Slightly lower lows: are they that scary?

[d5000]

The double bottom is one of the most well known chart patterns indicating a bullish reversal of a bearish move. It occurs when the price dips two times to similar levels and then reverses, surpassing the high between the dips.


Source (author: Altafqadir, CC-BY)

Now in several periods of the recent Bitcoin history we could observe "near double bottoms" where the second low was slightly lower than the first one, which later were confirmed to be a turning point.

Examples:

- Mid-2023: The price oscillated between 26.000 and 31.500$ approximately for two months. At the end of the phase, it fell down to 25.500 and then reversed. We never saw this price level again.
- January 2024: For several weeks a support at 40.000 $ held and was confirmed several times, but then in late January it fell briefly below to 38.5k and then reversed. We never saw this price level again.
- August 2024: After a dip down to 52k one month before, this support was broken in August and a dip to 49k followed and then reversed. We never saw this price level again (although in this case I'm not 100% sure we won't see it in the future)

Today we've seen a slightly lower low than the February 78k dip, at 77.5k, followed by a slight price increase.

Let's speculate the 77.5k were a short term bottom and we move upside to 90k+ again. If this occurred, then it could, imo, have a similar meaning than a double bottom and indicate we perhaps will never see these prices again.

This is of course a quite bullish interpretation, but observing the above examples of the recent past, it could be a valid theory. What do you think?


My theory about that "strange" behavior is that bears and short sellers try to trigger liquidations of leveraged positions by dumping the price below a certain level, to make the price fall more and re-buy at much lower levels. However, if this fails, then this could be a strong sign that at this price level the support is very strong and demand is much higher than sell pressure. So even the short sellers / bears give up and accept that the outlook continues to be bullish.

[Churchillvv]

Wow, I think your theory is quiet impressive but what I see is that the market is somehow seeming to be manipulated if eventually it pumps back to a new ATH but if it continues to dip then it's a very bearish season approximately.

I'm not a technical analyst nor do I have any knowledge of charts but for some reason I don't seem to be comfortable with all this ups and down.

[_act_]

This is of course a quite bullish interpretation, but observing the above examples of the recent past, it could be a valid theory. What do you think?

I have even seen triple bottom before. At times is can be up to four bottoms. This happen in bitcoin price in some weeks ago. I also noticed that bitcoin form a double bottom today as the price fall but there is a little more sell than the last and the bottom this time fall a little before the price started to increase.

I think sometimes it is good to take some profit because the market can rise after forming such bottoms and the price will increase and again followed by fall. This happened to bitcoin when it fall $89000/$91500 or so.

It is a very good analyses. But we should always know that those analyses can fail us at anytime despite that the success rate is high.

[EarnOnVictor]

Let's speculate the 77.5k were a short term bottom and we move upside to 90k+ again. If this occurred, then it could, imo, have a similar meaning than a double bottom and indicate we perhaps will never see these prices again.
This is of course a quite bullish interpretation, but observing the above examples of the recent past, it could be a valid theory. What do you think?

Tops/Bottoms (double, triple quadruple etc) are only trading theories, though they work, especially if a trend is determined or a reversal just happened, but they don't always work. They only create support and resistance, they can be broken, which perishes the theory at that time. In other words, no certainty here.

My theory about that "strange" behavior is that bears and short sellers try to trigger liquidations of leveraged positions by dumping the price below a certain level, to make the price fall more and re-buy at much lower levels. However, if this fails, then this could be a strong sign that at this price level the support is very strong and demand is much higher than sell pressure. So even the short sellers / bears give up and accept that the outlook continues to be bullish.

Nice theory, but let's pray that the market did not slip into a determined swing/range/sideways/channels pattern, almost every trading idea and principle fails in this condition.

[DeathAngel]

OP is one of the most detailed & interesting posts I have seen on here in a while. Lots of people are panicking as Bitcoin is down over $30,000 from the ATH. What we are witnessing is quite normal in a bull market though, a close to 30% correction is par for the course. I would not like to see the price fall much lower but we are fine at the moment.

[Roseline492]

The double bottom is one of the most well known chart patterns indicating a bullish reversal of a bearish move. It occurs when the price dips two times to similar levels and then reverses, surpassing the high between the dips.

