confidence is a dangerous thing

[tread93]

uhhh yeahhhh, duh! lol. If you're feeling confident and you've already made two picks that could have been winners everybody knows that the third time is always the charm! Eh? Or was that just me that paid attention in gambling school? ;P.

Where is this gambling school so I can enroll?

Also isn't the saying that third time's the charm applies if you have been losing and people will encourage you to try again for the third time to see if things will finally turn around for you. In OP's case, they have been lucky enough for two tries already. Will the third time repeat the previous two successes? Who knows? It could be the end of a streak.

Why not man? I mean seriously what have you got to lose?

Well, money! But this is why OP should just go for a small amount so that it is not big of a loss. If he does lose

Haha I was only kidding about the gambling school. I just feel like if you've got two in a row then you've got good odds to hit on the 3rd try in a sports betting type of scenario. But of course he could still lose the money. Hopefully he won't bet more then he has to lose if he does go for it after all. I mean eventually he probably will place a bet on it one day, even if it's not right away.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Overconfidence would make the gambler think it's his right to keep winning no matter what and his sudden switch to loosing streak might seem to him as abnormal and he'll strive to get back to winning streaks, maybe to no avail and from overconfidence it enters desperation, furthermore to depression and a new helpless addict is formed.

Well, I start from something: if we have confidence, things will turn out better for us , Considering that there are sports bets, and even with our confidence  , if we lose, it's something we must accept with humility and that's it , There's nothing worse than indecision and lack of confidence, because it will never bring good things.

I think that when you, as a person, know what you're facing, confidence will get you out of a bad situation faster, whether it's in casinos or even sports betting.

[Zigabel]

You get it right by luck for the first time does not mean you will have the same experience continually, this is gambling for you, maybe what happened to you after this was overconfidence, which anyone of us can also fall a victim if we don't pay attention to the game we play and how gambling works in general perspective, some may because of these try to put in huge amount of money as stake to later discover they missed it and lose.

Greed is the major reason one will be willing to risk huge amounts just to be able get even bigger returns meanwhile they could have rather go with a reasonable amount such that it becomes sustainable with multiple trials even when the whole thing is mostly luck dependent.  With lucky you may get first two or three trials right and then you begin to feel so much like you have gotten just the best strategy only to start loosing such that if you don't have a money management strategy,  you may not stay long in the game before you loose everything including that which you have made as profit much earlier.

[Shadiq]

Maybe you are good at analysis or you may be lucky. If you understand the games well and have deep knowledge about the games then I would say you are good at analysis. But if you win by analyzing the games after reading the media and some articles then I would say you are lucky. Because if you do not understand the games or are not experienced in the games, proper analysis is not possible. Because the situation of the matches is not always the same.

Whether you are a good analyst or lucky, if you can be disciplined in betting then betting can be positive for you. If you cannot control your emotions then betting will almost certainly bring something negative for you.

[Awaklara]

Greed is the major reason one will be willing to risk huge amounts just to be able get even bigger returns meanwhile they could have rather go with a reasonable amount such that it becomes sustainable with multiple trials even when the whole thing is mostly luck dependent.  With lucky you may get first two or three trials right and then you begin to feel so much like you have gotten just the best strategy only to start loosing such that if you don't have a money management strategy,  you may not stay long in the game before you loose everything including that which you have made as profit much earlier.

I don't think gamblers who bet big to get big wins are greedy. Gamblers see opportunities and they take risks. That's not greed.
It's different if a gambler has already gotten a big win that is satisfying, but chooses to continue the game to get an even bigger win rather than exiting the game and enjoying his winnings. I think that's more of a greedy gambler.
Gamblers who take risks still have to go through calculations. At least they consider the odds and also the amount of bets they can make.

[gunhell16]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

You know, op, that's no different from the majority of gamblers who are losers and only a few or rarely win often. The same goes for the predictions we make or do.
If there are times when our predictions are right, just think of it as luck, where luck is we don't know when it will happen to us.

It's hard to trust the predictions we make because maybe later on, because you're so confident that your prediction is right, you'll suddenly go broke in the end, which can cause you stress that could lead you to depression if you lose a large amount. So be careful of course or play at your own risk as a gambler.

[Lannakosa]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

You won't know if you don't try, it seems to me that a player should a priori make a bet only when he is sure. In other cases, when there are doubts, it is better to refuse the bet, even if it turns out that you were right, it is better to skip the bet where there are doubts. Even if you are a good bettor and you will have a big series of victories, this does not mean that you cannot have a series of several defeats in a row and you can even be sure of your bets, gambling is always a risk.

[leonair]

Greed is the major reason one will be willing to risk huge amounts just to be able get even bigger returns meanwhile they could have rather go with a reasonable amount such that it becomes sustainable with multiple trials even when the whole thing is mostly luck dependent.  With lucky you may get first two or three trials right and then you begin to feel so much like you have gotten just the best strategy only to start loosing such that if you don't have a money management strategy,  you may not stay long in the game before you loose everything including that which you have made as profit much earlier.

