"what if" the bull run delays to 2026 while we're expecting 2025.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

It all depends on whether investors will recognize a moment to decide to allocate large amounts of money into BTC, or the exact opposite will happen. We should not lose sight of the fact that today we have huge amounts of BTC stored in BTC ETFs, and that these same BTC can flow to the open market at any time.

Yes, the large amounts are being held by the Big Dogs, but so long as people still see BTC as a store of value (long term) there is always someone waiting to buy. So the Bitcoin flowing back into the open market doesn't mean people will just shy away from buying it. Yes, the initial days after the dump may move the markets down but over time, there is usually a recovery.

This happens in almost all other markets as well. For example, look it how stocks tried to bounce back after a good number of days of bloodbath.

[Lida93]

Look, going off historical trends seems nice and all, but let's be real - the past doesn't always predict the future, you know?  I mean you've got inflation, geopolitical chaos, and whatever Trump's doing this week. When the worlds on fire like it is now, those so-called historical trends pretty much get tossed out the window. 

So I'm cautiously optimistic, but certainly not betting the farm.  Too much weird sh*t going on right now.

Yea the past can't always predict the future cause I still recall spot bitcoin ETF approval in  early 2024, an event that led to an unprecedented new ATH before the  BTC circle. Such was a good news, bad news too can create it's own unprecedented events cancelling historical trend.

And with the increasing height of geopolitics across borders we have to be open-minded  to the possibility of unprecedent events in the future which can have huge impact therefore distorting historical trend.

[Dunamisx]

Since there is no specific date for the second phase of the bullrun for this season, we may have it plus or minus the proposed year, as we can see, that this year, we expect to have the all time high towards the end of the year, this could come in early than that or later the said date, which also calls more that w should learn to to hold before then, 2026 is not too far, if we can wait form now till the end of the year, then staying to 2026 should never be a big problem.

[Jating]

Since there is no specific date for the second phase of the bullrun for this season, we may have it plus or minus the proposed year, as we can see, that this year, we expect to have the all time high towards the end of the year, this could come in early than that or later the said date, which also calls more that w should learn to to hold before then, 2026 is not too far, if we can wait form now till the end of the year, then staying to 2026 should never be a big problem.

I'm not really sure if there is a second phase or we can call it that way. And also the delays, I mean if there are no bull run this year, then chances are low that in 2026 we will have it because that will be the bearish year already.

And it's obvious that the market is being affected by negative news coming from the US. Maybe when everything has settled down in the last quarter, this bull run will resume and then all the predictions about the price getting into the $150k range will be in fruition. The better question could be how prepared as we in the future? Do you still continue to buy and DCA and accumulate and be ready for what the end of the year will bring to us?

[OgNasty]

A lot of talk about the government buying Bitcoin, eliminating capital gain taxes on crypto, and getting a strong legal framework in place by August. This would coincide with the 4 year cycle top predicted in mid-September perfectly. Don’t count out 2025 yet. There’s still time for plenty of smash buying by governments around the world.

[davis196]

Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

Why so many crypto newbies expect a new ATH every month or several ATHs every year. I remember the days back in 2018-2020 when there weren't such bullish expectations. Patience is the best advisor for every crypto investor. Bitcoin is destined to achieve new ATHs and it doesn't matter if a new ATH occurs by the end of 2025 or in the next year. Trump's mandate will end and his tariff wars will end at some point. Bitcoin will remain strong. The tariff wars will cause some damage to the US economy(and the global economy as well), which might force the Federal Reserve to start decreasing the interest rates at some point. Lower interest rates mean crypto prices going to the moon.

[Lucius]

It all depends on whether investors will recognize a moment to decide to allocate large amounts of money into BTC, or the exact opposite will happen. We should not lose sight of the fact that today we have huge amounts of BTC stored in BTC ETFs, and that these same BTC can flow to the open market at any time.

Yes, the large amounts are being held by the Big Dogs, but so long as people still see BTC as a store of value (long term) there is always someone waiting to buy. So the Bitcoin flowing back into the open market doesn't mean people will just shy away from buying it. Yes, the initial days after the dump may move the markets down but over time, there is usually a recovery.

