US vs. China Tariff War Dashboard

[Wind_FURY]

I tried the link on my phone it showed error. I changed it to desktop mode and it continue to show error.





I also tried it on my computer and it showed error also.

It's currently fixed. No more errors.

Meanwhile, it's only the US that has placed tariffs on China, and they still have a host of other countries that do business with them normally. This is simply an advantage for China.

There's also the fact that China has a lower cost of production compared to the US. The cost of labour in China is also lower than in the US, so the companies won't lose much if tariffs are increased compared to the companies in the US.

yet reality is china closed many factories, workers migrated to places like vietnam, sending chinese cities real estate plummeting down and its retail malls and restaurants with no locals to buy things as they mostly migrated
china certainly is not just able to wait it out unharmed, they are already seeing big losses due to it

franky1, I'm merely curious. What's your general sentiment for the "Tariff War" that Trump started. You said that China has closed many factories, I believe that you also believe that, if China's economy is already going down, then Trump's "Tariff War" will push China's economy down further? The U.S. is China's largest consumer.

Plus what would it mean for other nation-states that were "attacked" by the U.S. with tariffs? Will they be making deals with China instead of the U.S.?

[franky1]

gotta laugh
china are not doing that well at all

china do positive PR spin for china in chinese news media.. and US prefer project fear clickbait for america in US media..
so definitely a waste of time using AI to rate countries based on news media

if plebs like windfury want a better observation of chinas status i recently found youtube channels like:
https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaObserver0

which show business owners and actual chinese people self reporting what they are observing via recordings, and where AI narrates it and summarises it into news report/short documentary style videos

highlight: manufacturing exudus from china to vietnam, thailand, india
               many chinese cities becoming ghost towns, even shopping malls are empty of customers
                  due to factory workers leaving town, so noone there in leisure time to buy/consume locally
              
forecast: May 2nd will hit hard for china when tariffs really kick in on goods below $800 (1930 tariff act: section 321(t86) 'de minimis' ends may 2nd )

Section 321 of the 1930 Tariff Act, along with its associated Entry Type 86, allows for the duty-free entry of low-value shipments into the United States, as long as they meet specific criteria. This program, also known as "de minimis," simplifies the customs clearance process for goods valued under a certain threshold.

..
in essence what im hinting at is.. windfury needs to get better sources

[pooya87]

forecast: May 2nd will hit hard for china when tariffs really kick in on goods below $800 (1930 tariff act: section 321(t86) 'de minimis' ends may 2nd )

Haven't we gained enough experience from the 2022 wave of Russian economy will implode by the end of the month type of topics that what the Western media tells you is 90% propaganda?

if plebs like windfury want a better observation of chinas status i recently found youtube channels like:
https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaObserver0

It is always a good idea to check the background of the owners of an outlet to figure out their motivations.
Such channels are usually run by political dissidents whose sole purpose is to create doom and gloom type of videos.

In this particular case, China Observer and its website are linked to this weird "new religions movement" called Falun Gong which has its headquarters inside New York, US!
If you want to trust what an organization that receives funds from the US federal government says about China then you don't know the basics of how propaganda works.

[franky1]

forecast: May 2nd will hit hard for china when tariffs really kick in on goods below $800 (1930 tariff act: section 321(t86) 'de minimis' ends may 2nd )

Haven't we gained enough experience from the 2022 wave of Russian economy will implode by the end of the month type of topics that what the Western media tells you is 90% propaganda?

but thats where you get to take keywords and research for non media sources. like legal documents and facts
which confirm that the <$800 exemption of customs tariffs expires on May 2nd

of course trump could create a new exemption on May 1st (last minute) to initiate on May 2nd. and yes that amount could be $800 again or some other number
EG $1000 for UK/EU. $20 for china.. [insert any/every variable]

but whats true factual and legally set is that the <$800 customs exemption is expiring May 2nd(reducing to $0) so things will change from that date

It is always a good idea to check the background of the owners of an outlet to figure out their motivations.
Such channels are usually run by political dissidents whose sole purpose is to create doom and gloom type of videos.

