ok, so I've changed to using high-low averages -instead of closing price- for the oscillator. It looks more accurate now, although almost indistinguishable at first glance.
using these new numbers and the fact that it is a percentage based oscillator, I've come up with the target %50 retracement of 0.1679. and this assumes that we are in part B of the correction wave from the peak back in June.
this target price will, of course, move as the 2
month moving average influences the formula which you can derive a price target from this number. However, using the current moving average the 'minimum' target price is 3.6138.
As this number is below the current price, I think that it means the 'true' target price (that is the one based on the future moving average that we just don't know the value of yet) is highly influenced by the moving average.
just 'eyeballing it', it's clear that the 2
month sma's slope is not yet even positive. if this sma doesn't start to rise soon then we'd be in danger of reaching the peak of part B without a significantly higher price than what we currently have.
EDIT: meant month instead of week
Also, 'just eyeballing it' was a mistake, the 2 month sma's slope is positive.