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Author Topic: You can't win in the long run without good bankroll management in sports.  (Read 425 times)
stompix
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February 24, 2025, 12:12:29 PM
 #41

Experts say that we need at least a 53% win rate to be profitable in the long run.

That would apply only if you play odd-on games.
If you always play on bets with some sort of value, so like picking a forecast, like betting on the underdog and not even mentioning parlays you will be safe even with a  20% strike rate, in some cases even lower, I know a racing tipster that has barely 25% strike rate and he is still overall well in green.

Now, regarding the 53% win rate, here’s the explanation… ( I rounded it off).


What is the Break Even Win % for Sports Betting?
Quote
Breaking Even on Sports Betting
Overcoming the Juice
Much to the chagrin of novices, sportsbooks take 10% juice (a.k.a. Vigorish) from the losing side of a bet placed. So not only are you competing against your wager, you have to overcome the 10% Vig, too.

As a result, a bettor would need to win 52.4% of the time to beat the Vig and break even. While this doesn’t sound like a daunting number, a bettor would need to win more than the perceived 50% rate in order to compete with this tax of sorts. While not impossible, it’s not easy, and bettors will need to put in a lot of work when it comes to research and strategy.

I don't understand the point that guy is trying to make, he is stuck on the scenario where a gambler keeps gambling on the same odds, and he talks about the cut, well, the thing is the cut is taken before the bet from the pot, two guys bet 110, one wins 100 the other loses everything, the guy that won never had even the remote impression that he could win $110 in the first place.



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February 24, 2025, 12:33:03 PM
 #42

What holds us back from being less emotional and reasonable in our spending? Of course, passion and greed. Greed is in everyone. Who wouldn't want to win? And if they are, then thoughts will always arise that maybe there will be more. In the same way, in case of a loss, it is normal to win back, waiting for the return of your original bankroll. The problem is that it is not always possible to do this, and we are forced to leave with nothing if we cannot stop in time.

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February 24, 2025, 12:52:57 PM
 #43

So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?
If not, what’s holding us back?

It can be said no, because emotions often control bettors, the feeling of confidence that they will win the bet because when analyzing they are sure the prediction will be correct, so they increase the bet and it turns out the results are not as expected.
So it is not easy to be disciplined in managing our bankroll, there are times when we can get confused, but if we want to succeed then we have to manage our bankroll again so that we don't go broke.

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February 24, 2025, 01:40:54 PM
 #44

Bankroll management can be a difficult task when it comes to gambling as no one can guarantee you will win. If you can manage your bankroll properly you can win at sports betting in the long run but it is also important to control your emotions when you place your bets. When you are winning your emotions can increase and you may want to bet more. When you are losing you may get frustrated and want to bet more. In both cases it is important to control your emotions and not bet more than your set amount.
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February 24, 2025, 02:01:32 PM
 #45

Bankroll management can be a difficult task when it comes to gambling as no one can guarantee you will win.
you do not have to win to manage your bankroll

often times when you are losing bankroll management is needed more than ever
Quote
When you are winning your emotions can increase and you may want to bet more. When you are losing you may get frustrated and want to bet more. In both cases it is important to control your emotions and not bet more than your set amount.
and that is where bankroll management enters when you have a set amount you are not going to be tempted to go and gamble some more because you would want to stick with your bankroll
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February 24, 2025, 02:07:38 PM
 #46

So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?
If not, what’s holding us back?
emotion and the drive that comes with attempting to win back lost gamble fund is always going to be an issue and that is he reason why no matter how much we talk about bankroll management, it is actually more difficult to implement it than it is to just talk about it. most of us don't even calculate our gambling wins and losses and just let things go like that, the moment you take a deliberate effort to actually look at your bankroll and try to mange it, you certainly discover that you have been gambling in a manner that can better be described as irresponsible gambling. truth is that it is never easy to manage your bankroll as a gambler but when you take it as a necessity and the easiest way to avoid getting addicted in the long run, you just have to do it even if it looks hard and save yourself from a bad gambling experience.

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February 24, 2025, 02:39:25 PM
 #47

The importance of bankroll management in gambling can never be over emphasized, it is linked with proper risk management, knowing the amount to risk at a time and on the selected games, it doesn't cause one to have a good winning streak but can keep the gambler going until they get lucky for their best bet. If a gambler doesn't know how to manage bankroll, they can even lose all their money even before they win.


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February 24, 2025, 03:00:42 PM
 #48

So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?
If not, what’s holding us back?
Can do well with bankroll management but sometimes it's the discipline that is difficult sometimes can break the rules that are made by themselves... But I always make sure that the bankroll will not be big.
Our problem is... sometimes the bankroll is not available every week, so always refrain from gambling.

