confidence is a dangerous thing

[sompitonov]

The thing is that you can't connect past successful predictions with those that will happen in the future. Because absolutely no one knows what awaits you around the corner, it can become the longest winning streak, or on the contrary, it can become the most losing streak. Your confidence is just an illusion of deception. Only one thing is important, bet money and check your predictions with money, if you do not do it with real money, then your predictions are worth absolutely nothing. Sometimes if I am confident in a prediction, then I will definitely bet on it, because I understand that if I do not do it and it comes true, then I will regret it for a very long time.

[lovesmayfamilis]

I often remember this expression that sounds: like it is good to be confident in some things, but it is scary and very bad to be self-confident. We are living people, and everything can always happen one day, completely independent of our forecasts and expectations. Even the most beloved and studied team in all respects can lose, or you, being in a depressed mood, or maybe in an excited mood, can make a mistake completely unexpectedly. Emotions always play and will play a big role in people's lives. We must be able to listen to them and react correctly if we cannot periodically do everything right. Experience grows from the fact that we learn and grow, and the more lessons we go through, the more successful and confident we will be in life.

[Reatim]

I wouldn't get too cocky over calling 2 correct results. Maybe you chose huge favorites?

the other one is a favorite i will admit but it was still not a straightforward prediction to be honest because there were better competitors than him even if the athlete i predicted to win was quite talented on his own

the other prediction was a total shot in the moon but i was so surprised it happened which is why i said that maybe optimism brought me there it definitely still keeps my head in the clouds i am not gonna lie

[rodskee]

The thing is that you can't connect past successful predictions with those that will happen in the future.

we really can't connect anything to the future because no matter what we do no one is able to predict the future but the best we can do is use history to try and predict what can happen the future

like they say, history is bound to repeat itself and humans have always stuck by that saying

Only one thing is important, bet money and check your predictions with money, if you do not do it with real money, then your predictions are worth absolutely nothing.

if you do not put any real money you will always be thinking of what if's so it is better to just get things over with because you might always think that you can become a millionaire or something by betting and you will surely be humbled

[summonerrk]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

When I was into betting, I made conclusions about my bets based on: What were the results of previous meetings with other teams, as well as the places where the match would take place, Based on this, I created some correction coefficients that helped me more accurately predict the results of the future match.
When I gained experience, after some time, I became very confident. And based on this, it seemed to me that I could already predict the match very accurately and on one not very lucky day. I put almost my entire deposit on one bet, where the odds were all very attractive. After that, I lost.

[banana33]

Yes confidence is indeed a dangerous thing when it comes to gambling because confident can make a gambler to put in all his life into a single game with the hope that the game will play . confidence will make a gambler to see gambling as not being a game of luck  but of much experience and skills.so to me having confidence while gambling is not just dangerous but detrimental to ones health because of the physiological effect that comes with losing one's more and also being disappointed.gambling is a game of luck and gambler's should always stake with what they can afford to lose and not to put confidence in any game for them not to be tempted into staking more than what they can afford to lose.

but then confidence in what, gambling must be something that is done with caution and for fun, whoever puts the lives of his family in danger to play bets is stupid and does not realize it, we all play here but doing it with caution is what makes the difference

[arwin100]

Yes confidence is indeed a dangerous thing when it comes to gambling because confident can make a gambler to put in all his life into a single game with the hope that the game will play . confidence will make a gambler to see gambling as not being a game of luck  but of much experience and skills.so to me having confidence while gambling is not just dangerous but detrimental to ones health because of the physiological effect that comes with losing one's more and also being disappointed.gambling is a game of luck and gambler's should always stake with what they can afford to lose and not to put confidence in any game for them not to be tempted into staking more than what they can afford to lose.

but then confidence in what, gambling must be something that is done with caution and for fun, whoever puts the lives of his family in danger to play bets is stupid and does not realize it, we all play here but doing it with caution is what makes the difference

But sometimes it deceive you and that will make you do crazy decision. Many people fall for the trap like thinking about they are winning but it end up for thing losing at then left out without getting anything.

That's why trust your intuition because this attitude would help us realize that we are dealing to much on this risky activity and provably we could decide to quit once everything is excessive or we can sense that there's no point to continue especially for playing those risky gambling games.