In this particular case, China Observer and its website are linked to this weird "new religions movement" called Falun Gong which has its headquarters inside New York, US!
If you want to trust what an organization that receives funds from the US federal government says about China then you don't know the basics of how propaganda works.

obviously check and research all media, to find out what way their agenda lean.. but thats the point. atleast they are providing sources.
having footage from business owners means you can check it. you dont have to just trust the narrator/story teller(nor should you)

unlike other media that just write narratives like "businesses move to vietnam", you can actually see and check the sources as they show them in that youtube channel link. so it makes research easier for 'plebs'(windfurys buzzword)

the youtube channel i linked are showing business owners and video footage of movements which you can then check and dig into the details of. such as foxconn moving its assembly machinery last week to vietnam.

you can even dig into the 'china observer' and see if others have researched and found that similar channels like 'china insights' are more so "Falun Gong" where as 'china observer' is more of a fairer/researched/sourced view of china with clearer sources and footage gathering

but comparing it to western media that dont even like to reveal sources, atleast some are more researchable even by the 'plebs'(windfurys buzzword)
its not a case of just believing the media linked/clickbaited. its to find the sources/key points within media story and verify. AKA DYOR
for example compare it to fox news which everyone knows leans towards trumpettes.. pretty much every fox "news story" you see on youtube is just a panel of 2-5 trump supporting americans sat in a so called newsroom style studio or talkshow panel, where all they do is talk between each other saying their confirmation bias opinions of what they think. and instead of announcing fact, they instead ask opinion questions but tweaked to sound like their opinion is the news

i prefer journalism to just narrate/collect/show the source footage from the business/victim/perpetrator, rather than newsroom style opinion echoing without showing the research they done

[Wind_FURY]

gotta laugh
china are not doing that well at all

china do positive PR spin for china in chinese news media.. and US prefer project fear clickbait for america in US media..
so definitely a waste of time using AI to rate countries based on news media

if plebs like windfury want a better observation of chinas status i recently found youtube channels like:
https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaObserver0

which show business owners and actual chinese people self reporting what they are observing via recordings, and where AI narrates it and summarises it into news report/short documentary style videos

highlight: manufacturing exudus from china to vietnam, thailand, india
               many chinese cities becoming ghost towns, even shopping malls are empty of customers
                  due to factory workers leaving town, so noone there in leisure time to buy/consume locally
              
forecast: May 2nd will hit hard for china when tariffs really kick in on goods below $800 (1930 tariff act: section 321(t86) 'de minimis' ends may 2nd )

Section 321 of the 1930 Tariff Act, along with its associated Entry Type 86, allows for the duty-free entry of low-value shipments into the United States, as long as they meet specific criteria. This program, also known as "de minimis," simplifies the customs clearance process for goods valued under a certain threshold.

..
in essence what im hinting at is.. windfury needs to get better sources

  

Haha. frankyandbeans is being a grumpy old man again. It's OK ser, I was merely curious about your position on the matter.

I'm actually neutral and see the situation as two sides of the same coin. The U.S. and China actually need each other - the U.S. has the purchasing power/the Dollar which everyone wants, and China has the cheaply produced goods that the people in the U.S. need.

The tariffs are probably Trump's method to "level the playing field" because from a manufacturing viewpoint, they can't compete against China's manipulation of the Yuan, and their cheap labor.

[franky1]

china is not actually cheapest
but ill leave you to research how china bait and hooked america and other countries into relying on and being locked into china

but now america is seeing an opportunity to diversify and decentralise its lock with china as the factory of the world
many tricks were played several decades ago causing america to be stuck to china.. but now things are changing

you'll find interest in learning them and then seeing which ones are being undone this year and how rapidly they are getting undone

..
a better gauge would be to get AI to review all the mega trade deals of us v china and all WTO conditions/deals and then get AI to list which ones have been expired, rescinded, updated, swapped

..
also trump is not interested in having all industry "made in the USA".. thats just a buzzword to scare countries into thinking they will lose 100% of business. trump knows international supply is still going to be needed which is why he wants all the trade deals renegotiated. rather then just close the borders of all ports inbound

[Darker45]

~snip~

If the United States succeeds and wins against China, it means we will continue to maintain a unipolar world with the dominance of a single power. This also means that we will continue to be bullied and threatened by them without being able to fight back or resist.

