"what if" the bull run delays to 2026 while we're expecting 2025.

[Hewlet]

Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

One of the reasons why Bitcoin has gotten to where it currently is is that its dynamics can be explained. The direction of the market can also be easily tied down to a real economic situation that might have led to such movement. Economically, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding whether or not we are going to experience a bull market at the end of the year. the tariff and yet to be seen Trump's economic policies are still on the way, and they all will certainly have an impact on the bitcoin price. if the bear market continues this way till the end of the year, I doubt investors will still opt out, but some will rather see it as a good buying opportunity. 2026 is still far away from this point; the way the market is at the point the year draws to an end will be the determining factor that will influence how one walks into next year.

[jcojci]

That will not be a problem if we do not witness a bull run to a new ATH this year and may happen in the next years. Bitcoin give the opportunity to us to accumulate more Bitcoin for months later so we must use that chance to have more Bitcoin. We don't have to think about what Trump will do and stick to our Bitcoin investment.

Trump can make many regulations to prevent Bitcoin increase the price but that will not stay for too long. Bitcoin will not stop because of Trump or others and will increase at the right time. The problem is we don't know when the right time will come.

[bitzizzix]

Don't be too pessimistic because to end 2025 we have to go through 9 months with April currently running which most likely we will not know what will happen in the next few months and no country wants a prolonged global economic problem or whatever.

But I personally don't care about that and what's on my mind is how I can continue to collect more Bitcoin to store in the long term which doesn't really care about the new ATH and I will only do it when the price of Bitcoin is really satisfying for me without a time limit which I don't care whatever happens, because I only believe that Bitcoin in the long term the price will continue to increase.

And I am also still very optimistic that the new ATH will occur before 2025 because even though negative news is more prominent which can influence many people to feel doubtful and panic which can distract or forget a lot of positive news that occurs such as ETFs, large companies and so on which can actually affect Bitcoin's journey in a more positive direction.

[Wind_FURY]

I believe the term that you truly wanted to use is, "Cycle"? But there are people that are starting to postulate that the "four year cycle", as a whole, has now been currently "broken".

Why?

Because, like you posted, it's caused by current macro-economic conditions, and the Federal Reserve's hesitation to pivot to Q.E./hesitance to turn the money-printer. But that probably will change this year.

Can agree, macroeconomic changed, so does bitcoin's cycle, there's always possibility that things will change drastically after ETF Bitcoin introduced, now with tariff and the fact that trump is bullish on BTC.

I'm sure even if somehow something like FTX happens again which hopefully NOT, everybody would still try to buy bitcoin because its more popular than ever.

It has a higher probability for an actual possibility. Because the ETF makes Bitcoin, as a speculative instrument in traditional trading-desks, closer to legacy finance than trading actual Bitcoin in crypto exchanges.

That definitely helped break the four year cycle.

I can feel people actually consider BTC as alternative to stock or even hedge against inflation for real this time. so there's absolutely no guarantee that we will experience like what happened in the past.
however there's hope that maybe it can rhyme the same way.

I'm confused. If you're a "trader" and you believe that Bitcoin has broken out of its four year cycle, then it should not be considered an alternative to the stock market because they will be more closely correlated with each other.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Don't be too pessimistic because to end 2025 we have to go through 9 months with April currently running which most likely we will not know what will happen in the next few months and no country wants a prolonged global economic problem or whatever.

I believe that people who are still in the market until now are very bullish and believe in bitcoin. But that doesn't mean we can be subjective without a backup plan, especially when this is a volatile and unpredictable market. Anything can happen so we must always have a backup plan.

But I personally don't care about that and what's on my mind is how I can continue to collect more Bitcoin to store in the long term which doesn't really care about the new ATH and I will only do it when the price of Bitcoin is really satisfying for me without a time limit which I don't care whatever happens, because I only believe that Bitcoin in the long term the price will continue to increase.

With an asset as volatile and unpredictable as bitcoin, DCA and long-term holding is always the most effective strategy. But because people are too hasty, put too much hope in the 4-year market cycle and believe that it will always repeat itself, and when things get disrupted, they start to feel insecure about what is happening.

And I am also still very optimistic that the new ATH will occur before 2025 because even though negative news is more prominent which can influence many people to feel doubtful and panic which can distract or forget a lot of positive news that occurs such as ETFs, large companies and so on which can actually affect Bitcoin's journey in a more positive direction.

No one wants a bear market this year but like I said and we all know, anything is possible.
I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a bull market this year, and that could be a good thing as I will have the opportunity to accumulate more.

[Questat]

Delays in bitcoin is always possible. Seeing how unpredictable the market is, with the different news and events that affect us positively or negatively, and here comes Trump that even brings confusion with how will bitcoin move, all of these may contribute that the expected bull run this year may not turn into possibility.