I don't think gamblers who bet big to get big wins are greedy. Gamblers see opportunities and they take risks. That's not greed.
It's different if a gambler has already gotten a big win that is satisfying, but chooses to continue the game to get an even bigger win rather than exiting the game and enjoying his winnings. I think that's more of a greedy gambler.
Gamblers who take risks still have to go through calculations. At least they consider the odds and also the amount of bets they can make.

Even after losing repeatedly in gambling, one who continues to test one's luck or place big bets in the hope of winning something big is definitely called greed. If you predict an opportunity and bet big money on it in order to win something big, isn't that greed? You will never get a winning guarantee in gambling. And if you lose, you will lose the entire amount you bet. So isn't it greed to bet money at high risk? I think gambling itself is a greed. That is why if someone gambles regularly, he cannot give up gambling easily. Because his regular gambling activity makes him very greedy.

[Slow death]

I think that when you, as a person, know what you're facing, confidence will get you out of a bad situation faster, whether it's in casinos or even sports betting.

In sports betting, when a person invests their feelings, they get some games right, they start to feel very confident that they can get all the games right, which is why they make bad decisions, like putting a lot of money on a bet thinking they won't make a mistake. In these cases, people even put money they can't afford to lose.

For example:

A person puts $1 on a game and gets it right. On this first bet, the person is still afraid of betting, but decides to bet again and gets it right. Then, the person starts to think they won't lose. That's why they'll put a lot of money in, borrow money or sell some asset and bet. When they lose, they can commit suicide. I've seen many cases like this here in my country.

[Rabata]

You get it right by luck for the first time does not mean you will have the same experience continually, this is gambling for you, maybe what happened to you after this was overconfidence, which anyone of us can also fall a victim if we don't pay attention to the game we play and how gambling works in general perspective, some may because of these try to put in huge amount of money as stake to later discover they missed it and lose.

Greed is the major reason one will be willing to risk huge amounts just to be able get even bigger returns meanwhile they could have rather go with a reasonable amount such that it becomes sustainable with multiple trials even when the whole thing is mostly luck dependent.  With lucky you may get first two or three trials right and then you begin to feel so much like you have gotten just the best strategy only to start loosing such that if you don't have a money management strategy,  you may not stay long in the game before you loose everything including that which you have made as profit much earlier.

When a gambler shows too much confidence in gambling, that confidence will manifest in the form of greed. It is certainly good to have confidence in betting because if you have confidence, you can bet without any doubt. But sometimes this confidence becomes one of the reasons for loss. Although luck is an important factor in gambling, those who are overconfident do not want to trust that luck. They think that what they are doing will happen. But when the reality is different, they only regret it.

In the case of betting, if you lower your expectations, it is definitely possible to get good results. In gambling, you must control your greed, otherwise it will be difficult to take the right decision. A gambler who control their greed he can do better in gambling.

[swogerino]

I think that when you, as a person, know what you're facing, confidence will get you out of a bad situation faster, whether it's in casinos or even sports betting.

In sports betting, when a person invests their feelings, they get some games right, they start to feel very confident that they can get all the games right, which is why they make bad decisions, like putting a lot of money on a bet thinking they won't make a mistake. In these cases, people even put money they can't afford to lose.

For example:

A person puts $1 on a game and gets it right. On this first bet, the person is still afraid of betting, but decides to bet again and gets it right. Then, the person starts to think they won't lose. That's why they'll put a lot of money in, borrow money or sell some asset and bet. When they lose, they can commit suicide. I've seen many cases like this here in my country.

Confidence and gambling does not fit well in the same sentence yet I agree with you, confidence is a total destroyer for anyone playing as confidence is build upon dreams one may have and as such you are not thinking that clearly, this obscures further when someone is excited because he has found a few games right before playing again. This is a dangerous case and people should treat this with caution yet no one does, the only good thing is that in sport betting rarely we see extremely addicted persons from gambling so at least sport betting does not make the same harm as playing slot machines can do.

[Wonder Work]

I don't think gamblers who bet big to get big wins are greedy. Gamblers see opportunities and they take risks. That's not greed.

The reasons for greed can be seen in many ways, but those who make big bets in this casino and lose repeatedly cannot be considered greedy because those who play the game make big bets only when they understand the situation and can take risks. Some win big bets but still do not calm down, and later, it is seen that they have lost all their money while making big bets again. That is why greed cannot be allowed to come; you have to take risks consciously. Moreover, if you go towards it greedily, there is a high possibility of losing money.

[Pi$$]

Because if you do not understand the games or are not experienced in the games, proper analysis is not possible. Because the situation of the matches is not always the same.

there is usually a level of experience that comes with being familiar with the sports and being someone that has been a frequent gambler. such experience doesn't come by just reading through sports journal or getting insight from punters. everyone makes his analysis based on his level of experience. because of how experienced some punters assume themselves to be, they might make a dangerous prediction that might almost be too hard to be true. you can only be confident o what you have a control of, gambling is a game of luck, confidence or overconfidence does not work with it.

