Bitcoin and the M2 global money supply.

[JamesDaniel90]

Hi all,

I keep hearing many talk about the M2 global money supply lately saying how Bitcoin typically follows this with a 2-3 month delay.

I haven't looked into it enough to fully understand it yet but is the above correct?

Many are saying if so then we are due for a good few months for Bitcoin and crypto.

[Ruttoshi]

Of course, it can be true because bitcoin is the fastest growing asset in profits currently and that can also affect the increase in M2 global money supply. One unique feature of bitcoin that skyrocket the price of bitcoin is the halving. After the halving comes the bull run and in every bull run bitcoin prices hits a new ATH. Investors have come to understand this and that is why you see that institutions, big tech firms and government are rushing in bitcoin because of the exponential increase in price overtime.

Therefore, if bitcoin price is always in the increase side, the M2 global money supply will also increase simultaneously with the price of bitcoin, because more investors will want to invest wisely into an asset that increases in value overtime like bitcoin. Bitcoin is a store of value and will attract more investors.

[nemesis_incarnate]

^ But as we can also see, short-time pullbacks are inevitable, and it's obvious that it can happen again, and again, and so on - but I am optimistic too and hope that in the upcoming months, the price will roar with confidence.

[Maslate]

If the money supply increases, that’s basically a big sign of inflation. And when that happens, Bitcoin actually benefits as people will want to protect their money from losing value, and one of the best ways to do that is by investing in Bitcoin, since its supply is fixed.

So news like this, about more money being printed, to me, signals that the global economy is struggling. In the worst case, it could even lead to hyperinflation. That’s why Bitcoin will always be there as a backup plan, a way to escape that mess.

What we need to do now is simple, just accumulate Bitcoin.

With this kind of news in play, Bitcoin might start climbing again, and we might even see a new all-time high this year.

[henry_of_skalitz]

If the money supply increases, that’s basically a big sign of inflation. And when that happens, Bitcoin actually benefits as people will want to protect their money from losing value, and one of the best ways to do that is by investing in Bitcoin, since its supply is fixed.

So news like this, about more money being printed, to me, signals that the global economy is struggling. In the worst case, it could even lead to hyperinflation. That’s why Bitcoin will always be there as a backup plan, a way to escape that mess.

What we need to do now is simple, just accumulate Bitcoin.

With this kind of news in play, Bitcoin might start climbing again, and we might even see a new all-time high this year.

These funds will be poured into the liquidity like no others, both in the broader markets and the crypto market too.

So I would be optimistic about the funds flowing in, rather than staying in the fear zone.

[Darker45]

I haven't really looked into this in great details, but I have also encountered such analysis many times on social media. Accordingly, there's a 12-week or 90-day lag before Bitcoin's price reacts to a global increase in M2 money supply. Perhaps this is somehow related to the analysis that Bitcoin's price also increases whenever the Federal Reserve cut interest rates.

But the reason why I'm not particularly interested in looking into this is that I don't think it matters that much, at least to me who's a hodler and not a trader. Whether or not there's indeed correlation between the factors mentioned doesn't matter much to me who's looking at the long term. It seems there's no other way for Bitcoin in the long term but up.

[Plaguedeath]

I don't even see there's any correlation at all, they moves completely different.

M2 money supply grow steady since 2011 to 2020, while Bitcoin price were up and down, no stability.
M2 money supply suddenly rose in Q1 2020, while Bitcoin price suddenly rose in Q4 2020.
Peak of M2 money supply happen on April 2022, while Bitcoin were in bear season.

[dzungmobile]

I don't even see there's any correlation at all, they moves completely different.

It's fake correlation used by people who want to manipulate psychology of market participants. M2 supply and Bitcoin supply are different, not related to each other. Governments can not control Bitcoin supply, and Bitcoin has power to control M2 supply. Bitcoin matures in its own ways with unprecedented adoption curve that boosts its value and price growth. M2 supply is only a catalyst for Bitcoin market volume, marketcap and price growth, not main reason.

M2 money supply grow steady since 2011 to 2020, while Bitcoin price were up and down, no stability.
M2 money supply suddenly rose in Q1 2020, while Bitcoin price suddenly rose in Q4 2020.
Peak of M2 money supply happen on April 2022, while Bitcoin were in bear season.

It's good charts for comparison to see fact.

[l3pox]

I don't even see there's any correlation at all, they moves completely different.

