Technical Recession coming for the United States?

[Wind_FURY]

This is not an official forecast/release by the Atlanta Fed, but this is the latest forecast using the same data as the Atlanta Fed.

👀

If this quarter is OFFICIALLY negative, and the next will also be OFFICIALLY negative, then that would make the U.S. economy be in a "Technical Recession". It's actually what Jerome Powell is waiting for to turn the Money Printer on.

Latest estimate: -2.4 percent — March 06, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8 percent on March 3. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 4.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -3.57 percentage points to -3.84 percentage points.



https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

[bittraffic]

Money printer on is going to be lovely. Its going to flood money and liquidity I guess is going to be solved  since we lack it on the market.  I guess this is will save the market and bull season may resume. 

Recession have been predicted since the time of Covid19, they have extended it for more than 4 years. Some say the recession had long started but the FED and banks are just not admitting it.

[DrBeer]

On the one hand indeed recession has been talked about for a long time.... But the question is what will happen to the U.S. economy if Trump does unleash a war of duties, which could have a negative impact on imports of goods to the U.S. market, which could lead to an increase in domestic production - because if there is a shortage of goods on the market, it is profitable to sell them, because you can manipulate the price.
On the other hand, according to Bloomberg analytics, US stocks lost $3.6 trillion in February 2025 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/us-stocks-set-to-erase-3-4-trillion-post-election-trump-rally), which is not encouraging for the growth of domestic production....

[WillyAp]

Money printer on is going to be lovely. Its going to flood money and liquidity I guess is going to be solved  since we lack it on the market.  I guess this is will save the market and bull season may resume. 

Too many billionaires in that government,its headed by one. They don't like inflation.

[Wind_FURY]

Money printer on is going to be lovely. Its going to flood money and liquidity I guess is going to be solved  since we lack it on the market.  I guess this is will save the market and bull season may resume. 

Recession have been predicted since the time of Covid19, they have extended it for more than 4 years. Some say the recession had long started but the FED and banks are just not admitting it.

Because why? - The Money Printer.

People will truly understand why we're actually HODLing Bitcoin as a hedge against the legacy financial system. It's a group of people - The Cabal - behind a system that doesn't want a prolonged economic depression. That's definitely why the cling to Keynesian Economics to prevent it.

Therefore, the invention of Bitcoin, and its success, is a necessity. We're lucky that the network was bootstrapped successfully, and its growth was not obstructed by the government until it was too late.

[kotajikikox]

Recession have been predicted since the time of Covid19, they have extended it for more than 4 years.

Wasn't the pandemic the one that caused the recession? When it happened, everyone lost their jobs and the economies of every countries got hit. But after a few years, some countries were able to bounce back but we will notice that a lot of the countries still have high unemployment rate which is a sign of recession. High inflation rates are also another sign.

Some say the recession had long started but the FED and banks are just not admitting it.

Of course they will never admit it because they do not want to cause panic and stir any more stress among the people. As much as they can they will try to make it like the economy is doing well so people actually feels even more encouraged to interact with the local economy.

[Dunamisx]

This is not an official forecast/release by the Atlanta Fed, but this is the latest forecast using the same data as the Atlanta Fed.

👀

If this quarter is OFFICIALLY negative, and the next will also be OFFICIALLY negative, then that would make the U.S. economy be in a "Technical Recession". It's actually what Jerome Powell is waiting for to turn the Money Printer on.

Latest estimate: -2.4 percent — March 06, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8 percent on March 3. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 4.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -3.57 percentage points to -3.84 percentage points.



https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Maybe all these are part of the way they are trying not reduce on the effects and incidence of inflation leading to recession in US by their way of crypto reserve opinion into consideration, but if I could remember sometimes in 2023, I seem to see a related effect of the same consequences that tends to erupt recession as a result of an increasing inflation on a prolonged term, this is coming again and they be triumph if tackled appropriately.

