Non-limited US dollar supply

[jaberwock]

OP, aren't you contradicting yourself. You say that many countries would get rid of their USD reserves and US government bonds, but at the same time, you say that the countries with USD reserves would collapse. That doesn't make much sense, if you ask me.
The US economy crashing would most likely cause a global economic crisis, but I'm not sure that this global crisis would happen the same way the Great Depression occurred back in the 30s. Maybe the process of dedollarization would reduce the global influence of the US economy and financial system, making all the other big economic powers more resilient to external shocks. The collapse of the US dollar would cause a small global recession for a year or two, which could be followed by a fast global economic recovery.

While I do disagree with his assessment. I assume he is saying "nations are getting rid of their USD investments because the ones who doesn't will crash", which makes sense. Both statements are true to each other, if you think USD will crash, then you sell it and get out, and the ones how don't will have trouble.

I do disagree with it though, while I believe USD doing terribly, their luck is that others are doing even worse, which means USD could crash even more, and it would still be best currency, only because others are doing a terrible job. If we keep investing into USA bonds and so forth, then we are going to see, it will do better than almost all nations. You need to realize USD is strong compared to others, not compared to its old self.

[Ever-young]

That’s when the US dollar collapses and all the countries with dollars in their reserves also collapse. It will be total Armageddon and the worst economic crisis.

That is when everyone realises THE ONLY WAY IS BITCOIN

For countries they need to fix what ever they are doing and stop depending on the US dollar as reserve some are already gradually moving their reserve and reliance off the dollar which is good but saying bitcoin is the only safe zone that won’t be accomplished with the limit supply that Bitcoin have and lot of countries who might want to depend on it, if it’s for individuals stacking to escape inflation Bitcoin is the perfect solution, but for countries thru should look for better alternative to strength their economy individual and not to allow it being controlled by the country which currency they put so much value on yet the country manage to over print and increase its supply which in turn contributes to devaluing it.

[shinratensei_]

This is exactly the reason why the market are so bullish with risky assets including bitcoin.
It seems people want to get rid of inflationary things and want to save their wealth somewhere else and bitcoin is one of the option to hedge.

Although I also wonder when will the money printing and m2 supply will stop climbing up.
At some point I'm sure it will stop, but people are already so deep into the hedge against inflation.

[viljy]

Do you know what the structure of the GDP of the United States is? 80% of these are services, not a real product. Moreover, even consultations and other small things are recorded in the services, that is, it's all air. So the real GDP is not like that at all. At the same time, the United States consumes about 40% of global GDP, meaning in real terms it consumes more than it produces. How does this happen? Very simple. The difference is provided by the main industry of the United States, the "production" of dollars.

By the way, what are Trump's tariff wars? This is a look at the same situation, but from a different angle. Trump believes that the United States is overpaying for the import of goods with too many of these "dollars out of thin air," or in other words, the debt is growing too fast.

In fact, if we consider the United States as a factory, then they moved the production facilities to China, and left the factory management (administration) in the United States. And they called this factory administration a post-industrial society. But such a society cannot exist without products from factory workshops. And then Trump appears and says that the salary for the factory workers is too high, because the factory administration already owes the workers too much (the national debt is 36 trillion) and it is necessary to reduce salaries (introduce tariffs). Naturally, nothing happened, because the factory administration does not produce anything, and it will simply die without workers' products, because it is impossible to eat office papers or even just dollars.

Okay and every Apple piece of gear is produced by the USA just not in the USA.

This fucks up accounting and measurements bigly

I picked apple as it is the most obvious one.

Oh what  percent of gear runs android?
and what percent runs Microsoft.

One can argue android is a service
One can argue windows is a service


but they are closer to a renewable fuel that the gear needs to run.

also toss in mac iOS

whats left linux

yes we could switch to linux but it would be a mess until the switch happened..

The world setup is complex.

Trumps biggest issue is he wants to simplify it to "merica" wins rest of the world loses

Yes, you're right, that's the problem. When I gave the example of a "factory" and an "administration," I was referring to the production of relatively simple consumer goods that could technically be returned to the United States within a reasonable time. However, high-tech manufacturing, such as Apple, cannot be moved to the United States within a reasonable time frame.