Meanwhile, if China succeeds, we will have a multipolar world with power evenly distributed and no longer concentrated in one country, including China.

Both are bad guys and the best scenario for the world is for them to compete with each other, power should be divided rather than concentrated entirely in the hands of one of them.

Indeed, let's hope the US succeeds against China. They're both evils, but the US seems to be the lesser one.

Actually China is the lesser evil here but good news is that we don't have to wish for one of these two to win! Their war actually weakens both of them and that's is a good thing for the rest of the world as long as we take advantage of it.
I already shared my mind here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5537130.0 on how this can help everyone strengthen.

Yeah, I've read that thread, and have already said my piece.

Anyway, I've realized it's indeed better for these two bullies to bully each other, and weaken each other in the process. The world would be a lot better this way compared to when they're at peace with each other, cooperating with each other to bully smaller and less powerful nations.

And, yeah, more importantly, for these two bullies to be in a trade war against each other would be a boon to the market of smaller countries. As a matter of fact, my country is said to benefit from this ongoing trade war. I can only wish we're quick and competent enough to take advantage of this.

[pooya87]

obviously check and research all media, to find out what way their agenda lean.. but thats the point. atleast they are providing sources.
having footage from business owners means you can check it. you dont have to just trust the narrator/story teller(nor should you)

The problem is not about the sources, it is about the narrative that the extremely biased group is providing.

[takuma sato]

obviously check and research all media, to find out what way their agenda lean.. but thats the point. atleast they are providing sources.
having footage from business owners means you can check it. you dont have to just trust the narrator/story teller(nor should you)

The problem is not about the sources, it is about the narrative that the extremely biased group is providing.

If you go on twitter you will see conflicting news on your feed all the time. I have always news about how Trump just said that the tariff deals are doing great. 5 minutes later, another account reports that the tariff talks with Trump are fake, that they simply don't exist. In fact, like a day ago someone that seems important in China, the foreign ministry, came out and said that they are not talking with the US at all. So either China is lying, or Trump is lying.

[franky1]

If you go on twitter you will see conflicting news on your feed all the time. I have always news about how Trump just said that the tariff deals are doing great. 5 minutes later, another account reports that the tariff talks with Trump are fake, that they simply don't exist. In fact, like a day ago someone that seems important in China, the foreign ministry, came out and said that they are not talking with the US at all. So either China is lying, or Trump is lying.

trump is not talking to Xi direct as the last fortnight Xi has been busy on a ASEAN tour.
but obviously both sides cabinets/advisers are playing tug of war on the phone lines trying to suss out each sides end goals of their opposing leaders

and obviously the art of the deal is not to show your hand to the audience(public) before the cards are dealt, so yea its a waiting game

EG if you are trying to haggle/barter you dont announce your top or bottom price to media with the warped sense of belief that the other side wont also hear it. you keep your limits guarded until the deal is done

china always used to have higher tariffs than opposing side, but tipped its hand when it stopped at 125% and america went higher(for once)
so america found china's ceiling


obviously a smart move if no deal is made is america make one for itself that benefits them and puts the other side in a defending position

EG if trump wants say 10% or lower matched tariffs a simple tool would be to set:

tariffs are 400% on chinese goods unless china offer 10% or less on american goods, which america will then match
that way its <11% or 400%
meanwhile america just get goods from other countries and let china be left with the choice

[pooya87]

obviously check and research all media, to find out what way their agenda lean.. but thats the point. atleast they are providing sources.
having footage from business owners means you can check it. you dont have to just trust the narrator/story teller(nor should you)

The problem is not about the sources, it is about the narrative that the extremely biased group is providing.

If you go on twitter you will see conflicting news on your feed all the time. I have always news about how Trump just said that the tariff deals are doing great. 5 minutes later, another account reports that the tariff talks with Trump are fake, that they simply don't exist. In fact, like a day ago someone that seems important in China, the foreign ministry, came out and said that they are not talking with the US at all. So either China is lying, or Trump is lying.

They are both politicians so they are both lying

The thing is Trump is trying to bully everyone to accept his demands just like a thug! Some countries may accept, some others won't. Some countries may even accept and then change their decision like what happened with Panama.
But at the end of the day regardless of what each side's politicians are saying, there is a war going on and wars have consequences. Consequences that are starting to show up in both US and China as well as the rest of the world.

