Is the World Ready for Life After “Safe Havens”?

[d5000]

The interesting question is of course here if Bitcoin can eventually fulfill the role of a "safe haven". I think most agree currently it seems to not be one. Volatility is still to high even if it's declining over time, and above all people are still very scared of crashes and dips. The long term bullish tendency is there but it could break eventually.

The crucial idea here is to take away risks which currently impede Bitcoin's stabilization.

My take again is that it could be a safe haven if it was used slightly differently: first, it should be better distributed, and second, it should be used in less speculative ways.

Better distribution would make it unfeasible for governments to ban it or regulate it too harshly, and that takes away one of the biggest risks for Bitcoin's price. Who would dare to ban Bitcoin if let's say 15 or 20% of your population uses it, and you depend on their votes? Some countries already achieved that mark.

A really well usable 2nd layer, be it an improvement on Lightning or a sidechain, would enormously help with distribution. With on-chain activity only, there's a bottleneck for onboarding much more people, and I guess that many of the ~300 million Bitcoin users today are using it via custodial wallets or simply hodling/trading on a CEX.

Regarding speculative usage, HODL & DCA is already better than "trying to ride the bullish waves". But the best, most stabilizing kind of usage is the usage as a currency.

At the same time, I do not rule out that Bitcoin is more decentralized than it seems. It is quite possible that the Chinese Communist Party has found some secret way to secretly mine Bitcoin. North Korea and rich Arab states are probably mining Bitcoin as well.

Just according to Hashrate Index, around 20% of the mining power still comes from China. They used to hide as "German" nodes in older stats (because Germany is a hub for VPNs) but in the Hashrate Index map it seems to identify them correctly. I also think that 35% of the mining power located in the US is still not problematic, if there was a problem the consequences would be less harsh than what we already experienced in 2021's "China ban".

[serjent05]

But with bitcoin, not everything is as good as with gold. Because Bitcoin is subject to control. First of all, the price of bitcoin can be controlled by large holders. The network itself is completely controlled by the miners. That is, it is enough to control the miners to control the network. Most of the mining facilities are located in the United States, where the government will have no difficulty controlling anything, including the miners too.

Does not this apply to any asset too?  Just how you say Bitcoin price can be controlled by large holders, isn't gold can be controlled by large holders too?  About the network, it is not completely controlled by miners, they may enforce the rules but they do not create them, there is also nodes that validate transactions, the developers that decide the path of development of Bitcoin through concensus and the users that suggest ideas.  This simply shows that the Bitcoin network is not controlled by a single entity, group or individual.

Therefore, the largest countries consider bitcoin only as a situational tool that is convenient for calculations at the moment, but not as a currency of the future or an investment. However, I think that bitcoin, nevertheless, will be widely used by individuals when capital is fleeing from treasuries and other assets, because there are very few alternatives.

Does Bitcoin need to be considered by these large countries?  As far as I know, Bitcoin had been thriving even before these large countries adopted Bitcoin for profit.

Despite any shortcomings that the US dollar is experiencing presently it still remains the top currency in the world today, no doubt about that and I see it remaining in that top position despite all odds. We don't know what will happen in the far future but now and the foreseeable future gold and Bitcoin will still remain alternatives for trades and reserves. I think that it is a good thing that people and other governments have these alternatives so there won't be any panic if US dollar doesn't live up to expectations anymore. What I foresee is that the dependant on the dollar for reserve and international trade will not be what it has always been for decades, countries can confidently hold and trade gold and Bitcoin because they don't have any direct centralized control.

We all know, in any situation those who are powerful enough can make their belongings on top like the USA, since they are the strongest country,  their assets and their reserve somehow influence the ranking of their currency.  Althought it is not the most expensive, it is the strongest and most influential(dominant) in the global economy.

[Smartprofit]

The interesting question is of course here if Bitcoin can eventually fulfill the role of a "safe haven". I think most agree currently it seems to not be one. Volatility is still to high even if it's declining over time, and above all people are still very scared of crashes and dips. The long term bullish tendency is there but it could break eventually.

The crucial idea here is to take away risks which currently impede Bitcoin's stabilization.

My take again is that it could be a safe haven if it was used slightly differently: first, it should be better distributed, and second, it should be used in less speculative ways.

Better distribution would make it unfeasible for governments to ban it or regulate it too harshly, and that takes away one of the biggest risks for Bitcoin's price. Who would dare to ban Bitcoin if let's say 15 or 20% of your population uses it, and you depend on their votes? Some countries already achieved that mark.