The production culture has been created for 20 years, and includes not only production lines, but also trained personnel and engineers. There are no such trained personnel in the United States, and the cost of training, and then the salary level, not to mention the duration of staff training, will make the cost of production very high.

[Mate2237]

The effects of the trade war is definitely going to have a negative effects on the u.s economy which will lead to the dollar losing it value on the global market so trump should look for immediate and long term plans to absorb the effect of the trade war because it's going to be having a very bad effect on the economic stability of the united states of America



In this current world we are that is becoming highly unstable with a bitting inflation rate all over the world America is not doing herself any good by proceeding with this unfortunate trade war which to me is also having it negative effects on the United States of America economy

[Yokkattannee]

The effects of the trade war is definitely going to have a negative effects on the u.s economy which will lead to the dollar losing it value on the global market so trump should look for immediate and long term plans to absorb the effect of the trade war because it's going to be having a very bad effect on the economic stability of the united states of America



In this current world we are that is becoming highly unstable with a bitting inflation rate all over the world America is not doing herself any good by proceeding with this unfortunate trade war which to me is also having it negative effects on the United States of America economy

with this trade war it can cause many sectors to be hampered especially the global economy and its effects that will occur, and the US economy is also not free from its impact including trade tariffs that trigger supply chains that will make it difficult for business people. and the dollar will also lose its value slowly especially when investors lose interest in the dollar when economic growth slows down. because export or import transactions use the dollar currency and that can be the trigger.

[pooya87]

Trump is in to default the usa bonds.

If they do default, then it would be the end of dollar and the end of USA.

The problem with living on printing trillions of dollars every season out of thin air creating debt, is that it creates addiction. They can't just magically give up such a large amount of liquidity overnight.

If they default, they won't be able to print anymore, with dollar crashing and burning and budget deficit going through the roof, you'd be lucky to see hyperinflation because it would cause ultrahyperinflation. Meaning in the morning you could fill your gas tank with $500 and by noon it would cost $5000 and by tomorrow it would be $50000. By the end of the month half the population that are already armed to teeth would have had killed each other.

[doomloop]

That’s inevitable for every fiat currency out there. If I had to take this one step further, i’d say that’s the only purpose of the fiat currencies. They simply exist to expand. If the central banks don’t print more, the system will collapse. Call it a scam, theft, call it whatever you want but that’s the harsh reality we have been living in since the 1970’s when Nixon removed the gold-dollar peg.

Why did he do it? Not because he wanted to. Frankly, he didn’t have a choice. When your opponents cheat and rip you off by printing money, you don’t have a choice but to follow their example.

Which is why people are saying that we need to find an alternative to it ; bitcoin. If we end up with a mistake, then are we just suppose to keep doing the same mistake again? We should be trying to fix it right?

If you one day mistakenly wear your left shoe on your right foot and right shoe on your left foot, would you continue to do that for 50 years? Of course not, you would take it out once you realize it's a mistake, and wear it properly. But for some reason, we made this mistake, in every nation I think, and we kept going. Which means, this "mistake" benefits some people, when it should. Who does it benefit? People who want to grow their companies marketcap, but can't if we do not print more, so the rich are benefiting from this mistake.

[Synchronice]

The endgame for the dollar is not the BRICS or whatever other stupid fiat, it’s when everyone loses trust in the whole “printing money to growth the economy” mindset and sells their US bonds because they finally realise the debt is worthless and the US won’t be able pay it.


That’s when the US dollar collapses and all the countries with dollars in their reserves also collapse. It will be total Armageddon and the worst economic crisis.

That is when everyone realises THE ONLY WAY IS BITCOIN

It's not really like we know that the US dollar is bad and people in governments don't know that it is bad and they need a time to discover it. No, it's not really like that, it's not that simple. They are directly in touch with these processes. There might be many things going on behind the scenes that we don't know. It's not really like any country does whatever it wants, you have to ask strong countries in most cases or the consequences can be extremely severe.

Trump is in to default the usa bonds.

If they do default, then it would be the end of dollar and the end of USA.

The problem with living on printing trillions of dollars every season out of thin air creating debt, is that it creates addiction. They can't just magically give up such a large amount of liquidity overnight.

