Is Bitcoin’s Next Halving Already Priced In?

[Sanitough]

Don’t think like a scammer who believes there’s already a set price for the next halving because there isn’t.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price usually rises as the halving approaches, or if not, it goes up after the halving. So, let’s just expect that it might happen, but don’t lock in a specific price prediction.

We still have several years before the next halving. The market is bullish now, but a heavy correction is always possible, just like in the past. If Bitcoin drops to $50K or even lower, I wonder if those hyped about the next bull run will still stick to their predictions.

[franky1]

Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak about 12–18 months after a halving, which aligns with 2025 for a potential ATH. However, do you think macroeconomic factors (interest rates, liquidity, etc.) could alter this cycle, or do you believe Bitcoin will strictly follow past patterns?

bitcoin has macro economics where some pacific island nations mining costs(highest on planet) are roughly $350k this year and were $75k in 2021. so the 2021 ATH did test the top of mining costs where willing buyers dried up because it was no longer great discount compared to mining for the expensive mining regions..

we could see it testing this years top of ~$350k..(dont expect $1m this year), but with the same respect whales may resist allowing the natural macro economics of the free market play out. whales may artificially hold the price down to break the pattern/natural flow and macro economic expectations of a natural freemarket

[Jawhead999]

The difference is Bitcoin price pump earlier than what it has been expected, but I believe the pattern will be same.

Q4 a year after halving should be the peak, so it's still long to go until we see Bitcoin price hit the peak, we can still accumulate from now on. $100K do looks expensive, but if we're looking for the long term, $100K might be cheap in the future.

[batang_bitcoin]

With the next Bitcoin halving coming up, there’s a lot of debate on whether the price surge is already factored in or if we’ll see another big bull run afterward. Historically, halvings have led to price increases due to reduced supply, but with more institutional investors and a maturing market, is this cycle going to be different?

While I am thinking about that but we're still quite far from that day so, we should think for this moment about what's currently we're at. Thinking on the next halving is good and such but I don't think it's relevant yet and you're stressing yourself out from it.

What do you think—will the halving still have a major impact, or has the market already priced it in?

Ofcourse it does. The lesser supply for the miners is impacting the entirety of it. But the price becomes better with greater adoption just as what we're having for this bull run.

[Schiphol]

If halvings were truly priced in four years in advance, we wouldn't see massive bull runs after each one. Market cycles still exist for a reason—supply shocks take time to impact demand dynamics. Maybe OP just wanted to start a good debate? Sure, and I guess next week's lottery numbers are priced in too. History says otherwise—every halving kicks off a new run 

And what happened came after the SEC chairman’s speech, BTC also experienced a slight and not too significant increase where there might be some statements that were comforting, meaning more lenient and allowing banks to accept crypto customers as long as interest rates are not raised, meaning we also need to understand a little and understand the direction of world macroeconomic policy and one more thing, the market is still bullish and the potential for new price increases can always happen again.

You're right, macroeconomic policies and regulatory statements play a key role in BTC's price movements. A more lenient stance from regulators, especially regarding banks accepting crypto clients, could boost market confidence. However, we also need to watch interest rate decisions closely since they impact liquidity and risk appetite. Given the current bullish sentiment, BTC still has room for potential growth, but it's crucial to stay alert to any shifts in economic policy or unexpected regulatory actions.

The difference is Bitcoin price pump earlier than what it has been expected, but I believe the pattern will be same.

Q4 a year after halving should be the peak, so it's still long to go until we see Bitcoin price hit the peak, we can still accumulate from now on. $100K do looks expensive, but if we're looking for the long term, $100K might be cheap in the future.

That makes sense! The cycle seems to be following a similar pattern, just a bit ahead of schedule. Accumulating now could still be a good strategy if the historical trend holds. If we see a similar post-halving rally, Q4 next year could indeed be the peak. Long-term, $100K might look like a bargain if Bitcoin continues its trajectory. Are you expecting a blow-off top similar to previous cycles?

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[finaleshot2016]

With the next Bitcoin halving coming up, there’s a lot of debate on whether the price surge is already factored in or if we’ll see another big bull run afterward. Historically, halvings have led to price increases due to reduced supply, but with more institutional investors and a maturing market, is this cycle going to be different?

What do you think—will the halving still have a major impact, or has the market already priced it in?

