confidence is a dangerous thing

[Reatim]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

[Charles-Tim]

Do not let your accurate predictions deceive you. No emotions there. Betting is totally different. But if you can be disciplined enough and go against your will and also not using more than small amount of money, why not give it a try. But expect loss while betting. If you start to bet, you can be exposed to bettors vulnerability which makes them lose. One of the vulnerabilities is frequent betting.

Yes, while betting, confidence is very bad. You can lose, but if you win, it can lead to more confidence (even overconfidence) which is a bigger trap of money loss.

[YOSHIE]

confidence is a dangerous thing

Maybe it often happens, especially in sports gambling, where when we really trust ourselves the results of our predictions will have good opportunities and will win, instead confidence That will harm ourselves, that is the world of gambling, not based on analysis, strategy or prediction, precisely based on luck.

The situation is getting worse if the predictions that are believed to be missed from hope, it is far more dangerous than ordinary gambling, the reason is usually if we already trust the results Winning is usually we will risk all our money, that's where the danger will happen, we might be stressed or frustrated.

So will as usual, don't overdo it or trust our own results, because everything we do in gambling is a game.

[bittraffic]

If you think you are good then just trying betting it on sports platform. There have been many advertised in the forum. I have seen people predict sports matches actually, they are only doing it for themselves to make money.

But if you are confident, try showing your capital and win, if you have a good winning rate, maybe there will be people interested in asking to bet for them.

[FatFork]

am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

You haven't bet, so you've proven nothing. Two lucky guesses don't make you an expert. Decide if you want to gamble or not.

[khiholangkang]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

It's just your feeling because your prediction is validated by the reality of the results of the match that has been carried out, but you may only be a coincidence, and not allowed to take one sample as a trial of your analysis skills you must also have more predictions to judge how great you are.

If the words of the 10 matches that you are analyzing after this have 9 correct matches according to your predictions and analysis then I will say that you are great and you deserve to do gambling in accordance with the capabilities of you have and you have the right to be confident in your analysis when there are many samples or trials done in many teams competing.

This is just a suggestion to question whether you are really great or not, and you will know the results after doing so, your confidence will be very important in this situation.

[MArsland]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Your confidence with evidence of winning bets is very good, and there is nothing wrong with climbing a higher betting level to test how far the analysis can be relied on. In terms of betting, several factors are plus points when you have basic capital in determining choices. Instinct, self confidence supported by analysis that you personally find can reduce the probability of defeat. But you must remember that betting is not only about relying on ability, because human error often occurs that reverses the situation unexpectedly. And that's where luck comes into play

[moneystery]

if you are surprised by your own prediction, it means that from the beginning you were not so sure about your prediction and only made a prediction based on self-confidence and cognitive bias without being supported by strong analysis. the two predictions that you have made and then it worked are most likely just your luck, it is not likely that you can get the same result when you make another prediction in a real bet. but it is your choice, whether you want to make another prediction and put it on a real bet or not. but only bet what you can afford to lose.

[Mrbluntzy]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Whatever advises you get here, you are still left with the final decision either to bet or your prediction or not. Since you have made some predictions which were successful, it doesn't guarantee that your next prediction will be successful again and even if those your previous prediction were also bad, it doesn't mean that others will be bad as well. You never would be too sure of the outcomes of gambling that's why you have to gamble responsibly and stake with the amount that will not make you frustrated if you lose it.

[kotajikikox]

Do not let your accurate predictions deceive you. No emotions there.

Maybe analyze why your predictions were right. Was this the only time your predictions were right? Was it all optimism or were you actually unconsciously basing your predictions over something like data and previous performances?

Betting is totally different. But if you can be disciplined enough and go against your will and also not using more than small amount of money, why not give it a try. But expect loss while betting.

Yeah I believe not too much harm will be done if you try only with a small amount to start. But if you win, make sure that you do not get carried away and start betting bigger amounts.

[xLays]

https://nypost.com/2023/01/15/gambler-loses-massive-1-4-million-bet-on-chargers-jaguars-game/

One bettor wasted a massive $1.4 million wager after betting on Los Angeles before the Jaguars mounted an epic comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30, according to Action Network’s Darren Rovell.

It seems that a gambler has loss this massive amount (1.4 million USD) playing a bet with an odds lower than 1.01! (exactly 1.008)

I think there are several lessons here:
- there is not easy bet! even lower odds there is always a risk.
- it's really risky playing an huge amount. This not helps gambler because the risk is much much higher then rewards!
- gambling is not easy at all! it's really hard achieve a profit even for easy games!

what your opinion about this gambling issue? did you had experience similar experience? how a good gambler should avoid such mistakes?