A really well usable 2nd layer, be it an improvement on Lightning or a sidechain, would enormously help with distribution. With on-chain activity only, there's a bottleneck for onboarding much more people, and I guess that many of the ~300 million Bitcoin users today are using it via custodial wallets or simply hodling/trading on a CEX.

Regarding speculative usage, HODL & DCA is already better than "trying to ride the bullish waves". But the best, most stabilizing kind of usage is the usage as a currency.

At the same time, I do not rule out that Bitcoin is more decentralized than it seems. It is quite possible that the Chinese Communist Party has found some secret way to secretly mine Bitcoin. North Korea and rich Arab states are probably mining Bitcoin as well.

Just according to Hashrate Index, around 20% of the mining power still comes from China. They used to hide as "German" nodes in older stats (because Germany is a hub for VPNs) but in the Hashrate Index map it seems to identify them correctly. I also think that 35% of the mining power located in the US is still not problematic, if there was a problem the consequences would be less harsh than what we already experienced in 2021's "China ban".

It seems to me that Bitcoin volatility is a direct consequence of the fact that not all 8 billion people on planet Earth have realized its value and significance. When all 8 billion people realize the significance and value of the first cryptocurrency, then its price, in my opinion, will stabilize.

If 200 countries, plus all the largest world corporations, plus all the rich people (Americans, Asians, Europeans, etc.) simultaneously become Bitcoin holders and miners, then the Bitcoin network will be decentralized enough.

Yes, at the same time, Bitcoin will not be "people's money". It will not be directly used to buy essential goods. But Bitcoin will have the opportunity to become a full-fledged protocol for transferring value in virtual space, the main world reserve asset and the basis of a new financial system.

 It is quite possible that in the future, digital fiat money of states, shares and bonds of corporations, tokens giving the right to own a share in all world assets will be issued on the basis of Bitcoin.  That's why I call Bitcoin a decentralized protocol for transferring value in virtual space. If the whole world is going to be digital, there will be a need for such a protocol. Because Bitcoin is more than just money.

[justdimin]

Of course, our world and economy will still be the same, it will still be a centralized world managed and regulated by governments and central banks . They will still control us through regulations and monetary policy .  The birth of bitcoin just made the world a little more interesting because we had another asset to invest in, an alternative payment method...nothing more. Bitcoin will not change the world or create a new and more perfect world...it is all just an illusion of some investors.

It can't even help the economy and situation of a country, how can we expect it to change the world? Instead of thinking that the world will change because of bitcoin, think the opposite, bitcoin needs to change if it wants to survive in the world.

That is the unfortunate truth isn't it. The "change" we request from the bitcoin world is too much, it can't become the biggest thing we use every single day, we are going to still keep using fiat and the world will spend fiat more than anything else.

But, we also know and aware of the fact that fiat is controlled by governments and central banks, whereas bitcoin is a far better currency, which is decentralized and can't be controlled. So those two things do not really look like it makes sense, if we know bitcoin is better currency than fiat, then why are we spending fiat everyday? Why are we all not turning into bitcoin users? Not just investment, but as a currency too? That seems like a confusing situation and I do not know the reason.

[slapper]

Well, gold has never been speculative, it has been deliberately made such an asset for several decades in a row by speculators in London. They told everyone that it was the same product as, for example, coal, even worse! Because it has no uses other than jewelry... But gold has never been a commodity. Gold is money in its perfect form. Now everything is back to normal.

But with bitcoin, not everything is as good as with gold. Because Bitcoin is subject to control. First of all, the price of bitcoin can be controlled by large holders. The network itself is completely controlled by the miners. That is, it is enough to control the miners to control the network. Most of the mining facilities are located in the United States, where the government will have no difficulty controlling anything, including the miners too.

Therefore, the largest countries consider bitcoin only as a situational tool that is convenient for calculations at the moment, but not as a currency of the future or an investment. However, I think that bitcoin, nevertheless, will be widely used by individuals when capital is fleeing from treasuries and other assets, because there are very few alternatives.

It’s hard to argue against something that’s been trusted for thousands of years, no matter how much the London crowd tried to turn it into just another commodity. You’re right: gold’s value comes from deep-rooted human trust, not just from a price chart or supply/demand math. On Bitcoin, I get where your doubts come from. Control by whales, miner centralization, those are real worries, not FUD. Even the fact that so much mining shifted to the U.S. (and used to be China) does put a question mark on neutrality. Big holders, big miners, sometimes it really does look like a game for the few, not the many

But maybe that’s why, when things get messy, ordinary people still pick what gives them any chance to move value fast and far. Gold is great, but try crossing a border with it these days. Bitcoin isn’t perfect (far from it) but for a lot of us who don’t have access to traditional “safe havens”, it’s at least an option when the local system or fiat starts wobbling

I feel like Bitcoin opened people's eyes to this. I understand that the dollar is at a vulnerable time, but this has not been the first time in history that the dollar has been unable and no longer a safe haven. Now, people have seen that there can be an alternative to this, instead of continuing to hope that the traditional one will fail.
It may not be the sole reason, but Bitcoin plays a role in this. People are now looking for alternatives to traditional investments and currencies, something that people didn't really think about before, not like they were not there before, but like you said, people preferred a safe haven.

