Bitcoin in a New Phase - [A Theory]

[Churchillvv]

Bitcoin has been on a very long/short dip since the beginning of 2025 and it's has seem like a norm that we all don't care much about the little drop down from it's former ATH to this current price of $86k even though we do show concerns but perhaps with our believes and expectations of the 2025 bull run and using the the know patterns of bitcoin bull run the dips are still normal as long as it has not dipped below/above 32% according some guys.

But then my major concern is the recent reaction of the market, after a tweet from Trump about the Crypto Strategic Reserve which he mentioned Alts as major Strategic Reserve before reconstructing to mention that he also love bitcoin and the mother of Alts Eth.

Immediately after that bitcoin price rallied from $85k to $95k which is more like a 10% increase in less than 5hrs and now in less than 30hrs bitcoin has return back to its previous position of $85k.



This image displays a complete manipulation

With all this happening I feel that the sudden reaction of bitcoin or the market generally is more of a manipulation it may seem very unlikely but from what I'm smelling bitcoin has left it's fighting stage with the former regime to a new phase of "manipulation"

One of the biggest fear of a coiner (bitcoin) must be fear of bitcoin being manipulated one but perhaps it seems that we are likely to begin to face our fears as the Pro bitcoin or crypto regime is now a manipulative regime. This thoughts has been on me for quite some time now before the sudden reaction of the market which seems to point more to my instincts interpretation of Trump pro crypto statements during election and/or campaign.

This is just my opinion, your opinion might be different.

[franky1]

if you zoom out your chart from the chart just displaying one day.. you get to learn alot more

for instance in 2017 as a comparison
everything from january to august seem somewhat flat
jan-may super "boring"
May to august a little more action bit still boring in comparison to price action after august 2017

then in december2017 we had the 2017 ATH

then if we zoom in on say march2017:

we see that in march 2017 the market peaked passed(for the first time) the previous 2013 ATH($1.2k)
and then it dropped by 25%($1.25k-$1k)

then as i said in first graph in the big scope of things march-august seemed somewhat boring in the big scope of things

so if we call november 2024(first peak above previous ultimate ATH) as similar to march 2017
then 5 months would be the same dull period.. so boring till mid april

[notocactus]

But then my major concern is the recent reaction of the market, after a tweet from Trump about the Crypto Strategic Reserve which he mentioned Alts as major Strategic Reserve before reconstructing to mention that he also love bitcoin and the mother of Alts Eth.

Immediately after that bitcoin price rallied from $85k to $95k which is more like a 10% increase in less than 5hrs and now in less than 30hrs bitcoin has return back to its previous position of $85k.

If you don't know.
Bitcoin price action mirrors 2019 ‘Xi pump,’ are new BTC lows incoming?

It is just the news for you, but I disagree with the news title because 2019 is a bearish year, and 2025 is a bullish year. The writer tends to spread fud and make inexperienced people in the market panicly react.

The common thing between two pumps is they are from National Leader effects on national policies on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market as well as blockchain industry. The bottom line is more simpler than that, do you see China has any progress years after the Xi-pump?

Think about it with Trump-pump.

Honestly I did not know the first article and I only see it when I tried to search for Xi-pump for sharing it to you. Someone already connecting the dots, but attaching some perhaps 'manipulative' initiative to spread fear.

[ThemePen]

Recent changes in Bitcoin price have been interesting. Bitcoin price dropped from its all time high to around $86000 which seems normal considering expected price increases in 2025 and past patterns. However market reacted quickly to Trump tweet about the Crypto Strategic Reserve causing concerns. Bitcoin price rose 10% in 5 hours then returned to its original price within 30 hours suggesting possible price manipulation. This is worrying because studies show price manipulation is big issue in Bitcoin . Impact of Trump tweet and following price changes indicate external factors may be influencing Bitcoin price. Fear of manipulation is legitimate concern for Bitcoin investors and it is natural to worry about how this could affect Bitcoin future.

[Oshosondy]

Recent changes in Bitcoin price have been interesting.

I think there is nothing interesting about what is happening recently. Something that is like manipulating the market is not interesting at all.

Bitcoin price dropped from its all time high to around $86000 which seems normal considering expected price increases in 2025 and past patterns.

