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smickles (OP)
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December 23, 2011, 02:14:48 AM |
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So, In order to attempt an understanding of Elliot wave theory, I decided to create an oscillator.  I feel like I've done ok so far and I would like some opinions on it. The dark green bands are breakout bands, The light blue lines are 90% pullback lines, If I'm on the right track, I think it shows the 5 part impulse wave to the peak and the first two parts of the corrective wave. But I dunno, I've only really started looking into it today. |
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"Bitcoin: mining our own business since 2009" -- Pieter Wuille
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smickles (OP)
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December 23, 2011, 01:16:45 PM |
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aw, no one? Did I really get it wrong or something?
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notme
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December 23, 2011, 01:44:39 PM |
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I just don't understand how it is useful. Then again, I don't really get Elliot waves either.
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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December 23, 2011, 01:49:42 PM |
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I just don't understand how it is useful. Then again, I don't really get Elliot waves either.
Ditto. If it had a white background it would look more Christmassy. |
Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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smickles (OP)
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December 23, 2011, 01:57:21 PM |
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I just don't understand how it is useful. Then again, I don't really get Elliot waves either.
Well, I was hoping to get someone who believes they know a thing or two about Elliot waves. But from what I understand, the chart I posted basically show that the market is somewhere near the middle of the correction from the peak, or at the (beginning of the) middle part of a powerful upswing after the correction from the peak. The oscillator is supposed to assist in identifying the beginning and end of the waves. |
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zby
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December 23, 2011, 02:40:24 PM |
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How does that work and why is it called oscillator?
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smickles (OP)
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December 23, 2011, 02:54:32 PM |
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How does that work and why is it called oscillator?
I'm using 'oscillator' in the sense that it produces a signal that alternates above and below a center line. The way it works: the main thing to look at are the bars. You can think of the bars as forming mountains, a set above zero and a set below zero. from a positive peak to a negative peak (or positive valley for weaker movements) indicates a wave down. they are colored green for a positive slope, red for a neg. slope to help identify peaks and valleys. the breakout bands (dark green) help identify strong movements. the pullback lines are like how far 'down' the next valley should be from the peak to indicate a coming strong movement. Did I answer your question well? |
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zby
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December 23, 2011, 05:26:57 PM |
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How does that work and why is it called oscillator?
I'm using 'oscillator' in the sense that it produces a signal that alternates above and below a center line. The way it works: the main thing to look at are the bars. You can think of the bars as forming mountains, a set above zero and a set below zero. from a positive peak to a negative peak (or positive valley for weaker movements) indicates a wave down. they are colored green for a positive slope, red for a neg. slope to help identify peaks and valleys. the breakout bands (dark green) help identify strong movements. the pullback lines are like how far 'down' the next valley should be from the peak to indicate a coming strong movement. Did I answer your question well? Hmm - maybe you could write a formula in mathematical notation or something? |
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smickles (OP)
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December 23, 2011, 06:02:23 PM |
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<snip>
Hmm - maybe you could write a formula in mathematical notation or something?
On a weekly chart, this is my first draft: The oscillator: (SMA4 - SMA8) / SMA8 the breakout bands: average of the past 8 highest highs (or lowest lows, for the lower band) over the past 8 periods only counting the positive (or negative, for the lower band) numbers pullback lines: 0.1 * highest high (or lowest low, for the lower line) over the past 8 periods only counting the positive (or negative, for the lower line) numbers |
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ineededausername
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December 23, 2011, 08:49:24 PM |
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If this indicator is right, this rally is far from over, and by the time it ends, we'll have at least two digits. It just crossed 0, and will probably take a while to reach the maximum height of the last three "hills."
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(BFL)^2 < 0
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smickles (OP)
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December 23, 2011, 10:45:55 PM |
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If this indicator is right, this rally is far from over, and by the time it ends, we'll have at least two digits. It just crossed 0, and will probably take a while to reach the maximum height of the last three "hills."
As I read it, I think it indicates a target price of 6.19 as the high of wave 3. Beyond that (wave 4 and 5) I have so little clue I won't even venture such a 'wild' guess as I have with 6.19. But, again, i'm new at this. |
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NothinG
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December 24, 2011, 12:46:35 AM |
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I don't oscillat you mean there, but it looks like Christmas.