That’s a really balanced take. Like you said, the dollar has been shaky before. And every time, the system survived, sometimes even stronger. But Bitcoin did something new: it broke the illusion that you have to accept what’s handed to you. Now, anyone can at least consider alternatives, even if they don’t take the leap. I think the bigger shift isn’t about Bitcoin replace dollar, but about people realizing they can question the old defaults. For some they choose crypto, for others they choose gold, or just moving money into things they feel they understand better. It’s a small change in mindset, but once it starts, it doesn’t really go backward

That's a loud prove that the global markets evolves and do also experiences evolution where uncertainty is speculatively arbitrage and then, more better commodities is discovered.
It's really been too long the world has been depending and heartedly investing on the US treasure bonds and more likely, the hegemonic influence of the US in the global economy hasn't been satisfiable all these while but because there hadn't been a strong contender, that's why every international values were tied on the US treasures all those while.

Bitcoin has been to the global markets and had proven it potentials and in all ramifications, it potential profitablity on investment, decentralizations resisting regulations which not even the US or any authority is in charge of it and it digital form are all safe wise holding more than enough potentials against it regulatory treasures.
So at the juncture of bitcoin benchmark is why nations and institutions now massively embraces the decentralized treasures as the gold and bitcoin for it hedge against inflation since the USD has lot it value and the rest of the countries leveraging on the US decisions on the global market has brought an ease and reliance on the decentralized system.

The market is always changing, and sometimes the biggest change is just realizing there are other options. For a long time, people had no choice but to accept the US-centered system. It wasn't perfect, but it was the only game in town. Since Bitcoin and even gold have come on the scene, we no longer have to wait for the old guard to fix itself. We now have real options. And yes, the world does "arbitrage" uncertainty. People, institutions, and even countries are no longer just following old rules. Instead, they are going toward what works best for them. There is no longer a need to believe a single country or central bank. Decentralization is no longer just a tech buzzword. With more and more men realizing that "hedge" refers to more than simply financial term, that's a huge deal

[slapper]

The US elected a president who promised to make the country great but he is making them lose a hard earned greatness.Trump lacks sound global economic foundations and his knowledge is mainly formed by several conspiracy theories. He believes that the US can punish the entire world without any consequences. The worst of it is that he surrounds himself with half baked advisers who are his puppets. Most of them are scared to tell him the truth. 

The effect of his poor economic policy is the growing lack of confidence in the American economy.  Investors now see the US market as unstable and risky. Therefore, it's not strange to see investors choose other markets rather than put money in the US economy.

The dollar is still strong and dominating the global economy.  And the US is doing all within its power to carry out damage control caused by the tariff war to restore investors' confidence.  But the truth is that the US economy has received self inflicted fatal blow. These short unplanned economic policies have opened the eyes of investors to other safe havens. And I don't think it's temporary, more people will buy Bitcoin and other assets.

What we are witnessing goes beyond one individual or even one political cycle to show how much fragile "greatness" depends on top-down trust and judgment. The way the U.S. has handled recent global events, especially with tariffs and blunt force economic moves, has really exposed how much confidence is tied to leadership style and global perception

I agree: investors (and even regular people) are getting more skeptical, not just of the U.S. but of any system that acts like it is immune to consequences. When leaders stop listening to diverse advice, or run the country by impulse, the world notices. We pay for that as well. No matter the passport we carry

Indeed, the dollar still has muscle, but it is not absolutely perfect now. Every time a news about a surprise tariff or political drama, you find more individuals quietly looking for alternatives. Bitcoin, gold, even certain stocks outside the U.S. These are not protests. They’re people hedging against uncertainty and feeling let down by old guarantees

And I don’t think it’s just temporary, either. Trust does not bounce back quickly once it is broken. Though for now the dollar is still strong, the perspective has changed. People are seeing you need a Plan B (or C), and digital assets are becoming not only hype but also a backup against policy risk

These sort of shifts have been happening forever and there is no straight forward answer to risk. It is all relative and you have to ask where the money would go if it wasn't in the USA, which is increasingly being asked by investors all over the world. America, even now with Trump doing his best to crash and dismantle everything that has made the country so successful over decades, is managing to weather the storm reasonably well but he has time to keep swinging a chainsaw around for another 3.5 years. The next best option that could take such high volumes of incoming funds would be Europe, but even that has it's problems with instability and a war simmering on its border. Somewhere like China would be a logical choice but people simply don't trust an authoritarian regime and never will, nor do they particularly want such inward investment. The US will lose some investment but might still make up the majority because they are simply a productive country that pays its bills.