[ChiBitCTy]

What do you mean by the next quarter Will be officially negative? There’s absolutely no way of knowing this as we haven’t even reached the second quarter for the year so this is 100% speculation. Either way every year and the 20 years I’ve worked in finance someone’s always calling for a recession almost never happens. Just make sure you’re well diversified and your dollar cost average.

[franky1]

when the numbers for years have been inflated due to QE, covid cheques, fake jobs report claims that say selling your garage junk on ebay was a job.. ofcourse the bubble is going to pop when the numbers have to balance out to reflect reality later

when government used debt to go on mass spending spree to bolster GDP. then the final year a gov stops using debt, cuts the waste and stays within budget, it will appear as a recession, even though gov budget is actually in best position its been in for years

..
in october when the jobs report shows many public sector employees are unpaid non workers. it may appear as a bad recession indicator, yet the government budget is at best position its been in for years


when real estate numbers for years have been inflated due to investment companies marking up property prices whilst hoarding non-resident occupying dwellings, yes it map look like GDP growth

however when the building affordable homes that actually help grow community population and opportunity both in employment of a new area and people getting on the real estate ladder.. (real economic positive) it will appear as a recession


recessions are not all bad, it just depends on which side of a deal you stand on.. same with bitcoin. many people think a bitcoin correction/dip is bad.. yet others see it as a discount/buying opportunity

[virasog]

Money printer on is going to be lovely. Its going to flood money and liquidity I guess is going to be solved  since we lack it on the market.  I guess this is will save the market and bull season may resume. 

Recession have been predicted since the time of Covid19, they have extended it for more than 4 years. Some say the recession had long started but the FED and banks are just not admitting it.

I do not see money printing coming anytime soon. However, the risk of recession is very high with the current market conditions. Trump wants to cut interest rates (to reduce debt payments), but the Fed is not on the same page as Trump. So now Trump is playing a dangerous game by crashing the risky markets and that may force the FED to lower the Interest rate. Although Trump does not want a recession, but when there is so much fear in the market, no one is willing to buy stocks, the companies may collapse and resulting in an unwanted recession. 

[Fortify]

This is not an official forecast/release by the Atlanta Fed, but this is the latest forecast using the same data as the Atlanta Fed.

👀

If this quarter is OFFICIALLY negative, and the next will also be OFFICIALLY negative, then that would make the U.S. economy be in a "Technical Recession". It's actually what Jerome Powell is waiting for to turn the Money Printer on.

At this rate it won't just be a "technical" recession but might turn into a prolonged recession because Trump is acting so poorly when it comes to trade. He has shown that not a single treaty or agreement from this country can be trusted for the next 4 years because of his chaotic behavior. It is the American's who are going to suffer the most, because tariffs effect them directly - it is the dumbest strategy and he keeps cranking it up a notch instead of admitting to any mistakes. I have never once heard him apologize and it is the sign of a very weak leader. His ill will claiming to take over countries like Canada or Greenland will leave a lasting bitter taste, once he targets Europe it will undermine the last vestige of an economic plan he has left - they will not tolerate the abuse and the US economy will further implode. Why on earth would anyone sane want this catastrophe in the White house I have no idea..

[franky1]

At this rate it won't just be a "technical" recession but might turn into a prolonged recession because Trump is acting so poorly when it comes to trade. He has shown that not a single treaty or agreement from this country can be trusted for the next 4 years because of his chaotic behavior. It is the American's who are going to suffer the most, because tariffs effect them directly

chaotic? americans going to suffer?
us have put less tariffs on other countries than other countries put on america.. so going 'reciprocal' levels the playing field, and trump can then offer discounted preferential rates if countries perform other duties that benefit america

also if you learn how freeports work, you'll learn how businesses can mitigate things further

and even with that said, for decades tariffs have been a reality and businesses have known that if they meet the standards of the receiving goods country, they can get preferential tariffs.. the only difference is news media didnt report it until now, but its been happening for decades

..
i personally think trump is a fake tan clown. but he has actually surrounded himself with very smart economic advisers this time. and it seems they are doing good, even for trump.. however once the economics reach trumps lips or media news reporters lips, the mis understandings happen because political bias changes the narrative..
the economics are good[if you research deeper into it], but the interpretation or the method of disbursing the information is where things go bad

[Wind_FURY]

What do you mean by the next quarter Will be officially negative? There’s absolutely no way of knowing this as we haven’t even reached the second quarter for the year so this is 100% speculation. Either way every year and the 20 years I’ve worked in finance someone’s always calling for a recession almost never happens. Just make sure you’re well diversified and your dollar cost average.