History may sometimes repeat or will definitely take the opposite pattern. And that’s beyond our control already. So I think the best thing we can do is to to wait, if bull run happens, then good, but if it’s not, then let’s be optimistic then and look forward for it the following year. I think this kind of spirit a must have for everyone here.

[Stablexcoin]

Since there is no specific date for the second phase of the bullrun for this season, we may have it plus or minus the proposed year, as we can see, that this year, we expect to have the all time high towards the end of the year, this could come in early than that or later the said date, which also calls more that w should learn to to hold before then, 2026 is not too far, if we can wait form now till the end of the year, then staying to 2026 should never be a big problem.

There was never any specific date for bull run to happen, the market has been sustained through repeated cycles and speculations. We speculated too many times for the bull run to begin, actually it doesn't seem like it, nobody knows if the correction has ended, in this cycle the market has abandoned how it used to play, and it's going in another dimension. Meanwhile, i don't expect bull run to extend into 2026, we will witness it in 2025.

[Odusko]

Taking such a long period before we see another bull market after the last one is something that presents both opportunities and frustration to investors, those that have extra cash flows will see the current delays and corrections as opportunities to buy more Bitcoin, while those that bought at the last all-time high will still count theirs loses until that point that Bitcoin records that all-time high again.

[STT]

If the bullish peak is in 2025 I dont think it will be exceptionally higher then the current recorded ATH.   It will be too rushed to be a proper accumulation and top like BTC can get, so lower is what I'd expect.   If BTC peaks in 2026 it could be really high beyond expectations.

Right this moment, BTC is picking itself off the floor and it might take till autumn not to be swaying on its feet once its done that.   A good well conditioned bullish market has all the moving average in a row and a base of support established, we dont have that right now.  It can rise but I'd expect too many doubts for alot of gains, mostly I expect us to retrade prior prices which is still positive and BTC always looks fast strong asset compared to most when its positive.
   89k is fair now if BTC gets back above 50 day average; doing so regularly is part of the larger macro build higher.

[Perfectbaby]

Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

The next question you should asked yourself or ask is that has been historical data changes?
Of course have never seen where bitcoin halving do not occurred at the project year neither had the bull run changes its circle if I may say, no matter any challenges the market will always repeat itself and can never skip the bull run for whatever reason, currently the overall market increase doesn't being controlled by government and price could likely change or bull run might be the that exact month we've been expecting it to likely happened.

[JeffBrad12]

Taking such a long period before we see another bull market after the last one is something that presents both opportunities and frustration to investors, those that have extra cash flows will see the current delays and corrections as opportunities to buy more Bitcoin, while those that bought at the last all-time high will still count theirs loses until that point that Bitcoin records that all-time high again.

Although that's true, at the end of the day it's matter of holding patiently, growth always linear, BTC always outperforms major asset in the market.
There's literally nothing to worry about, previous bullrun cycle ATH holders are already in profit, the people who bought BTC at ATH will also eventually be in profit though it might took long.
The wisest thing to do here is, to not stress too much about current dip, shit happens and apparently it's because economic war, even people in stocks are also sidelined massively.

[Promocodeudo]

This topic was sparked by this very topic by franky1, if you've read his then you can get a clear shot of mine and what it seek to discuss.

If we're to make a poll we'll find out that many persons still anticipating towards a last bull run for this circle before the bears, with expectations projected on or before the end of 2025. And this expectation even after a $109k ATH reached is hinged on historical data of past bitcoin bull run circles.

But base on current realities with the global economy and addition to tarrif wars that have further weakened and distorted the financial market. And with Trump not stopping to amaze us with his economic policies that have rather marred the market than uplift it, and it doesn't seem he's going to stop at anytime with more new policies this year, which we don't know what would be their impact.

Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

First and foremost, we should understand the concept of Bitcoin which is volatility and fluntuation which is part of the Bitcoin market, although Trump decision are not really good for the entire cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) market, we are bitcoiners, though what Trump is doing now is something that calls for a great concern but I believe that the market will recover, this economic war won't continue and even though it does then we should consider buying heavily if we truly has all it takes to do so because we can wake up one morning to hear or see that Trump has reviewed his decision a bit, for me I see this things as a means way to also pave for people to buy more Bitcoin, if we should consider the current market status, the market isn't still doing bad despite it continued fluntuation within $80k to $87k in this past few weeks.

I believe that we might be experiencing a new ATH before or at the end of this year and even though we don't next year is tail there and and thats why we should be making preparation towards any unexpected occurrence at every given time.
The reason I should be optimistic about Bitcoin is that we got a history sorounding Bitcoin existence, let's not forget that volatility has not stop to exist so the ATH will either happen this year or next year so I don't have any thing worry about.