"Risk" has always been a gray area, and every big economy has its own baggage. The world is always looking for the least-bad option, not some perfect safe haven. Yeah, if not the U.S., then where? Europe has promise, but its own internal politics and the conflict make it far from ideal. China's great but trust is a dealbreaker. Honestly, a lot of people outside Asia simply do not feel comfortable with that approach, even if the numbers seem excellent

For whatever reason, I don't think many people are actually "leaving" the U.S. They are more likely to be spreading the risk. They avoid depending just on one basket, particularly in cases of basket’s wobbling. Although the U.S. may sustain some bruises, as long as it stays creative, pays its debts, and maintains the system running, it will continue to attract capital, even if less than before. The largest shift may not be a dramatic exit but rather a gradual change in global habits as people examine the world, consider all of its flaws, and quietly diversify

[d5000]

It seems to me that Bitcoin volatility is a direct consequence of the fact that not all 8 billion people on planet Earth have realized its value and significance. When all 8 billion people realize the significance and value of the first cryptocurrency, then its price, in my opinion, will stabilize.

I agree that "numbers matter", and of course if everybody already owned Bitcoin its price would be stable.

But I think Bitcoin can already be less volatile and much "safer" to invest with a much lower number of users. In reality, I think if all the 300 million users we have now according to estimations like Triple A's, used Bitcoin exclusively to save money for longer periods (DCA & HODL) and not to trade, then we'd already made a big leap forward. Basically the idea is to move on to a real store of value, like the (already mentioned) "Bullish Case for Bitcoin" envisioned,

I don't think everybody has to use Bitcoin. It would also currently not be possible due to the scalability limits, even if they used Lightning and Bitcoin on other blockchains. If you mean with "recognizing its value" that most people at least don't oppose Bitcoin (and call for bans or harsh regulation), then I fully agree. Also here a stable majority would already be enough, there will always be some naysayers.

Nation-state reserves are probably not that essential for lowering volatility. We could even see an increase of price swings, if the speculative users and Bitcoin influencers use every new "reserve announcement" to generate FOMO and then take profits a couple of weeks later tanking Bitcoin's price 20-30%, like we saw in the last months. On the other hand, governments with Bitcoin reserves would of course not likely ban Bitcoin, that would be a point in favour of reserves.

It is quite possible that in the future, digital fiat money of states, shares and bonds of corporations, tokens giving the right to own a share in all world assets will be issued on the basis of Bitcoin.

I think Bitcoin could indeed work as a "value anchor" for other assets -- including some fiat-like currency concepts -- once it stabilizes. But the Bitcoin blockchain doesn't need to be overcharged. Even Lightning would probably not the ideal solution for shares and bonds. As these assets are centralized due to its very nature, I don't expect many changes to the current way we trade these assets on centralized exchanges operated by financial giants.

But once Bitcoin was used as a value anchor, i.e. exchanges would add trading pairs with BTC, this probably help a lot too to establish Bitcoin as a "safe haven" asset. The more it is traded against assets of differend kinds, the more liquidity we'll experience, and liquidity also leads to stability and "safety".

[viljy]

But with bitcoin, not everything is as good as with gold. Because Bitcoin is subject to control. First of all, the price of bitcoin can be controlled by large holders. The network itself is completely controlled by the miners. That is, it is enough to control the miners to control the network. Most of the mining facilities are located in the United States, where the government will have no difficulty controlling anything, including the miners too.

Does not this apply to any asset too?  Just how you say Bitcoin price can be controlled by large holders, isn't gold can be controlled by large holders too?  

No, this does not apply to gold. The price is set by the LBMA in London. The members of the association are large banks that are not large holders of gold, the maximum they can own is "paper gold", which has already been "issued" more than in all the mines of the planet. The point is that large holders of gold do not determine its price. Therefore, the price of gold has always been suppressed by bankers, at least since the 90s of the last century.

Several States are major holders. For example, the United States allegedly holds more than 8,300 tons of gold, of which 1,200 tons belong to Germany, and even gold from other countries in smaller quantities. The gold reserves have not been audited for many decades. But the United States also uses LBMA quotes, like China or Russia or others.