Bitcoin dropped below $78000 before a support that it was not able to drop below for this time.

[franky1]

This is worrying because studies show price manipulation is big issue in Bitcoin . Impact of Trump tweet and following price changes indicate external factors may be influencing Bitcoin price. Fear of manipulation is legitimate concern for Bitcoin investors and it is natural to worry about how this could affect Bitcoin future.

every few years we see an influx of naive newbies with emotions raging and no experience to know the word patience
we see this when some silly non invested(yet) influencer says the magic B word and these naive traders react..
it takes a few reactions before the naive traders learn from their mistakes and suddenly no one cares about whats said on twitter for a couple years.. until the next influx of emotional newbie traders arrive with their itchy trigger fingers making mistakes with every tweet notification click to order reaction, untill they too learn the hard way

i dont see these 24 hour price drama events as being whale baiting manipulation. but baiting young guppys emotional reactions

whales usually manipulate the price to lock price into a boring period for 1week-1 month to stop the price going too low or too high so that their "futures options" contracts complete and win

[Catenaccio]

every few years we see an influx of naive newbies with emotions raging and no experience to know the word patience
we see this when some silly non invested(yet) influencer says the magic B word and these naive traders react..
it takes a few reactions before the naive traders learn from their mistakes and suddenly no one cares about whats said on twitter for a couple years.. until the next influx of emotional newbie traders arrive with their itchy trigger fingers making mistakes with every tweet notification click to order reaction, untill they too learn the hard way

Newbies are neccesssary elements in the market and in each new market cycle, they are people who are like vitamins and helpful for market growth especially in Euphoria phase for Bitcoin to top off its ATH.

Newbies are big in number and they are able to bring very good new capital into the market so their capital will be very helpful for lifting up the Bitcoin demand, hype and its price can raise consequently.

Newbies have common impatience and lack of knowledge, experience so they are most vulnerable people in the volatile market. News, FUD can easily beat newbies down in this market, but there is market liquidation can bring more pains to newbies.

https://hodl.camp/
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-profitable-days/
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

Three charts that hopefully can help newbies understanding more and better about Bitcoin market, its cycle, and have stronger belief, more patience and better ability to hold their bitcoin.

[Churchillvv]

if you zoom out your chart from the chart just displaying one day.. you get to learn alot more

for instance in 2017 as a comparison
everything from january to august seem somewhat flat
jan-may super "boring"
May to august a little more action bit still boring in comparison to price action after august 2017

then in december2017 we had the 2017 ATH

then if we zoom in on say march2017:

we see that in march 2017 the market peaked passed(for the first time) the previous 2013 ATH($1.2k)
and then it dropped by 25%($1.25k-$1k)

then as i said in first graph in the big scope of things march-august seemed somewhat boring in the big scope of things

so if we call november 2024(first peak above previous ultimate ATH) as similar to march 2017
then 5 months would be the same dull period.. so boring till mid april

Of course I have little to know experience regarding the 2017 bull run and yes it might follow the 2017 pattern but looking at the situation from other point of view it might seem like something is very suspicious around the pump.

From January to August might be some what dull according to your speculation yet for some reason I still don't agree with your instincts towards the market. perhaps patterns may repeat but the sudden reaction towards a tweet smells manipulative to me.

If from 2013 ATH price peaked march and then dropped 25% again yet it has little to no close relationship between the pump and dump in less than 24hrs.

I'll keep watching and making observation all through the year to see if it's actually a pattern repetition.

This is worrying because studies show price manipulation is big issue in Bitcoin . Impact of Trump tweet and following price changes indicate external factors may be influencing Bitcoin price. Fear of manipulation is legitimate concern for Bitcoin investors and it is natural to worry about how this could affect Bitcoin future.

every few years we see an influx of naive newbies with emotions raging and no experience to know the word patience
we see this when some silly non invested(yet) influencer says the magic B word and these naive traders react..
it takes a few reactions before the naive traders learn from their mistakes and suddenly no one cares about whats said on twitter for a couple years.. until the next influx of emotional newbie traders arrive with their itchy trigger fingers making mistakes with every tweet notification click to order reaction, untill they too learn the hard way

i dont see these 24 hour price drama events as being whale baiting manipulation. but baiting young guppys emotional reactions

whales usually manipulate the price to lock price into a boring period for 1week-1 month to stop the price going too low or too high so that their "futures options" contracts complete and win

If newbies like me are not naive how then do we learn? I guess all this contributes to a good knowledge of bitcoin in the coming years and I will only have to learn gradually from all this experiences.

