“Trump’s Playbook: Crash Stocks, Pump Bonds, Force Rate Cuts?”

[Helex]

Donald Trump may have a strategic reason for wanting to crash the stock market—specifically, to drive down bond yields, making it cheaper for the U.S. government to refinance its massive debt burden. Here’s a breakdown of the idea:

1. The $7 Trillion Refinancing Problem
 • The U.S. government needs to refinance $7 trillion of debt in the next six months.
 • Current 10-year Treasury yields are high (above 4%), making refinancing expensive for the government.
 • If yields stay high, the government would have to pay much higher interest on new debt, worsening the deficit.

2. Trump’s Alleged Strategy: Crash Stocks, Pump Bonds
 • A stock market crash increases demand for U.S. Treasuries because investors seek safe-haven assets.
 • Higher demand for bonds pushes bond prices up and yields down (bond prices and yields move inversely).
 • Lower yields make it cheaper for the government to refinance debt at lower interest rates.

3. How This Forces the Fed to Cut Rates
 • If bond yields drop significantly, it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
 • Rate cuts are bullish for risk-on assets like stocks, crypto, and real estate.
 • This could lead to another market rally after the initial stock drop.

4. Long-Term Play: Don’t Panic
 • The short-term market drop may look bad initially, but if this theory plays out, it will set up a bullish scenario later.
 • Once yields drop and rate cuts come in, risk assets will likely rebound hard.

Key Takeaway
 • If this theory is correct, Trump’s goal is not to kill the market, but to reset bond yields lower to help the U.S. refinance its debt.
 • Smart investors should think long-term and use any short-term panic as a potential buying opportunity.

[franky1]

if there are too many bonds in the market. the only way to tempt the market is to offer higher interest bonds..
if there is demand for limited supply bonds. the government can offer bonds with lower rates and people would take it

so if they can create demand they can offer lower interest bonds to replace expiring existing bonds and slowly dispose of the higher rate bonds

trump however is also trying to save on treasury budget to not need to even release new bonds ontop of existing supply. because he wants to bring down the debt

the market crash is actually more so his opponents trying to make the markets look bad during his administration so they can say "but he didnt make america great again, he made it worse"