Bitcoin is certainly more convenient than gold in everything, but compared to it, the system is fragile. In fact, bitcoin has an important advantage - simplicity of transactions, since it does not require physical transportation or hand-to-hand transfer.  However, this requires uninterrupted availability of electricity, miners with equipment, devices (at least a smartphone), stable Internet. That is, the functionality (and utilitarian value) of bitcoin depends on external conditions. The value of gold does not depend on anything. That's the difference. Gold can function in extreme conditions, but Bitcoin cannot. It's just that there haven't been any extreme conditions yet. But they can be.

[slapper]

I don't see it the way most people say it, I just see the world trying to benefit from investments, be it decentralised or not. The issue is that people are repositioning and misrepresenting facts, the world will not change as such as many think, it will remain like this forever, but with a little alteration and improvements.

However, a little alteration like the investment opportunities and decentralization ability will help the smart people to gain more and also evade the government excesses and control.

eople are just looking for ways to get ahead, or at least not get screwed by policies they can’t control. In a way, that’s been the story for centuries, right? A lot of the big headlines make it sound like we’re heading for total upheaval, but on the ground, most change does play out more gradually. New tech, new ways to invest, maybe less trust in old systems, but no instant revolution

Where it gets interesting, though, is that even these “little alterations”, like more access to decentralized tools, or the option to dodge some government overreach, can actually add up over time. The smart money, like you said, is just quietly adapting. Not trying to overthrow the system, but staying a step ahead, using whatever’s available. Maybe it’s Bitcoin, maybe it’s something else next decades

"Every Good thing must come to an end" and USD is losing it's trust especially after the Covid because they just started injecting money into the economy more that didn't happen in their history for decades so what they are feeling now is just the after effects of immediate printing money. Gold will be the obvious choice because it's trust and secured or that's what everyone in this world believes and now they also got bitcoin on the line which is a progress that Bitcoin achieved in no time comparing the time period of other assets.

Gold as the “default” trust anchor makes total sense. Centuries of tradition, no politics, no signatures, just something tangible people can hold. But it’s great to see Bitcoin carve out a piece of that same psychological territory in just a handful of years. If gold’s story was written by generations, Bitcoin is speedrunning the same trust game in internet time. And what’s crazier is that both are now seen by different crowds (sometimes the same crowd!) as shields against exactly the same risk: governments losing the plot. Maybe that’s just how it always goes. When the dominant player overreaches, the next thing on the edge gets pulled into the spotlight. For some it’s gold, for others, it’s code. At the end of the day, it’s about where people believe value is safest

~

Nothing is permanent. The powerful now can be deprived of power in the future. Which is why it is important that we also diversify because we never know which ones will decline in the future and which will be safe. For now assets like bitcoin specifically would be considered a safe haven as every currency in the world goes crazy.

Not completely invisible to political or economic impacts but bitcoin that is decentralized would be less impacted by other countries' decisions and economic state.

nothing really lasts forever, especially in finance and power structures. History is full of surprises, and sometimes the top dogs fall off faster than anyone expects. Bitcoin’s appeal right now, as you say, isn’t that it’s totally immune, but that it’s different. No asset is completely untouchable, but decentralization changes the game enough to offer real choices, not just for the “elite,” but for anyone with a smartphone

[slapper]

Well, the US might not be losing its "safe haven" status after all. If you argue that people, even governments and companies, are starting to look for alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin, the US has the most of them. So, if the abused fiat system crumbles down and the world order either shifts back to gold or moves to digital gold-- Bitcoin-- then the US still remains the richest, therefore the most powerful country. The country has the most gold and the most Bitcoin. The next country that has the most of these two assets doesn't even have half of what the US has.

How much of the world’s “hard money” (gold, Bitcoin) is still concentrated in the U.S.? Even when we talk about the fall of the dollar as the global backstop, it’s true that the U.S. isn’t just going to vanish from the stage. If anything, the resources for the next version of “safe haven” are already in their vaults (physical or digital)

However, does owning the most gold or Bitcoin automatically guarantee the same type of global influence that came with dollar dominance? I’m not so sure it translates one-for-one. With fiat, the U.S. set the rules for the entire global system. With gold or Bitcoin, maybe they have more, but everyone’s playing a slightly different game. Gold can’t be printed, and Bitcoin can’t be easily seized or sanctioned, at least in the way fiat assets can

Also, as you said, no one else comes close in terms of holdings, but these assets aren’t as tightly controlled as dollars in the traditional system. For example, if China, Russia, or even private citizens globally decide to “go their own way” with Bitcoin, it can’t be frozen or recalled by the U.S. Treasury. That introduces a real wildcard in terms of how much “control” even the biggest holder can exert

I'm not certain financial "safe havens" existed before or after the Great Depression.