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February 24, 2025, 03:18:00 PM
 #49

So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?
If not, what’s holding us back?
Can do well with bankroll management but sometimes it's the discipline that is difficult sometimes can break the rules that are made by themselves... But I always make sure that the bankroll will not be big.
Our problem is... sometimes the bankroll is not available every week, so always refrain from gambling.
We cant be perfect and there are really those times or moments that you do break the rule that you had set out earlier. We are just humans on which we do have that emotions on which at the moment that you've been disrupted with those loses that you do have on which it will really be affecting out your emotions on which it will be leading out on having that kind of impulsiveness on which not only on choosing up bets but also into the amount that you would really be using into your bets on which this will be that resulting into this behavior. Sooner or later at the moment that you had made out such experience then you will be able to find out on what are those mistakes that you had done in the past. It is really just that there are those situations that you do able to realize and on next time you do know on what you should gonna do. Speaking about on winning up on sports betting then it will be just that basing up into your bankroll management but also into emotional control as well. You would be finding out its relevance at the moment that you had made out adjustments in both thing at the time that you do make some sports betting. Well, it cant be perfect but you will be able to see out on how important it would be on having that kind of moderation and control towards self.

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February 24, 2025, 03:35:38 PM
 #50


So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?
If not, what’s holding us back?
I would say yes we can be discipline,  firstly understand that discipline is a state of mind and anyone can actually have that state of mind if they want to, if you decide to put yourself in a position where you will be discipline and get this done, I believe it's just a matter of time and you will be able  to get this done and begin to be profitable,  since the key factor here is discipline,  all it takes it that discipline mindset which is again achievable at all times.

 
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February 24, 2025, 03:52:10 PM
 #51

Bankroll management is just prevent you from loss more than what you can afford to lose.

While winning in the long run is a combination of skill and luck.

It's a very big difference and either of them has no correlation, if you have a good skill and luck, you can win in the long run, which make you don't have to manage your bankroll.

Managing bankroll has no impact to win in gambling.

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February 24, 2025, 04:12:14 PM
 #52

If a beginner asks for my advice about the best way to approach gambling I would emphasize more risk management because it's the most important thing you need to practice, it cuts down and mitigates the losses you incur. As we all know losses are inevitable in gambling, but with proper bankroll management you can reduce the impacts of those losses. As someone that gambles on sports I don't chase my profits and I also don't double my stake on the next game because my previous bet wasn't successful, I make sure that my stake is always the same amount and something that wouldn't bother me Even if I lose.

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February 24, 2025, 04:21:42 PM
 #53

And if they are, then thoughts will always arise that maybe there will be more. In the same way, in case of a loss, it is normal to win back, waiting for the return of your original bankroll. The problem is that it is not always possible to do this, and we are forced to leave with nothing if we cannot stop in time.

True, but most gamblers can't see that simple fact and digest their losses instead, they go ahead and keep trying until they lose more and eventually stop when they have nothing left to try again. It's a wrong mindset but you can't convince them because sometimes, as you said, it happens to give us our money back when we try again, but since it's gambling and house will most probably stay above, we can't achieve that every time.

The right mindset for a gambler is to understand that the money you lose in one session is gone for good, you can try your luck again later and you may win something back, but there is still no guarantee for that, and when you don't win in the next session, the same thing applies, trying harder doesn't get you your money back in gambling, that's not how this system is designed.

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February 24, 2025, 04:27:47 PM
 #54

Bankroll management is just prevent you from loss more than what you can afford to lose.

While winning in the long run is a combination of skill and luck.

It's a very big difference and either of them has no correlation, if you have a good skill and luck, you can win in the long run, which make you don't have to manage your bankroll.

Managing bankroll has no impact to win in gambling.

When gamblers do Bankroll management well, it does prevent bigger losses. I don't know if it really is that important for the long-term winning of sports bettors. because some sports bettors sometimes spend their money on some bets.
maybe in casino games, it will be related to longer game will last. but in sports betting what happens is maybe divided into more bets. even that will not give more chances to win.
as you said, in sports betting gamblers will rely more on their skill and luck.

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February 24, 2025, 04:37:53 PM
 #55

So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?

This is subjective.  There are people who are able to control themselves in gambling and there are also people who can't.  So the answer to this is yes and no.  Yes for those who have a strong sense of self-control and no for those who prioritize entertainment or are easily triggered to revenge gambling.

If not, what’s holding us back?

Mostly greed is holding us back, we also can't remove the possibility of pride or have not learned the proper bankroll management.

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February 24, 2025, 04:43:01 PM
 #56

.....