?

Didn't you read the quoted text in OP? The GDPNow Model is merely taking current data today and gives the current projection, and currently the data says Q1 GDP "might" be negative. We'll know next month what the official GDP data will be.

Plus two quarters of negative GDP is a technical recession, but I believe you already know that.

Money printer on is going to be lovely. Its going to flood money and liquidity I guess is going to be solved  since we lack it on the market.  I guess this is will save the market and bull season may resume. 

Recession have been predicted since the time of Covid19, they have extended it for more than 4 years. Some say the recession had long started but the FED and banks are just not admitting it.

I do not see money printing coming anytime soon. However, the risk of recession is very high with the current market conditions. Trump wants to cut interest rates (to reduce debt payments), but the Fed is not on the same page as Trump. So now Trump is playing a dangerous game by crashing the risky markets and that may force the FED to lower the Interest rate. Although Trump does not want a recession, but when there is so much fear in the market, no one is willing to buy stocks, the companies may collapse and resulting in an unwanted recession. 

The U.S. Unemployment Data might determine that. Unemployment is currently 4.2%, if that surges in the next few months, then expect Jerome Powell to turn on the Money Printer.

[Alpha Marine]

But the question is what will happen to the U.S. economy if Trump does unleash a war of duties, which could have a negative impact on imports of goods to the U.S. market, which could lead to an increase in domestic production - because if there is a shortage of goods on the market, it is profitable to sell them, because you can manipulate the price.

I don't think it's going to happen like this. In a country like the US, this would always have a negative effect. Sure, domestic production might increase, but the price of goods will always increase because the consumers have no choice but to buy what is available.
Also, it would take time before domestic investments increase, so for the main time, the already available products would become expensive. When the tariff is increased, it reflects on the price. I struggle to see how this works out well for the average consumer in the US.

Increasing tariffs should have been increased little by little over a period of years. A 2$ increase wouldn't have been a bad thing because it would not be a significant increase, but a 100% increase is a disaster.

[DeathAngel]

I think Q1 is going to be red but Q2 will not be negative, Trump will hopefully resolve all this trade war stuff & the FED will cut rates at the May meeting so we may even see a V shaped recovery back to near all time highs at the end of Q2. Everything looks bad now but I would not imagine Trump will all consecutive red quarters in his first year back.

[EarnOnVictor]

Well, the US inflation has started rising and so has the unemployment index, however, this is not what would trigger a recession as many speculated because inflation is not an automatic recession cause. But with the GDP-linked statistics as shown in your post, yes, this could spell doom to the US if a serious measure is not rolled out. The way the farmers are now complaining is alarming and I don't think this will spare most sectors due to Trump's approach.

[DrBeer]

But the question is what will happen to the U.S. economy if Trump does unleash a war of duties, which could have a negative impact on imports of goods to the U.S. market, which could lead to an increase in domestic production - because if there is a shortage of goods on the market, it is profitable to sell them, because you can manipulate the price.

I don't think it's going to happen like this. In a country like the US, this would always have a negative effect. Sure, domestic production might increase, but the price of goods will always increase because the consumers have no choice but to buy what is available.
Also, it would take time before domestic investments increase, so for the main time, the already available products would become expensive. When the tariff is increased, it reflects on the price. I struggle to see how this works out well for the average consumer in the US.

Increasing tariffs should have been increased little by little over a period of years. A 2$ increase wouldn't have been a bad thing because it would not be a significant increase, but a 100% increase is a disaster.