If they default, they won't be able to print anymore, with dollar crashing and burning and budget deficit going through the roof, you'd be lucky to see hyperinflation because it would cause ultrahyperinflation. Meaning in the morning you could fill your gas tank with $500 and by noon it would cost $5000 and by tomorrow it would be $50000. By the end of the month half the population that are already armed to teeth would have had killed each other.

They can't magically give up on such amount of liquidity but if that happens, then the nightmare will begin. What will happen to Apple? Nvidia? Microsoft? I really wonder what will happen to FAANG companies.
By the way, chaos will take over the USA. There are so many people with guns, there will be a terrible situation in the whole country. Mass shooting, mass kills, mass robberies, mass crime. Life has never been easier or beautiful, so, our generation will face that inheritance too, a generation that grew up in a cozy environment compared to the rest.

[goro_chief]

The US keeps printing more and more money to service its debts, and monetises them in bonds. The debt burden is growing at a rate that’s not with the growth in productivity or jobs.

Now because of Trump’s tariffs, the economy is going to slow down even further, prompting the central bank to print even more money for welfare and service its debts, devaluing the currency even more.

That’s not the worst part. Since the US is causing so much economic instability and has proven time and time again that it can’t service its debts sustainably, many countries have been selling US bonds.

The endgame for the dollar is not the BRICS or whatever other stupid fiat, it’s when everyone loses trust in the whole “printing money to growth the economy” mindset and sells their US bonds because they finally realise the debt is worthless and the US won’t be able pay it.


That’s when the US dollar collapses and all the countries with dollars in their reserves also collapse. It will be total Armageddon and the worst economic crisis.

That is when everyone realises THE ONLY WAY IS BITCOIN

I've been around since the 2017 bull run and have seen so many "dollar collapse imminent" posts. It's a powerful narrative, and the logic is sound, but timing it is impossible. The system is way more resilient (or corrupt, depending on your view) than people think. What I tell newbies is this: ignore trying to predict the crash. Focus on the undeniable fact that Bitcoin is the hardest, most verifiable money ever created. Just accumulate it slowly over time, learn to self-custody, and live your life. The rest will play out when it plays out.

[Mallampue]

Dollars and other fiat currencies will not have a limit to their supply because they can never reach a point where they can be profitable in government, see almost all countries have sovereign debt, GDP each year is not enough to meet their needs and therefore they have to go into debt or print money again and again to finance development and operations, from there also emerges uncontrollable inflation because fiat currencies are really bad and do not provide value in the long run.

Economic observers must understand this, where Fiat will continue to depreciate over time due to ifnlation, while assets such as bitcoin, gold and property and others always have a significant increase that is none other than because of limited supply and also large demand.

[Hispo]

Heh... I have long realized the United States simply cannot stop printing money, because they pretty much depend on getting more debt each year in order to continue to fund the federal government in the long term. Basically, it is a country which depends on people trusting on it, that some day all creditors are going to get fully paid.

That is why I fully believe Bitcoin's biggest strength is it's programmed scarcity and it's decentralization. It is completely opposite to what the American dollar and any other FIATs have to offer to their citizens.

The only way the USA could stop acquiring debt and stop printing money like crazy, would be for them to get rid of the deficit of their federal government, which is very unlikely to happen in the short or mid term.

[pliego]

Heh... I have long realized the United States simply cannot stop printing money, because they pretty much depend on getting more debt each year in order to continue to fund the federal government in the long term. Basically, it is a country which depends on people trusting on it, that some day all creditors are going to get fully paid.

That is why I fully believe Bitcoin's biggest strength is it's programmed scarcity and it's decentralization. It is completely opposite to what the American dollar and any other FIATs have to offer to their citizens.

The only way the USA could stop acquiring debt and stop printing money like crazy, would be for them to get rid of the deficit of their federal government, which is very unlikely to happen in the short or mid term.

Pretty much this. The whole system runs on rolling debt and trust, so stopping the printer would break things fast. That’s why BTC’s fixed supply stands out so much.

[pooya87]

The only way the USA could stop acquiring debt and stop printing money like crazy, would be for them to get rid of the deficit of their federal government, which is very unlikely to happen in the short or mid term.