[franky1]

They are both politicians so they are both lying

does this need explaining. ofcourse politicians lie, just like lawyers do

The thing is Trump is trying to bully everyone to accept his demands just like a thug!

the thing is the "war" going on between china and the US, does not involve physically invading each others countries using guns and bombs
now imagine if all "war" strategies were done via negotiations and bureaucracy/diplomatics instead of guns/bombs

or do you prefer to have trump invade china with guns and bombs to handle the "war on drugs" like previous american presidents did in the gulfwars and such prior
or do you prefer to have trump invade iran with guns and bombs to handle the anti-nuke, houthi rebel sponsoring regimes

trumps trying to use diplomacy and negotiations to get iran to not become a warzone with nuclear capability, and get them to stop funding/sponsoring the houthi rebels so that the houthi rebels simply run out of weapons to no longer cause issues in the suez/red sea area

or do you prefer to have trump just endlessly bombing the houthi rebels supply dumps and military leaders hiding spots

[takuma sato]

Meanwhile, it's only the US that has placed tariffs on China, and they still have a host of other countries that do business with them normally. This is simply an advantage for China.

There's also the fact that China has a lower cost of production compared to the US. The cost of labour in China is also lower than in the US, so the companies won't lose much if tariffs are increased compared to the companies in the US.

yet reality is china closed many factories, workers migrated to places like vietnam, sending chinese cities real estate plummeting down and its retail malls and restaurants with no locals to buy things as they mostly migrated
china certainly is not just able to wait it out unharmed, they are already seeing big losses due to it

China has a ton of real state that is not being used right now because they misscalculated bigly their demographical expectations it seems. I think they just thought people would have tons of kids in the future, but they didn't for whatever reason, and so what you get now is entire cities that are empty. You can go on YouTube and check travel vlog channels, and there's all these videos with youtubers doing trips to empty cities (probably, many of these are paid by chinese traveling agencies to do an advertising campaign about this and get people to move there). The bottomline is that there are simply ghost cities with few people living. But that doesn't mean China doesn't have massive leverage on exports. We are going to see what happens next month when tariff results start being felt by the west as less cargo ships filled with cheap goods arrive.

[indah rezqi]

obviously check and research all media, to find out what way their agenda lean.. but thats the point. atleast they are providing sources.
having footage from business owners means you can check it. you dont have to just trust the narrator/story teller(nor should you)

The problem is not about the sources, it is about the narrative that the extremely biased group is providing.

If you go on twitter you will see conflicting news on your feed all the time. I have always news about how Trump just said that the tariff deals are doing great. 5 minutes later, another account reports that the tariff talks with Trump are fake, that they simply don't exist. In fact, like a day ago someone that seems important in China, the foreign ministry, came out and said that they are not talking with the US at all. So either China is lying, or Trump is lying.

It's no surprise that social media platforms are the most effective channels for building narratives about anything these days. Many people are easily convinced, especially when information is presented repeatedly. I believe China and the United States will negotiate, because in principle they need each other, but we never know when that will happen. One party claims there is progress in negotiations, while the other party denies there is any negotiation. I think the phrase "follow the paper trail and the actions, not the noise" is quite relevant for addressing the current war of narratives. In the meantime, this may mark a new chapter in tensions between China and America.

[takuma sato]

They are both politicians so they are both lying

does this need explaining. ofcourse politicians lie, just like lawyers do

The thing is Trump is trying to bully everyone to accept his demands just like a thug!

the thing is the "war" going on between china and the US, does not involve physically invading each others countries using guns and bombs
now imagine if all "war" strategies were done via negotiations and bureaucracy/diplomatics instead of guns/bombs

or do you prefer to have trump invade china with guns and bombs to handle the "war on drugs" like previous american presidents did in the gulfwars and such prior
or do you prefer to have trump invade iran with guns and bombs to handle the anti-nuke, houthi rebel sponsoring regimes

trumps trying to use diplomacy and negotiations to get iran to not become a warzone with nuclear capability, and get them to stop funding/sponsoring the houthi rebels so that the houthi rebels simply run out of weapons to no longer cause issues in the suez/red sea area

or do you prefer to have trump just endlessly bombing the houthi rebels supply dumps and military leaders hiding spots