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smickles (OP)
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December 24, 2011, 03:06:16 AM |
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If this indicator is right, this rally is far from over, and by the time it ends, we'll have at least two digits. It just crossed 0, and will probably take a while to reach the maximum height of the last three "hills."
Also, i'd like to point out that if this is actually indicating that we are in the B wave of the correction from the peak, we would expect this crossover to positive on the oscillator to last only a short time -2 to 4 weeks- and then continue down below 2 $/btc. |
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RandyFolds
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December 24, 2011, 03:16:24 AM |
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Why does every friggin' TA graph have to be red and green. I can't see shit.
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smickles (OP)
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December 24, 2011, 03:53:50 AM |
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Why does every friggin' TA graph have to be red and green. I can't see shit.
what do you want it to be, I think I can change it |
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RandyFolds
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December 24, 2011, 08:04:39 AM |
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Red and green are always poor choices, despite their symbolism in the financial world. It does make it hard to pick other colors. A large percentage of the male population is red/green colorblind. It's one of those things to watch out for when you are presenting things...kind of like yellow text on a white background.
TL;DR - I'm jealous cause I'm colorblind.
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Sannyasi
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December 24, 2011, 09:21:34 AM
Last edit: December 24, 2011, 09:39:29 AM by Sannyasi |
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Red and green are always poor choices, despite their symbolism in the financial world. It does make it hard to pick other colors. A large percentage of the male population is red/green colorblind. It's one of those things to watch out for when you are presenting things...kind of like yellow text on a white background.
TL;DR - I'm jealous cause I'm colorblind.
I'd be happy to photoshop it into any alternative colors of your choice or greyscale  I'm about to get some sleep though, so it won't be immediate. EDIT: I decided to do a quick greyscale conversion before i got to bed - the darker colors are red and the lighter are green, the squiggly lines are also green. hope this helps   i'd be happy to help with similar images that might be tough to see correctly if you pm me a link to the pic |
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smickles (OP)
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December 24, 2011, 02:29:41 PM |
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Red and green are always poor choices, despite their symbolism in the financial world. It does make it hard to pick other colors. A large percentage of the male population is red/green colorblind. It's one of those things to watch out for when you are presenting things...kind of like yellow text on a white background.
TL;DR - I'm jealous cause I'm colorblind.
Although I prefer red and green for the bars (for the 'green means go', 'stop on red' that has been drilled into my mind), the color on the bars doesn't really matter, it's their height that's important. So it's really no good to use those colors if it makes it difficult for a significant portion of the community to participate in the conversation. If we can come to some kind of consensus about a standard color pallet, I'm willing to use it on all my charts (assuming I post any more, of course  ). |
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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December 24, 2011, 02:56:28 PM |
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Red and green are always poor choices, despite their symbolism in the financial world. It does make it hard to pick other colors. A large percentage of the male population is red/green colorblind. It's one of those things to watch out for when you are presenting things...kind of like yellow text on a white background.
TL;DR - I'm jealous cause I'm colorblind.
There is something poetic about Bitcoin being the red/green currency that so many people don't see because they are blinded by disinformation. |
Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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smickles (OP)
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December 24, 2011, 05:57:45 PM
Last edit: December 24, 2011, 06:27:12 PM by smickles |
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ok, so I've changed to using high-low averages -instead of closing price- for the oscillator. It looks more accurate now, although almost indistinguishable at first glance. using these new numbers and the fact that it is a percentage based oscillator, I've come up with the target %50 retracement of 0.1679. and this assumes that we are in part B of the correction wave from the peak back in June. this target price will, of course, move as the 2 week month moving average influences the formula which you can derive a price target from this number. However, using the current moving average the 'minimum' target price is 3.6138. As this number is below the current price, I think that it means the 'true' target price (that is the one based on the future moving average that we just don't know the value of yet) is highly influenced by the moving average. just 'eyeballing it', it's clear that the 2 weekmonth sma's slope is not yet even positive. if this sma doesn't start to rise soon then we'd be in danger of reaching the peak of part B without a significantly higher price than what we currently have.  EDIT: meant month instead of week |
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