I will never forget this one. The reason he placed such a big bet is because he’s confident it will hit. Would you place the same big bet on the opposite side? Of course not, right? Unless you’re the most reckless person in the world. But even if you were the richest person in the world if you’re not a risk-taker, you wouldn’t bet against 1.01 odds. What do you think people feel when they lose a bet at 1.01 odds with that huge amount like let’s say they went all-in and lose.

[len01]

Don't let your confidence disappear after making one mistake. I mean, right now you feel confident like you have the right skill to predict. But remember guys, gambling is all about luck even though sports betting has a lower risk but sometimes the surprise comes to destroy your confidence and make you angry and bet recklessly.
Do it with a small amount if you want to try it again to avoid deep disappointment.

[Zadicar]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

You wouldn't know unless you would be trying out for yourself, the key on here is that you should really be that throwing up that amount on which you can afford to lose as always and never comes into such extent that you would be going all in with your bets. If you do really want to prove out your curiosity if you are really that wanting to know if you are doing good then its not bad to make a bet and find out if you do make out some good analysis. When it comes to luck then its default because we do know that on gambling/betting world then it will always be that significant but since we are talking about sports betting then you would be having that edge or having that better odds on winning if you do really know on what sport you are dealing with or simply analysis is significant or helpful on which in comparing when you do deal up with casino games then it would really be that an another story.  Confidence is a dangerous thing? If that certain thing will be the reason that you do make out some all in steps then this is what considered to be that very dangerous.

[PX-Z]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Just try it with at least three more games, placing bets with an amount you can afford to lose. If your predictions remain consistent and accurate, then consider increasing your bets. I wouldn’t call it just luck, because you can actually make informed guesses based on the probability of sports games or matches using the given team statistics.

Good luck and let us know the results!

[Salahmu]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

If you are predicting without gambling you are partially a gambler because changing your mind to gamble is at your fingertips, but however is a serious determination to have been predicting games that was actually wining without having the urge to play any because that's were must people get connected to gambling, by the time people won from there analysis they would feel they are supposed to be the first to win from it before any other person. However note that being able to predict twice only means that you are still inexperienced and a beginner in gambling compare to someone who has done more than 200 predictions and won 50 but consider themselves as a learner. Starting gambling now is your decision but be ready for inaccurate predictions. However if you would want to be certain of your prediction skills, give yourself everyday prediction for two months or three then you find out the kind of analyzer you are.

[Fortify]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

This is true, the brain is always looking for patterns and potentially extrapolating them based on very small amounts of evidence. It's possible to win a heads/tails coin flip five times in a row, but nobody sensible would assume that they could predict the outcome for every future coin flip - you generally have a 50/50 chance of being correct for each flip. Someone who thinks they have an edge in a certain field would do best to create a log of their betting and if your advantage stays true over a long time, with hundreds of attempts, you might be on to something. You'd do best to remember that the bookmakers can change their algorithms which might break you strategy at any time.

[rachael9385]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

You could actually be good at predicting games but don't get carried away by that, too much confidence can lead to disaster. It's just like a gambler that's having constant winning streaks, it's possible for the gambler to start thinking that he or she has a winning strategy that can always work, after a while they'll realize that they have just been lucky. In case you think of actually starting to stake on your predictions make sure that your stakes are moderate, it's not always about your analysis, you can do all that and still lose the bet.

[r_victory]

Confidence is a good thing. Lack of prudence is dangerous. Don't do anything you don't feel confident about doing, and accept the outcome, whatever it may be. After all, you need to believe in your predictions, otherwise, why take the risk?

[leonair]

Confident is not always dangerous. Confidence often helps a person to do great things. Without confidence in you, you will procrastinate in most tasks.  Because when you don't have confidence you will be mentally weak and mental weakness never leads anyone to success. However, one's confidant does not work well in gambling. Because it depends on luck. And no one can ever change his destiny with a confidence. Gambling can be enjoyed with confidence which can add to the fun but gambling can never be won with confidence. so confidence is dangerous for gambling, I agree on that but not for others sectors

[danherbias07]

It's normal to feel that way, but I would suggest placing bets for 10 events. See if you can get 6/10 or better than that. That's when you can think that you are really good at what you are doing and not just from 2 times of predicting it right. You could be on a lucky streak, but that doesn't mean you can do it perfectly. Test it with money involved, that's not a problem. But be sure that you are not using way too much, just an amount that you can afford to lose just in case you get it wrong.
It's like testing the waters for the meantime and then you will do it more as you progress. Still, you may want to limit the overconfidence because that's when it mostly gets wrong.