Doomsday preppers recommend buying bars of gold and burying them in locations where they can be retrieved later.

Aside from that, there isn't much of a handbook.

Fair point. No formula, just habits and what feels less risky at any given time. Even after the Great Depression, folks went with what made sense in their own circumstances, sometimes that meant gold under the mattress, sometimes it meant trusting a new kind of institution

[dezoel]

Gold isn't a safe haven anymore, hasn't been for the past 5 years. Look at how much gold has increased in the last five years, and look at the inflation rate. Gold didn't go up as much as inflation did, which means, if you had money in gold, the value seems to be going up, but purchasing power went low.

Of course it is still not as bad as buying a brand new car or something, that drops in value insanely the moment you buy it, like you can sell it a day later and still lose money and you just keep losing money. But gold is still not enough. Bitcoin is only the realistic one that would make sense for most cases and we are going to see bunch of issues that would be not a great dela for most of the people to invest in anything other than bitcoin.

[AbuBhakar]

But lately, it’s like the “safety” label is peeling off. The U.S. has run up debt to levels that would have made any emerging country get punished by markets a decade ago. Now, all three big ratings agencies have downgraded the U.S. That’s never happened before. Interest payments are exploding. Media everywhere (not just US) are finally starting to say, “wait, maybe this isn’t temporary”

This has started when US showed that they are the most superior country but what they did backfired to them. They didn't expect some countries will not allow to be dependent to them. Even the tariff war ongoing is not helping them but just makes their country worse.

You see traders and fund managers from Japan to Germany to Brazil quietly reducing their exposure to U.S. bonds. At the same time, we’re seeing capital leaving the U.S. and moving into gold, Bitcoin, European stocks, even Indian markets. They are signs of a gradual search for new places to park value. And it’s international: look at central banks buying gold, or global companies considering Bitcoin, not because of the “hype” but because it’s not directly controlled by any single government

Countries acknowledging bitcoin as a strategic reserve is continuously growing while big institutions keeps accumulating. This means they don't only see gold and fiat to be the safest asset to have. Gold has been making all-time high many times recently.

If you are reading this from Nigeria, South East Asia, or Italy, you’ve probably already felt how quickly currencies and “safe” investments can disappoint. The US losing its “safe haven” status isn’t just about Wall Street. It changes how global trade, savings, and everyday life might work in the next decade. When traditional safe assets start losing trust, alternatives like Bitcoin and gold start looking less like “speculation” and more like insurance against government mistakes, currency wars, or runaway debt

Can you share the issue happening on Italy? I have a friend there and my sister plans to go there to work.

[viljy]

How much of the world’s “hard money” (gold, Bitcoin) is still concentrated in the U.S.? Even when we talk about the fall of the dollar as the global backstop, it’s true that the U.S. isn’t just going to vanish from the stage. If anything, the resources for the next version of “safe haven” are already in their vaults (physical or digital)

However, does owning the most gold or Bitcoin automatically guarantee the same type of global influence that came with dollar dominance? I’m not so sure it translates one-for-one. With fiat, the U.S. set the rules for the entire global system. With gold or Bitcoin, maybe they have more, but everyone’s playing a slightly different game. Gold can’t be printed, and Bitcoin can’t be easily seized or sanctioned, at least in the way fiat assets can

Also, as you said, no one else comes close in terms of holdings, but these assets aren’t as tightly controlled as dollars in the traditional system. For example, if China, Russia, or even private citizens globally decide to “go their own way” with Bitcoin, it can’t be frozen or recalled by the U.S. Treasury. That introduces a real wildcard in terms of how much “control” even the biggest holder can exert

By the way, this is not entirely true. After all, bitcoin is already divided into clean and dirty. Dirty bitcoin can be blocked (for example, by exchanges), can be rejected by controlled miners for inclusion in a transaction, and can be confiscated by special services when the owner is arrested.
The purity/dirt of bitcoin is established authoritatively by some institutions from the United States. This is the real control. The reasons for this sort of bitcoin into clean and dirty are not necessarily criminal in nature, on the contrary, these reasons are often political. And here there is a very big similarity with the control of the fiat currency.

[fuguebtc]

But, we also know and aware of the fact that fiat is controlled by governments and central banks, whereas bitcoin is a far better currency, which is decentralized and can't be controlled. So those two things do not really look like it makes sense, if we know bitcoin is better currency than fiat, then why are we spending fiat everyday? Why are we all not turning into bitcoin users? Not just investment, but as a currency too? That seems like a confusing situation and I do not know the reason.

Because as I said, this world is still controlled and managed by governments and central banks, and they need to ensure their interests above all else.