Every halving price goes up, you can even look the chart, the history repeat itself and keep proving that bitcoin has potential. Halving always giving a major impact to cryptocurrency, the people's strategy is too take advantage of the halving and I don't think there's a price already because a lot of things happening now, it seems that it could be more if global adaptation happened. No one knows, and besides it's 2028, 3 more years before that happened again.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Every halving price goes up, you can even look the chart, the history repeat itself and keep proving that bitcoin has potential. Halving always giving a major impact to cryptocurrency, the people's strategy is too take advantage of the halving and I don't think there's a price already because a lot of things happening now, it seems that it could be more if global adaptation happened. No one knows, and besides it's 2028, 3 more years before that happened again.

The market has its history and historic rhythm but future cycles can be different, big or small difference, than past cycles. Market can repeat its pattern from past cycles to future cycles, but there are not 100% repeated same cycles.

Each Bitcoin market cycle lasts 4 years because of Bitcoin halving design that happens every 210,000 blocks. 4 years is a long time for anyone who lives in the market and there are big difference in a current cycle to past cycles during 4 years period. About a next Bitcoin block subsidy halving and next cycle, then Bitcoin price in a next cycle, it's hard to say about it now, when we know the current cycle does not end yet.

Predictions
https://charts.bitbo.io/price-prediction/
https://charts.bitbo.io/compare-bull-markets/

[jcojci]

The cycle seems to be following a similar pattern, just a bit ahead of schedule. Accumulating now could still be a good strategy if the historical trend holds. If we see a similar post-halving rally, Q4 next year could indeed be the peak. Long-term, $100K might look like a bargain if Bitcoin continues its trajectory. Are you expecting a blow-off top similar to previous cycles?

The cycle seems to be following but no one will know what happen so we can ony be ready with anything. Accumulating will be the best strategy when the price is in a low price but that will only be used by those who want to make Bitcoin as their long term investment. But people seems want to take action when the price start moves to the high price so that will be okay.

We will see the rally comes soon and that could happen in this year. But in the long term, the price will be more than $100k as the price is reached that time many times. Yes, the peak will be explode and that makes many people shock to see that. That can make Bitcoin be adopted by those people who already seen that happen.

[freedomgo]

Too early to be talking about halving, man. Let’s just enjoy the moment for now.

Bitcoin has already increased significantly since the last halving, just like in previous cycles. For the next one, we still have more than 3 years to wait, so discussing its effects now isn’t that interesting especially since everyone already expects Bitcoin to rise more.

What we should be focusing on is how high Bitcoin can go before the halving. If it hits $250K, that would already be a good milestone for the market.

Totally.
We even didn't see the rally at full force yet, in my opinion.
No wonder we don't need to think for the next one - this one is still swinging and kicking in  

Yeah, some predictions were even higher than where we are now. Maybe if we hit $250K, we'll start to see real market corrections. I don't know, these are just predictions, but they're based on real regulatory factors. So far, things are good, and nothing's stopping another bullish run.

[Russlenat]

Every halving price goes up, you can even look the chart, the history repeat itself and keep proving that bitcoin has potential. Halving always giving a major impact to cryptocurrency, the people's strategy is too take advantage of the halving and I don't think there's a price already because a lot of things happening now, it seems that it could be more if global adaptation happened. No one knows, and besides it's 2028, 3 more years before that happened again.

History tends to repeat itself. If it does again, we might see a good price in the future. As for predicting the exact number, it really depends on many factors. But one thing is clear: the price is likely to be bullish, higher than the levels we saw after previous halving events.

Let’s check out the data and see what insights we can find.

https://www.bitpay.com/blog/analyzing-past-btc-halvings

Halving #1
The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012, and reduced the block reward to 25 BTC from 50 BTC.

Price at time of halving: $13

Following year’s peak: $1,152

Halving #2
The second halving occurred on July 16, 2016, and reduced the block reward to 12.5 BTC.

Price at time of halving: $664

Following year’s peak: $17,760

Halving #3
The third halving occurred on May 11, 2020, and reduced the block reward to 6.25 BTC.

Price at time of halving: $9,734

Following year’s peak: $67,549

[Muba20]

Every four years, after a halving, the block reward will decrease and the block reward of miners will be halved. As a result, the supply of Bitcoin will decrease and its demand in the market will increase even more. And naturally, when the supply is low, the demand will increase, which will help the price of Bitcoin to rise even more.

The positive comments we have seen from prominent personalities about Bitcoin in recent times are increasing people's confidence in Bitcoin, which is why people are eager to collect more Bitcoin. When the cycle comes again, the level at which the price of Bitcoin will be will rise again.

[Darker45]

I guess this cycle is quite different. To begin with, Bitcoin has already achieved a new ATH prior to the halving. But that's primarily because of the hype caused by spot Bitcoin ETFs. It wasn't the halving that pushed Bitcoin's price to a new ATH even before it took place.