[LogitechMouse]

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Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

I expect that the bull run will repeat itself just like what it did in 2017, and in 2021. Well, I believe that many are expecting it as well. On the flip side, there's still a chance that it will not happen especially now that we are seeing various companies like Blackrock, Metaplanet, and Strategy continuing to accumulate Bitcoin. TBH, it's good to see institutions coming into play and buying Bitcoin, but there's something on my mind saying that it might have some consequences in the future. I hope not though.

Now if the new ATH that we are expecting will not happen this year, and will happen next year, I guess it's safe to say that we are on a supercycle. I mean it's the first time that it will happen because if we will follow the 4-year cycle, we will experience the bear market season by 2026. It's the first time happening if that happens, and TBH, it's kind of exciting how investors will react with it.

[Pandu Geddon]

Although that's true, at the end of the day it's matter of holding patiently, growth always linear, BTC always outperforms major asset in the market.
There's literally nothing to worry about, previous bullrun cycle ATH holders are already in profit, the people who bought BTC at ATH will also eventually be in profit though it might took long.
The wisest thing to do here is, to not stress too much about current dip, shit happens and apparently it's because economic war, even people in stocks are also sidelined massively.

However, there is also a big possibility that the effects of the trade war that occurred also have an impact on Bitcoin holders or Bitcoin traders. I am not sure it will cause a big panic in the Bitcoin market, but the impact on the expected bull delay for this year may be missed until next year. Not a problem for those who really hold for the long term. especially those who are experienced in patiently holding their Bitcoin. It's just that those who just bought at a high price yesterday, may have a little anxiety about the development of the Bitcoin they hold. Those who are just starting out of course need more time to enjoy the benefits of Bitcoin better.

[Wind_FURY]

Delays in bitcoin is always possible. Seeing how unpredictable the market is, with the different news and events that affect us positively or negatively, and here comes Trump that even brings confusion with how will bitcoin move, all of these may contribute that the expected bull run this year may not turn into possibility.

History may sometimes repeat or will definitely take the opposite pattern. And that’s beyond our control already. So I think the best thing we can do is to to wait, if bull run happens, then good, but if it’s not, then let’s be optimistic then and look forward for it the following year. I think this kind of spirit a must have for everyone here.

The "delay", or the longer periods when the market doesn't surge, was made possible by Quantitative Easing, and the reduction of liquidity in markets caused by high interest rates. The reason is NOT actually because the market is "unpredictable", or other such reasons like market psychology or periods of market inefficiency. Although market psychology and inefficiency do happen, which causes volatility, but it's market liquidity that's attributed to the long-term price movement/surge.

If the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks start printing money tomorrow, then markets will start to surge, sooner or later, because more money entered the pool.

[dunfida]

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Do you think that with the current realities, the bull run history will definitely repeat itself? And peradventure, we don't get to witness a bull run to a new ATH by the end of this year 2025, would you still be expectant for year 2026 and why?

I expect that the bull run will repeat itself just like what it did in 2017, and in 2021. Well, I believe that many are expecting it as well. On the flip side, there's still a chance that it will not happen especially now that we are seeing various companies like Blackrock, Metaplanet, and Strategy continuing to accumulate Bitcoin. TBH, it's good to see institutions coming into play and buying Bitcoin, but there's something on my mind saying that it might have some consequences in the future. I hope not though.

Now if the new ATH that we are expecting will not happen this year, and will happen next year, I guess it's safe to say that we are on a supercycle. I mean it's the first time that it will happen because if we will follow the 4-year cycle, we will experience the bear market season by 2026. It's the first time happening if that happens, and TBH, it's kind of exciting how investors will react with it.

To those who had been able to experience those bull run cycles into that 2 previous bull runs then they will be that anticipating or be expecting for this upcoming one but since there are tons of things that has changed over the course of 4 years then we can actually say that there might be some things that could affect on delaying the current upcoming bull run that we do have on which its better to anticipate or that getting prepared for whats to come and its always that best that you should be that versatile or having that kind of acceptance whenever you do see the different cycle on which most people been that not expecting into. There might be that huge disappointment in overall community if ever the bull run was delayed for whatever reason behind into this one. If ever its said that its on 2026 then i do saw that there would be a huge sell off.

Trying to look on the current market sentiment now that people are already that getting bored or impatient with the current price volatility or price action because it isnt that showing any signs that we are pumping on.
Recently we've seen that Bitcoins price rose up for 2.5% on this day on which some might be seeing this to be an opportunity to sell in profits if you do go for short term but if you do go for long term then long term approach will the most viable option that you do need to take on.