So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?
If not, what’s holding us back?

to be able to be disciplined in bankroll management it may require consistency from gambler... it may be more difficult because even though gamblers have set their bankroll but still gamble beyond the limits, either because they are carried away or because they want to chase their losses. they gamble without thinking about the bankroll they have set before. things like this are what make it difficult for the majority of gamblers to gamble according to the bankroll they have set. but if they should have good consistency in maintaining how they manage their bankroll and continue to gamble within limits, it shouldn't be a problem for them.

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February 24, 2025, 04:48:50 PM
 #57

.....
So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?
If not, what’s holding us back?

to be able to be disciplined in bankroll management it may require consistency from gambler... it may be more difficult because even though gamblers have set their bankroll but still gamble beyond the limits, either because they are carried away or because they want to chase their losses. they gamble without thinking about the bankroll they have set before. things like this are what make it difficult for the majority of gamblers to gamble according to the bankroll they have set. but if they should have good consistency in maintaining how they manage their bankroll and continue to gamble within limits, it shouldn't be a problem for them.

The dilemma of most gamblers is to play beyond their set limits. As they can easily deposit after they got busted, sometimes it is how they control themselves in front of their games. You can only have good bankroll management if you practice discipline all the time. Call it a day after you depleted your bankroll for that session. Don't make excuses just to replenish with another deposit. Because being lenient with yourself will eventually break your limits.

So yes, you can be disciplined if you are determined to follow your set boundaries and not go beyond your expenditures. If not, remind yourself about the aftermath of your decision. Because at the end of the day, it is your own financials which will be directly affected and that is your business to take care of.

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February 24, 2025, 05:28:18 PM
 #58

What holds us back from being less emotional and reasonable in our spending? Of course, passion and greed. Greed is in everyone. Who wouldn't want to win? And if they are, then thoughts will always arise that maybe there will be more. In the same way, in case of a loss, it is normal to win back, waiting for the return of your original bankroll. The problem is that it is not always possible to do this, and we are forced to leave with nothing if we cannot stop in time.

Passion and greed... I would say greed is already enough to derail the feelings of any bettor, in my opinion.
It is quite ironic, because I would dare to say greed is one of the main fuels of this industry and also what fuels people to seek to predict the future and guess on matches.
In the case of passion, there are very few people who only bet for the sake of the passion of sports, even those who do end up seeking for money, to monetize their knowledge and passion for their sport.

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February 24, 2025, 09:58:23 PM
 #59

::///:::

Bankroll management involves many things, in fact let's start with that adjective, you really understand it (we understand), management.

In your words, some things related to the concept, I have mentioned it in other posts, management begins by not using the phrase; "use money that you are willing to lose," no, eliminate it, use money that you are willing to make profitable, to win.(by fM)

Those who use that phrase from the start do not plan anything, and therefore do not understand the importance of a bet size, bankroll management begins by understanding that you have to be clear about your bet size, and in that line be able to support emotional bets, yes, no matter how organized or planned you are, the bettor who says he does not have them is a liar, but the problem is not making them, it is not being aware of their planning or allowing them within a framework of profits.

Bankroll management starts with having a healthy life as far as possible, your gaming environment,  have a proper sex life, yeah,  there are stress has to be released, hehe, but seriously, bankroll management for betting is not putting your hands in your pockets and betting, well at least if you want to get out of that recreational player status you have to start doing many things, it's not magic, or it's not just saying: I manage my wallet/deposits."

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February 24, 2025, 10:05:14 PM
 #60

Experts say that we need at least a 53% win rate to be profitable in the long run. That means proper bankroll management is essential. if we hit that percentage, profit is guaranteed.

But… let’s be real.
Most gamblers don’t really have the discipline to manage their bankroll properly. First, many don’t have a decent bankroll, making it difficult to manage bets with limited funds. As a result, even if we hit a 53% win rate in a single session, placing multiple bets, the moment we start losing, our emotions take over. That’s when we bet aggressively to chase losses, and more often than not, it leads to even bigger losses.

So the question is: Can we really be disciplined when it comes to bankroll management?
If not, what’s holding us back?

Which experts are these? Surely you only need a 51% or even 50.5% win rate to technically be profitable in the long run? Is this some margin of error that you have added on top of the 50% break even mark, because it is not explained at all. If you're really looking at this level and pouring over the odds to squeak that extra bit of money out of your bets, then certainly checking the odds across many different bookmakers will make a huge difference in the long run - as I've seen variability around 0.1 on some tight football game odds between bookmakers, but if you start looking at horse races as well you begin to see massive differences in prices offered and there is certainly the potential for arbitrage there.. if you can keep your accounts alive.

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