You say all the right things, as a logical and consistent person, consider the risks and the impact of the processes on people's lives.... I.e. not like Trump !  Trump is a populist and he needs “here and now” to be worshipped by everyone, and he doesn't care that other people will suffer, it is important for him to show himself as a WINNER, and no other way ! If he said it - he did it, if he did it - it is the only right and useful solution ! Painful complexes are a difficult problem !

[franky1]

But the question is what will happen to the U.S. economy if Trump does unleash a war of duties, which could have a negative impact on imports of goods to the U.S. market, which could lead to an increase in domestic production - because if there is a shortage of goods on the market, it is profitable to sell them, because you can manipulate the price.

I don't think it's going to happen like this. In a country like the US, this would always have a negative effect. Sure, domestic production might increase, but the price of goods will always increase because the consumers have no choice but to buy what is available.
Also, it would take time before domestic investments increase, so for the main time, the already available products would become expensive. When the tariff is increased, it reflects on the price. I struggle to see how this works out well for the average consumer in the US.

Increasing tariffs should have been increased little by little over a period of years. A 2$ increase wouldn't have been a bad thing because it would not be a significant increase, but a 100% increase is a disaster.

i know media and most emotional viewers of media and social media are young and not really heard of tariffs before.. but tariffs have been around for decades.
media and young people dont understand the business world of tariffs so they are as just viewers and consumers worried about something they dont know..

so lets spell things out
businesses know how to be tax savvi and get the best ways to win consumers loyalty..

countries have a thing called freeports and america have them too. which is where goods coming from other countries do not incur tariffs if the goods are not sold to general public but transferred from one business to another as a supply/unfinished product

imagine it this way.
if china makes a finished iphone made filly in china. and sold on a chinese merchant site which is then bought by an american to be imported to the US to that customer
then that iphone is held at us customs asking the us customer to pay extra to free it from customers to get it delivered.

however. if there is a appple direct who is savvi. and gets the PARTS and materials from china, but ships them as parts to america, where a factory at an american freeport assembles and packages the finished iphone in the US. thus making it a made in america phone.. then there is no tariff

so using a example i said in another topic

lets take a example (dummy numbers) of how things will change

imagine china can make a phone for $200 (parts($100) and labour($100)) and sell it for $400 + chinese sales tax rate(13%) = $452
imagine US can made a phone for $400 (parts($200) and labour($200)) start to finish all in the US... and sell it for $800+ ussales tax rate(5%) = $840
many smart savvi consumers would buy a chinese import and save nearly 50% right

but imagine the tariff kicked in. the savvi consumer buying an import would then need to pay $452 +25% tariff=$565

now imagine the phone brand moved final assembly to the US
so US made a phone for $250 (chinese parts($100), chinese labour($90) us labour($60)) co-built china and the US... and sell it for $500+ us sales tax rate(5%) = $525

and hey presto. us is now cheaper then china. and china is not getting its $52 sales tax

[Wind_FURY]

I think Q1 is going to be red but Q2 will not be negative, Trump will hopefully resolve all this trade war stuff & the FED will cut rates at the May meeting so we may even see a V shaped recovery back to near all time highs at the end of Q2. Everything looks bad now but I would not imagine Trump will all consecutive red quarters in his first year back.

You believe that Q2 "will not be negative" because "Trump will hopefully resolve the trade war and that you believe that the rate cuts will be done during the May meeting"? The market will not make a V-Shaped recovery through "hopefully". Plus the Federal Reserve has always been too late in pivoting to QE. The pivot happens during a recession and when the market crash has already happened.

Jerome Powell will not pivot to QE if the unemployment rate doesn't surge. That's the data that everyone should be checking monthly.

[Gozie51]

Trump and Powell simply trying to cause artificial recession because one want to show they have grasp of the economy. Well what I see is rate reduction but I don't know if this is related to the job reduction and if Trump is looking to build macro economy for more investment that will support the economy.