This double bottom is the strategy I have been hearing people talking about all the time but looking at it here on this graph is very complex compare to how they were explaining it in theory because for someone to identify it on a live market will be very difficult because consolidation movement of Bitcoin leaves the double bottom patterns and sometimes it cannot even go the right way, from the look of this second bottom some person may not even see it as a second bottom because it doesn't look like the first one unless there is a confirmation to it that has to form before someone will no they are dealing with double bottom.

[Dunamisx]

The double bottom is one of the most well known chart patterns indicating a bullish reversal of a bearish move. It occurs when the price dips two times to similar levels and then reverses, surpassing the high between the dips.


Source (author: Altafqadir, CC-BY)

Now in several periods of the recent Bitcoin history we could observe "near double bottoms" where the second low was slightly lower than the first one, which later were confirmed to be a turning point.

People are too carried away let me say for this one, because some were aware of all these and little do they know that it has already happened, then what are they speculating about all these while, this shows we should expect for a bull market anytime from now, as the market already fall, it's now heading towards pumping if we look more closely to the market performance since the early hour of today, it's not a time to fear about the market going dip and allow fomo grip on us,whennwe are expected to do more research on the chart and know what it's telling.

[Lucius]

~snip~
Let's speculate the 77.5k were a short term bottom and we move upside to 90k+ again. If this occurred, then it could, imo, have a similar meaning than a double bottom and indicate we perhaps will never see these prices again.

This is of course a quite bullish interpretation, but observing the above examples of the recent past, it could be a valid theory. What do you think?

If I had to bet on such an outcome, I wouldn't put too much money on it, or I would avoid such a bet if possible - because when it comes to BTC, anything is possible and it all depends on how much FUD or FOMO will be created at some point. Even if the price were to reach a new ATH of $150k in this cycle, if we consider that a 50% correction is not unusual for BTC, we could theoretically see these prices again in the future.

My theory about that "strange" behavior is that bears and short sellers try to trigger liquidations of leveraged positions by dumping the price below a certain level, to make the price fall more and re-buy at much lower levels. However, if this fails, then this could be a strong sign that at this price level the support is very strong and demand is much higher than sell pressure. So even the short sellers / bears give up and accept that the outlook continues to be bullish.

Someone is always playing their own games in the background, so this theory of yours could be true. The current situation is quite favorable for this kind of thing, because until recently the average Joe believed that the price would literally skyrocket because all governments would start buying BTC for their strategic reserves, and instead the exact opposite is happening.

The bull run is far from over, but the fear that reigns in global markets is simply taking its toll, and it remains to be seen how long people will be susceptible to such influences - because sooner or later people get used to everything, no matter how bad it is.

[buwaytress]

- because sooner or later people get used to everything, no matter how bad it is.

I must be one of these people. I'm so used to seeing huge, deeper, longer drops, 'tis but a scratch. I don't want to sound pompous but when we touched 17k after a 65++ high, I was slightly disappointed not to see 10k. My wisdom is that we should see a bottom below 20% of the current ATH -- so I would only sit up if we're headed below 30k.

So to answer OP, this really isn't that scary at all...

[d5000]

[...] what I see is that the market is somehow seeming to be manipulated if eventually it pumps back to a new ATH but if it continues to dip then it's a very bearish season approximately.

I would not really talk about "manipulation" but "agressive whale trading strategies". The attempts (above all of certain hedge funds) to dump BTC below a support level to trigger liquidations and re-buy much cheaper (at least 10%) were for example also probably the reason for the dips from 70k into the mid-50s between March and September 2024.

But my "theory" is that this sometimes fails, i.e. the bears achieve to break the support, but not to trigger enough liquidations for a significant dip, and that this can be a good sign.

Perhaps many bulls now set their buy orders lower than the normal technical "support level", i.e. in the case of yesterday lower than 78k, in anticipation of this phenomenon. They can then buy even a bit cheaper. This would mean we could see this phenomenon (a double bottom with slightly lower second bottom) more frequently in the future.

Tops/Bottoms[...] only create support and resistance, they can be broken, which perishes the theory at that time. In other words, no certainty here.

Of course. However, a confirmation of the pattern I outlined above (i.e. price again returning to > 90k), would be in my opinion a very bullish sign and an indicator that there may be still new ATHs in 2025.

My wisdom is that we should see a bottom below 20% of the current ATH -- so I would only sit up if we're headed below 30k.

So to answer OP, this really isn't that scary at all...

