We’re not in a replacement scenario anymore. We’re in convergence, fragmentation, and coexistence all at once. The fiat-crypto debate is now a negotiation of rails, not a war of currencies. Anyone still arguing for total takeover is still sleepwalking the 2017 in a 2025 economy
1. BTC As a State Asset Class?So… the U.S. Treasury is now sitting on ~207,000 BTC, seized and locked. Executive Order 14233 wants to turn that into a Strategic Reserve
[1]. But the Treasury missed its own deadline (May 5) to publish the legal framework for this reserve. And that silence is loud. Market doesn’t like policy fog, especially with a $12B asset pool under the feds. Meanwhile, the BITCOIN Act proposes buying 1 million BTC over 5 years. Sounds insane? That’s roughly 5% of total supply. Politicians are split: some call it economic foresight, others call it gambling with public funds
Question for the forum: if state treasuries start DCA in, what happens to the inflation hedge narrative? Does Bitcoin become… boring?
2. El Salvador still troll the IMFBukele’s wallet holds 6,170 BTC, worth ~$600M
[2]
IMF literally told them in writing to limit accumulate BTC in their new $1.4B loan agreement
[3]. What does El Salvador do? Buys 31 BTC in 30 days, calls it a “citizen donation”. Creative or trolling?
More importantly, 92% of Salvadorans still don’t use Bitcoin
Geopolitically: They’re trying to make a long-term hedge against dollar risk. Economically: They still depend on remittances and U.S. tourism. Politically: It’s theater
3. ETFs - Flowing In, Confusing EveryoneSince January 2024, spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. pulled in $40B+ in net inflows, with $3.5B in final-week of April alone
[4]
BlackRock’s IBIT led the pack, pulling $674M, $531M on May 2 and May 5, respectively
But the 6 May ETF data was completely contradictory. Some firms said +$420M inflow
[5], another said -$85M outflow (chart above). This kind of noise is dangerous. How can institutions model volatility when the inflow data itself isn’t accurate?
Also, what happens when the next correction hits and retail gets liquidated via ETF exposure? Will this be 2017 all over again, but in suits?
4. The Global Central Bank DividePro-BTC | Anti-BTC |
| US NH treasury allocation [6], BITCOIN Act [7], OCC reform [8] | EU ECB flat-out refuses BTC in reserves, heading toward CBDC |
| SV Daily buys despite IMF restrictions | SE Still debating legality of Bitcoin reserves after Dioukarev’s pro-bitcoin letter [10] |
| CZ CNB governor proposes 5% BTC reserve allocation [9] | DE Bundesbank labels BTC "digital tulips" [11] |
The IMF now labels BTC as a “non-produced, non-financial asset” and wants 2030 compliance on accounting for it, legitimation with a side of shade. The ECB, on the other hand, is doubling down on the digital euro, trying to write off BTC as a systemic risk. MiCA 2.0 is on the table. And they’re definitely not inviting Satoshi to the G7 dinner
Are we seeing the emergence of Bitcoin as a
shadow monetary layer, quietly being adopted by institutions and states as a hedge against debt-fueled fiat collapse? Or is this just another risk-on rally, where ETF flows and American political theater temporarily pump the asset before another year-long drawdown?
- Does mass institutional adoption break Bitcoin’s core ethos?
- Do ETFs neuter BTC into a regulatory-approval toy, stripped of self-custody and sovereignty?
- Is the average user being priced out by nation-states and hedge funds?
I would also much value any comments on anything in the layout, data, statistics, or presentation style that seems off, or could be clearer. Not only the material but also the delivery method. I constantly want to improve my sharing of things here
Edit: table is broken, really need some help, i need a smoke right now