<...>

you are looking at the wrong chart, nowadays it is pretty correlated, Raoul Paul often posts it on his twitter, here's one of the last posts


source: https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1912554771644325905

but you can find several other posts:
https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1914549315701178679
https://x.com/BillyFOMOs/status/1915095090038456763

BTC tracks the M2 with around 90 days delay

do you know what it means?
that we're gonna pump higher soon

[Ucy]

It's mainly the works or contributions within the Bitcoin/crypto community that trend researchers who wish to understand why Bitcoin price behaves the way it does should follow. If price is going up or is about to go up even higher, it's likely that good things that's according to Bitcoin principles or ideals are happening within the Bitcoin community . Could be project developments, good quality contents on Bitcoin, etc. Basically search for people or things who are doing what Bitcoin loves if you want to know what is moving price up. Bitcoin loves decentralization, self-custody, transparency, open-source, trustlessness, immutablity, censorship resistant, privacy, anonymity, deflationary Bitcoin, permissionlessness, open consensus, etc. Community contributions have to be connected to these and others

[fuguebtc]

M2 money supply grow steady since 2011 to 2020, while Bitcoin price were up and down, no stability.

The M2 money supply increases steadily every year and that makes fiat cheaper and cheaper, which is one of the reasons why the price of bitcoin and other assets is rising. Bitcoin price is volatile because it is affected by other factors such as geopolitics, manipulation...and not only depends on M2.

M2 money supply suddenly rose in Q1 2020, while Bitcoin price suddenly rose in Q4 2020.

In 2020, the US and world M2 increased to record levels starting in February 2020 due to government economic stimulus packages in response to the covid pandemic. Not only bitcoin, the stock market also grew strongly during the pandemic thanks to the government's money pumping move. So it can be said that M2 and bitcoin and risk assets have a clear correlation at that stage, and there is a certain lag.

Peak of M2 money supply happen on April 2022, while Bitcoin were in bear season.

M2 money supply peaks in April but tends to slow down thereafter as the economy begins to fall into inflation. That is the result of pumping money, increasing M2 money supply to save the economy and inflation in the US reaching 9.1% in 2022. That forced the Fed to raise interest rates, slow down liquidity expansion and tighten monetary policy...causing the price of bitcoin to fall.

Bitcoin and M2 are correlated and things will become clearer, especially during periods when M2 is expanded to increase liquidity.

Currently, the M2 money supply in Europe and China is increasing very strongly, but in the US it has not increased too strongly yet. But soon, as the Fed starts to taper quantitative tightening, M2 will spike and peak, bitcoin and risk assets will follow.

[davis196]

Hi all,

I keep hearing many talk about the M2 global money supply lately saying how Bitcoin typically follows this with a 2-3 month delay.

I haven't looked into it enough to fully understand it yet but is the above correct?

Many are saying if so then we are due for a good few months for Bitcoin and crypto.

Why don't you post a link to the source of information?
It's pretty normal for the prices of all financial assets to grow, if the global money supply increases. However, bigger money supply means inflation and fiat currency devaluation, which means that fiat currency becomes less valuable instead of the financial assets(including Bitcoin) becoming more valuable. Nobody can predict what will happen in the next few months with Bitcoin and crypto. Trump is unpredictable.
Yesterday, I saw that the BTC price had recovered to 92K USD, but I'm not sure about this being sustainable. Maybe BTC will drop back to 80K, if Trump says or makes something, that will shock the financial markets again.

[FortuneFollower]

you are looking at the wrong chart, nowadays it is pretty correlated, Raoul Paul often posts it on his twitter, here's one of the last posts


source: https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1912554771644325905

but you can find several other posts:
https://x.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1914549315701178679
https://x.com/BillyFOMOs/status/1915095090038456763

BTC tracks the M2 with around 90 days delay

do you know what it means?
that we're gonna pump higher soon

Seems legit, because liquidity will pour on everything investors put their eyes on when they are confident, and why not go into BTC while they are at it? So much potential for them there, it's obvious that at least portion of that liquidity will go down in the BTC space.

[JamesDaniel90]

Hi all,

I keep hearing many talk about the M2 global money supply lately saying how Bitcoin typically follows this with a 2-3 month delay.

I haven't looked into it enough to fully understand it yet but is the above correct?

Many are saying if so then we are due for a good few months for Bitcoin and crypto.

