Are You Fooled by Randomness?

[Julien_Olynpic]

At one time, Nassim Taleb wrote a famous book, Fooled by Randomness, which became widely known. What is this book about? First of all, it is about randomness. It is about the fact that the role of randomness and chance in our lives is underestimated and that most success stories are actually survivorship bias. Most of the examples in this book are not related to gambling, but they can be easily adapted. For example, the famous illustration about a million monkeys. Let's rework it for sports betting, for example.

Let's imagine a million monkeys betting on sports. None of them analyze sports games, they just bet like crazy. In a year, half of the monkeys will be broke, but the other half will be doing well. In another year, half of the monkeys will win again, and the other half will suffer losses. In 10 years, there will be a thousand monkeys who have not lost money all this time, and in another 10 years, at the top of this pyramid, there will be a monkey who has always been lucky. Of course, journalists will start to find out what the winning monkey did right. Maybe he got up earlier? Ate more bananas? Surely, a simple monkey cannot always achieve success just like that! And sooner or later, journalists will definitely find an answer…

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

[Tungbulu]

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

The book Fooled by Randomness explores just how often people underestimates the role of chances and of course randomness and we see this all the time in gambling, especially when it comes comes to achieving success. The writer is more interested in the argument that so many success stories we know today can actually be attributed to luck and chances. And your scenario of a million monkeys betting on sports also gives quite a perfect illustration of this concept too.

Now judging from the story, it's crystal clear that the success of those monkeys, in actually reality, were simply as a result of luck and chances. And coming down to the world of gambling today, it's pretty obvious that most success stories we hear about in gambling today are mostly just a product of luck and chances, because I don't believe anyone has the potential to accurately predict the outcome of games repeatedly, even if your skills enabled you to win more often, there'll always be times that you'll lose, and that's a reminder that your skills only increases your chances of winning.

[_act_]

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

I do not know about the book but I know about gambling. If 100 people are gambling or 100 monkeys are gambling on gambling sites, know that none of them will be successful if they based their success on success from gambling. Or if anyone of them will be successful, only those that hit jackpot will be successful. Either none or just one or two among them will be successful while the rest will all be losing. 1 or 2 people from 100 people is still a big number if compared to how gambling is right now in the world.

[lovesmayfamilis]

Simply put, luck in gambling is being in the right place at the right time. Sometimes this can be attributed to intuition, in addition to the absence of fuss and confidence that everything will go as it should. But I would not confidently talk about the results of bets without a certain level of knowledge, and this skill can no longer be called an accident.

[jcojci]

Do you not think that in the first year where half of the monkey broke will not replace by another half monkey? I don't think that there is no monkey will come and follow the other to bet. Even if there is many more lose the money, that will not stop many new will gambling.

I am not success in sports betting (yet ) but I don't think that I was fooled by chances. If those monkey that broke can think to reduce their gambling activity, they will have a chance to have money. But the reality will say that they will not stop even if they lose much money.

[Derekfunds]

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

I do not know about the book but I know about gambling. If 100 people are gambling or 100 monkeys are gambling on gambling sites, know that none of them will be successful if they based their success on success from gambling. Or if anyone of them will be successful, only those that hit jackpot will be successful. Either none or just one or two among them will be successful while the rest will all be losing. 1 or 2 people from 100 people is still a big number if compared to how gambling is right now in the world.

Exactly, the wrong thing to do is putting all hope in gambling and sometimes I think the moment one said he or she wants to make millions or get rich in gambling that is the moment the hard luck will start and because of the decision one took, even when they are losing they won't be able to recognize that they are doing it all wrong. Gambling is a game of luck and so one shouldn't boast about it or make it look like they can beat it ( win), people who becomes successful in gambling never for one day boast or have this thought that, they must make it from gambling but it just happened to them so if 100 people have this mindset they might all probably lose unless few has luck.

[Hispo]

Simply put, luck in gambling is being in the right place at the right time. Sometimes this can be attributed to intuition, in addition to the absence of fuss and confidence that everything will go as it should. But I would not confidently talk about the results of bets without a certain level of knowledge, and this skill can no longer be called an accident.

Though, I think the book OP is talking about explores chances and randomness in the context on how it easily affects our daily life and how much influence it has on us without us being aware of it.
Someone who is betting consistently and manages to pocket some money could be either be good at analyzing matches or simply being the holder of an extraordinary luck (which will eventually run out, as always do).

Also, people usually associate the word "accident" with negative connotations, when there can be "positive" accidents. I have seen more than one of those in online gambling.

[Dunamisx]

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

This could be a good example to use for discussing more about randomness, because it's all about opportunities and the chances we have in getting along any of these as we gamble, not that we are being deceived, denied or recented for any reason, but as we gambles, we have the understanding of what is at stake, which is the opportunity to come for us either as a winning type or the one we may fall in the category of those that looses, but it's all about what mentality we had towards gambling and how we have applied such to gamble for our own interests.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

The randomness in gambling winning and losing can easily fool players, sometimes you are not really winning more than the casino but just that anytime you succeed in winning big, you make sure to make good use of the money like to invest it and then you start again, while you experience losses for quite some times, you luckily win big again and you also decided to put the money into something more profitable than gambling and by the time you are getting good returns from the places you put the money into, other gambler (your friends) will think you are doing well through gambling without them knowing that you actually invested into something else with the money you won from gambling.

