Where are we going? The GDP is falling

[Charles-Tim]

One of the things responsible for the falling GDP is devaluation of naira. But no devaluation since naira got to 1800 to a dollar in many months ago which is now more than a year ago. So why the GDP still falling. I was surprised with what I saw two days ago. I was unable to post about it until today.

Nigeria GDP:

In 2014: $568.57 billion
In 2015: $492.44 billion
In 2016: $404.65 billion
In 2017: $375.75 billion
In 2019: $474.55 billion
In 2021: $441.63 billion
In 2023: $363.82 billion
In 2024: $199.72 billion
In 2025: $194.96 billion

I think we have more exports now and naira value is not falling like before. Why the declining GDP.

[Juicyhome]

One of the things responsible for the falling GDP is devaluation of naira. But no devaluation since naira got to 1800 to a dollar in many months ago which is now more than a year ago. So why the GDP still falling. I was surprised with what I saw two days ago. I was unable to post about it until today.

Nigeria GDP:

In 2014: $568.57 billion
In 2015: $492.44 billion
In 2016: $404.65 billion
In 2017: $375.75 billion
In 2019: $474.55 billion
In 2021: $441.63 billion
In 2023: $363.82 billion
In 2024: $199.72 billion
In 2025: $194.96 billion

I think we have more exports now and naira value is not falling like before. Why the declining GDP.

Firstly the major determinant of a country’s GDP includes consumption, investment, Government expenditures, and net exports
I think the major reasons our country’s GDP is still declining is as a result of low capital investment people tend to invest their money more outside Nigeria
Government spendings too is one of the reasons the GDP is declining, if the Government invest more on the production sector of the economy Gross Domestic Product will rise
Our government spends more on frivolities other than investing in human capital development and machineries which will in turn increase our productivity. Increasing investment, reducing taxes to enable both foreign and local investors come in.

[Jostern]

One of the things responsible for the falling GDP is devaluation of naira. But no devaluation since naira got to 1800 to a dollar in many months ago which is now more than a year ago. So why the GDP still falling. I was surprised with what I saw two days ago. I was unable to post about it until today.

Nigeria GDP:

In 2014: $568.57 billion
In 2015: $492.44 billion
In 2016: $404.65 billion
In 2017: $375.75 billion
In 2019: $474.55 billion
In 2021: $441.63 billion
In 2023: $363.82 billion
In 2024: $199.72 billion
In 2025: $194.96 billion

I think we have more exports now and naira value is not falling like before. Why the declining GDP.

This just shows how the mighty have fallen, the countries economy used to be one of the best growing economy, not until this APC lead government came. And things fall apart and the inflation rate goes up. The Naira doesn’t have value anymore. The dollar is the king of them all. The direction this country is heading I pray we don’t wake up one morning and we find out that everything has fallen apart. We just need good leadership to help our economy grow. When Goodluck Jonathan was the President of this country. We had the best growing economy. Not until Buhari came and now Tinubu is the worst of them all.

[Ever-young]

One of the things responsible for the falling GDP is devaluation of naira. But no devaluation since naira got to 1800 to a dollar in many months ago which is now more than a year ago. So why the GDP still falling. I was surprised with what I saw two days ago. I was unable to post about it until today.

Nigeria GDP:

In 2014: $568.57 billion
In 2015: $492.44 billion
In 2016: $404.65 billion
In 2017: $375.75 billion
In 2019: $474.55 billion
In 2021: $441.63 billion
In 2023: $363.82 billion
In 2024: $199.72 billion
In 2025: $194.96 billion

I think we have more exports now and naira value is not falling like before. Why the declining GDP.

This just shows how the mighty have fallen, the countries economy used to be one of the best growing economy, not until this APC lead government came. And things fall apart and the inflation rate goes up. The Naira doesn’t have value anymore. The dollar is the king of them all. The direction this country is heading I pray we don’t wake up one morning and we find out that everything has fallen apart. We just need good leadership to help our economy grow. When Goodluck Jonathan was the President of this country. We had the best growing economy. Not until Buhari came and now Tinubu is the worst of them all.

Na people wey no get anything doing na E Dey suffer am pass, as work no Dey for this country and if person manage get small money like 10,000 naira, nothing E fit even buy. I remember say before, if you eventually carry 10k enter market, you self no go believe wetin you go carry come back but now, everything don change.

You Dey talk say make we no wake up one morning come see say everything don fall apart, I wan ask, E get anything wey still make sense for the country for poor man? As a poor man, everything don already fall apart, because na only the rich na E Dey enjoy for the country, even as some rich people Dey follow Dey complain, at least E no bad for them as E bad for the poor. Na only God fit help us for the country, because if things continue like this, crime go increase pass the way E already Dey for the country.

[igebotz]

One of the things responsible for the falling GDP is devaluation of naira. But no devaluation since naira got to 1800 to a dollar in many months ago which is now more than a year ago. So why the GDP still falling. I was surprised with what I saw two days ago. I was unable to post about it until today.

Nigeria GDP:

The GDP in USD is influenced by exchange rates and can be misleading and not reflect the actual economy output, so I had to convert it from USD to Naira to reflect the actual economy growth since 2014.  From N90Trillion in 2014 to N321Trillion in 2025.