I understand Trump is trying to force things to have leverage during negotiations but he may get too reckless and things could backfire. If enough people get tired of that situation, who knows what kind of exotical aliances you could see. We just saw a few weeks ago the China-Japan-South Korea picture, who wouldh ave thought we would see such setup? And we are also seeing EU countries approaching China. Canada even considered joining EU in a sort of way. So if you push too far, you may isolate yourself. Trump has to make measured moves and know when to pull back, but you also risk that if you pull back too much, you will look like everything you do is a bluff, so it's one of those things.

As far as Iran, I think it's justified to push these guys as much as possible, and even intervene militarily if needed. We don't need some crazy theocracy with nukes, we already have enough with North Korea.

[franky1]

China has a ton of real state that is not being used right now because they misscalculated bigly their demographical expectations it seems. I think they just thought people would have tons of kids in the future, but they didn't for whatever reason, and so what you get now is entire cities that are empty.

the main reason to have miscalculated the birthrate growth expectation is because although they relaxed the one child policy in 2015. adults in 2015 were already culterally indocrinated decade before to only have one child. so its ingrained into their ethos by the time they reached adulthood.
so the desire to want multiple kids is already trained out of them for those that are now married adults in 2025 but were educated to only prefer one child when they were teenagers a decade+ ago

chinese politicians however didnt take that into account nor did real estate developers/investors. they instead thought adults in 2015+ would be popping out extra kids straight away by feeling more liberated..

then chinese government relaxed the 2 child policy trying to again make people feel liberated to pop more kids out.
however it would require the teenagers of school age AFTER 2015 to be culturally liberated to feel that their future family decisions are more open. meaning someone thats under 12yr old in 2015 that feels liberated would not reach parenting age until well 2020's
so all those apartments built 2015-2020 just were not filling up

The bottomline is that there are simply ghost cities with few people living.

yes the ghost cities due to bad population growth predictions produced those... but now..
active cities in the industrial zones are now getting hit due to this years trade deal stuff, which is causing more empty buildings ontop of the previous issue

there is mass exodus of industrialised cities. where some are moving to other countries to work in competing factories or when there are no jobs left even abroad, they return to their ancestral/parents villagers to work on farms or fishing in the rural area's

But that doesn't mean China doesn't have massive leverage on exports. We are going to see what happens next month when tariff results start being felt by the west as less cargo ships filled with cheap goods arrive.

china is already losing its leverage. chinese ports are already filling up with containers of cancelled orders and suppliers are being hit by demurrage charges(parking tickets) for leaving goods at ports.
china is also cancelling export flights and cencelling new built plane orders.
even cancelling new cargo ship builds. they have loads of cargo ships just parked up already
 
unless china come to a deal by May 2nd there will be further hits on goods under $800 that will be tariffed(de minimis exemption expires). meaning pretty much all goods

[heraware]

I tried the link on my phone it showed error. I changed it to desktop mode and it continue to show error.





I also tried it on my computer and it showed error also.

It's currently fixed. No more errors.

Meanwhile, it's only the US that has placed tariffs on China, and they still have a host of other countries that do business with them normally. This is simply an advantage for China.

There's also the fact that China has a lower cost of production compared to the US. The cost of labour in China is also lower than in the US, so the companies won't lose much if tariffs are increased compared to the companies in the US.

yet reality is china closed many factories, workers migrated to places like vietnam, sending chinese cities real estate plummeting down and its retail malls and restaurants with no locals to buy things as they mostly migrated
china certainly is not just able to wait it out unharmed, they are already seeing big losses due to it

franky1, I'm merely curious. What's your general sentiment for the "Tariff War" that Trump started. You said that China has closed many factories, I believe that you also believe that, if China's economy is already going down, then Trump's "Tariff War" will push China's economy down further? The U.S. is China's largest consumer.

Plus what would it mean for other nation-states that were "attacked" by the U.S. with tariffs? Will they be making deals with China instead of the U.S.?

Congrats for this tools!

