Re: The BTC to $1M thread (12% reached)

[Free Market Capitalist]

I've been thinking about opening this thread for a while now and I finally decided because I think it is now abundantly clear that this is not a question of whether the price will reach $1M, but when it will.

The first one that I can remember who said it with public resonance was the one who said that if the price didn't reach $1M by the end of 2020 he would eat his dick on national TV. Then we know how it turned out. I don't know if those of you who have been on the forum and in the bitcoin world longer remember any public figure or anyone on the forum talking about that possibility before McAfee. If so, say so and I'll post it in the OP.

Although it came later than McAfee's (rest in peace) crazy prediction, I think PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model was one of the first I remember seeing to hint at a potential $1 million Bitcoin. While I don't think he specifically mentioned a $1 million price target, his model definitely suggested that Bitcoin could reach that kind of crazy number during this bull cycle, before the next halving. It was pretty exciting to see the potential!

I just found another one, who may have been the first to predict that bitcoin would reach $1M, our beloved Hal Finney.

Nearly two years ago, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest famously predicted that Bitcoin (BTC -4.53%) would reach a price of $1 million by 2030. That was well before Bitcoin ever broke through the $100,000 price level, and well before the launch of the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024. The prediction came when Bitcoin was emerging from the crypto winter of 2022, and its prospects looked uncertain at best.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Wood reiterated that Bitcoin is headed to $1 million by 2030. In fact, if everything goes according to plan, she says, it might even reach $1.5 million.

In any case, after a disappointing 2020-24 cycle in terms of returns, where we started to talk about institutional adoption but it was much lower than expected, now it seems that institutional adoption is really starting. Michael Saylor is buying bitcoins for MSTR as if there is no tomorrow, the US president-elect promised to create a bitcoin reserve with the ones they already had but the Cynthia Lummis proposal to build up the reserve by buying bitcoin, up to 1 million in 5 years, has quite a few signs of becoming a reality, as there are 269 congressmen and senators in the US who are pro-crypto. Not only that, the US president-elect's appointments so far to his cabinet are mostly pro-bitcoin, people who have publicly stated that they have bitcoin holdings.

All of this we already know can unleash, and is already unleashing, institutional FOMO, leading to supply shock. This has led prominent figures such as Adam Back, creator of Hashcash and quoted in the White Paper, to say that if the strategic reserve goes ahead we should prepare for a 7 figure bitcoin this cycle. There are other characters, perhaps not as relevant but with public influence, who are in the same line, such as Samson Mow.

In any case as of today $1M per bitcoin no longer seems crazy, it no longer seems so far away, and I am creating this thread for us bitcointalkers to share experiences along the way.

[Ultegra134]

Is it unlikely? Yes, impossible? No. This is one of my posts a few weeks ago, in a speculation topic regarding whether the price is going to hit $100,000 within 2024.

I agree. Moreover, I believe that we do not have enough statistical data to accurately claim that history repeats itself, a few cycles do not necessarily prove that it's a pattern that will always repeat itself. From how I see things, Bitcoin certainly won't surpass $100,000 nor achieve a new ATH in 2024, perhaps it'll happen sometime in the first half of 2025 (the new ATH)  but I can't be certain judging by the current economical situation and the war in the Middle East. If things go south, and they're heading that way, it's difficult for any kind of investment to thrive.

As you can see, I was quite confident believing that it's unlikely to surpass $100,000, but I was proven wrong, it hasn't surpassed it yet, but it doesn't really matter at this point, it reached $99,600, which is basically the same. With that being said, we shouldn't rule out any possibility, although $1 million seems extravagant, it might be possible in the distant future.

[serjent05]

In any case as of today $1M per bitcoin no longer seems crazy, it no longer seems so far away, and I am creating this thread for us bitcointalkers to share experiences along the way.

Bitcoin price today is only at 9.7% of the stated target price.  I wonder how many 4-year cycles is needed for BTC to hit $1m a piece.  It may take more than a decade if we assume that the price growth of Bitcoin's ATH every cycle will be followed.

Is it unlikely? Yes, impossible? No. This is one of my posts a few weeks ago, in a speculation topic regarding whether the price is going to hit $100,000 within 2024.

I agree. Moreover, I believe that we do not have enough statistical data to accurately claim that history repeats itself, a few cycles do not necessarily prove that it's a pattern that will always repeat itself. From how I see things, Bitcoin certainly won't surpass $100,000 nor achieve a new ATH in 2024, perhaps it'll happen sometime in the first half of 2025 (the new ATH)  but I can't be certain judging by the current economical situation and the war in the Middle East. If things go south, and they're heading that way, it's difficult for any kind of investment to thrive.