Code:

Year  | GDP (USD Billion) | Exchange Rate (₦/$) | GDP (₦ Trillion)
2014  | 568.57            | 160                 | 90.971
2015  | 492.44            | 193                 | 95.041
2016  | 404.65            | 253                 | 102.376
2017  | 375.75            | 305                 | 114.604
2019  | 474.55            | 360                 | 170.838
2021  | 441.63            | 410                 | 181.068
2023  | 363.82            | 770                 | 280.141
2024  | 199.72            | 1,600               | 319.552
2025  | 194.96            | 1,650               | 321.684

[Charles-Tim]

The GDP in USD is influenced by exchange rates and can be misleading and not reflect the actual economy output, so I had to convert it from USD to Naira to reflect the actual economy growth since 2014.  From N90Trillion in 2014 to N321Trillion in 2025.

For such information, you can use purchasing power parity (PPP) for it. Here is it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

But what that is recognized and that indicates inflation and bad economy is the nominal value and also what I am referring to: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

In 2014, we were the first in Africa up to last year. But last year, many African nations went above us. If talking about African nations now with the best economy, we are not the first country because nominal value is used for it everywhere even on the news.

Bad economy caused inflation and the fall in GDP. It indicates how our economy has been so bad in the recent years.

[igebotz]

For such information, you can use purchasing power parity (PPP) for it. Here is it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

Nigeria is second on GDP PPP in Africa behind Egypt; our purchasing power globally is weak, but our local purchasing power is the second best in Africa. What N1500 can get you in Nigeria if converted to South African Rand can not get half of it in South Africa ( current Africa best GDP) but poor local PPP. If Nigeria had not devalued her currency and still service it like other countries, we would be miles ahead.

In 2014, we were the first in Africa up to last year. But last year, many African nations went above us. If talking about African nations now with the best economy, we are not the first country because nominal value is used for it everywhere even on the news.

Don't forget that the country went from 400/$1 to 1700/$1 in that period, from the top 5 best currency in Africa to top 20. No amount of production would have saved us. Our production and exports didn't decrease but increased. Our exports and production is at it peak since 2023, you can check that out. The fall in nominal GDP is as a result of Naira devaluation as I mentioned earlier nothing more.

[Charles-Tim]

Nigeria is second on GDP PPP in Africa behind Egypt; our purchasing power globally is weak, but our local purchasing power is the second best in Africa.

You are referring to purchasing power parity (PPP) which is used to compare the price of goods in a country with another country.  Presently, we are one of the African countries with the least purchasing power. What that caused the weak purchasing power is inflation, low industries, poverty etc.

Don't forget that the country went from 400/$1 to 1700/$1 in that period, from the top 5 best currency in Africa to top 20. No amount of production would have saved us. Our production and exports didn't decrease but increased. Our exports and production is at it peak since 2023, you can check that out. The fall in nominal GDP is as a result of Naira devaluation as I mentioned earlier nothing more.

I understand your point. I also posted that devaluation of naira contributed to it in the OP. When naira first increased above $1700 in 2024, I remember the GDP was around $256 billion because I constantly keep checking it but it continued to fall. Still naira has not increased above $1700 but the GDP keeps falling.

Also from what you posted:

Code:

Year  | GDP (USD Billion) | Exchange Rate (₦/$) | GDP (₦ Trillion)
2014  | 568.57            | 160                 | 90.971
2015  | 492.44            | 193                 | 95.041
2016  | 404.65            | 253                 | 102.376
2017  | 375.75            | 305                 | 114.604
2019  | 474.55            | 360                 | 170.838
2021  | 441.63            | 410                 | 181.068
2023  | 363.82            | 770                 | 280.141
2024  | 199.72            | 1,600               | 319.552
2025  | 194.96            | 1,650               | 321.684

If dollar to naira in 2021 was 410 and now at 1610, I expected our GPS to be at ₦710 trillion by now or more and not ₦321.684 trillion if production is constant. With Dangote refinery, expected production capability would have increased.

Let me explain it a bit further
Dollar increased almost 4 times since 2021
Price of goods also increased 4 times or more
GDP should have increased almost 4 times or more but it increased just 1.7 times.

That was the question. Why so much fall.

[igebotz]

If dollar to naira in 2021 was 410 and now at 1610, I expected our GPS to be at ₦710 trillion by now or more and not ₦321.684 trillion if production is constant. With Dangote refinery, expected production capability would have increased.

Let me explain it a bit further
Dollar increased almost 4 times since 2021
Price of goods also increased 4 times or more
GDP should have increased almost 4 times or more but it increased just 1.7 times.

That was the question. Why so much fall.

You're not wrong to assumed that our GDP is supposed to be 4x and not 1.7x but let me explain why;

Our production only increased 3% from 2021 so let say we were exporting 40 bags of rice in 2021 and only increased it by 3% in 2025 that's like adding less than 5 bags of rice to our imports. Prices of things went up but Nigeria only had few things to sell. ( 3% increase in production is not enough to boast our GDP even if dollar rises to N5000/$1)

 And lastly devaluation didn't help cause Nigeria depend more on import goods- we were spending more of our export profits on import goods because of devaluation. It became more expensive to import goods, causing many businesses to fold.