VOLGASTALLION CONTESTS DISCUSSION THREAD

[Volgastallion]

^ Already discounted, but for some reason price actually shot all the way to almost 88k, knowing that even the most conservative estimates were looking at high tariffs.

Didn't expect it to tumble so much, today broke 82k support temporarily. I'm looking pretty good actually with my 87k target, should see some recovery towards 88k over the next couple of weeks or so.

A lot of people was talking about the market already discounted this, but i was afraid of it i have to be honest. We all know how this work but you never try to time the market, i also think we already didnt see the full waves of this movement, lets see how all of this keep developing.

For us the important date is on 20 April 

[Volgastallion]

Seems like the "already discounted" wasnt discounted at 100%.

I know this is the second phase because we are now seeing the retaliation of the tarif war against the orange man, but still being from the same basquet.

Who is gonna survive? 20 April seems far away right now, but im not pretty sure if for better or for worst.

[buwaytress]

Phew, yeah, I thought there would be some minor recovery but Monday took a dump, still not sure why everyone had to wait though, the stock markets over in Asia especially I understand, weekend break, but those Bitcoin longs didn't need to be told that was happening!

Apr 20 does seem very far away, but I'm expecting a bit more tit for tat, before more rational negotiations take place and then tariff news doesn't seem so bad anymore.

[Volgastallion]

Phew, yeah, I thought there would be some minor recovery but Monday took a dump, still not sure why everyone had to wait though, the stock markets over in Asia especially I understand, weekend break, but those Bitcoin longs didn't need to be told that was happening!

Apr 20 does seem very far away, but I'm expecting a bit more tit for tat, before more rational negotiations take place and then tariff news doesn't seem so bad anymore.

Yes, 20 april pretty far away with all the movements we are having.

Its only 10 dayss, but in that 10 days can happen a lot, and for our contest much more, a lot of people is pretty close to be eliminated and the margin is pretty thin.

If you ask me for a prediction, i ant really say anything at all, everything can happen.

[Pmalek]

Despite news coming out of the US with the CPI report and inflation rates being lower than initially expected, bitcoin is again dumping immediately after. It's like we can't catch a break. Positive news = a bitcoin dump. Negative news = an even bigger bitcoin dump. Perhaps it's one more tariff increase for China (145% now) that is causing today's fall in value. Orange man continues to do orange man things.

[JayJuanGee]

If you ask me for a prediction, i ant really say anything at all, everything can happen.

Anyone should be able to narrow down their predictions more than merely saying "anything could happen," especially since some outcomes are more probable than others, and sure, even though minority scenarios might end up playing out, it does not hurt to figure out scenarios that are more likely or less likely to play out and even come up with a base case scenario that might be considered to be more likely to play out, especially after certain events happen, then the scenarios might even narrow down, from time to time, and other times, the number of scenarios might be quite great and hard to pin down, yet if, for example, we were to have eight possible scenarios:

Scenario 1:  2%

Scenario 2: 7%

Scenario 3: 14%

Scenario 4:  21%

Scenario 5:  27%

Scenario 6:  22%

Scenario 7: 6%

Scenario 8: 1%

We can see that some of the scenarios are more likely than other scenarios (we assigned the numbers based on our opinions and views of the world, and surely each person may well come up with other numbers and/or perhaps other scenarios), yet it still does not mean that anything can happen, especially if we might have had contained all of the possible predictions into a realm that adds up to 100%..

And yeah, maybe some of the scenarios are very specific, and other scenarios are capturing more variety of things, and perhaps even scenario 7 could be an anything else category.. but still we have higher probability scenarios with 5 being the most likely from our above list, but it does not even have close to majority odds of happening as we have laid out the possibilities, but if we observe that it is likely to be 4, 5, or 6, then we have 70% odds of 4, 5 or 6 happening, but still we know that one of the other scenarios (with all of the others adding up to 30% odds) could end up playing out. 

Even if each of us comes up with a different quantity of possible scenarios and we assign different percentages to each of the possible scenarios, I am still largely saying that the quantity of possible scenarios are still limited and also some of them may be close to others in terms of likelihood, but in the way that I outlined them, each of the scenarios are not equally plausible (or likely), even if from time to time, minority scenarios might end up playing out or we might even calculate our odds wrong based on bad (or incomplete) logic or bad (or incomplete) information.