"Scary", in the current context does not mean for me that a long term trend is broken, but that we could be experiencing a major mid-term trend reversal, e.g. a bear market of 6-12 months. For someone who needs the money in the next year, this can be indeed scary. Not for longer term hodlers though

In general I also expect a gradual reduction of the downside volatility in bear markets (if Bitcoin doesn't "fail" or gets into some fundamental trouble). At least the tendency of the 2015 (12% of ATH), 2018 (16%) and 2022 (22%) bottoms clearly hints into this direction. I'd not be surprised if the bottom for the next bottom is at least about 25% of the last ATH or even higher.

[Lucius]

- because sooner or later people get used to everything, no matter how bad it is.

I must be one of these people. I'm so used to seeing huge, deeper, longer drops, 'tis but a scratch. I don't want to sound pompous but when we touched 17k after a 65++ high, I was slightly disappointed not to see 10k. My wisdom is that we should see a bottom below 20% of the current ATH -- so I would only sit up if we're headed below 30k.

So to answer OP, this really isn't that scary at all...

OP, you, me and some others have been in this for a long time so we literally won't even blink when the price drops 10% or even 20% in a short time, but a whole army of ordinary investors have built dreams out of illusions that they will get rich overnight and they can't or won't see the bigger picture or understand the context of the times we are in.

If I were someone who invested in BTC when the price was around $100k, and had invested the money I needed, I would feel pretty scared today - sell at a loss (immediately) or risk an even bigger loss - of course for most the third option (waiting for the price to recover) is in last place.

[Churchillvv]

[...] what I see is that the market is somehow seeming to be manipulated if eventually it pumps back to a new ATH but if it continues to dip then it's a very bearish season approximately.

I would not really talk about "manipulation" but "agressive whale trading strategies". The attempts (above all of certain hedge funds) to dump BTC below a support level to trigger liquidations and re-buy much cheaper (at least 10%) were for example also probably the reason for the dips from 70k into the mid-50s between March and September 2024.

How do we separate this from manipulation? Lol, anyways the sell to re-buy is somehow indirectly good to both coiners and other whales if they are not disruptive in the chart but if the act keeps repeating to a large extent then manipulation should be the only word I can think of.

But my "theory" is that this sometimes fails, i.e. the bears achieve to break the support, but not to trigger enough liquidations for a significant dip, and that this can be a good sign.

Perhaps many bulls now set their buy orders lower than the normal technical "support level", i.e. in the case of yesterday lower than 78k, in anticipation of this phenomenon. They can then buy even a bit cheaper. This would mean we could see this phenomenon (a double bottom with slightly lower second bottom) more frequently in the future.

If that eventually is the case then we would be expecting a big bull run but then with all the current fluctuations I don't see the bull market coming anything close in short term instead I will bullish in like 5-6 months towards the end of the year.

[d5000]

How do we separate this from manipulation?

"Manipulation" for me is the extremely unlikely case that most whales cooperate and send the price up and down in a totally coordinated effort. AFAIK there are studies in traditional markets that this is very rare, it occurs mostly in pennystocks (and in the crypto sector, in the altcoin area).

Instead, "aggressive trading strategies" is what I lined out: some whales are bears, others are bulls. When they spot a weakness in demand, bears see (independently one from another) an opportunity to liquidate bullish positions.

This is also one of the reasons while a totally coordinated "manipulation" is very unlikely: the bears need leveraged bullish positions to be liquidated, otherwise the dips don't go as deep as they went in some of the last major price drops. Thus some whales have to be bulls for the bears' aggressive trading strategy to work.

Of course this also occurs the other way around: when some bulls trigger a short squeeze. But if they fail, this is also often a bearish sign, because it means sell pressure is quite strong in the price area.

About the timeframe until the next bullish move: let's see. I think if we see a major bullish move this year I'd expect it in April/May/June, perhaps even in July or August. I think later the year the bulls will run out of steam. Of course, specific news (e.g. a strategic reserve decision) can change the events.

[Gozie51]

This is of course a quite bullish interpretation, but observing the above examples of the recent past, it could be a valid theory. What do you think?

It is valid that a double buttom can be a good indication of the end of bear giving support for the bull season especially depending on the time frame that it is occurring.

However, I'm of the view that you would have represented the current support level or buttom of this year 2025 in image as represented for the previous years, except the picture above is also representing the current year.

[betswift]

- because sooner or later people get used to everything, no matter how bad it is.