[danherbias07]

This is why I only believe in the RTP when it comes to slots and casino games. I don't believe a x5000 multiplier was randomly given to a gambler. There's a high chance that it is given because he lost way too much, and it is not RNG but more of an RTP. They are giving it back to urge a gambler to play more and use what he won to gamble again.

Let's face the facts. Once a gambler wins a high multiplier, right next to it is the consecutive losing streaks until all the winnings are dried out. I have a different opinion on sports betting, I think it still depends on the knowledge of the bettor.

[AVE5]

It's not stamped that those monkeys who had been winning is guaranteed that they're still the ones that's to be among those winning in the long term.
Since gambling is a game of chance and luck, there's always an irregularity resultants by the conclusions of every games where a certain percentage of those who had been winning will be replaced to those who had lost. Meanwhile there're still certain people who're hard luck players gambling haven't been favoured all the while of their experience while quite sure that no gamblers can always win continuously in the long term.

[Agbamoni]

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

The book Fooled by Randomness explores just how often people underestimates the role of chances and of course randomness and we see this all the time in gambling, especially when it comes comes to achieving success. The writer is more interested in the argument that so many success stories we know today can actually be attributed to luck and chances. And your scenario of a million monkeys betting on sports also gives quite a perfect illustration of this concept too.

This is my first time hearing of this book, of course it picks my interest, which is why I will make out time to read it later. But from the summary you gave it seems the OP chances understood chances and luck. Both are similar but they mean different things.

If you relate it to gambler, we will definitely see that luck can come to anyone whether he is prepared or not. You can pick a random number and get it right, but if you make necessary preparation then you have chances not luck.

[giammangiato]

At one time, Nassim Taleb wrote a famous book, Fooled by Randomness, which became widely known. What is this book about? First of all, it is about randomness. It is about the fact that the role of randomness and chance in our lives is underestimated and that most success stories are actually survivorship bias. Most of the examples in this book are not related to gambling, but they can be easily adapted. For example, the famous illustration about a million monkeys. Let's rework it for sports betting, for example.

Let's imagine a million monkeys betting on sports. None of them analyze sports games, they just bet like crazy. In a year, half of the monkeys will be broke, but the other half will be doing well. In another year, half of the monkeys will win again, and the other half will suffer losses. In 10 years, there will be a thousand monkeys who have not lost money all this time, and in another 10 years, at the top of this pyramid, there will be a monkey who has always been lucky. Of course, journalists will start to find out what the winning monkey did right. Maybe he got up earlier? Ate more bananas? Surely, a simple monkey cannot always achieve success just like that! And sooner or later, journalists will definitely find an answer…

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

I didn't know this book and you've certainly piqued my curiosity, the example of the monkeys is perfectly representative of reality.
There is no professional bettor, it's definitely all based on probability and a pinch of luck.
Statistically it's difficult to bet 10 times in a row, but it's not impossible.
Just like the game of roulette, on probability calculations the zero should come out after 70-100 throws, in reality it could come out at any time.
There is no success in betting, you can reduce the calculation of the probability of winning in matches, studying the preparation of the team, the psychology of the players, the technique of the coach, but you will never be certain of victory or loss in a given match.

[kotajikikox]

Of course, journalists will start to find out what the winning monkey did right. Maybe he got up earlier? Ate more bananas? Surely, a simple monkey cannot always achieve success just like that! And sooner or later, journalists will definitely find an answer…

Will they? If it is all random, they might realize at some point that there is no real pattern here. The winners win despite whatever they do. Regardless whether they follow the other monkeys or not.

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

If you win repeatedly with an explainable strategy behind it then it is not just a fallacy. You won through luck not skill. Surely you can figure out if you had won through luck or skill on your own.

[Agbe]

I don't see any thing successful about gambling because gambling itself is a business that favors only the casino so if anyone gets a winning on gambling it should not be confused about being successful in gambling gambling favors no body because looking at the long run you will find out that you are losing the more so you can't say that you are gaining from gambling to be talking about being successful in gambling anyone who wins huge in gambling is an act of luck and chance so should not be confused with being successful

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Let's imagine a million monkeys betting on sports. None of them analyze sports games, they just bet like crazy. In a year, half of the monkeys will be broke, but the other half will be doing well. In another year, half of the monkeys will win again, and the other half will suffer losses. In 10 years, there will be a thousand monkeys who have not lost money all this time, and in another 10 years, at the top of this pyramid, there will be a monkey who has always been lucky. Of course, journalists will start to find out what the winning monkey did right. Maybe he got up earlier? Ate more bananas? Surely, a simple monkey cannot always achieve success just like that! And sooner or later, journalists will definitely find an answer…

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

This is a very interesting read and I would have loved to get hold of this book and read it, I definitely will get out there, look for this book and buy it and read it for myself, I sense there is a lot of lessons to learn from the book.