Supply and demand always play their role, although I will say that the big ones always have an advantage because they mostly invest money that they have in excess or money that they got cheaply - and therefore play for the long term, while small investors mostly gamble with what they don't actually have or need for their daily lives. They are weak hands who panic at every bit of negative news, while big fish are waiting for them and swallow them again and again.

The price of BTC has a big psychological impact on ordinary people, because most of them think that they can't afford it (those who think they have to buy 1 BTC), or they suffer from the paradox of small numbers, so 0.10 BTC doesn't seem like anything to them, and they have to pay $8500 today for it. That's why a lot of them turn to alternatives in the form of altcoins, but in that game only a few have a chance to profit.

This happens in almost all other markets as well. For example, look it how stocks tried to bounce back after a good number of days of bloodbath.

It is much easier for the average investor to lose money on stocks than on BTC, because they believe in big companies and their recovery, and on the other hand, whenever BTC loses 10% or more in value, stories immediately begin about how it is a scam, ponzi or one of the biggest internet scams.

In the end, those who stick to the golden rule "buy when there's blood on the streets" do best.

[henry_of_skalitz]

A lot of talk about the government buying Bitcoin, eliminating capital gain taxes on crypto, and getting a strong legal framework in place by August. This would coincide with the 4 year cycle top predicted in mid-September perfectly. Don’t count out 2025 yet. There’s still time for plenty of smash buying by governments around the world.

Confidence is a strong thing to count on - and we can't tell when such events would unfold for sure, but the adoption never stops, it only halts for some time before going forward.

[Yamifoud]

I can't tell if there is a possibility or not, but what is in my mind is that the marker has never changed; it is still unpredictable. So I won't say your prediction and others made are right or wrong; only the future can tell.

Since we got into the question "what if?". Well, some are happy while some are not, but in the end, people still accept it. However, this never worried me because I was even prepared for whatever happened in the market.

But until I see no changes in the price trend in this 2nd quarter, I am confident that we will be going into a bearish market again.

[YOSHIE]

Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

They spoke above 547 occurred three times Halving and ATH but I thought the global economic situation in 2013, 2017 and 2021 was not the same as now, as far as I know that year some speculations published were almost accurate, at least approached.

But this year's speculation 2025 is crazy just imagine that there has been some Halving Bitcoin just touching the price of $ 109K it takes 16 years to reach ATH $ 109K.
However, if I personally speculate there is no new ATH, we will wait for the next Halving which is estimated to occur in 2027 not in 2026, I believe that.

[wakier]

The fact that it’s beyond our control, so we don’t have other choice but to patiently wait for it. It’s not that history will always repeat itself, there’s no guarantee with that. Sometimes, the market takes new pattern, so we just need to be cautious on our actions so that we won’t be regretting in the end.

Things are actually unpredictable especially that this crypto market is highly volatile. We need to stay patient and hold, and if there’s new opportunity to add more bitcoin, then buy and hold, and then sell when the final bull run is here.

I agree with your opinion we can't control the market to stay the same as the previous cycles because the global economy is currently a bit chaotic and it affects the market both crypto, stocks and forex so we have to be careful if we want to invest now don't get caught in an unclear cycle because as we know ATH BTC occurred before halving and only a few Altcoins experienced an increase and reached a new ATH, I think if you want to invest in Bitcoin it doesn't matter as long as you keep saving it and waiting for BTC to increase again "Hold is a winner"

[bias]

This happens in almost all other markets as well. For example, look it how stocks tried to bounce back after a good number of days of bloodbath.

Sorry, but stock markets have nothing to do with crypto markets for a lot of reasons.

Supply and demand always play their role, although I will say that the big ones always have an advantage because they mostly invest money that they have in excess or money that they got cheaply - and therefore play for the long term, while small investors mostly gamble with what they don't actually have or need for their daily lives. They are weak hands who panic at every bit of negative news, while big fish are waiting for them and swallow them again and again.

Just because small investors don't have the amount of capital for trading, it doesn't necessarily make them have soft hands. IMO, the newcomers who join the crypto market because of the hype and the news that they hear are the ones that leave the train first. The oldest knows that this is something that happening and are trying to get as much as they can.

