think that why nothing is predictable about other asset of investment. We need to do proper research on Bitcoin and once we are convinced that Bitcoin is good asset of investment then we must not look back rather keep investing. If we remain skeptical then we might not take full advantage of Bitcoin.
If we are investing in bitcoin and perhaps we are ongoingly learning about bitcoin, then we can make adjustments (up and/or down) in regards to how much time, energy and/or value that we are putting into it based on what we might have had thought bitcoin is and any changes to our perceptions of what it is.
So, maybe initially, when we come to bitcoin, we have a very superficial understanding, and perhaps even a lot of wrong understandings, yet we still might start to invest into it, but start to invest in such a way that we are prepared for either price direction, but also perhaps having some surprises in terms of the extent to which some variation of our expectation ends up coming into play.
Ongoingly in bitcoin, people have been worried about various governmental reactions, whether at local levels or maybe on levels that are more spread out (higher level governments and/or coordinations between nations). Governmental involvement in bitcoin tends to be an ongoing phenomena, and even one right now that is not necessarily agreed upon regarding how to frame what the various governmental entities are doing and why they are doing some of the things that they are doing - so if maybe upon the election of Trump in November 2024, he and his administration was making all kinds of positive statements, and even seeming to affect the policies and practices of other governments, yet at the same time, his actions have not proven to be as friendly to bitcoin as some folks had been interpreting them to be... so in some sense, the lack of permission in regards to peer to peer transactions, privacy and/or self-sovereignty attacks likely contributes to an undermining of quite a few bitcoin use cases, , yet it does not negate it's investment thesis and perhaps the various kinds of actions and/or interactions that tend to vary in different jurisdictions...so perhaps there can still be a lot of value with bitcoin, especially in war torn areas to move capital and/or value - even when there are interferences with real world transportation issues, such as difficulties to move oil or gold or goods.
If the guy is like you and he had started investing in late 2022, then maybe he might be starting to feel that he had enough bitcoin when the price had gotten up to $126k, but then when price went down, he was ambivalent in terms of the extent to which he should continue to buy regularly and persistently.. I am not sure if he had been saved by his having had started out investing relatively whimpily, so he may or may not realize that he is being presented with an opportunity to continue to buy during this current dipping period.
Surely it could be possible that a guy who had started accumulating fairly aggressively in 2018 or 2019 might feel more ambivalent about continuing to accumulate when the BTC price was going above $110k, yet now that the BTC price had corrected below $100k and even below $90k, he might be inspired to continue to buy. It is difficult to imagine all of the various scenarios, since the extent to which someone might end up graduating out of ongoingly DCA might relate to both how many BTC he had already accumulated and how aggressive he had been in his earlier bitcoin accumulation periods.
One thing I would like to add is that if a person passes through a cycle where he see price going up to 126,000$ and then dropping to 68,000$ within a short duration then if that happens second time then the guy will be in better position to tackle that situation. If you are new and the scenario happens to you for the first time then there is possibility that a person might get nervous on how to handle that situation. The guy who is in crypto since 2018 will fully understand on how to take advantage of current dip.
There are differences if the 2018/2019 guy built up a good bitcoin position early in the process and perhaps kept investing in bitcoin ever since then in a fairly aggressive way, versus if the guy had been ongoingly delaying in his investment in bitcoin, so then by the time he really seriously started buying bitcoin, maybe his first few years involved in bitcoin did not really count because he was failing/refusing to act upon his knowledge about bitcoin and to buy it.
So, it could be that the confidence in bitcoin results, in part, by having had built up a bit of a profits cushion, so even if the bitcoin price corrects back down, there is a certain level of confidence that it is ONLY going to correct so much to the downside, and of course, there are still no guarantees the guy might be continuing to buy bitcoin.
Of course, we also have guys who might frame what they are doing as investing, but they are really trying to catch various BTC price waves, so their own behaviors and perspectives in regards to how to treat their bitcoin accumulation and/or bitcoin stash management also affects their behavior and their willingness to continue to buy bitcoin or maybe to stop buying during periods in which he runs out of money, yet he may well may not resort to selling any bitcoin, since he continues to consider himself to be in his accumulation phase of his bitcoin investment journey.
There can be changes in conviction, and it is not even automatic that everyone gets smarter in how to manage their bitcoin if they might have had been making errors in their bitcoin history, and never ended up hunkering down and really building a bitcoin stash in the earlier years of their involvement in bitcoin.
We have a lot of dumb fucks in bitcoin, which I partly blame on either their trading or their getting involved in shitcoins, so over the years they never really developed their bitcoin conviction, and we cannot necessarily assume that everyone develops a bitcoin conviction merely due to their being involved in it for a couple of cycles, especially if they did not develop good habits.
I personally consider that even if guys had not developed good habits in the beginning, they can still recover by starting too employ good habits, yet there are still guys who cannot snap into good habits, even if they have already been involved in bitcoin for a cycle or two.
I frequently suggest that the DCA is likely to be ongoing and persistent in the earliest years of accumulating bitcoin, perhaps the first 4-6 years that a guy is accumulating bitcoin, unless a guy had been able to front load his bitcoin investment at various points in the progress that might allow him to transition into a less regular DCA and perhaps then maybe placing more emphasis on buying during dips.
For that you just need to have an understanding that how important it is to remain consistent in early years of your Bitcoin investment. The early you understand this better it is for you.
That seems to be true, but people have to come to their own conclusions, and I am not going to presume that everyone grows at the same rate and/or figures out the right lessons in regards to how to treat an asset like bitcoin. There are still plenty of folks on the sidelines waiting for further bitcoin dip before they get in.. (or get back in) and sure there is nothing wrong with holding some money for the buying of dips that might or might not end up happening, even though frequently it has been found to be good idea to be ongoingly buying too, especially for guys who might still consider themselves to be pretty llow on the bitcoin stash size count.
Still pretty new to crypto, so trying to keep it simple. DCA looks like the easiest way. Just buy a small amount from time to time and not stress about catching the perfect price. Way less pressure that way. If BTC keeps going up over the years, those small buys might turn into something decent. Feels like a good starting point for a beginner.
Surely. The DCA strategy for Bitcoin accumulation is much better and easier than any other investment strategy. For example you may be a newbie in investing and you still have a lot to learn about Bitcoin. You will need time to learn about Bitcoin in detail. It would be better to start accumulation Bitcoin using the DCA method after gaining basic knowledge about Bitcoin.
In the context that you are still new to the crypto space when investing in Bitcoin you should call this asset Bitcoin. Crypto refers to all the digital coins around you. Just as it would not be appropriate to compare Bitcoin with other coins it would be wise to organize all cryptos in a separate position and organize the store of value or asset called Bitcoin in a separate adjective.
Crypto refers to shitcoins.. Don't be fucking around with shitcoins or confusing matters by referring to bitcoin with such an ambiguous, vague and misleading term. Learn and invest into bitcoin first, shitcoins are not investments.. yet if you cannot resist investing (or trading) with shitcoins, limit such exposure to no more than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment.