Recent changes in Bitcoin price have been interesting.

I think there is nothing interesting about what is happening recently. Something that is like manipulating the market is not interesting at all.

Bitcoin price dropped from its all time high to around $86000 which seems normal considering expected price increases in 2025 and past patterns.

Bitcoin dropped below $78000 before a support that it was not able to drop below for this time.

Of course I agree with you that there is a burning manipulation smelling around it might not be obvious now but probably we might keep seeing reactions towards that.

Maybe manipulation is the next phase of bitcoin challenges

[Smartvirus]

Recent changes in Bitcoin price have been interesting. Bitcoin price dropped from its all time high to around $86000 which seems normal considering expected price increases in 2025 and past patterns. However market reacted quickly to Trump tweet about the Crypto Strategic Reserve causing concerns. Bitcoin price rose 10% in 5 hours then returned to its original price within 30 hours suggesting possible price manipulation. This is worrying because studies show price manipulation is big issue in Bitcoin . Impact of Trump tweet and following price changes indicate external factors may be influencing Bitcoin price. Fear of manipulation is legitimate concern for Bitcoin investors and it is natural to worry about how this could affect Bitcoin future.

We’ve seen this episode before, with Elon Musk and Tesla, having to announce on his tweet that, Bitcoins can come in for Tesla, that was before the climate change theory of it struck but then, we saw Doge. Some means to influence investor decisions right. Investors learned eventually.

Here yet again, we have Trump pushing similar narrative and this time, it’s a lot different, it’s from a president of the US, then we had the Trump coin. Soon, we would find people having to learn too. No matter the tweet, you still wheel how your investment goes.

[franky1]

Of course I have little to know experience regarding the 2017 bull run and yes it might follow the 2017 pattern but looking at the situation from other point of view it might seem like something is very suspicious around the pump.

From January to August might be some what dull according to your speculation yet for some reason I still don't agree with your instincts towards the market. perhaps patterns may repeat but the sudden reaction towards a tweet smells manipulative to me.

If from 2013 ATH price peaked march and then dropped 25% again yet it has little to no close relationship between the pump and dump in less than 24hrs.

your not getting it

your OP chart is zoomed in so close on a 1 day char that you think that a 20% change is massive

but zoom out.. seriously, take the blinders off and see the big picture

and on a year long chart a 25% movement is not much at all. as my 2 charts show. you dont even notice the 25% as anything to even talk about
you would not have even noticed it as a new top and then 25% drop for that point in time unless i pointed it out

and thats the point. this daily swing. is a nothing-burger(meaningless) in the grand scheme of things
the real ATH for 2025 is yet to happen and when it does, the scope of it will make these daily wiggles seem meaningless

when a 400% change happens a 25% change becomes insignificant (a 400 vs 25    a 40 vs 2)
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if you are getting emotional about 25%... then you are going to have a heart attack when the real movements happen, so calm down

bitcoin IS VOLATILE by its very nature
its suppose to move..
the true manipulation is when the price stays stuck within a 2% deviation for over a week. thats when you know things are truly manipulated and controlled
its not suppose to be stable to a 2-5% week-month long stretch

I'll keep watching and making observation all through the year to see if it's actually a pattern repetition.

the last 3 cycles all had a ATH at 1.5yrs after halving
so we still have many months before the true action happens

this new top in november 2024 was not the ATH for the cycle. just like the new top in march 2017 wasnt the ATH
you are yet to experience the true ATH for this cycle.. but for now settle your emotions. and realise a 25% swing is not that exciting

[PrivacyG]

One of the biggest fear of a coiner (bitcoin) must be fear of bitcoin being manipulated one but perhaps it seems that we are likely to begin to face our fears as the Pro bitcoin or crypto regime is now a manipulative regime.

Musk manipulating Doge to oblivion and beyond, Trump launching his own pump and dump Shitcoin, they do match and unfortunately it can be a disastrous match at the end of the day.