[buwaytress]

So, here we are, just five days away to the next marker and I can't believe I'm looking like a right genius with my 88k punt.

After all that tariff fiasco, swinging low 75k from 88 and then now back in strength while USD and Asian currencies taking a hell of a beating -- daresay there's no thread more aptly named than this...

[Volgastallion]

Snip

Thanks Jay as always for you vast explanation.

Yes i think always we ahve more common scenarios to expect, what i mean is the odds for everyone are right now not so clear as in other ocassions.

Sorry for not being able to answer before, i just missed your post.

So, here we are, just five days away to the next marker and I can't believe I'm looking like a right genius with my 88k punt.

After all that tariff fiasco, swinging low 75k from 88 and then now back in strength while USD and Asian currencies taking a hell of a beating -- daresay there's no thread more aptly named than this...

What can i say? Yes you are right now the msot close guy and looks like you have a crystal ball  or youa re a genius. But we dont want to be here being so kind in a competition right?
So we are gonna say even a failed clock give the correct hours sometimes.

Now 5 days feels long.

[Volgastallion]

BTC : 84.614

Well guys that was the price of the BTC in our deadline, this means nobody reach the final hurdle, and the prize remaings vacant. Truly sad, we had some people pretty close to reach it, honorific mention to, buwaytress 87k who was super close, this last push can save you if was made yesterday, but sadly for him no.

Re-check if i do some mistakes and let me know.

Im gonna do another contest since i still have the prize in my hands, so when this happen im gonna inform you, this becomes fun and dificult, i was not expecting this outcome at all, all the players miss it.

Other honorific mentions were for, BTCliz (90k), Haunebu 71k who was super bearish,Xlays also super bearish with 67k.

Tagging all the players so all the people knows how this ended.

Code:

Biodom
bitbollo
Woodie
Becassine
BTCLiz
Rikafip
bitmover
xandry
buwaytress
LoyceV
paid2
psycodad
philipma1957
Danydee
BABY SHOES
GazetaBitcoin
Dumper
strunberg
Koal-84
BlackhatCoiner
1miau
nutildah
Betwrong
Smartprofit
fillippone
1dq
Haunebu
krogothmanhattan
AlcoHodl
xlays
pooya87
dkbit98
Odohu
ajiz
slapper
ovcijisir
vapourminer
goldkingcoiner
despairo
NotATether
OmegaStarScream
OgNasty
The Speptical Chymist
Mia Chloe
DiMarxist
cryptofrka
joker_josue
NeuroticFish
Pmalek

Anyways im gonna check when we reach our final deadline only for informational purposes. Maybe im gonna do some graphics or calculations about deviation and means.

[buwaytress]

Indeed, one day shy of hitting it right on the head for me. Was so sure it was happening but alas, literally a handful of hours away from the deadline. Asian markets, or Europe, not sure which to credit, but we're practically back where we started pre-tariffs (87k) so I don't think there will be too many unhappy campers, having survived that fiasco completely unscathed while USD lost 5% vs euro, and most major Asian currencies are in dire straits. Thanks OP

[goldkingcoiner]

Well, I was hodling Bitcoin the entire time so I personally consider myself a winner. 

Even though I was waaay off in my prediction. I wonder how the price would have looked if Biden won the election and did not impose devastating market events that drove down the price of Bitcoin....

[Pmalek]

I am not too surprised to be honest. When I checked the predictions back when I submitted mine, it was very clear that most of the participants (myself included) were too optimistic that bitcoin would keep rising and hitting new highs above $150k and more. That hasn't happened yet. I remain optimistic that it will in the upcoming months, but not in time for anyone to claim the prize this time around.

Thanks for another interesting competition Volgastallion!

[NeuroticFish]

I blame... Trump 

I mean, I would most probably not win this, I was too far, too early.
But without the current worldwide economic turmoil somebody could have had a better chance.

On the other hand, we will have Fun:Reloaded. One more contest, maybe not this difficult either. Or maybe even more difficult, why not? 


Thanks @Volgastallion for the contest, can't wait for the next one!