As you can see, I was quite confident believing that it's unlikely to surpass $100,000, but I was proven wrong, it hasn't surpassed it yet, but it doesn't really matter at this point, it reached $99,600, which is basically the same. With that being said, we shouldn't rule out any possibility, although $1 million seems extravagant, it might be possible in the distant future.

Well there is nothing set in stone for Bitcoin price, and we also know that Bitcoin market often put analyst into shame...  so it is normal for people like us to get it wrong.  Besides October is often an uptrend for Bitcoin market, plus the hype of Trump's support for Bitcoin, so it is not surprising to see Bitcoin price surge.  If the hype from Trump's action is removed from the equation it would probably be a different story.

[terrific]

In any case as of today $1M per bitcoin no longer seems crazy, it no longer seems so far away, and I am creating this thread for us bitcointalkers to share experiences along the way.

No coiners mocked Bitcoin could reach $1k on the early days and then laughed about $100k but they cannot deny it anymore that we're going there soon.
They mocked, laughed and now wanna have it but when they do it's likely that they won't have it because their thoughts will fight about it telling that it's already expensive for them to have it.
I'd be happy to be part of this historical thread soon, hello people of the future!

[FatFork]

Although it came later than McAfee's (rest in peace) crazy prediction, I think PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model was one of the first I remember seeing to hint at a potential $1 million Bitcoin. While I don't think he specifically mentioned a $1 million price target, his model definitely suggested that Bitcoin could reach that kind of crazy number during this bull cycle, before the next halving. It was pretty exciting to see the potential!

[Jating]

Although it came later than McAfee's (rest in peace) crazy prediction, I think PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model was one of the first I remember seeing to hint at a potential $1 million Bitcoin. While I don't think he specifically mentioned a $1 million price target, his model definitely suggested that Bitcoin could reach that kind of crazy number during this bull cycle, before the next halving. It was pretty exciting to see the potential!

It's $100k first for Plan B in 2021, but it didn't happened that's why he has been trolled and exposed how flaw his modeling that time. And it's true, we didn't get into that 6 digits in November 2021, when everyone is waiting for that price to be breach.

But still you can't deny it today and if it predicted $1 million, then it's just a matter of time before we will see that price.

It could take several halving though and making Bitcoin one of the most scarce assets or commodities known to man to push the price to $1 million a pop.

[BitcoinBarrel]

$1 Million dollars will be a real possibility, perhaps not in this cycle, but indeed in the next 10 years.

[Ararbermas]

$1 Million dollars will be a real possibility, perhaps not in this cycle, but indeed in the next 10 years.

i believe also even though it still too far but for sure time will come to hit that $1m.  See where Bitcoin  now after all the correction and bad news since from the start . It didn't fail to achieve our expectations and prediction right? So no more doubts that bitcoin is the king after all the achievements and let's expect soon that we will see more ATH, and probably even that $1m is not enough for Bitcoin when every year it goes to the moon!.

[Not in Town]

I believe by the end of 2033 Bitcoin will have surpassed $1M. In fact I'll even take bets from people that disagree. But only up to 0.001 since it's such a long term contract and it will be a lot of money in 2033 dollars  .

[JeffBrad12]

It's very likely that BTC will reach $1M with its deflationary nature and capped total supply, big adoption is what it needs to get it there.

to be honest, I think bitcoin gonna start taking off where most of BTC are going to the wallet of the big buyer and becomes dormant leaving very few supply on the market available and at that time the price of BTC gonna shoot up so high because scarcity. if bitcoin strategic reserve is really happening I can see such thing to also happen.

[fuguebtc]

Although it came later than McAfee's (rest in peace) crazy prediction, I think PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model was one of the first I remember seeing to hint at a potential $1 million Bitcoin. While I don't think he specifically mentioned a $1 million price target, his model definitely suggested that Bitcoin could reach that kind of crazy number during this bull cycle, before the next halving. It was pretty exciting to see the potential!

Bitcoin has the potential to reach $1 million but I doubt that will happen in this cycle, even if something makes it more attractive and even governments start investing in it. Bitcoin's 10x price increase seems simple if we look at its history but we should also consider its market capitalization. That means we need trillions and specifically $19 trillion to help bitcoin reach $1 million, not just 10 billion or 100 billion like before to help bitcoin increase by thousands of percent. That is also why we can easily see that bitcoin is becoming less volatile and no longer brings as big profits as before. I think it will take at least a few more bull cycles for Bitcoin to hit 1 million, IMO.

[tabas]

$1 Million dollars will be a real possibility, perhaps not in this cycle, but indeed in the next 10 years.

