[POLYMARKET] Post election Trump, prediction bets, USA-IRAN permanent peace deal

[bbc.reporter]

This is a good article on an official under the Donald's administration who is fighting for prediction markets. Who has shared very words on why prediction markets will be helpful on bringing honesty and the truth in our world where there is much fake news and mainstream media manipulation on information.

I very much wish much of you in this forum will understand what are the functions and benefits of prediction markets in showing the chances for truth on an occurrence or an opinion. There are people in this forum who certainly do not understand and argue against the consideration on prediction markets as informative on showing the chances for an occurrence to be true or not hehehe.



Michael Selig oversees a federal agency created to regulate soybean futures. Now he’s helping Americans around the country bet on everything from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions to who will win the latest season of the reality TV show “Survivor.”

Less than two months into the job, the 36-year-old lawyer has come out swinging in favor of prediction markets such as those facilitated by the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. The chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sees their platforms as a way for society to channel the wisdom of crowds for useful information, offering a check on news media and other gatekeepers.

“We’ve seen the eerie world of ‘1984’ where everything’s two plus two equals five,” Selig told The Wall Street Journal, referencing George Orwell’s dystopian novel. “These markets make sure that we get it right—and I think it’s very important to protect that here in the United States with the right guardrails.”

Read in full https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/meet-the-trump-official-fighting-for-prediction-markets

[criptoevangelista]

Quick question: I rarely see anyone talking about Polymarket here, especially in the Gambling section, which I’d expect to cover all types of betting. Is there some sort of resistance to mentioning Polymarket here on BitcoinTalk? Or is it just that people here aren't in the habit of using that platform?

[KTChampions]

Quick question: I rarely see anyone talking about Polymarket here, especially in the Gambling section, which I’d expect to cover all types of betting. Is there some sort of resistance to mentioning Polymarket here on BitcoinTalk? Or is it just that people here aren't in the habit of using that platform?

Prediction markets have had their niche for a long time, long before the polymarket, but historically, people are more inclined to discuss bookmakers and their odds. This probably makes sense, as bookmakers provide liquidity across all markets, while on prediction platforms, you can't bet on a narrow market with a single odds because this is literally a market and there may not be liquidity at the odds you need.
Plus, bookmakers offer a much wider range of events - you can bet on corners, yellow cards, substitutions, etc., while many of these markets are simply non existing on the polymarket.

[bbc.reporter]

Quick question: I rarely see anyone talking about Polymarket here, especially in the Gambling section, which I’d expect to cover all types of betting. Is there some sort of resistance to mentioning Polymarket here on BitcoinTalk? Or is it just that people here aren't in the habit of using that platform?

I reckon that much of the people in the forum are sportsbettors. Polymarket has sports, however, this is a better platform for betting on the elections, the box office on different movies and other different world news and occurrences.

Similar to the news that China has begun their development of new nuclear weapons. They are speculated to do their tests on these new nuclear weapons. You can bet if there will be a nuclear weapons detonated on Polymarket heheeheh. If China detonates a nuclear weapon to test this, you will win the bet.



https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by-562

[KTChampions]

I reckon that much of the people in the forum are sportsbettors. Polymarket has sports, however, this is a better platform for betting on the elections, the box office on different movies and other different world news and occurrences.

Similar to the news that China has begun their development of new nuclear weapons. They are speculated to do their tests on these new nuclear weapons. You can bet if there will be a nuclear weapons detonated on Polymarket heheeheh. If China detonates a nuclear weapon to test this, you will win the bet.



https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by-562

I checked the rules (the most important thing on Polymarket is to understand what the dispute is about) and they seem quite clear (not like the "will the US attack Venezuela" case):

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between December 17, 2025 ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.

A 3.5% return over a month and a week of waiting seems like easy money. There are no signs yet that any country is preparing to conduct actual nuclear tests. I don't really understand why big players don't execute this bet. In our case (small players), 3.5% isn't interesting - we need faster markets with higher profits.

[Sithara007]

A 3.5% return over a month and a week of waiting seems like easy money. There are no signs yet that any country is preparing to conduct actual nuclear tests. I don't really understand why big players don't execute this bet. In our case (small players), 3.5% isn't interesting - we need faster markets with higher profits.

There is nothing like easy money. In order to get a 3.5% return (which will be lower after taxes anyway), you are risking 33x of that amount. Smaller players don't really understand the supplementary risks. They only focus on the main risk. Suppose someone is placing a bet from USA and after two weeks the governments bans Polymarket from operating in the country, then how the user will get his money back? Here he will lose 33x of his potential win. Also, what if an accidental detonation occurs at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant? The chances are very low, but definitely not zero.

[KTChampions]

A 3.5% return over a month and a week of waiting seems like easy money. There are no signs yet that any country is preparing to conduct actual nuclear tests. I don't really understand why big players don't execute this bet. In our case (small players), 3.5% isn't interesting - we need faster markets with higher profits.