[Su-asa]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

I don't seem to understand you clearly but if you have been making your predictions in the sport game which you didn't mention, and you have not yet make any bet with your real money yet. IMO two things are involve already. Which is, you might be good at it or you might be lucky on your predictions. But you shouldn't feel too excited to wager what you can not afford to lose on the game any time you are ready to stake your money on it.

[Agbe]

I think you are only lucky From what you are explaining here because if you say that you have been only able to get two accurate results right then to me you're not yet ready for you to be putting your money in where your mouth is, gambling is one thing that is a serious matter that involves money so you have to be mentally prepared to face what ever thing that you will face and that includes preparing your minds for accepting losses which is one integral part of gambling that I have seen so apart from you been confident when it comes to gambling you have to know that gambling is a serious matter that is beyond only having confidence

[Odusko]

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

I don't seem to understand you clearly but if you have been making your predictions in the sport game which you didn't mention, and you have not yet make any bet with your real money yet. IMO two things are involve already. Which is, you might be good at it or you might be lucky on your predictions. But you shouldn't feel too excited to wager what you can not afford to lose on the game any time you are ready to stake your money on it.

Cases like this happen to wake us up to responsible gambling because the ops sounds as if he is about to start gambling irresponsibly and that will not go well in the long run, what is most important in gambling is the ability to control when and how we gamble and that has to do with the amount of time and money we spend in gambling, the ops sound as if he will blow up his previous winning and going in a direction of chasing his winning which eventually will lead him into lost at the end.

[ChiBitCTy]

i have been making predictions about this one sport but not really turning my predictions into bets officially meaning i have yet to actually put money on where my mouth is

anyway in this sport i have been following, i have made two claims that ended up being true i wouldn't say that it is straightforward so even i am surprised with how accurate my predictions were when my basis were honestly a lot of optimism and trust to the athletes to be motivated enough to perform well after previous horrible results

anyway because my predictions have been correct i now feel drunk in power and i feel like i could get another prediction right for the next sporting event i am considering whether i should try and officially bet on it? am i actually good at analyzing things or have i just been lucky?

I don't equate confidence and arrogance as the same thing.  It's one thing to be arrogant, which in gambling means a whole other thing.  This would mean that one is OVERLY-confident, might underestimate their opponent, likely not thinking clearly because they are maybe overanalyzing thing or over estimating etc etc.  Confidence can be a big part of what makes a gambler good at what they do.  If you aren't, you're unlikely to ever be good at it.

[Zoomic]

Confidence isn't a dangerous thing; gambling is just so unpredictable. Especially in sports betting, you can have all the knowledge you need to analyze a particular match. You might be well-informed about the past records of the teams involved and the players, but a very small, insignificant event during the match can ruin the bet. This is what makes gambling interesting.

There are days when our confidence has worked perfectly for us, and there are days when circumstances beyond our control make us lose, even with our high level of confidence. Every gambler still needs some level of confidence. We should also not confuse our own personal biases with confidence, as this could be another reason why we fail

[death69]

Like the rest of us have been, are, and will be, you are drunk on variance rather than power. Self-confidence? Dangerous? Of course. But necessary. The problem isn't confidence, it’s mistaking short-term correctness for long-term edge. Two hits . Two hits is hardly nothing. Two hits is noise. Two hits is noise that feels like signal.

What you’re really asking isn’t whether you’re good. You want to know whether you could trust yourself. The truth is, nobody knows. Not you, not me, not even the most sharpest chance odds-makersin the room. What matters is whether you can create a structure based on two lucky calls that isn't driven by dopamine surges. Do you formalize it? Build a framework? Or do you ride blind into the next event hoping to high-five chance again?

[Koadharber]

Confidence isn't a dangerous thing; gambling is just so unpredictable. Especially in sports betting, you can have all the knowledge you need to analyze a particular match. You might be well-informed about the past records of the teams involved and the players, but a very small, insignificant event during the match can ruin the bet. This is what makes gambling interesting.

There are days when our confidence has worked perfectly for us, and there are days when circumstances beyond our control make us lose, even with our high level of confidence. Every gambler still needs some level of confidence. We should also not confuse our own personal biases with confidence, as this could be another reason why we fail

Or lets say that there's no such thing about that 100% winning chance when it comes to gambling or betting on which its true that no matter whether you are drunk or not but still it wont really be giving out that kind of chance or giving out that kind of assurance that you would really be able to win up a particular bet. The only thing differs on here is that when you do really that having that confidence is that you cant be able to do necessary analysis on which it will really be that needed when we do speak about that sports betting or something which is really that this is significant. There are really just that those conditions on which you would really be that having that sure thing kind of choices on which there are moments such as this.

Its true that on the moment that you would really be experiencing up those loses then you would really be that eventually be able to have that kind of  realizations at the end specially if you do saw that you are already that losing up that much. You will be able to find out on how you do took up those loses just because of just that not applying the realistic approach.