And then came the halving. The ATH that's supposed to be influenced by it is expected to happen 1.5 years later. However, because of significant events that have had huge impact on Bitcoin, ATHs were quickly replaced with new ATHs.

Which leads me to consider the possibility that the halving effect on the Bitcoin market is already priced in. That Trump is openly in favor of Bitcoin gave the market a huge boost, much bigger than a halving. That he eventually won added more. In other words, what else could the halving offer that those events haven't already offered?

[d5000]

Which leads me to consider the possibility that the halving effect on the Bitcoin market is already priced in.

This is indeed very likely, in other markets if a "seasonal" pattern is found in the past, traders try to anticipate buying (or selling) weeks to months before the pattern occurred in the last occasion.

It was already the case in several cycles that a (relatively weak) rally started already before the halving. This happened in 2016 and also in 2020, and of course 2023. This can be considered pricing in of the halving effect. However, in these years the rally later returned even stronger and led to new heights.

In all years where we saw a "post halving rally", there were however also other effects influencing the price positively:

- 2016-17: new exchanges replacing the MtGox quasi-monopoly, Bitcoin futures and the first Ethereum hype (with the ICO bubble)
- 2020-21: Tesla buys Bitcoin, El Salvador
- 2024-25?: Donald Trump's pro-crypto campaign

All these three events generated FOMO. FOMO normally shows an effect on the demand/supply situation: more new users/investors and generally more impulsive buy orders on the buy side, less profit taking, almost no panic selling and probably also less spending (buying things with Bitcoin) on the sell side. In my opinion, this can have a much stronger effect on the supply/demand equation than the reduced new supply after a halving.

Thus, it's not that easy to attribute the past Bitcoin rallys to a single effect. It is true that there were also good news in bear markets. One example is the start of Lightning in 2018, but it was a bit a "nerd event" and difficult to sell to the general public.

In general I think all past rallys can be explained by a relatively similar pattern where the halving is an element triggering more positive events:

- first, halving anticipation - this stops the crypto winter and leads to a positive sentiment with less fear in general
- second, the halving effect properly - both psychologically and perhaps also a little bit the "real" mining supply shortage
- third, the general public returning to Bitcoin after they see the price increasing for several months,
- fourth, more attention on positive Bitcoin news, after the general public "is back".

[BitJannik]

While bitcoin halvings have traditionally caused a price jump, the market is in a different place now. The involvement of institutional investors and more regulated environments could mean that the price increase isn't as pronounced. With so many more factors influencing bitcoin's price now like global inflation, interest rates and institutional activity, the halving might still play a role but it's not the singular driving force it once was.

[shield132]

With the next Bitcoin halving coming up, there’s a lot of debate on whether the price surge is already factored in or if we’ll see another big bull run afterward. Historically, halvings have led to price increases due to reduced supply, but with more institutional investors and a maturing market, is this cycle going to be different?

What do you think—will the halving still have a major impact, or has the market already priced it in?

I think it's early to talk about the next Bitcoin halving because we still haven't seen the effect of this recent halving. Bitcoin halving doesn't immediately affect Bitcoin's price. I believe that we will see the effect of halving this year. Bitcoin went this high in 2024 because of Bitcoin ETF approval and Donald Trump's victory, the halving will kick in this month or soon.

Btw what happens in the next 4 years is very interesting. Bitcoin's price is very high. I don't think that we will see as high increases as before but Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars in the next halving to my mind. Banks can now save 2% of their reserves in Bitcoin and I think they'll do it slowly. Their market cap is more than a hundred trillion dollars, if all of them save 2% of Bitcoin reserves, the price will skyrocket.

[Patikno]

With the next Bitcoin halving coming up, there’s a lot of debate on whether the price surge is already factored in or if we’ll see another big bull run afterward. Historically, halvings have led to price increases due to reduced supply, but with more institutional investors and a maturing market, is this cycle going to be different?

What do you think—will the halving still have a major impact, or has the market already priced it in?

Basically, it is clear that the halving will have a big impact on the rise of Bitcoin, because it makes it even more rare to get it by mining, plus because of the high demand, and I believe that will make it even more real. So in essence it is true that the halving will continue to be a major factor. And regarding institutional investors, I think Bitcoin is not only an institutional class asset, but it has become an asset class for countries and even to be a reserve. And, I believe that day by day Bitcoin will become available to everyone in this part of the world.

[MainIbem]

With the next Bitcoin halving coming up, there’s a lot of debate on whether the price surge is already factored in or if we’ll see another big bull run afterward. Historically, halvings have led to price increases due to reduced supply, but with more institutional investors and a maturing market, is this cycle going to be different?