I must be one of these people. I'm so used to seeing huge, deeper, longer drops, 'tis but a scratch. I don't want to sound pompous but when we touched 17k after a 65++ high, I was slightly disappointed not to see 10k. My wisdom is that we should see a bottom below 20% of the current ATH -- so I would only sit up if we're headed below 30k.

So to answer OP, this really isn't that scary at all...

A sell is a sell, and it becomes only better from here, because we are going to hodl appropriately.
And our hands won't be shaken 

[Zaguru12]

My theory about that "strange" behavior is that bears and short sellers try to trigger liquidations of leveraged positions by dumping the price below a certain level, to make the price fall more and re-buy at much lower levels. However, if this fails, then this could be a strong sign that at this price level the support is very strong and demand is much higher than sell pressure. So even the short sellers / bears give up and accept that the outlook continues to be bullish.

Didn’t find this thread until now, I had actually marked out the bottom at $79k and immediately thought this dip was definitely going for a double bottom because the momentum to flip the $92k wasn’t there yet which definitely suggested that the price was coming to clear some few buy stop losses below the $80k. Right now the price is actually holding Above support (double bottom) and from here I think if we can get a strong bounce off over the $84k we might be heading straight back to the six figures again.


But on the contrary with the market conditions and sentiment looking very bad and rough there could be one last ugly fall yet again that should take us below $70k. Overall I am currently bullish too because aside strong fundamentals changing narratives a double bottom has been usually spot on.

[d5000]

However, I'm of the view that you would have represented the current support level or buttom of this year 2025 in image as represented for the previous years, except the picture above is also representing the current year.

The pic is an example graph from Wikimedia for the double bottom pattern I chose it because it shows that to confirm the double bottom the intermediate top has to be surpassed.

Here's a graph from the "real" pattern until now:


(Source: Bitcoinwisdom)

It still looks very undecided if the "almost" double bottom will be confirmed or not. The confirmation would occur at 95000, which currently looks far away. However:

But on the contrary with the market conditions and sentiment looking very bad and rough there could be one last ugly fall yet again that should take us below $70k.

I think currently the short term sentiment depends very much on news, and the biggest factor currently may be the proposed ceasefire in Ukraine. If this ceasefire really takes place, it could have a bullish impact on price, as this would be the first tangible success of the Trump administration and also a glimpse of hope for the world economy (due to the negative effects Putin's Ukraine invasion had from 2022 on).

[Gozie51]

However, I'm of the view that you would have represented the current support level or buttom of this year 2025 in image as represented for the previous years, except the picture above is also representing the current year.

The pic is an example graph from Wikimedia for the double bottom pattern I chose it because it shows that to confirm the double bottom the intermediate top has to be surpassed.

Here's a graph from the "real" pattern until now:


(Source: Bitcoinwisdom)

It still looks very undecided if the "almost" double bottom will be confirmed or not. The confirmation would occur at 95000, which currently looks far away. However:

Okay nice. You have brought the current chat and like you confirm no double buttom yet for this year. I see a push up candle around $76k and I think that has helped price to stay around $80k. Who knows what next move from here will be with the Trump strategic bitcoin reserve, interest rates and whatnot.

[buwaytress]

OP, you, me and some others have been in this for a long time so we literally won't even blink when the price drops 10% or even 20% in a short time, but a whole army of ordinary investors have built dreams out of illusions that they will get rich overnight and they can't or won't see the bigger picture or understand the context of the times we are in.

If I were someone who invested in BTC when the price was around $100k, and had invested the money I needed, I would feel pretty scared today - sell at a loss (immediately) or risk an even bigger loss - of course for most the third option (waiting for the price to recover) is in last place.

Actually just read somewhere (sorry can't quote, it was a passing read on one of those random news item from a feed) that the last two big selloffs were majority involving orders less than 2 months old. Scalpers for sure, but probably also new entrants who came in close to ATH. 20% doesn't blink an eye for us indeed but I suppose I could imagine a guy putting in 10k and seeing 2k wipe out overnight almost. And sadly, there are plenty of guys, students, new adults, all parting with money they think they can get back + more in a short time.

A sell is a sell, and it becomes only better from here, because we are going to hodl appropriately.
And our hands won't be shaken 

Give me 1 BTC last year and it would shake so hard at 100k (it would buy me about 10 years of min wage back home, so I would go home and shake at a farm). #somewhatjoking