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Author Topic: Right/best strategy to catch the house edge for long term  (Read 240 times)
AVE5 (OP)
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May 10, 2025, 08:25:40 PM
 #1

My biggest ever gambling strategy of keeping long term potential success is getting on the table(making your bet) on live matches most better as from the halftime out of the 90 Mins in the football game, then compare their odds in the realtime and how much long for the game to end.
There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches.
You just need not to be greedy of increasing your risks just to Increase your payout rate otherwise you'll lost it all back. So,  know when to stop.

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May 10, 2025, 08:30:20 PM
 #2

There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping
Those are the odds that you want to choose from because you want to bet safely, but some odds will be increasing as the match is getting to 90 minutes. Example are odds of the losing team which will be increasing while getting close to 90 minutes.

In-play will look simple but it is also very risky just like other bets.

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May 10, 2025, 08:45:53 PM
 #3

I don't think this offers much of a difference. Odds are adjusted as the games go and many times the flow of a game can change at anytime, meaning after you place your bets, the least expected team to win can always pull a surprise.

But if this works for you, then you can definitely keep up that strategy

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May 10, 2025, 08:59:47 PM
 #4

There is no real house edge in sport betting except that the ball is round and everything can happen with it. In this context we have seen teams standing last beating the hell out of the Champions and let me make you an example I will never forget, Boston Celtics the reigning Champions with an odd 1.04 in Basketball NBA lost to the team being last in the standings. I doubt betting live on events can make any real difference unless you are watching the game and even so, most of the games have a surprise ending, like Inter vs Barcelona which was 2-3 in 87th minute yet the game ended 4-3 in favor of Inter. Watching this game live would have not made you think that Inter is going to win this, as Barcelona was dominating, and last but least, the house edge is only in luck games, not skill ones.


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May 10, 2025, 09:22:58 PM
 #5

My biggest ever gambling strategy of keeping long term potential success is getting on the table(making your bet) on live matches most better as from the halftime out of the 90 Mins in the football game, then compare their odds in the realtime and how much long for the game to end.
There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches.
You just need not to be greedy of increasing your risks just to Increase your payout rate otherwise you'll lost it all back. So,  know when to stop.

Sound as a good strategy, but I'm not sure it will work for the long term, because in sports anything can happen in the last minutes, and i have see a lot of times how the game change in the end, even i have see gambles betting at 95% chance to win in sports and then they lose the bet, so, don't forget this is gambling and there is no a always win method, maybe you will win most of your bets with this method, but you will lose some too, so, play it smart.
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May 10, 2025, 09:46:37 PM
 #6

On a norm when gambling or staking games on live matches is actually a bit profitable but the odds are way too low and comparing to about to start matches their odds are a bit good.
But anyone who can maintain games from that time of halftime or about to start full time can actually make good win but very low payout, except such person would stake with an amount far way higher than it's originally planned amount. For me, to have some good odds I do make my analysis days before the game starts with this I have a better chances of securing good odds, maybe as people keeps staking on those games their odds could be decreasing.


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May 11, 2025, 05:14:56 AM
 #7

My biggest ever gambling strategy of keeping long term potential success is getting on the table(making your bet) on live matches most better as from the halftime out of the 90 Mins in the football game, then compare their odds in the realtime and how much long for the game to end. There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches. You just need not to be greedy of increasing your risks just to Increase your payout rate otherwise you'll lost it all back. So,  know when to stop.

I am being honest with you, I have been using this strategy when I place bets on sports. I usually do not place bets on sports, but when I have some free bets or I feel like I have to gamble for entertainment, I sometimes place bets on sports, and I place bets on live matches. But when it comes to placing bets on my favourite team, I place a bet even hours ago because no matter the situation, I have always placed bets for my favourite team.

Even then, the match could end in a draw, and you could lose your bets. Sports are uncertain, and anything can change the result of a match. So never go all in, even if you are fully confident in your team.


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May 11, 2025, 08:22:45 AM
 #8

I don't think this offers much of a difference. Odds are adjusted as the games go and many times the flow of a game can change at anytime, meaning after you place your bets, the least expected team to win can always pull a surprise.

That's what I thought. I don't know much about sports betting but it would be logical that the odds would be adjusted.