More likely in 2 more cycles so around 8 years more but that would be a safe assumption if it will be in 10 years. Having even 1 BTC in accumulation for that long will be good enough for retirement but I wonder how much inflation would that be at that time. But still, the expected price selling point is going to be greater as the year passes by for most of the holders especially those that have been holding for many years.

to be honest, I think bitcoin gonna start taking off where most of BTC are going to the wallet of the big buyer and becomes dormant leaving very few supply on the market available and at that time the price of BTC gonna shoot up so high because scarcity. if bitcoin strategic reserve is really happening I can see such thing to also happen.

It's likely that will be the scenario. Companies and institutions like MicroStrategy are the ones that will own most of the BTCs that will be sold by many hodlers by that time. While them, they're going to be the giant and oligarchs by that time having some impact with the lesser supply in the economy.

[FatFork]

Although it came later than McAfee's (rest in peace) crazy prediction, I think PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model was one of the first I remember seeing to hint at a potential $1 million Bitcoin. While I don't think he specifically mentioned a $1 million price target, his model definitely suggested that Bitcoin could reach that kind of crazy number during this bull cycle, before the next halving. It was pretty exciting to see the potential!

Bitcoin has the potential to reach $1 million but I doubt that will happen in this cycle, even if something makes it more attractive and even governments start investing in it. Bitcoin's 10x price increase seems simple if we look at its history but we should also consider its market capitalization. That means we need trillions and specifically $19 trillion to help bitcoin reach $1 million, not just 10 billion or 100 billion like before to help bitcoin increase by thousands of percent. That is also why we can easily see that bitcoin is becoming less volatile and no longer brings as big profits as before. I think it will take at least a few more bull cycles for Bitcoin to hit 1 million, IMO.

Yes. I doubt it too, but it's worth saying that people often underestimate Bitcoin's growth potential. Just a few months ago, many people doubted that BTC could double in price and reach 100k by the end of the year. And yet, here we are.

Also, I don't think your numbers check out.  You're going by Bitcoin's total possible supply, but that dosn't work because not all coins are really out there on the market.  Total market cap doesn't take into account the real market supply, which is actually much lower.

[m2017]

I've been thinking about opening this thread for a while now and I finally decided because I think it is now abundantly clear that this is not a question of whether the price will reach $1M, but when it will.

The first one that I can remember who said it with public resonance was the one who said that if the price didn't reach $1M by the end of 2020 he would eat his dick on national TV. Then we know how it turned out. I don't know if those of you who have been on the forum and in the bitcoin world longer remember any public figure or anyone on the forum talking about that possibility before McAfee. If so, say so and I'll post it in the OP.

Although it came later than McAfee's (rest in peace) crazy prediction, I think PlanB's Stock-to-Flow model was one of the first I remember seeing to hint at a potential $1 million Bitcoin. While I don't think he specifically mentioned a $1 million price target, his model definitely suggested that Bitcoin could reach that kind of crazy number during this bull cycle, before the next halving. It was pretty exciting to see the potential!

Although McAfee's statements were quite loud and unrealistic at that time, he still inspired the community to believe in the bright price future of bitcoin. It's a pity that he couldn't catch our time when bitcoin reached the $100k. mark. Not to mention $100M.

All of this we already know can unleash, and is already unleashing, institutional FOMO, leading to supply shock. This has led prominent figures such as Adam Back, creator of Hashcash and quoted in the White Paper, to say that if the strategic reserve goes ahead we should prepare for a 7 figure bitcoin this cycle. There are other characters, perhaps not as relevant but with public influence, who are in the same line, such as Samson Mow.

$1M. for 1 BTC is inevitable, but unlikely during this cycle. After all, it will take some time for the world to accept (and invest in) it. We should not forget about the problems in the global economy, in other words, the world needs extra money to push the price of bitcoin to a 7-digit figure. I hope that the economic crisis (which has not yet been "canceled") doesn't push back the date of reaching $10M. for bitcoin.

I know that one day the world will see 1 BTC=$ 1M., but when exactly doesn't matter to me. We still can't influence the course of these events in any way. It will happen when it happens.

[Zaguru12]

$1 Million dollars will be a real possibility, perhaps not in this cycle, but indeed in the next 10 years.

Looking at the possibility of this happening in 10 years, yes there is definitely all possibility of it happening, bitcoin achieved its first $1k price after the 2012 bull run and then had a pump of 10x to $10k in the next bull run which is after the 2016 halving and then the next 10x from there took an extra two more halving (2020 and 2024), which means the volatility has been reduce needing at least 10 more years to get a 10x which is the current $100k we are touching soon. So going with this same trend then i will safely say we might need like three more halvings to get another 10x and that will be like in 12 years, precisely around 2036 halving. That will be like 2x the ATH after each halving period. This can be be achieved even before then but it is more realistic like this due to the decrease in its volatility

[l99l]

Considering the growth after each halving cycle, I can say that I am optimistic about the price of Bitcoin at $1 million.
Many Bitcoin maximalists say this. I guess McAfee's prediction was not even realistic at that time, now they are talking about when it will happen.
I'm glad to be on this forum and that bitcoin is so inclusive.
I will remember this thread when Bitcoin reach 7 figures.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Did anyone freak out yesterday or get sad about the price drop? We have to be aware of the price levels we are at. When bitcoin was worth $990 it going down to $958 did not have the same effect on people's minds as when it has dropped from almost $100K to $95.9K. We have to get used to these price swings on the way to a million. In the not too distant future price increases or decreases of tens of thousands of dollars in a single day will be normal.

