VOLGASTALLION CONTESTS DISCUSSION THREAD

[Volgastallion]

We reach the 60 day line, thanksfully for a lot of people its not a line where i make a cut. So is only simbolic, but lets post the actual price of BTC right now just to have fun.

The BTC price is now 86.000 USD which is by a lot much more lower than most of us as expected, we are still in the line of much of the bearish predictions made in the contest and the ones who are still standing.

[fillippone]

It's incredible where we stand now.
BSR, Trump friendly administration, End of Chokepoint 2.0, Stablecoin bill coming.
I still can't figure out how many see Bitcoin dropping to 70k. It is complete nonsense to me.
But I am a very bad trader, apparently.

[NeuroticFish]

I still can't figure out how many see Bitcoin dropping to 70k. It is complete nonsense to me.
But I am a very bad trader, apparently.

I've seen some TA saying that 30% drop is normal and expected. And that was when the price was doing great and the good news were still coming. (I thought it's a mistake)

Since then we had the shitcoin reserve (somewhat cleared up), tariff war, an ugly display of incompetence on the "end of war in 24h" part, the hate against Elon/Tesla and then US losing some fat military contracts. Plus we're at the verge of Starlink lose the Ukraine contract and Eutelsat taking it.
Quite a number of hits for USA economy, plus the propaganda and show off for how good DOGE is doesn't cover for the sky high expenses that didn't actually decrease (or at least not meaningfully).
And there was the ByBit hack that made Kim a significant Bitcoin holder (and possibly speculator!).

The situation looks bad and this usually means investors go for something they can physically hold (yep, that's gold).
Interestingly quite some companies do acquire gold. The news on Bitcoin acquisitions keep coming, but the market still stays low.
Somehow the bad news keep having more effect than the good ones.

70k? I really hope that the worse has passed after 76k. But.. hmm.. who knows?

[Volgastallion]

It's incredible where we stand now.
BSR, Trump friendly administration, End of Chokepoint 2.0, Stablecoin bill coming.
I still can't figure out how many see Bitcoin dropping to 70k. It is complete nonsense to me.
But I am a very bad trader, apparently.

Im with you  .

Everytime i try to know what is gonna happen in the short run, i fail misserably.

We all know the super well know phrase " buy with the rumour sell with the news", but i feel like the sell with the news is being so long this time, plus we are still receiving a lot of HUGE rumours about the future, so i dont know why the price is still on this line below 100k.

I still can't figure out how many see Bitcoin dropping to 70k. It is complete nonsense to me.
But I am a very bad trader, apparently.

I've seen some TA saying that 30% drop is normal and expected. And that was when the price was doing great and the good news were still coming. (I thought it's a mistake)

Since then we had the shitcoin reserve (somewhat cleared up), tariff war, an ugly display of incompetence on the "end of war in 24h" part, the hate against Elon/Tesla and then US losing some fat military contracts. Plus we're at the verge of Starlink lose the Ukraine contract and Eutelsat taking it.
Quite a number of hits for USA economy, plus the propaganda and show off for how good DOGE is doesn't cover for the sky high expenses that didn't actually decrease (or at least not meaningfully).
And there was the ByBit hack that made Kim a significant Bitcoin holder (and possibly speculator!).

The situation looks bad and this usually means investors go for something they can physically hold (yep, that's gold).
Interestingly quite some companies do acquire gold. The news on Bitcoin acquisitions keep coming, but the market still stays low.
Somehow the bad news keep having more effect than the good ones.

70k? I really hope that the worse has passed after 76k. But.. hmm.. who knows?

I dont really know what to think, we have a very good run in the last months of 2024, and now after Trump asumption seems like the market is still waiting and rearranging from the shift on politics and waiting for more to come plus some things were not fullified like you said, peace in Ukrayne war and the BTC reserve not being what we all think is gonna be.

[GxSTxV]

Too bad I missed the contest but honestly, my predictions wouldve probably been way off anyway lol, I mean who could predict all these movements for the next two or three months . Bitcoin at 84k now feels like the market is moving more in response to the US and Trump than ever before.

With all the political shifts and uncertainty, it makes sense that things are shaky but I still think we are still in a strong position long term. Just wondering if we will keep hovering here or if this is another setup before breaking higher. I also feel like something is on the way and at any moment, it could change the game for us, hopefully with a bullish move to see the 100k around once again.

[JayJuanGee]

I still can't figure out how many see Bitcoin dropping to 70k. It is complete nonsense to me.
But I am a very bad trader, apparently.