And now, back to what is being discussed, I am actually a bit confused by the question or should I say with your choice of words, but anyways, I will try to answer in the best way I can..
First, let me say that I've not been successful with sports betting and gambling in general, but we are made to believe that being successful in gambling is mainly based on chances, who's the most lucky, and if we look at this, it seems like it's the truth, most especially with games built in a way where gamblers have to completely rely on luck to win, how then can we say we are being fooled by chance in such a circumstance?

[Churchillvv]

A thousand percent relatable, there is absolutely 100% chance that one or more person will always be lucky to win every single time or win more than everyone else ever did hence it's more like the book is generally focused on life.

Some people are just more luckier than others, the chances they get is far greater than the way others get it hence the problem with humans is that they do not believe that chances of this nature can occur hence they will want to find out the root to your luck or favour.

Put in casinos or gambling if someone becomes so favourable in gambling exactly the way the scientists tried to figure out what the successful monkey did that's how humans are going to be furious why you are succeeding when others are lossing hence the cases of attack that we talk about might even set in.

Some people are just more lucky, more favoured than others it's simple nature but guys then to disagree with that, some people don't need to work hard to be successful just need to try and boom they are.

[swogerino]

At one time, Nassim Taleb wrote a famous book, Fooled by Randomness, which became widely known. What is this book about? First of all, it is about randomness. It is about the fact that the role of randomness and chance in our lives is underestimated and that most success stories are actually survivorship bias. Most of the examples in this book are not related to gambling, but they can be easily adapted. For example, the famous illustration about a million monkeys. Let's rework it for sports betting, for example.

Let's imagine a million monkeys betting on sports. None of them analyze sports games, they just bet like crazy. In a year, half of the monkeys will be broke, but the other half will be doing well. In another year, half of the monkeys will win again, and the other half will suffer losses. In 10 years, there will be a thousand monkeys who have not lost money all this time, and in another 10 years, at the top of this pyramid, there will be a monkey who has always been lucky. Of course, journalists will start to find out what the winning monkey did right. Maybe he got up earlier? Ate more bananas? Surely, a simple monkey cannot always achieve success just like that! And sooner or later, journalists will definitely find an answer…

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

The book is great but it is geared more toward mathematical probabilities and I don't see them how they fit in gambling. Trust me that the example of monkeys will be like that, in 10 years all of them should be broke as in the long run I don't know anyone to be a gambling survivor for this long so unfortunately for me it does not fit well here. The way I see it fit somewhere is in slot machines, let's suppose all these 1 million monkeys play a slot machine, let's say Gate of Olympus Super Scatter, now out of 1 million monkeys I am sure no more than 100 of them will hit the max win while playing in the same time frame, and in the long run after 6 months to 1 year they will all be broke if they continue playing. This I want to say that there is no real fit from that book which is a masterpiece of mathematics and probability to the gambling we do every day.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

At one time, Nassim Taleb wrote a famous book, Fooled by Randomness, which became widely known. What is this book about? First of all, it is about randomness. It is about the fact that the role of randomness and chance in our lives is underestimated and that most success stories are actually survivorship bias. Most of the examples in this book are not related to gambling, but they can be easily adapted. For example, the famous illustration about a million monkeys. Let's rework it for sports betting, for example.

Let's imagine a million monkeys betting on sports. None of them analyze sports games, they just bet like crazy. In a year, half of the monkeys will be broke, but the other half will be doing well. In another year, half of the monkeys will win again, and the other half will suffer losses. In 10 years, there will be a thousand monkeys who have not lost money all this time, and in another 10 years, at the top of this pyramid, there will be a monkey who has always been lucky. Of course, journalists will start to find out what the winning monkey did right. Maybe he got up earlier? Ate more bananas? Surely, a simple monkey cannot always achieve success just like that! And sooner or later, journalists will definitely find an answer…

Now let's find out: if you are successful in sports betting or other types of gambling (as you think), then are you not fooled by chance, as Nassim Taleb writes? Is your success a survivor's fallacy?

Gambling is always a series of robbing Peter to pay Paul and vice versa. I would agree too your analogy to some extent, yet I find it hard to believe that someone can handle for even a year and not lose, constantly winning as you illustrated here in my in bolded part. I'm yet to see someone who's that lucky in gambling. So that part of the principle is null and void in gambling. Just as Peter is robbed to pay Paul, all things being equal, in no distant time Paul must be robbed to pay Peter.

The person who's robbed the less gets a net profit, while the latter gets a net loss.

[Slow death]

If this monkey example was about gambling, then statistics would show that over 90% of the monkeys would be losing money and within a few months they would be bankrupt. Probably only 3% or less would have made a profit, but if they continued playing they would also have gone bankrupt.

Gambling is not a way to make a profit, either in the short or long term. Even these guys who consider themselves professional gamblers are losing in the long term, that's why they create telegram channels and charge money for the courses they give. They don't live off gambling, they live off courses, telegram channels, streaming channels.