There is nothing like easy money. In order to get a 3.5% return (which will be lower after taxes anyway), you are risking 33x of that amount. Smaller players don't really understand the supplementary risks. They only focus on the main risk. Suppose someone is placing a bet from USA and after two weeks the governments bans Polymarket from operating in the country, then how the user will get his money back? Here he will lose 33x of his potential win. Also, what if an accidental detonation occurs at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant? The chances are very low, but definitely not zero.

What taxes, friend? Is Polymarket a tax agent? I haven't heard of that. If the responsibility for paying taxes lies with you, then you simply don't have to  As far as I know, even a KYC is rarely required at the Polymarket, email registration is usually sufficient. If your VPN doesn't show a restricted country (like the US), you can trade without any problems. As for risk, it's obvious that it exists everywhere. But if you want, you can make the opposite bet, it's all up to you.

[bitgolden]

While this is "understandable" that people want to bet on things that are not games, that is something that is "new" and "fresh" so people like to do that for now.

I understand why it was created, to build something that would basically be p2p betting and interestingly there were places like this before polymarket and it is not the first one. I have wagered in places like this before, I do not remember the name but it was in crypto world, it just didn't get this much marketing and attention.

[Sithara007]

What taxes, friend? Is Polymarket a tax agent? I haven't heard of that. If the responsibility for paying taxes lies with you, then you simply don't have to  As far as I know, even a KYC is rarely required at the Polymarket, email registration is usually sufficient. If your VPN doesn't show a restricted country (like the US), you can trade without any problems. As for risk, it's obvious that it exists everywhere. But if you want, you can make the opposite bet, it's all up to you.

Tax is one of the lower priorities. I agree that a VPN should keep you safe, as long as you deal in moderate amounts. The IRS can track the uers still, but they will not bother if the traded amount is not in millions. But the biggest factor in play here is that you will be risking 33x of your potential winning on an online platform, which is not insured. I would say that the risk is similar to what users take when they keep their coins in exchange wallet. Now I am someone who has lost plenty of coins in exchanges such as BTC-e, Instawallet (back in 2014) and Mt Gox. There is a real risk of this website being taken down, albeit very low.

[bbc.reporter]

I reckon that much of the people in the forum are sportsbettors. Polymarket has sports, however, this is a better platform for betting on the elections, the box office on different movies and other different world news and occurrences.

Similar to the news that China has begun their development of new nuclear weapons. They are speculated to do their tests on these new nuclear weapons. You can bet if there will be a nuclear weapons detonated on Polymarket heheeheh. If China detonates a nuclear weapon to test this, you will win the bet.



https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by-562

I checked the rules (the most important thing on Polymarket is to understand what the dispute is about) and they seem quite clear (not like the "will the US attack Venezuela" case):

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between December 17, 2025 ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.

A 3.5% return over a month and a week of waiting seems like easy money. There are no signs yet that any country is preparing to conduct actual nuclear tests. I don't really understand why big players don't execute this bet. In our case (small players), 3.5% isn't interesting - we need faster markets with higher profits.

It appears that Polymarket has removed this nuclear detonation market because it has become a very dangerous storyline after information is being shared that Russia might begin using their supersonic missiles and hypersonic missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

This is becoming a very much headshaking occurrence.

[KTChampions]

A 3.5% return over a month and a week of waiting seems like easy money. There are no signs yet that any country is preparing to conduct actual nuclear tests. I don't really understand why big players don't execute this bet. In our case (small players), 3.5% isn't interesting - we need faster markets with higher profits.

It appears that Polymarket has removed this nuclear detonation market because it has become a very dangerous storyline after information is being shared that Russia might begin using their supersonic missiles and hypersonic missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

This is becoming a very much headshaking occurrence.

No, as I understand it, the market was removed because this topic attracted attention on Twitter and many people started whining about the unethical nature of such bets.
The bastards with 30 IQ points couldn't even read the market description, it wasn't about nuclear war, but rather about "incidents," which includes, for example, nuclear tests. It's sad that the platform has given in to degenerates. This is the problem with centralized platforms - they can be regulated completely illogically, simply because of the emotions of people who have nothing to do with them.

[bbc.reporter]

@KTChampions. I reckon that the platform was becoming afraid of the attention because this might cause problems not only against the regulators and these legal departments, but also problems with office of the Donald.

In any case, I agree on the argument that the nuclear detonation market should not be removed. This is an important source of information for everyone to follow.

[KTChampions]

@KTChampions. I reckon that the platform was becoming afraid of the attention because this might cause problems not only against the regulators and these legal departments, but also problems with office of the Donald.

In any case, I agree on the argument that the nuclear detonation market should not be removed. This is an important source of information for everyone to follow.