Why don't you post a link to the source of information?
It's pretty normal for the prices of all financial assets to grow, if the global money supply increases. However, bigger money supply means inflation and fiat currency devaluation, which means that fiat currency becomes less valuable instead of the financial assets(including Bitcoin) becoming more valuable. Nobody can predict what will happen in the next few months with Bitcoin and crypto. Trump is unpredictable.
Yesterday, I saw that the BTC price had recovered to 92K USD, but I'm not sure about this being sustainable. Maybe BTC will drop back to 80K, if Trump says or makes something, that will shock the financial markets again.

It is mainly on Youtube.

Many of the channels I follow are saying to keep eye on the m2 over the next few months and it looks like it makes sense.

[l3pox]

Hi all,

I keep hearing many talk about the M2 global money supply lately saying how Bitcoin typically follows this with a 2-3 month delay.

I haven't looked into it enough to fully understand it yet but is the above correct?

Many are saying if so then we are due for a good few months for Bitcoin and crypto.

Why don't you post a link to the source of information?
It's pretty normal for the prices of all financial assets to grow, if the global money supply increases. However, bigger money supply means inflation and fiat currency devaluation, which means that fiat currency becomes less valuable instead of the financial assets(including Bitcoin) becoming more valuable. Nobody can predict what will happen in the next few months with Bitcoin and crypto. Trump is unpredictable.
Yesterday, I saw that the BTC price had recovered to 92K USD, but I'm not sure about this being sustainable. Maybe BTC will drop back to 80K, if Trump says or makes something, that will shock the financial markets again.

It is mainly on Youtube.

Many of the channels I follow are saying to keep eye on the m2 over the next few months and it looks like it makes sense.

what are the places where I can find an up to date M2 chart?
I know there's the possibility to see it inside trading view but it's line chart only and not easy to compare to BTC

if M2 keeps expanding btc will keep raising, this is the main thing to be aware of

[mindrust]

Almost every asset follows the global money supply. Gold, major index etf’s, bitcoin… Unless the asset is total crap, that’s the case.

The reason is simple.

The central banks print money and that money has to go somewhere and it does. It inflates the asset prices.

That’s why people call gold an inflation hedge. (Bitcoin too)

One way or another, sooner or later, that money flows to gold. No matter how cheap gold gets in the short term, in the long term it evens out.

That’s why holding FIAT always suck in the long term.

[OcTradism]

what are the places where I can find an up to date M2 chart?
I know there's the possibility to see it inside trading view but it's line chart only and not easy to compare to BTC

if M2 keeps expanding btc will keep raising, this is the main thing to be aware of

It does not work like if M2 supply is doubled, Bitcoin price will be doubled too so you don't need to find real time update of M2 supply and use it for your Bitcoin price speculation.

News on media can help you like USA government printed more money, Chinese government printed more yuan, and same with news on money supplies globally.

If you want this.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/3439/major-bank-m2-comparsion
https://bitcoincounterflow.com/charts/m2-global/

[CageMabok]

Hi all,

I keep hearing many talk about the M2 global money supply lately saying how Bitcoin typically follows this with a 2-3 month delay.

I haven't looked into it enough to fully understand it yet but is the above correct?

Many are saying if so then we are due for a good few months for Bitcoin and crypto.

I also don't know if the statement you mentioned is true or not because if we look at the Bitcoin supply, it should be pretty clear that Bitcoin has a limit that is already stated and is already known by many people so that there is no more additional supply for Bitcoin. As for the circulation of money supply in society, it is still difficult to track because paper money can still be printed even though printing it itself also requires a clearer reason. But every government can certainly print by increasing the amount of money supply in a certain year for a certain purpose.

[NotATether]

BTC tracks the M2 with around 90 days delay

If the Bitcoin price tracks the M2 so accurately, then how come people aren't shorting or longing the price accordingly on exchanges?

I get that a few people might be doing this already, but I think it's also obvious that most traders have no idea what they're doing.

[MinoRaiola]

I look at it from a general point of view. The inflation and the “new money” that they printed every year, with that, there is more money in circulation. For private most of the money is probably not invested in bitcoin, but even there there will be people who have had more money available to buy bitcoin over the last 10 years. The same is true for larger companies or financial managers. I like to compare prices for different things and look back 10 or 20 years. Then i look at inflation % over the last 10-20 years and from that alone, you can see how the amount of money has change.