[Iranus]

$1 Million dollars will be a real possibility, perhaps not in this cycle, but indeed in the next 10 years.

Looking at the possibility of this happening in 10 years, yes there is definitely all possibility of it happening, bitcoin achieved its first $1k price after the 2012 bull run and then had a pump of 10x to $10k in the next bull run which is after the 2016 halving and then the next 10x from there took an extra two more halving (2020 and 2024), which means the volatility has been reduce needing at least 10 more years to get a 10x which is the current $100k we are touching soon. So going with this same trend then i will safely say we might need like three more halvings to get another 10x and that will be like in 12 years, precisely around 2036 halving. That will be like 2x the ATH after each halving period. This can be be achieved even before then but it is more realistic like this due to the decrease in its volatility

As far as I know, we have just over 1.3 million bitcoins left to mine and the mining of these bitcoins will last until 2140. Meanwhile, in just 8 months since the ETF was approved, they have purchased over 1 million bitcoins, which makes me question whether the halving is still the main catalyst for bitcoin price increases. In my opinion, we should monitor and evaluate the demand for bitcoin in the coming time to predict when bitcoin will reach $1 million instead of continuing to depend on halving.

If the demand for bitcoin continues to be maintained or tends to increase more strongly when Trump declares his support for bitcoin. Bitcoin hitting 1 million could happen faster than you think.

People are still clinging to the halving and thinking that is the biggest catalyst but in my opinion things have changed.

[MainIbem]

Is it unlikely? Yes, impossible? No. This is one of my posts a few weeks ago, in a speculation topic regarding whether the price is going to hit $100,000 within 2024.

I agree. Moreover, I believe that we do not have enough statistical data to accurately claim that history repeats itself, a few cycles do not necessarily prove that it's a pattern that will always repeat itself. From how I see things, Bitcoin certainly won't surpass $100,000 nor achieve a new ATH in 2024, perhaps it'll happen sometime in the first half of 2025 (the new ATH)  but I can't be certain judging by the current economical situation and the war in the Middle East. If things go south, and they're heading that way, it's difficult for any kind of investment to thrive.

As you can see, I was quite confident believing that it's unlikely to surpass $100,000, but I was proven wrong, it hasn't surpassed it yet, but it doesn't really matter at this point, it reached $99,600, which is basically the same. With that being said, we shouldn't rule out any possibility, although $1 million seems extravagant, it might be possible in the distant future.

I think the OP is fast tracking to the future, not even the near future cause that figure isn't realistic in this bull run, it could be possible in the next two circles but not now, Bitcoin is almost 100k and yet to break into the six figures and someone is already thinking about seven figures. Well, it's not bad to think deep and wish your thoughts could be fast tracked into a reality, I'm not saying it's never possible, of course it is, we've all seen the potential and how far it could go, we've seen that more people are embracing it but then heading to the seven figures in this circle or even the next is not realistic, it would definitely get to that point sometime in the future and hopefully we'll witness it get there. I've stopped bothering myself about what the price of Bitcoin would be in future or how high it can go cause I've come to so much believe in the potential of it and all I care about right now is accumulating more of the coins for the future, which I consider very important.

[Popkon6]

Did anyone freak out yesterday or get sad about the price drop? We have to be aware of the price levels we are at. When bitcoin was worth $990 it going down to $958 did not have the same effect on people's minds as when it has dropped from almost $100K to $95.9K. We have to get used to these price swings on the way to a million. In the not too distant future price increases or decreases of tens of thousands of dollars in a single day will be normal.

I never worry about the price of Bitcoin falling, I worry about the future. Because from the past to today, the price of Bitcoin has only gone up and sometimes it has gone down, this is a good opportunity for investors to invest in Bitcoin. Because when the price of Bitcoin reaches 100,000 dollars, it will move towards 200k dollars, in this way, step by step, I think it will not take much time for the price of Bitcoin to reach 1 million dollars.
Maybe we will have to wait for another bull market to start to reach 1 million dollars, when the price of Bitcoin touched 95k dollars and I bought Bitcoin for 96 thousand dollars. I bought deep with the funds I had accumulated by following the DCA method.