I've seen some TA saying that 30% drop is normal and expected. And that was when the price was doing great and the good news were still coming. (I thought it's a mistake)

Since then we had the shitcoin reserve (somewhat cleared up), tariff war, an ugly display of incompetence on the "end of war in 24h" part, the hate against Elon/Tesla and then US losing some fat military contracts. Plus we're at the verge of Starlink lose the Ukraine contract and Eutelsat taking it.
Quite a number of hits for USA economy, plus the propaganda and show off for how good DOGE is doesn't cover for the sky high expenses that didn't actually decrease (or at least not meaningfully).
And there was the ByBit hack that made Kim a significant Bitcoin holder (and possibly speculator!).

The situation looks bad and this usually means investors go for something they can physically hold (yep, that's gold).
Interestingly quite some companies do acquire gold. The news on Bitcoin acquisitions keep coming, but the market still stays low.
Somehow the bad news keep having more effect than the good ones.

70k? I really hope that the worse has passed after 76k. But.. hmm.. who knows?

You make a lot of good points, yet your seemingly delusional point about gold kind of got me going (though I am not going to respond here since it seems to be off topic in regards to the contest), even though, sure gold (that shiny rock) is currently pumping.

[tread93]

I wish I had got my picks in! I suppose that I still could, it surely woudl be fun.

The deadline was 31 January and the prediction topic has been closed by the OP, so you can no longer take part. Even though you can't officially participate in this competition, no one can stop you from thinking and writing down the BTC value you believe will be recorded 90 and 180 days from the day Trump took office for your own reference and put your prediction skills to the test.

You make a good point! We are now just past the 3 month part, I wonder if anyone had correctly guessed the 84k? in another 90 days from now I will just say that BTC will be back up to the 100k mark ( I hope) I would even be happy to even see that. I would really like to see it hit a new ATH but I guess we will just wait and see. Just the other day Trump doubled down again saying he will make the US the bitcoin something or other and the crypto capital of the world again. Just wait until they make their first gigantic purchase and other countries follow suit!

[Pmalek]

The way things stand now, there will be maybe 4-5 participants that will reach the finals. Those are the ones whose predictions are below $100k.
I am not sure what news could trigger the next massive bitcoin surge. Perhaps if the US were to announce that they will purchase and add a massive amount of bitcoin to their strategic reserve soon or one of the US States establishes its own local strategic reserve, independent of the federal one. It's sad, but all eyes seem to be on Trump and the US. They are moving the price in both directions.   

[Volgastallion]

The way things stand now, there will be maybe 4-5 participants that will reach the finals. Those are the ones whose predictions are below $100k.
I am not sure what news could trigger the next massive bitcoin surge. Perhaps if the US were to announce that they will purchase and add a massive amount of bitcoin to their strategic reserve soon or one of the US States establishes its own local strategic reserve, independent of the federal one. It's sad, but all eyes seem to be on Trump and the US. They are moving the price in both directions.   

Yes, about the strategic reserve we need to wait for, like you said a Bitcoin reserve from another state, or a shift in politics and a change in the part of buy BTC for the U.S reserve.

About your last words, yes i feel like we are like in the era when Elon Musk starts to tweet about crypto in general and everybody eyes were over there, so we need to wait until the people start to look into more relevant things. And start to look out of the U.S and Trump, easy to say, hard to do.

[AVE5]

can we enter negative numbers?

I hope so because as for me, I play a lot with the fact Op said we can make jokes out.
But as a jokey or precisely predictions of bitcoin price, does the discussion for in here in the gambling and discussion board?
All need be cleared participants call all jump up with the vibe. Lol

[NeuroticFish]

(that shiny rock) is currently pumping.

That's the sole reason why I think that the old fashioned ones are buying it massively.
Of course, I can also be wrong, it happens.

[JayJuanGee]

(that shiny rock) is currently pumping.

That's the sole reason why I think that the old fashioned ones are buying it massively.
Of course, I can also be wrong, it happens.

One thing is attempting to describe what is currently happening, versus trying to predict what is going to happen... so yeah, we can see that the pump of gold may well contribute towards its own momentum to continue with its pumping.

I personally would suggest that bitcoin has something in the ballpark of 1,000x more value than gold in terms of its money attributes - even though surely it could take 50-200 years to work out those prices on the market, so in the short-term there are likely plenty of folks who have some confidence in gold as a hedge against various dollar/fiat-based system (and so in some sense, bitcoin and gold are serving similar hedging purposes.. and of course, since I consider bitcoin to be so much better than gold (including that bitcoin is currently ONLY about 1/10th gold's market cap), there should be no mystery in regards where I think that people should be holding their value..

Yet, I know that some folks get all excited about gold outperforming bitcoin this calendar year, which seems quite a bit short-sighted attempt to get excited since we can see that bitcoin has come along way relative to gold in the past 10 years, so it should not be difficult to see bitcoin in terms of likely greater value than gold even though gold has been doing o.k. in recent times.