Bitcoin seems to be better than fiat in many ways and it is good for us, but not good for governments and banks. Because using a currency that is not controlled by the government will make it very difficult for them to control the people, while central banks will have difficulty regulating the economy. Their power will be weakened and the economy will also become worse because of ineffective management. So it is not too difficult to understand that although bitcoin is good , it can never replace the role of fiat. Governments and central banks will do everything they can to prevent that from happening.

[kryptqnick]

The trend is becoming more and more clear: the growing U.S. debt, along with a high level of volatility of the Trump Administration's political and economic decisions, make relying on the US in the world economy riskier than before. Of course, the US is still #1 Economy by GDP, the USD is still #1 foreign reserve currency, and the US is at least in the top-5 of the countries by political influence in the world.

If this continues, the structure of global reserves may slowly change. More money could move into assets like gold and, actually, like Bitcoin, which are not directly dependent on any particular state (country).

[l3pox]

I’ve been watching what’s happening not just with the US, but globally, and it seems like the old ideas about where to keep your wealth “safe” just aren’t working the way they used to

For decades, most (whether in Asia, Europe, Africa, or the Americas) basically agreed that U.S. Treasuries were the global backup plan. If anything got shaky, you ran to the dollar and hoped for stability. But lately, it’s like the “safety” label is peeling off. The U.S. has run up debt to levels that would have made any emerging country get punished by markets a decade ago. Now, all three big ratings agencies have downgraded the U.S. That’s never happened before. Interest payments are exploding. Media everywhere (not just US) are finally starting to say, “wait, maybe this isn’t temporary”

You see traders and fund managers from Japan to Germany to Brazil quietly reducing their exposure to U.S. bonds. At the same time, we’re seeing capital leaving the U.S. and moving into gold, Bitcoin, European stocks, even Indian markets. They are signs of a gradual search for new places to park value. And it’s international: look at central banks buying gold, or global companies considering Bitcoin, not because of the “hype” but because it’s not directly controlled by any single government

If you are reading this from Nigeria, South East Asia, or Italy, you’ve probably already felt how quickly currencies and “safe” investments can disappoint. The US losing its “safe haven” status isn’t just about Wall Street. It changes how global trade, savings, and everyday life might work in the next decade. When traditional safe assets start losing trust, alternatives like Bitcoin and gold start looking less like “speculation” and more like insurance against government mistakes, currency wars, or runaway debt

really good post
we are witnessing this paradigm shift unfold in real time
bitcoin will keep rising and fiat will keep sinking, this is not so hard to predict

have you seen the news this week? Pakistan started investing in bitcoin as a reserve asset with no plans to sell, this will be the trend and will happen with all countries at some point

[justdimin]

this world is still controlled and managed by governments and central banks, and they need to ensure their interests above all else.

Bitcoin seems to be better than fiat in many ways and it is good for us, but not good for governments and banks. Because using a currency that is not controlled by the government will make it very difficult for them to control the people, while central banks will have difficulty regulating the economy. Their power will be weakened and the economy will also become worse because of ineffective management. So it is not too difficult to understand that although bitcoin is good , it can never replace the role of fiat. Governments and central banks will do everything they can to prevent that from happening.

Isn't that weird? I mean shouldn't governments be working towards helping its own people. Government and the governed are not different types, the governed, becomes the government, when elected, it's so simple. We should see politicians be working towards making the nation a better place for all, but instead we see them making it better for themselves.

Fiat is terrible and because of that bitcoin ends up being a lot better so we should not care what governments are saying and we should be considering how to make better judgement for ourselves. If governments make their own decision then they do, and we should be consider how we could be making money based on what we do, and that's more important. If they care for themselves, we care for ourselves.

[Sticky Bomb]

I’ve been watching what’s happening not just with the US, but globally, and it seems like the old ideas about where to keep your wealth “safe” just aren’t working the way they used to

For decades, most (whether in Asia, Europe, Africa, or the Americas) basically agreed that U.S. Treasuries were the global backup plan. If anything got shaky, you ran to the dollar and hoped for stability. But lately, it’s like the “safety” label is peeling off. The U.S. has run up debt to levels that would have made any emerging country get punished by markets a decade ago. Now, all three big ratings agencies have downgraded the U.S. That’s never happened before. Interest payments are exploding. Media everywhere (not just US) are finally starting to say, “wait, maybe this isn’t temporary”

You see traders and fund managers from Japan to Germany to Brazil quietly reducing their exposure to U.S. bonds. At the same time, we’re seeing capital leaving the U.S. and moving into gold, Bitcoin, European stocks, even Indian markets. They are signs of a gradual search for new places to park value. And it’s international: look at central banks buying gold, or global companies considering Bitcoin, not because of the “hype” but because it’s not directly controlled by any single government

If you are reading this from Nigeria, South East Asia, or Italy, you’ve probably already felt how quickly currencies and “safe” investments can disappoint. The US losing its “safe haven” status isn’t just about Wall Street. It changes how global trade, savings, and everyday life might work in the next decade. When traditional safe assets start losing trust, alternatives like Bitcoin and gold start looking less like “speculation” and more like insurance against government mistakes, currency wars, or runaway debt

Yeah, everything is changing recently and smart people are adjusting to what really matters.