Unfortunately, it appears the pressure on forecasting platforms will only increase:

Senate Democrats push prediction market limits, including banning bets on war, death
One Senate Democrat's bill would write the prohibition into federal law even as the CFTC shifts toward a more permissive stance on event contracts.
Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would explicitly ban prediction market contracts tied to terrorism, war, assassination and individual deaths.
Schiff's bill would remove the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's discretion over such contracts by prohibiting any CFTC-registered exchange from listing them, including those closely correlated with a person's death.
Meanwhile, Senator Richard Blumenthal also introduced a bill targeting fraud and insider trading in the prediction markets.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/11/schiff-pushes-ban-on-prediction-market-bets-tied-to-war-and-death

I hope Polymarket continues to stay away from the US. I don't need these degenerates who will decide which markets to trade in and which ones are prohibited. One can only hope that the platforms understand what users want (trading volume in such markets is very high) and won't harm themselves by succumbing to pressure.
In general, I don't see any problems with war betting or death betting. Why don't those actually doing this feel any guilt, while those who merely analyze reality should be restricted? This is nonsense.

[bbc.reporter]

@KTChampions. This will not be good unless Polymarket begins to create it something similar to Tornado Cash where if the regulators ban the frontend of the underlying protocol of smart contracts, it cannot stop the protocol from continuing to operate.

If the government can takedown their prediction markets, this is not decentralized. This will not be a very good occurrence in the cryptospace.

[bbc.reporter]

This is certainly good news for Polymarket bettors heheheh. However, will this be bad news for sportsbooks? Will there be an occurrence where the bettors in sportsbooks will begin betting on Polymarket?

This will certainly be very headshaking for our favorite sportsbooks.



NYSE owner doubles down on Polymarket with fresh $600 million investment

The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange is cementing its bet on the future of prediction markets, bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), said it added another $600 million to its investment in prediction market platform Polymarket, closing out a previously announced funding agreement between the two firms.

ICE’s investment signals that large, traditional market operators see potential in the sector. If prediction markets gain broader approval, they could sit alongside stocks and futures as another way for traders to express views on the forthcoming events.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/27/nyse-owner-doubles-down-on-polymarket-with-fresh-usd600-million-investment

[bbc.reporter]

These Democrats should also investigate on of their own leaders in their political party, Nancy Pelosi hehehe. She is very much know for being a stock market trader. She is speculated to be using insider information on her trades.

In any case, she can deny this, however, how can we be very certain that she is not using insider information?



Democrats urge warnings to federal officials against insider bets on prediction markets

More than 40 Democrats in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives sent a letter to a federal regulator and to ethics officials to ask them to warn government officials that insider trading in derivatives is illegal and that bets they make on prediction markets firms like Polymarket and Kalshi qualify under that category.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/03/30/democrats-urge-warnings-to-federal-officials-against-insider-bets-on-prediction-markets

[bbc.reporter]

It appears that the market on both traditional finance and the cryptospace will dump for this month. According to Polymarket, America will send their soldiers inside Iran. This will be very difficult and a long war because Iran is surrounded by mountains on the south and this will make it very difficult to enter for the America soldiers.

If America sends them with parachutes another difficulty is sending the supplies because of the mountains in the south.



Source https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by

[KTChampions]

It appears that the market on both traditional finance and the cryptospace will dump for this month. According to Polymarket, America will send their soldiers inside Iran. This will be very difficult and a long war because Iran is surrounded by mountains on the south and this will make it very difficult to enter for the America soldiers.

If America sends them with parachutes another difficulty is sending the supplies because of the mountains in the south.



Source https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by

This is an incorrect link, these are boots on the ground and it is already 100% since the forces that rescued the pilot were obviously in Iran and fighting there.
If you're specifically interested in a military invasion to control territory, then you should look at this market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 At the moment the probability is 57%. I'm thinking of betting No, even though it's a long-term bet.
The main trick of Polymarket is that you need to read the market conditions very carefully; many have lost money due to nuances 

[bbc.reporter]

Prediction markets similar to Polymarket can be a type of platform where the truth can be expressed by the participants. However, there are politicians who have begun to create proposals to stop this form of expression heheheh. This is another headshaking occurrence.



Prediction markets face rising regulatory pressure, with congressional Democrats proposing legislation to ban contracts tied to elections, war and government actions.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/05/polymarket-pulls-controversial-iran-rescue-markets-after-intense-backlash

[mindrust]

Prediction markets similar to Polymarket can be a type of platform where the truth can be expressed by the participants. However, there are politicians who have begun to create proposals to stop this form of expression heheheh. This is another headshaking occurrence.



Prediction markets face rising regulatory pressure, with congressional Democrats proposing legislation to ban contracts tied to elections, war and government actions.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/05/polymarket-pulls-controversial-iran-rescue-markets-after-intense-backlash

Following their logic, they should also ban the stock market as people who are long on oil and defense stocks are also long on war. People who are long on hotels, airlines and shit they are long on peace.

My point is stock market is also a prediction market which people make bets on future events, even elections.

Banning prediction markets alone doesn’t make any sense. It is a major step backwards.