I am thinking that bitcoin could reach gold parity this cycle, yet unless something goes wrong with bitcoin in the coming 4-6 years, it seems difficult to imagine situations in which bitcoin would not be able to reach gold parity by at least the next cycle.. .. so maybe we can say the timeline for bitcoin to reach gold parity could be in the ballpark of 1-6 years and those kinds of thoughts should not be considered unreasonable, even though surely bitcoin might not sustain gold parity after the first time touching upon it.

I am more comfortable trying to describe what is happening rather than what I think will happen, too.

[NeuroticFish]

Well said!
Whatever happens now with Bitcoin price is just another temporary setback. Not the first, most probably not the last.
(Overall, long term, Bitcoin is clearly the future, just far too many didn't understand that.)
The thing is... we are in the context of this contest and... yeah... this temporary setback knocked out most of us 
On the normal Bitcoin investing/lifetime "grand scheme of things" this doesn't matter much, since long term patience is the key.

[Volgastallion]

I always have a question about the gold price going up, it's just a correction from the price or is a real pumping?. I mean with all the inflation we have and all the cash in the martket can happen that is only going up to stay to the same level of other years and not a real one apreciation?

Sorry if i'm not being clear. My poor English kills me.

[JayJuanGee]

Well said!
Whatever happens now with Bitcoin price is just another temporary setback. Not the first, most probably not the last.
(Overall, long term, Bitcoin is clearly the future, just far too many didn't understand that.)
The thing is... we are in the context of this contest and... yeah... this temporary setback knocked out most of us  
On the normal Bitcoin investing/lifetime "grand scheme of things" this doesn't matter much, since long term patience is the key.

I am not even sure if set back is any kind of proper label, beyond proclaiming somewhat normal up and down moves.

Don't get me wrong, I was considering putting in my own predictions in the contest, and for sure I would have had been eliminated since I would have just continued to project up and to the right within expected ranges for each of the time frames (so then my middle number of the range would have had been my prediction for each of the timelines).

It is hard to know while we are in the middle of these "normal' moves, and we can come up with some explanations after the fact about what happened and why.  

I think that soon after the Trump election many of us were talking about a Trump pump that could go all the way until inauguration and then reverse from there (kind of buy the rumor sell the news kind of situation), but then even while it continues to pump into January, with a few short-term corrections, many of us might have had not felt very strong about the sub inauguration dump, and we start to consider that the pump could just keep going another 20% or more prior to dumping.. ..

Anyhow, even if so many of us (including myself) did or would have had gotten knocked out of a contest like this  when there were requirements to be either higher than the price on the date or within a range of the price on the date.  I am not very much a fan of such elimination, yet it is what it is in terms of the dynamics that are created from having requirements for the steps along the way rather than just getting the price on the final date correct.

Trump has a lot of outrageous actions around various aspects of trying to affect the economy and even engaging in attacks of various aspects of the government that seemed beyond attacking, so those behaviors have some potential ramifications in the creation of various uncertainties, yet at the same time, there had been quite a few surprising aspects of various bitcoin promises (even accounting for some of the various shitcoining noises) that Trump and friends are seeming to follow through as good as could be expected when it comes to bitcoin oriented attempts at policies that he might be able to carry out through the Executive branch or with some cross branch attempts at complimentary policies/legislation.

I always have a question about the gold price going up, it's just a correction from the price or is a real pumping?. I mean with all the inflation we have and all the cash in the martket can happen that is only going up to stay to the same level of other years and not a real one apreciation?

Sorry if i'm not being clear. My poor English kills me.

Of course, with any asset, whether gold or otherwise, there is a need to attempt to measure from the debasement of the dollar, so there are a lot of assets that are barely just keeping up with the debasement in the dollar, so in the end, they are not really appreciating, but instead offsetting the depreciation of the dollar so the purchasing power for those in assets is remaining somewhat constant, and the purchasing power of those staying in the dollar are going down at the rate of the debasement of the dollar. 

Many of us would argue that bitcoin is one of the only assets in which you can both appreciate in value and beat the debasement of the dollar, and sure, maybe we are cheating in bitcoin since bitcoin has the advantages of being in its earliest of adoption phases, so a lot of bitcoin's appreciation is also going to come from the mere fact that it is in its earliest stages of adoption.

On the short-term the price of gold and various other assets will tend to move outside of their powerlaw curve or however else we might attempt to describe their fair value, and sure we can attempt to predict and/or to trade those times in which the price of a good (whether gold or otherwise) is above or below its trend, and surely there can be long periods in which we experience over or under performance of any particular asset.