What do you think—will the halving still have a major impact, or has the market already priced it in?

Basically, it is clear that the halving will have a big impact on the rise of Bitcoin, because it makes it even more rare to get it by mining, plus because of the high demand, and I believe that will make it even more real. So in essence it is true that the halving will continue to be a major factor. And regarding institutional investors, I think Bitcoin is not only an institutional class asset, but it has become an asset class for countries and even to be a reserve. And, I believe that day by day Bitcoin will become available to everyone in this part of the world.

It's a normal phenomenal that always occurs with Bitcoin, their tend to be an upsurge during the first year after a complete circle and that's due to the halving that already occurred around April 2024, and not upcoming, the next would be in similar period around 2028 and it goes on and on with that trend. Anyways base's on it's past and present history more people are gradually beginning to believe in the potential of Bitcoin they now see it as a safe heaven for financial freedom in the future hence the demand and due to that it would continue to surge very high due it would experience some correction and gradually dip at random times. Yes, half of the population of the world or even more are yet to have a share of Satoshi's creation but in future it would become very widely spread across the globe, however it's in our best interests to acquire more and hold for the future before Bitcoin gets to that point.

[Andrija Branislav]

It's a normal phenomenal that always occurs with Bitcoin, their tend to be an upsurge during the first year after a complete circle and that's due to the halving that already occurred around April 2024, and not upcoming, the next would be in similar period around 2028 and it goes on and on with that trend. Anyways base's on it's past and present history more people are gradually beginning to believe in the potential of Bitcoin they now see it as a safe heaven for financial freedom in the future hence the demand and due to that it would continue to surge very high due it would experience some correction and gradually dip at random times. Yes, half of the population of the world or even more are yet to have a share of Satoshi's creation but in future it would become very widely spread across the globe, however it's in our best interests to acquire more and hold for the future before Bitcoin gets to that point.

The time has begun and I am sure the impact of the current market crash will make investors think hard to protect their assets properly and of course profitably. If, in my opinion, these corrections are indeed BTC's journey to become more mature in providing other options and dependence on having to invest people's money in fiat. The important thing is not to be our audience.

[Huliya]

With the next Bitcoin halving coming up, there’s a lot of debate on whether the price surge is already factored in or if we’ll see another big bull run afterward. Historically, halvings have led to price increases due to reduced supply, but with more institutional investors and a maturing market, is this cycle going to be different?

What do you think—will the halving still have a major impact, or has the market already priced it in?

Basically, it is clear that the halving will have a big impact on the rise of Bitcoin, because it makes it even more rare to get it by mining, plus because of the high demand, and I believe that will make it even more real. So in essence it is true that the halving will continue to be a major factor. And regarding institutional investors, I think Bitcoin is not only an institutional class asset, but it has become an asset class for countries and even to be a reserve. And, I believe that day by day Bitcoin will become available to everyone in this part of the world.

The Bitcoin halving is certainly an important event that could affect the price of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's mining reward is halved, the supply will decrease and the corresponding demand will increase, which could cause the price to increase further. This could make Bitcoin even more valuable, especially if more people and institutions start investing in it.

Moreover, Bitcoin is no longer just for institutions, with some countries even considering it as their national reserve. For example, El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, which is a big step. However, this does not mean that it will become widely accepted around the world overnight, but rather its acceptance is increasing day by day.

Therefore, while Bitcoin may become a global asset and more accessible in the future, challenges such as regulatory barriers and market volatility still remain.

[$weetne$$]

Basically, it is clear that the halving will have a big impact on the rise of Bitcoin, because it makes it even more rare to get it by mining, plus because of the high demand, and I believe that will make it even more real. So in essence it is true that the halving will continue to be a major factor. And regarding institutional investors, I think Bitcoin is not only an institutional class asset, but it has become an asset class for countries and even to be a reserve. And, I believe that day by day Bitcoin will become available to everyone in this part of the world.

Bitcoin halving will always be a big influence on Bitcoin price, as the mining reward reduces that is how the price of Bitcoin will keep increasing because the cost of mining is also increasing . Institutional investors are coming to buy Bitcoin regularly and this will also help to make the price of Bitcoin to be increasing. Bitcoin circulating supply reduces after each next halving and I do not think the price is priced in as nobody knows what the price of Bitcoin is going to be when that happens. Even though someone predict it currently, it is going to be just a guess work and not like the individual knows exactly what the price is going to be. Everyone investing right now do not know what the price of Bitcoin is going to be in the future but we just hope that it will give us better profits