[Mpamaegbu]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

The "I now feel drunk in power" part reminds me of my early days of demo trading when I would make encouraging wins and profits. It got to me like I've mastered the act of trading. It looked like I could easily jump in and make few bucks and then exit trades without much hassles. It was that way in my head until I came into live trading. Like the proverbial frog, I soon discovered it the hard way that there were two types of water – cold water and hot water.

OP, you might be winning now because nothing is at stake. I'm sure once there's a financial commitment on the bet, your mindset will change also. Fear and greed will set in

[Ricardo11]

Yes confidence is indeed a dangerous thing when it comes to gambling because confident can make a gambler to put in all his life into a single game with the hope that the game will play . confidence will make a gambler to see gambling as not being a game of luck  but of much experience and skills.so to me having confidence while gambling is not just dangerous but detrimental to ones health because of the physiological effect that comes with losing one's more and also being disappointed.gambling is a game of luck and gambler's should always stake with what they can afford to lose and not to put confidence in any game for them not to be tempted into staking more than what they can afford to lose.

but then confidence in what, gambling must be something that is done with caution and for fun, whoever puts the lives of his family in danger to play bets is stupid and does not realize it, we all play here but doing it with caution is what makes the difference

But sometimes it deceive you and that will make you do crazy decision. Many people fall for the trap like thinking about they are winning but it end up for thing losing at then left out without getting anything.

That's why trust your intuition because this attitude would help us realize that we are dealing to much on this risky activity and provably we could decide to quit once everything is excessive or we can sense that there's no point to continue especially for playing those risky gambling games.

Everyone has the feeling and desire to win, but sometimes expecting too much will lead the gambler to despair. When someone expects too much to win, he is willing to take more risks than he can afford, but he does not think about the losses. Due to the false feeling of winning, the gambler does not think about reality, and is forced to take bigger risks again and again, but each time he loses and his losses increase.
Therefore, it is very important to maintain self-control, those who cannot control their greed and emotions, they can never keep themselves away from disaster, and this is proven in reality.

[hedgeh0g]

Everyone has the feeling and desire to win, but sometimes expecting too much will lead the gambler to despair. When someone expects too much to win, he is willing to take more risks than he can afford, but he does not think about the losses. Due to the false feeling of winning, the gambler does not think about reality, and is forced to take bigger risks again and again, but each time he loses and his losses increase.
Therefore, it is very important to maintain self-control, those who cannot control their greed and emotions, they can never keep themselves away from disaster, and this is proven in reality.

The big problem is that many players refuse to understand that they have an addiction, because their confidence in success is above everything else. They never want to think about losing, so most often this happens in practice, when they arrange a test on their wallet and money. And only after they lose this money, they begin to think a little, and even then not always. Some players continue to play, thinking that if I was so unlucky, then next time I will definitely be lucky and repeat the same actions again. It looks like the same circle, but at one point it can stop because the player will no longer have anywhere to get money from.

[Albarq]

The big problem is that many players refuse to understand that they have an addiction, because their confidence in success is above everything else. They never want to think about losing, so most often this happens in practice, when they arrange a test on their wallet and money. And only after they lose this money, they begin to think a little, and even then not always. Some players continue to play, thinking that if I was so unlucky, then next time I will definitely be lucky and repeat the same actions again. It looks like the same circle, but at one point it can stop because the player will no longer have anywhere to get money from.

of course it becomes a thought for the players, and demands themselves to achieve glory by continuing to be enthusiastic even though the physical becomes more drained and it will continue for an unspecified time, and money is their end point in achievement but it is something difficult with a lot of thoughts there, sometimes the goal of success makes players try harder because there will be brightness for the future.

[Solosanz]

I think you're just lucky.

Why do you not try to record all of your predictions with and without betting? then we all can see is it really true or not.

If it was true, then it means you have a character that not able to perform under pressure, although this also happens to other people too. I'm not sure if this is possible or make sense, but you should try to fake yourself while betting, think like you didn't bet even though you will bet.