Surely gold had not been doing very well since around 2011, yet maybe gold got overpriced in 2011, but then there has been a lot claims also that gold has been being demonetized, which tends to show some aspects of gold's vulnerability towards being manipulated through the various paper markets, and there can be questions about the extent to which bitcoin can be manipulated in similar ways since bitcoin is way easier to take possession of and to even transact with fewer costs and fewer needs for middlemen, especially when we are getting into larger quantities, gold's physicality can become way more  of a cost rather than a benefit.

Of course, gold could get some momentum from here, yet likely many of us bitcoiners consider that gold hardly has a chance against bitcoin.. even though surely there could be some extended times in which gold regains some value, even relative to bitcoin.. though surely, I would not bet on such a thing happening, even though surely there are some guys who might feel comfortable to at least hedge their bets, especially if they are already comfortable with gold ownership... yet there are so many younger generations who are not actually comfortable with either actual gold ownership or even getting exposure to gold through inferior paper forms of gold ownership.

[NeuroticFish]

I am not even sure if set back is any kind of proper label, beyond proclaiming somewhat normal up and down moves.

I'm not sure either. Don't get it as a label, get it just a word for that context. One that maybe could have been chosen better, but I am not that good.

Trump has a lot of outrageous actions around various aspects of trying to affect the economy and even engaging in attacks of various aspects of the government that seemed beyond attacking, so those behaviors have some potential ramifications in the creation of various uncertainties, yet at the same time, there had been quite a few surprising aspects of various bitcoin promises (even accounting for some of the various shitcoining noises) that Trump and friends are seeming to follow through as good as could be expected when it comes to bitcoin oriented attempts at policies that he might be able to carry out through the Executive branch or with some cross branch attempts at complimentary policies/legislation.

Indeed. Interestingly said. You almost made it sound good and I don't agree he has done good anything else than Bitcoin, and I'm not 100% sure about bitcoin either (because the jump from bitcoin reserve to shitcoin reserve and back tells he doesn't really know what he's doing and he may just allow in the highest bidder, not mentioning the hideous rugpull done with his shitcoin. I see those more than noise.). But yeah, time will tell... Sooner or later the (current) bull run has to continue.

I always have a question about the gold price going up, it's just a correction from the price or is a real pumping?. I mean with all the inflation we have and all the cash in the martket can happen that is only going up to stay to the same level of other years and not a real one apreciation?

From what I know it's an ATH for gold compared to USD without taking inflation into account.
However, I've asked DeepSeek and according to its answer, in order to match the ATH from 1980 and take inflation also into account, the gold price should get now to 3,153.5 USD/oz... which is pretty close to, but not there yet.

However, gold price growth over time is a sad joke compared to what Bitcoin is capable of.

[cryptofrka]

However, gold price growth over time is a sad joke compared to what Bitcoin is capable of.

In short, well, yes. I always invested in BTC thinking it will be a store of value and not money.

However, the market still perceives BTC as a risk-on asset. That is clearly visible in a lack of correlation with gold - in these risky times people were moving from BTC to gold - meaning we're not there yet.

BTC basically has all the advantages and no disadvantages of gold, drawing the conclusion that at some point in time it will be perceived as the best store of value - and then we'll reach Saylor's 1mil+ predictions.
I thought we're getting there this time, market clearly showed us that the majority still disagrees.

[Volgastallion]

I always have a question about the gold price going up, it's just a correction from the price or is a real pumping?. I mean with all the inflation we have and all the cash in the martket can happen that is only going up to stay to the same level of other years and not a real one apreciation?

From what I know it's an ATH for gold compared to USD without taking inflation into account.
However, I've asked DeepSeek and according to its answer, in order to match the ATH from 1980 and take inflation also into account, the gold price should get now to 3,153.5 USD/oz... which is pretty close to, but not there yet.

However, gold price growth over time is a sad joke compared to what Bitcoin is capable of.

Thanks for re-check what i said. It was like i think.

About your last statement yes, gold is only gonna prevent you from losing value, but is not gonna let you take profits as a real. In change BTC is not only be a store of value but also can make you win a huge profit!.

If you do a DCA in gold you are gonna only preserve your value, but if you do a DCA in BTC you can be rich in a few years depending on how much you invest on it.

[Volgastallion]

Well we are into the month where the second cut on our contest happens, and today we have news from our orange man, how the tax war is gonna impact on our beloved bitcoin and in the crypto market in general?

What do you expect to see guys? Is already discounted by the market?

[buwaytress]

^ Already discounted, but for some reason price actually shot all the way to almost 88k, knowing that even the most conservative estimates were looking at high tariffs.

Didn't expect it to tumble so much, today broke 82k support temporarily. I'm looking pretty good actually with my 87k target, should see some recovery towards 88k over the next couple of weeks or so.