[LoyceV]

Well guys that was the price of the BTC in our deadline, this means nobody reach the final hurdle

Predicting the price within a range of 10k under the actual price, 3 times in a row, is very unlikely to happen. Bitcoin is just too volatile for that. The first round eliminated 81.6% already. It's fun though, I predict we can probably do this another round without a winner

[Volgastallion]

Well, I was hodling Bitcoin the entire time so I personally consider myself a winner. 

Even though I was waaay off in my prediction. I wonder how the price would have looked if Biden won the election and did not impose devastating market events that drove down the price of Bitcoin....

We need the time machine Doc! To see that alternate future.

I am not too surprised to be honest. When I checked the predictions back when I submitted mine, it was very clear that most of the participants (myself included) were too optimistic that bitcoin would keep rising and hitting new highs above $150k and more. That hasn't happened yet. I remain optimistic that it will in the upcoming months, but not in time for anyone to claim the prize this time around.

Thanks for another interesting competition Volgastallion!

Thank you for your kind words!

I blame... Trump 

I mean, I would most probably not win this, I was too far, too early.
But without the current worldwide economic turmoil somebody could have had a better chance.

On the other hand, we will have Fun:Reloaded. One more contest, maybe not this difficult either. Or maybe even more difficult, why not? 


Thanks @Volgastallion for the contest, can't wait for the next one!

Thank you! Yes im gonna try to make a twist and bring with some new ideas. Now im running one related to the NBA but it seems like it was not so much people interested on it, so for sure im gonna be back to one more similar to this one.

Well guys that was the price of the BTC in our deadline, this means nobody reach the final hurdle

Predicting the price within a range of 10k under the actual price, 3 times in a row, is very unlikely to happen. Bitcoin is just too volatile for that. The first round eliminated 81.6% already. It's fun though, I predict we can probably do this another round without a winner

Well yes, but we (i include) were expeting to see a more higher price. And it was only 2 times you have to be below and in the range of 10k, in the last one the winner was gonna be the one who were more closer.

[fillippone]

BTC : 84.614

If you are going to launch another competition, I am not learning the lesson and I am posting again bullish forecasts.
Actually, bullish af.
Bitcoin at these levels makes no sense.

[NeuroticFish]

Now im running one related to the NBA but it seems like it was not so much people interested on it

I'd say that we, the people of the other continents, are not really into the sports played (almost) only in USA.
On the other hand, Bitcoin related contests... on a Bitcoin related forum... surely have to have a better chance 

Actually, bullish af.
Bitcoin at these levels makes no sense.

I'm with you on this one. But keep in mind that I was bullish in the previous "run" too... 

[fillippone]

Now im running one related to the NBA but it seems like it was not so much people interested on it

I'd say that we, the people of the other continents, are not really into the sports played (almost) only in USA.
On the other hand, Bitcoin related contests... on a Bitcoin related forum... surely have to have a better chance  

Funnily enough, NBA is indeed a different sport from Basketball.
Travelling is different, carrying is different, defence is different (it doesn’t exist).
I don’t know how much you know about NBA, but NBA is like a Bruce Willis movie: all explosion and impossible to dislike, while European basketball is like a Truffaut movie.

[Pmalek]

Funnily enough, NBA is indeed a different sport from Basketball.
Travelling is different, carrying is different, defence is different (it doesn’t exist).

Travelling in the NBA seems subjective from referee to referee and match to match. At times, the refs don't call travelling violations despite players taking 3, 4, or more steps. They want to see dunks and eye-catching plays, not stops and breaks.

I sometimes watch the Euroleague. That's more the type of basketball I enjoy. A better attitude towards defense and the way the game is supposed to be played, historic rivals, and real fan atmospheres. 

[Volgastallion]

Yes i know but i already do some diferent contest trying to diversifie the base of people. But for sure NBA is not gonna be taken so much in consideration in the near future since not so much people are interested.

My best one i think it was the combination between football and BTC, and this one.

About NBA and FIBA basketball, yes FIBA basket is way more real basket where you can defend like a man and the referee is not gonna blow his whistle for anything, in NBA is all oriented to the show and to see a lot of scoring points, so they allow travels and only soft defense.