The price of BTC has a big psychological impact on ordinary people, because most of them think that they can't afford it (those who think they have to buy 1 BTC), or they suffer from the paradox of small numbers, so 0.10 BTC doesn't seem like anything to them, and they have to pay $8500 today for it. That's why a lot of them turn to alternatives in the form of altcoins, but in that game only a few have a chance to profit.

That's one of the biggest truths. I face this first hand among my friend circle, and I still meet people with the same way of thinking. Even if they know that Alts are riskier than BTC, they buy Alts more easily because of their price and the amount that they will see in their portfolio. This is something that won't change fast or easily.

In the end, those who stick to the golden rule "buy when there's blood on the streets" do best.

They'll do even better if they stick another golden (and simpler) rule next to this golden rule. HODL!

Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

Yes, it will, and yes, I expect that to happen. Which year doesn't concern me as long as I accumulate as much as I can every single time that I can.

[Wind_FURY]

Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

If we don't have a strong Bitcoin SURGE from under six digits to over six digits in 2025, then I'm VERY we'll have it in 2026!

Why?

Trump, Scott Bessent, and Stephen Miran has a plan that if Jerome Powell won't turn on the money printer, then they will find another person who will turn it on.

Plus because Bitcoin ALWAYS surges if the money printer is turned on, then Bitcoin is a sort of bet that it will be turned on.