But if this works for you, then you can definitely keep up that strategy

What I also wonder is to what extent that works for the OP. If it has worked for him a few times the sample is so minimal that we can't draw conclusions, and if the OP wants to claim that it works very well in the long run he better provide evidence.

But most likely it will be the former. Too many gamblers draw conclusions from what happens a few times.

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May 11, 2025, 08:55:41 AM
 #9

(making your bet) on live matches most better as from the halftime out of the 90 Mins in the football game, then compare their odds in the realtime and how much long for the game to end.

Yes, I tried this and truly, a bettor can be able to win many bets on the live match, especially if the match is already half time gone but still, this strategy can mess up big time.

Quote
There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches.

Yes, that's where the twist comes in, because after waiting till half time and it becomes obvious the team that is going to win the match, the odd would drop so badly but to get more profit and you stake a high amount and luckily the team you bet against still defeat your team, you have lose you money. Another twist is that, during that time, the bookies changes the options of betting  on those live match and if you don't look closely, you can bet on an option that will still cause you to lose.

Quote
You just need not to be greedy of increasing your risks just to Increase your payout rate otherwise you'll lost it all back. So,  know when to stop.

Well, I think I was greedy but what caused me to lose all the money I won was because I picked a wrong option thinking it was the correct one. I have already won up to 8 different live bets but the last one, the team I wanted to bet on had already scored 3 goals and match is already 56 minutes gone, I was so confident and gave the team a straight win but didn't realize that the bookie has changed the option from straight win to " 2 goals extra to be scored" Without knowing it, I staked with all the money I won but I lost the game and it was then I really realized that the option I picked was not correct and if I had realized the option on time, I would not have bet on that game.

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May 11, 2025, 09:08:54 AM
 #10

My biggest ever gambling strategy of keeping long term potential success is getting on the table(making your bet) on live matches most better as from the halftime out of the 90 Mins in the football game, then compare their odds in the realtime and how much long for the game to end.
There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches.
You just need not to be greedy of increasing your risks just to Increase your payout rate otherwise you'll lost it all back. So,  know when to stop.

Pre-match bookmakers have the chance to crunch a lot of data and analyze it in many dimensions, while also comparing against a swathe of other bookmakers to confirm they have come to the right conclusion. Using historical data is pretty effective and they include a buffer as well, which accrues for times that they make the wrong outcome. In game live betting makes it much harder for bookmakers, they'll often include pauses around any big events while they recalculate which shows that they are vulnerable. The smallest bookmakers will often not allow in game betting b cause they simply don't have the speed to outwit the best gamblers.

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May 11, 2025, 10:06:39 AM
 #11

There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches.

Payouts will be smaller, the risked amount will be the same, meaning that you will need to win more bets for the same revenue, guess what the end result will be? I've seen matches lost when the team had 1.01 odds and not just once, long run unless you are familiar with both styles of play for both teams, you know who they are going to bring in the field and so on it matters little, you will end up with 10 games won at 1.1 that will just double your sum and one loss that will erase that instead of 5 games won at 2x odds and 5 losses that you could have got the same away and with the same result.

Again, nothing different than people chasing under 1.10 odds and thinking they are bulletproof.




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May 11, 2025, 10:41:22 AM
 #12

In all these years that I have been placing sports bets, I have noticed that even when placing live bets, it is necessary to analyze the game before it starts to have an idea of ​​possible scenarios that may happen during the game and when the person is watching the game, they will confirm which of the scenarios has the greatest chance of coming true. I wonder the following for your case:

Do you analyze the game before the game starts or do you just watch the game and place bets during the game?

And what are the odds values ​​you have chosen? Because in games with low odds, in the long run they are not profitable.

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May 11, 2025, 01:46:03 PM
 #13

That's what I thought. I don't know much about sports betting but it would be logical that the odds would be adjusted.
What I like to do is to wait for live betting if I wanted to bet the on the underdog. I watch the first quarter of the game and decide whether or not to place a bet based on the game stats. Odds will be adjusted, but they must have been high initially and still offer good payout. I also bet on the favorite team to win if they go down a goal or two and I'm confident they have enough to win.

Too many gamblers draw conclusions from what happens a few times.
There's no guaranteed gambling strategy to win. Just want to with different combinations and get some entertainment from it.

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May 11, 2025, 02:00:50 PM
 #14

...