Currently the hype around American dollar is down and reality is upon us. There's no safe heaven in traditional assets anymore and people, including myself are drifting to what holds actual value now.

I've chosen Bitcoin and my small business that gives me good ROI,  things you met that was trusted has little value now, you're left to use your brain and work with what has actual and current value, else you risk being sunk with the ship of former beliefs.

[ShowOff]

this world is still controlled and managed by governments and central banks, and they need to ensure their interests above all else.

Bitcoin seems to be better than fiat in many ways and it is good for us, but not good for governments and banks. Because using a currency that is not controlled by the government will make it very difficult for them to control the people, while central banks will have difficulty regulating the economy. Their power will be weakened and the economy will also become worse because of ineffective management. So it is not too difficult to understand that although bitcoin is good , it can never replace the role of fiat. Governments and central banks will do everything they can to prevent that from happening.

Isn't that weird? I mean shouldn't governments be working towards helping its own people. Government and the governed are not different types, the governed, becomes the government, when elected, it's so simple. We should see politicians be working towards making the nation a better place for all, but instead we see them making it better for themselves.

Fiat is terrible and because of that bitcoin ends up being a lot better so we should not care what governments are saying and we should be considering how to make better judgement for ourselves. If governments make their own decision then they do, and we should be consider how we could be making money based on what we do, and that's more important. If they care for themselves, we care for ourselves.

Politicians are actually smart people, they join the Government to gain power, and use it as a means to gain personal gain. It is true, they should put the interests of the people above their own interests, but only almost no one wants to do it, therefore it is better to renew our perspective on them and all their policies.

Of course Bitcoin is now better than Fiat, and it is proven that many countries have adopted it, as time goes by I believe there will be more countries following suit. Let the Government carry out their plans, and we do what is best for ourselves, that's how it works now.

[Smartprofit]

But with bitcoin, not everything is as good as with gold. Because Bitcoin is subject to control. First of all, the price of bitcoin can be controlled by large holders. The network itself is completely controlled by the miners. That is, it is enough to control the miners to control the network. Most of the mining facilities are located in the United States, where the government will have no difficulty controlling anything, including the miners too.

Does not this apply to any asset too?  Just how you say Bitcoin price can be controlled by large holders, isn't gold can be controlled by large holders too?  

No, this does not apply to gold. The price is set by the LBMA in London. The members of the association are large banks that are not large holders of gold, the maximum they can own is "paper gold", which has already been "issued" more than in all the mines of the planet. The point is that large holders of gold do not determine its price. Therefore, the price of gold has always been suppressed by bankers, at least since the 90s of the last century.

Several States are major holders. For example, the United States allegedly holds more than 8,300 tons of gold, of which 1,200 tons belong to Germany, and even gold from other countries in smaller quantities. The gold reserves have not been audited for many decades. But the United States also uses LBMA quotes, like China or Russia or others.

Bitcoin is certainly more convenient than gold in everything, but compared to it, the system is fragile. In fact, bitcoin has an important advantage - simplicity of transactions, since it does not require physical transportation or hand-to-hand transfer.  However, this requires uninterrupted availability of electricity, miners with equipment, devices (at least a smartphone), stable Internet. That is, the functionality (and utilitarian value) of bitcoin depends on external conditions. The value of gold does not depend on anything. That's the difference. Gold can function in extreme conditions, but Bitcoin cannot. It's just that there haven't been any extreme conditions yet. But they can be.

Of course, in theory, we may face extreme situations in the future (such as no Internet, no electricity, etc.).

However, it should be noted that even during modern wars, electricity and the Internet usually do not disappear completely. Human civilization is so dependent on the Internet and electricity that people repeatedly (and very quickly) restore these important communication and life support systems.

From this we can conclude that if we (in practice) encounter a situation of critical long-term damage to systems such as electricity and the Internet, we will have much more serious problems than the inability to use Bitcoin.

And even gold will be of little interest to us during this period of time. Medicines, food, fuel and ammunition will become currency.