[Agbe]

china is already losing its leverage. chinese ports are already filling up with containers of cancelled orders and suppliers are being hit by demurrage charges(parking tickets) for leaving goods at ports.
china is also cancelling export flights and cencelling new built plane orders.
even cancelling new cargo ship builds. they have loads of cargo ships just parked up already
 
unless china come to a deal by May 2nd there will be further hits on goods under $800 that will be tariffed(de minimis exemption expires). meaning pretty much all goods

China is not the only one losing here America too is losing out because major American exports too are currently affected in all sectors the fact of the matter is that this trade face-off between America and China is not going to be an easy one for the both side because the effects of this situation is greatly going to have a direct impact on the economic growth of these nations especially in the areas of job because major staffs of companies are going to be laid off when the war gets to a certain  point where the both sides will not shift grounds

[Bitcoin_Arena]

china is already losing its leverage. chinese ports are already filling up with containers of cancelled orders and suppliers are being hit by demurrage charges(parking tickets) for leaving goods at ports.
china is also cancelling export flights and cencelling new built plane orders.
even cancelling new cargo ship builds. they have loads of cargo ships just parked up already
 
unless china come to a deal by May 2nd there will be further hits on goods under $800 that will be tariffed(de minimis exemption expires). meaning pretty much all goods

If China is on the losing end, then why are Trump and the US panicking and hoping Xi Jinping and China call them up as soon as possible? China has so many other trade partners to deal with, unlike the US that has been trying to isolate themselves over the years with stupid sanction policies.

China can still move their goods and trade with South America, Africa, Rest of Asia and parts of Europe. Yes there may be some impact at the beginning but in the long run, China will be just fine.

[franky1]

If China is on the losing end, then why are Trump and the US panicking and hoping Xi Jinping and China call them up as soon as possible?

because trump wants to have some success stories to have occured within his "first 100 days"
thats why he is trying to push for peace with ukraine and russia quickly too

China has so many other trade partners to deal with, unlike the US that has been trying to isolate themselves over the years with stupid sanction policies.

China can still move their goods and trade with South America, Africa, Rest of Asia and parts of Europe. Yes there may be some impact at the beginning but in the long run, China will be just fine.

other countries dont have the capacity to take on all the stuff... thats why its stockpiling at chinese ports and being charged demurrage charges for being left there, no one else is willing to take that much in that huge amount
chinese businesses are also trying to sell fully retail ready and working stuff for scrap price domestically just to get it off the ports. but other countries are refusing as they will be lumbered with the stock pile

EG where by africa does not have much of a rainy season. whom would want thousands of umbrella's per container
EG whereby african heat means people wear open toed sandalls, whom would want high heel stilettos and leather boots
EG whereby africa's national grid electric* does not extend to most rural towns and villages, whom wants hundreds of air friers and electrical devices per container
[endless examples]

*most of africa's population are unelectrified (about 600m peoples homes dont have national grid access)

most other countries dont want an onslaught of near free stuff as it then hurts their own economics of their own business/manufacturing
EG if they take on loads of free solar, their own solar businesses in africa will shut down so they would rather say no to protect their own economy
EG if they take on loads more rice. then their own rice farms would suffer

this is what america is trying to do and others are following. not let china push other countries into accepting discounted stuff which would stop countries domestic production

..
decades ago china done this as a strategy.. they sold stuff below cost(businesses subsidised by chinese gov) to get other countries like the US to sell it and switch off US manufacturing and just rely on chinese supply. then china tied the US into trade deals of decades long contracts to only get certain goods from them rather than other countries

china would also offload underpriced stuff into vietnam and thailand to shut down their manufacturing. or even just buy up other countries factories to destroy the competition...

however
now many countries are seeing the light of that mistake and wanting to renegotiate the trade deals and not falling for same trick twice. heck even this week vietnam are sanctioning and charging chinese ships for trying to do these tricks

when goods are sold at normal price from china(chinese business profit without subsidy). the cost of goods are not actually the cheapest worldwide
so this time countries are not falling for same trap again. (taking below cost goods(subsidised) causing shutting down domestic production) nor becoming reliant on chinese goods and then being contracted into continual supply from china whereby china raise prices once deals are locked in

this time countries want to decentralise their supply chain. keep options open and take long term view