But if this works for you, then you can definitely keep up that strategy

It is a strategy which still carries risks though, even if they are smaller than betting from the beginning of the match, it is still possible to lose money using OP "strategy" for sport-betting.
Also, notice how he has mentioned it is important to know when to stop and withdraw the money and how one needs not to be too greedy when comes to increasing one's stake on a team. Only because his "strategy" requires much self control and bankroll management, I am sure it is not suitable for the most of people who are engaged in sport-betting.

Still, it is good to learn about new ways to face the world of sport betting and how some people claim to be profitable by playing with the time of the match and odds.

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May 11, 2025, 02:13:39 PM
 #15

My biggest ever gambling strategy of keeping long term potential success is getting on the table(making your bet) on live matches most better as from the halftime out of the 90 Mins in the football game, then compare their odds in the realtime and how much long for the game to end.
There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches.
You just need not to be greedy of increasing your risks just to Increase your payout rate otherwise you'll lost it all back. So,  know when to stop.

I’m not betting on football but I agree on your strategy since I’m doing this on NBA. Live match gives a better analysis on the actual condition of the game especially the 2nd half.

I won a lot of bets by betting on underdog team that showing a great play during last quarter of the game. Betting in asian handicap bets is the best because most of the match normally ends in a close match.

The odds is good if you timing your bet when the lead is huge while there’s still np good run on an underdog team.


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May 11, 2025, 03:34:35 PM
 #16

There is literally no advantage to the strategy that you mentioned op. This isn't a great way to tackle live betting frankly speaking. Would be better to bet on Overs/Unders/BTTS while live betting carefully instead.

None of these strategies can ensure profit in the long-term which is why they are all risky to varying extents. Only few punters manage beating the house in the long-term with certain private/public strategies.

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May 11, 2025, 03:45:44 PM
 #17

My biggest ever gambling strategy of keeping long term potential success is getting on the table(making your bet) on live matches most better as from the halftime out of the 90 Mins in the football game, then compare their odds in the realtime and how much long for the game to end.
There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches.
You just need not to be greedy of increasing your risks just to Increase your payout rate otherwise you'll lost it all back. So,  know when to stop.
If this strategy and approach works for you, keep on doing it. But for me, I'll choose when it hasn't started yet. I think that the others also do that because sometimes we've got no time for watching the entire match and that's why we just drop our bets before the game starts.

But if you're that kind of gambler and you've got a lot of time watching them and you're monitoring the odds, much better. You really are doing something for yourself and that increases your chance of winning.

That's why if you're having better percentage of wins through this, then that's so much better and you have to stick on that no matter what others say with your strategy.

 
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May 11, 2025, 05:10:37 PM
 #18

Betting on live games has it's own risks but just like you said the chances of winning are high but the odds are mostly reduced because the games are already running.. back when I was experimenting on different strategies I tried to bet on a few live games and my goal was to pick just 1.50 odds daily, but in betting no strategy is a hundred percent guaranteed..it can work for a few days and stop working later on...The most important thing is to apply risk management

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May 11, 2025, 05:21:53 PM
 #19

There is no real house edge in sport betting except that the ball is round and everything can happen with it.
Is that so? I used to think that house edge applies to all sports especially football. But what do we say about the changing odds when the game is on? Isn't that the sportsbook doing it so that they can have an edge?

Okay so another one is when different sportsbook have different odds. Is this also like their house edge too?

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May 11, 2025, 05:55:43 PM
 #20

My biggest ever gambling strategy of keeping long term potential success is getting on the table(making your bet) on live matches most better as from the halftime out of the 90 Mins in the football game, then compare their odds in the realtime and how much long for the game to end.
There you'll have a more probability to win but due to odds dropping, the "payouts" value will be smaller, so you should be able to double your stakes while stand chances of collecting them profits gradually while maintaining to keep less (low) risks in the Short term after kickoff of the matches.
You just need not to be greedy of increasing your risks just to Increase your payout rate otherwise you'll lost it all back. So,  know when to stop.

Well, to the best of knowledge betting on live games don't also guarantee Profit neither does it reduce the risks. Picking an option after half might seem very smart but in most cases the outcome can change really fast especially when you are selecting straight wins. So in my opinion catching the house edge with this strategy isn't a sure thing. Whatever strategy you choose to apply ensure to always stake low.
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