[Strongkored]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

You should try it because being smart in predictions but never betting officially does not give any results. Whether it's just luck or not, can only be proven by betting, but you should know that being able to successfully predict in several bets is not a reference that you are smart, because you will definitely experience what is called losing and the important thing is that overall it remains profitable, because it is impossible to always win just as it is impossible to always lose.

[Pandu Geddon]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

If you have the funds and the interest to risk your money, why don't you try betting on your predictions? It can be done easily but don't be too excited. When you bet your money, then you must be prepared to lose.
In gambling there is also a risk of addiction, you can learn how to avoid addiction and you will be strong enough not to be tempted. And what you need to know also, there will be no absolute victory in gambling even though you have predictions that you consider accurate. There are times when you will receive a series of defeats that bother you.

[btc78]

You should try it because being smart in predictions but never betting officially does not give any results. Whether it's just luck or not, can only be proven by betting, but you should know that being able to successfully predict in several bets is not a reference that you are smart, because you will definitely experience what is called losing and the important thing is that overall it remains profitable, because it is impossible to always win just as it is impossible to always lose.

once is by chance, twice is coincidence and thrice is a pattern so maybe try to bet for another time and see if it works out the third time before you decide whether you may actually be good at predicting things or not

when you decide to bet with money though don’t expect to win right away and win constantly after that you can lose but maybe if you keep doing what you have always been doing for the past correct predictions then you can win

also predicting on your head and actually making a bet on a casino with bookmakers and odds involved would be a lot different

[Patikno]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Basically, all types of gambling that we do are very influenced by the luck factor, so I personally think that you are lucky. Maybe the analysis we do can be a reference for predictions to get a win, but for accuracy no one can do it continuously. Therefore, I conclude that gambling with excessive confidence is not allowed, it is better to keep doing limits especially in the allocation for gambling, so that we do not fall into deep disappointment when gambling, and if that happens then there are so many risks that will occur, and the worst is falling into addiction or a desire to avenge defeat. Even if you still want to continue betting, then you should limit your allocation and be willing to accept the losses that may occur, because basically a responsible gambler is one who is ready to accept risks and does not easily fall into emotions when gambling.

[Yucky]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

No matter how good your previous predictions have been, it's still a 50/50 chance. You can make this prediction and it will be perfect, just like the previous one, or it won't. But you'll never know unless you try.

If you can't kill the curiosity to try, then give it a try, just to shut that curiosity once and for all. But use an amount that's not too much for you, a budgeted amount, and keep testing the waters.

Sometimes, you just have to try things out to know for yourself. You can't keep guessing, you can't keep asking. And yes, overconfidence can be dangerous, making you feel like you've got it all covered, until you find out that you don't. But regardless, try with a small amount.

[GxSTxV]

I have seen this with a friend before, once he won a significant amount from a combined bet with over 10 matches all of them were correct. He gained a great confidence of himself and started to share his bets with us and giving promises that it's going to turn as a win. However, it wasn't the case and he suffered losing all the profits, even made more deposits. What happened is he got one time lucky, he thought that he is too good or found a holygrail to beat the casino.

Confidence can be a weapon for you or against you. Sometimes, you need confidence to make that bet and win. Other times, it's dangerous if you lose control just like what happened to my friend.

[Iranus]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

It is true that to win in gambling, you need to be lucky. However, in sports gambling, along with good luck, experience and good analytical skills are important. Then we can be successful. If we can analyze correctly, we can win most of the bets. However, many times the favorite teams lose. However, if we are experienced enough, we can avoid most of the losses in sports gambling. So I would say that you did not win only because of good luck. You were able to analyze the matches correctly, your skills are good, this is also one of the reasons for your victory.

[Hewlet]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

Whatever your mind is made up to do, there's nothing wrong about giving it a shot but just be ready for whatever result you get from it at the end. Gambling is a choice and having the ability to make good analysis is what gives one an edge to at least have a sense of control over his gambling wins so it is not just something you are depending on mere luck. However, overconfidence could be a huge problem that if not properly managed can ruin you as a gambler. even as a starter, do assume you know it all even though you must have tried some tactics without using actual money on it, there's a big difference between making a prediction when money is not involved and doing the same when money is involved. at least, starting little till you ascertain how effective the strategy works in real life is a good point to start.