I do fear the next four years will be of full on manipulation.  Now, I honestly do not know if we should take the announcement of a Bitcoin reserve as manipulation.  We were told by Trump he would do something like this.  It was a thing he campaigned on and a lot of Bitcoiners ended up voting for him particularly for the better future of their own finances.

You will see whether it is a manipulation or not in the following months most likely.  If they keep juggling the decisions about Cryptocurrencies around like some clowns at a circus, you will know it is all strictly a scam and nothing more.

[DaNNy001]

Recent changes in Bitcoin price have been interesting. Bitcoin price dropped from its all time high to around $86000 which seems normal considering expected price increases in 2025 and past patterns. However market reacted quickly to Trump tweet about the Crypto Strategic Reserve causing concerns. Bitcoin price rose 10% in 5 hours then returned to its original price within 30 hours suggesting possible price manipulation. This is worrying because studies show price manipulation is big issue in Bitcoin . Impact of Trump tweet and following price changes indicate external factors may be influencing Bitcoin price. Fear of manipulation is legitimate concern for Bitcoin investors and it is natural to worry about how this could affect Bitcoin future.

Bitcoin movement has really shocked the crypto community recently because nothing seems to be as it used, I mean Bitcoin is fluctuating like an altcoin that the owners is planning on using to make huge profits off it's investor but still the same it's the because of volatility because even with the recent twist and turn if you have intentions of keeping ur assets for long, then this hubble won't scare you at all since the bull is still coming despite all this drama going on now.

[franky1]

newbie emotional traders will panic at the fud or fomo.. and within hours the whales will manipulate the price back into range of their future contracts target to(undoing any 25% swing)

the manipulators are the ones calming a volatile market. they want the price to be at X for a week or month to win their futures options contract price

emotional traders push past the whale manipulation on a knee jerk collective reaction. causing the whale manipulators to correct the temporary knee jerk

once people realise bitcoin is meant to move and these slow movement times are not the norm. people should fix their emotions and flip their mindset to understand bitcoin more

bitcoin is suppose to be volatile and move as a natural experience.. stability is the odd/unnatural experience

there have always been times when whales use "walls" to make the price stagnant in not pivotal times.. when then when they remove the walls we see the price be natural and wild
..
what if i told you that this season.. there are miners that can mine 1btc for $60k(slavic region of planet)
what if i told you that this season.. there are miners that can mine 1btc for $360k(pacific islands of planet)

so there are a large range of sellers willing to sell anywhere between this weeks ~$90k.. and could bring it down to $65k and still profit
so there are a large range of buyers willing to buy anywhere between this weeks ~$90k .. and could bring it upto to $350k and still feel its discounted

so that wide window of speculation is why bitcoin is volatile, it has a wide potential the price can move between.
so seeing the price 'stuck' is when people should feel the price is manipulated the most
so seeing the price move just 25% is when people should think, 'still boring'

...
if your looking at the days price as a whole chart length, trying to look for patterns.. zoom the hell out
if your looking at the days price as a whole chart length, getting emotional of the price.. zoom the hell out

[DiMarxist]

Bitcoin is in dip I this year 2025? Only for the newbies in cryptocurrency and newbies investing newly in this year. Even those who started last year  would not say that bitcoin has been in the dip since the start of this year. $80+k as bitcoin price is not a dip in this current pricing unless it will be later. And good investors/traders would not panic in this correction period. Though traders loss well last week decline but if they quickly readjusted their trading plans they would make profit again as it is rising.
Before I will say bitcoin has started dip, it should be $60,000 and below. I can still remember in 2022, when bitcoin was $42k, some people were not taking it as a dip until he hit $30k and below.