[skarais]

~~~

I agree with your opinion we can't control the market to stay the same as the previous cycles because the global economy is currently a bit chaotic and it affects the market both crypto, stocks and forex so we have to be careful if we want to invest now don't get caught in an unclear cycle because as we know ATH BTC occurred before halving and only a few Altcoins experienced an increase and reached a new ATH, I think if you want to invest in Bitcoin it doesn't matter as long as you keep saving it and waiting for BTC to increase again "Hold is a winner"

Being cautious and hesitant are fundamentally different, but in the investment world you need to eliminate one of them for the sake of your goals. You should never doubt the development of crypto, its good potential in the long term and this is the reason why some big companies buy and continue to accumulate its assets. Being cautious is okay, it is part of risk management, but being hesitant is not.

The risk of investment is always there, the price volatility cannot be eliminated. You can buy at a high price and then accumulate again at a lower price, that is the recommended way so that the average purchase price is lower than before. Crypto activists are increasing in number and many young people have realized the potential, so don't hesitate to invest even though you need to be careful in making decisions.

[Alpha Marine]

The more the ATH delays, the more we have an opportunity to accumulate more bitcoin. What I'm sure of is that Bitcoin will have another ATH this year or the next, and if I'm sure of that, I have to plan towards it, and the only way I can plan is to accumulate as much bitcoin as I can. I don't care what Trump does or doesn't do, Bitcoin doesn't revolve around him.

Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

Yes, I think it would, and I have a strong belief it would happen this year and not next year. This is just the 4th month of the year, there are 8 more months to go this year, and we both know a lot can happen in 8 months, especially when bitcoin is concerned.  However, if we don't get it this year, I would still expect it next year.

[milewilda]

I can't tell if there is a possibility or not, but what is in my mind is that the marker has never changed; it is still unpredictable. So I won't say your prediction and others made are right or wrong; only the future can tell.

Since we got into the question "what if?". Well, some are happy while some are not, but in the end, people still accept it. However, this never worried me because I was even prepared for whatever happened in the market.

But until I see no changes in the price trend in this 2nd quarter, I am confident that we will be going into a bearish market again.

We are still approaching on mid year on which means that we are still far for this year to be over. There are those projections that it might happen on Q3 but we dont know if it would be delayed on Q4 or even on Q1 of 2026. No one really knows on what actually this market would be taking into. The important stuff on here is that we do really know that this market cant really be that predicted no matter what we do on which its normal that there might be some unexpected changes if we do speak about derailing up its usual cycle. If it happens that bull run would happen on 2026 then so be it, but assuming that its been delayed then people might be thinking off that the bull run might be over on which it is on the time that Bitcoins price do hit up on $109k on which these are pretty sure the common words that goes out into most people mouth about Bitcoin is over and wont be having any chance to go up even more. Just like on what some people been saying on here is that people are being just that too impatient. They do just that totally change of hearts at the time or moment that they've seen that Bitcoin isnt making that huge move or simply that having that moving sideways. Instead on freaking out or having that stressful mind about the upcoming bull run exact date. Why cant just people wont be able to sit still and do make out some accumulation since the price is still not that shooting up into the stars? They will be starting out to make accumulation at the moment that its already up on 100+k+ level and this is where they will be starting out to have those regrets that they should have done it earlier when the market was still low.

[Wind_FURY]

The more the ATH delays, the more we have an opportunity to accumulate more bitcoin. What I'm sure of is that Bitcoin will have another ATH this year or the next, and if I'm sure of that, I have to plan towards it, and the only way I can plan is to accumulate as much bitcoin as I can. I don't care what Trump does or doesn't do, Bitcoin doesn't revolve around him.

 👍

You, ser, have the RIGHT attitude for the current situation. I read posts about people blaming Trump's tariffs, or other "reasons", but what I RARELY see is an attitude like yours.

We should always remember that we are mere PLEBS. The more Bitcoin stays at a discounted/lower price level, that's more time for people like us who have not completed their accumulation journey to purchase MORE units of Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat.

[Ishicryptic]

Look, going off historical trends seems nice and all, but let's be real - the past doesn't always predict the future, you know?  I mean you've got inflation, geopolitical chaos, and whatever Trump's doing this week. When the worlds on fire like it is now, those so-called historical trends pretty much get tossed out the window. 

So I'm cautiously optimistic, but certainly not betting the farm.  Too much weird sh*t going on right now.

Most of us rely on former Bitcoin historical patterns to speculate what it's price should be in this circle but I think that it is not realistic, anything can happen because the trends and global economic situations are different now. I think that it is best to be optimistic that we are still in the bull run because nobody knows for certain what Bitcoin price will be on the short or long term. I want to believe that we can see a new ATH before the last quarter of this 2025, but if it spills into 2026 it will still be better than entering an early bear run. If you believe that we are going to experience new ATH in this circle, you should accumulate more to take some profits if price skyrockets past the current ATH.

[Wind_FURY]

Look, going off historical trends seems nice and all, but let's be real - the past doesn't always predict the future, you know?  I mean you've got inflation, geopolitical chaos, and whatever Trump's doing this week. When the worlds on fire like it is now, those so-called historical trends pretty much get tossed out the window. 

So I'm cautiously optimistic, but certainly not betting the farm.  Too much weird sh*t going on right now.

Most of us rely on former Bitcoin historical patterns to speculate what it's price should be in this circle but I think that it is not realistic, anything can happen because the trends and global economic situations are different now. I think that it is best to be optimistic that we are still in the bull run because nobody knows for certain what Bitcoin price will be on the short or long term. I want to believe that we can see a new ATH before the last quarter of this 2025, but if it spills into 2026 it will still be better than entering an early bear run. If you believe that we are going to experience new ATH in this circle, you should accumulate more to take some profits if price skyrockets past the current ATH.

I believe the term that you truly wanted to use is, "Cycle"? But there are people that are starting to postulate that the "four year cycle", as a whole, has now been currently "broken".

Why?

Because, like you posted, it's caused by current macro-economic conditions, and the Federal Reserve's hesitation to pivot to Q.E./hesitance to turn the money-printer. But that probably will change this year.

[shinratensei_]

I believe the term that you truly wanted to use is, "Cycle"? But there are people that are starting to postulate that the "four year cycle", as a whole, has now been currently "broken".

Why?

Because, like you posted, it's caused by current macro-economic conditions, and the Federal Reserve's hesitation to pivot to Q.E./hesitance to turn the money-printer. But that probably will change this year.

Can agree, macroeconomic changed, so does bitcoin's cycle, there's always possibility that things will change drastically after ETF Bitcoin introduced, now with tariff and the fact that trump is bullish on BTC.
I'm sure even if somehow something like FTX happens again which hopefully NOT, everybody would still try to buy bitcoin because its more popular than ever.

I can feel people actually consider BTC as alternative to stock or even hedge against inflation for real this time. so there's absolutely no guarantee that we will experience like what happened in the past.
however there's hope that maybe it can rhyme the same way.