Something that is usually ignored is that the debt itself is also creating more debt. We are talking about borrowed money so the US government that is currently in $38.5 trillion debt has to pay interest on the "loans" they have received (technically speaking that's the interested they pay on bonds they have sold to for example Japan, China, ...). They don't have any money to pay it so they create more debt to pay the previous debt! Now before you know it the national debt is $39 trillion, then $40 trillion and so on.

That's until this Ponzi scheme crumbles catastrophically...

[avp2306]

The only way the USA could stop acquiring debt and stop printing money like crazy, would be for them to get rid of the deficit of their federal government, which is very unlikely to happen in the short or mid term.

Something that is usually ignored is that the debt itself is also creating more debt. We are talking about borrowed money so the US government that is currently in $38.5 trillion debt has to pay interest on the "loans" they have received (technically speaking that's the interested they pay on bonds they have sold to for example Japan, China, ...). They don't have any money to pay it so they create more debt to pay the previous debt! Now before you know it the national debt is $39 trillion, then $40 trillion and so on.

That's until this Ponzi scheme crumbles catastrophically...

Agree, US debt is creating more obligations to them. That interest payments aren't funded by their surplus revenue. They financed it by borrowing new funds. That's the reason why their debts climb to $38.5 trillion.

This mirrors Ponzi dynamics which they paid their old interest with new interest they get from other source.

I don't know how they can sustain this but I believe that this things will eventually collapsed in future and US might struggle with this matters.

[lornadane]

I get the concern, but “total collapse” is a bit extreme imo. The US dollar has structural advantages that other currencies don’t: global trade settlement, deep bond markets, and military/geopolitical power. Debt and money printing are real issues, yes, but loss of trust usually happens slowly, not overnight Armageddon. Bitcoin benefits from long-term erosion of trust, not instant collapse.

[uche6215]

The united states of America has to come up with immediate and long term solutions to their dept that has been on the rise. Printing more dollars is not the solution to the problem but it's only compounding the problem for the United States economy because the more you keep printing the dollar the more inflation rate will increase and this will tell on the standard of living. With the rate that the united states is going over their dept profile it will not be long when the economy will not be able to sustain the high dept, my concern is under this present administration of Donald trump the American economy is suffering because of the so called tariffs which he has introduced and these things are killing united states economy.

[lornadane]

You’re right that debt growth outpacing productivity is a red flag, and bond selling by some countries matters. But most US debt is denominated in USD and held domestically, which reduces default risk. The more realistic outcome is prolonged inflation and currency debasement, not an overnight dollar death.

[justdimin]

You’re right that debt growth outpacing productivity is a red flag, and bond selling by some countries matters. But most US debt is denominated in USD and held domestically, which reduces default risk. The more realistic outcome is prolonged inflation and currency debasement, not an overnight dollar death.

While I agree with you on this, I also think it's a very big risk as well. As long as debt keeps on growing at this pace, and I do not see how it can't, we are going to see higher and higher inflation because even the interest on debt is becoming trillions and there is no way to get that much tax while still running the country.

If USA did not spend a dime of taxes on anything but pay of debt, it would still take a decade to pay it all of, and they need the taxes to run the government so they can't do that, and not only that they are not even making a surplus, they are making more debt. So there is only printing more money to pay the debt as an option, which will make inflation a problem for long term and will not go away anytime soon.

[trendcoin]

That's the nature of all Ponzi schemes, they pay the victims until the day they catastrophically collapse. US economy and its fiat have been a Ponzi scheme for a long time now and the chances of its collapse are increasing every day.

The endgame for the dollar is not the BRICS or whatever other stupid fiat,

Hopefully BRICS countries release their currency and make it backed by something (gold, oil, gas, etc.) and break the cycle of non-stop fiat printing...

Commodity-backed monetary system would definitely be good because it prevents arbitrary money printing, but gold is a very limited asset, and oil and gas prices are highly volatile. So, using them individually is not easy either, but if they are in a portfolio, it may be possible to create more balanced pricing policies. However, this seems unlikely in the current system because developed countries print money without backing to buy value, while developing countries prefer to print money to grow their economies despite the risk of inflation. So, as societies or individuals, I feel like we are trapped...