[Samlucky O]

Surely Bitcoin is becoming manipulative this days, although Bitcoin is a speculative and a volatile asset that can changes in price Over time due to some reasons which market sentiment or rummor  is one of them, but this days the market is being manipulated. But I don't blame Trump or his speach that made people to add or pull liquidity to Bitcoin, but rather I blame this new era Bitcoin investors who allow themselves or their emotion to be controlled by a mear speach. My concern is that if people continue to buy Bitcoin only when there is a positive speculation and sell when there is a negative speculation then Bitcoin is likely to be manipulated. Bitcoin was not meant to be controlled by any body or group of people if not it will become a manipulative asset  but people are gradually pushing Bitcoin to be controlled by government or centralized entity as a medium of making money since Bitcoin is not centralized. Because Elon musk may also comes up one day and want to control the market, then he will also come and proclaim to deploy his own Bitcoin strategy to follow suit with microstrategy or Trump and Bitcoin will zoom like a train and he may decide to post a negative feedback and Bitcoin falls and he may buy in bulk and post a positive news, and Bitcoin will rise and he will pull out liquidity and market will dump. Am afraid that is what I am beginning to see.

[Darker45]

It's unfortunate that Bitcoin has somehow ceased from being a financial technology that promotes freedom, decentralization, transparency. It has now become a sort of a toy for the big boys. At least that's the impression created by its price significantly reacting to mere pronouncements and actions of rich and powerful people who aren't even genuine fans of Bitcoin.

Trump doesn't believe in Bitcoin yet his words can shake its price. The same goes for Elon and BlackRock's Larry Fink and others. It's like these fiat personalities and institutions can play with Bitcoin's price and adoption. It doesn't look great. 

[seoincorporation]

That was the classic bump and dump, but something weird happen this time, there was a big amount of money involved this time, and we are talking about billions, something close to 300 billion dance in the market for this move, and that's an insane amount of money, we are talking about someone who has enough money to start a war.

And the question here is who were the whales behind this insane move? We can be sure someone ends this bump and dump with a lot of money in the pocket. 

[tottong]

One of the biggest fear of a coiner (bitcoin) must be fear of bitcoin being manipulated one but perhaps it seems that we are likely to begin to face our fears as the Pro bitcoin or crypto regime is now a manipulative regime. This thoughts has been on me for quite some time now before the sudden reaction of the market which seems to point more to my instincts interpretation of Trump pro crypto statements during election and/or campaign.

Yes. It's the same promise some politicians make when they start campaigning for themselves but in a much more simplistic capacity perhaps.
Trump has been in the spotlight for his pro crypto statements and most investors may have welcomed this as something positive, but along the way this kind of thing has become taboo because his statements are based on interests that not many people know for sure.

I don't know how his promises can be realized but there is an interesting part of the old man's statement.
If that is true, then we can see how the market has played out since he was inaugurated until now.

[davis196]

With all this happening I feel that the sudden reaction of bitcoin or the market generally is more of a manipulation it may seem very unlikely but from what I'm smelling bitcoin has left it's fighting stage with the former regime to a new phase of "manipulation"

One of the biggest fear of a coiner (bitcoin) must be fear of bitcoin being manipulated one but perhaps it seems that we are likely to begin to face our fears as the Pro bitcoin or crypto regime is now a manipulative regime. This thoughts has been on me for quite some time now before the sudden reaction of the market which seems to point more to my instincts interpretation of Trump pro crypto statements during election and/or campaign.

If the recent BTC price movements were a manipulation, who benefited from this manipulation the most?
The BTC price dropped from 95+K to 78K and then if got pumped back to 93K for a while(because of the crypto reserve announcement) and then it dropped back down to 83K USD. Who benefited from this? The crypto whales? The big crypto exchanges? Someone else?
I think that the markets are simply reacting to the whatever news are coming from the White House. The markets reacted negatively on the new tariffs for China, Canada and Mexico and the crypto markets reacted positively on the crypto reserve announcement. That's all. There's no conspiracy theory here.

[Ucy]

Bitcoin is currently resistant to manipulation. It was a deliberate measure put in place around 2021 or so to prevent the "former regime" and others from successfully attacking it. But the countermeasure does not prevent organic influence depending on how influencial the influencer is. If it reacted positively to President Trump comment then it was most likely not a manipulation. If the comment wasnt organic then the price reacted to something else rather than the comment.
The countermeasure will probably need to be weakened for a manipulation to be possible, but that possibility was anticipated, and a more powerful countermeasure was put in place incase it's weakened.

It was possible to manipulate Bitcoin before 2020\2021 until the countermeasure came into effect, as you probably notice how Bitcoin fought and countered the past regime's attempts