Unemployment rate may rise in 18 months, Fed pivot?

[Wind_FURY]

The next report for the labor market in the United States will be in December 16. I personally believe that it's going to be the first important data release for the U.S. economy before the FOMC at the and of next month. A weaker jobs report could force Jerome Powell to cut rates further even if CPI is "sticky".

[Iranus]

The next report for the labor market in the United States will be in December 16. I personally believe that it's going to be the first important data release for the U.S. economy before the FOMC at the and of next month. A weaker jobs report could force Jerome Powell to cut rates further even if CPI is "sticky".

The problem is that the BLS has confirmed it will not release its October jobs report due to insufficient data collection. Instead, all October data will be consolidated into the November report and will be reported on December 16 instead of December 5 as before. Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting is on December 16-17, which means the Fed will likely not be able to update labor data in real time. This means the Fed will have to make decisions without full data. They are in a dilemma, so it is difficult to know what the Fed's next move will be.


Source pic: x.com

[Wind_FURY]

The next report for the labor market in the United States will be in December 16. I personally believe that it's going to be the first important data release for the U.S. economy before the FOMC at the and of next month. A weaker jobs report could force Jerome Powell to cut rates further even if CPI is "sticky".

The problem is that the BLS has confirmed it will not release its October jobs report due to insufficient data collection. Instead, all October data will be consolidated into the November report and will be reported on December 16 instead of December 5 as before. Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting is on December 16-17, which means the Fed will likely not be able to update labor data in real time. This means the Fed will have to make decisions without full data. They are in a dilemma, so it is difficult to know what the Fed's next move will be.


Source pic: x.com

That probably gives Jerome Powell an excuse to leave the rates unchanged, no? He has been hawkish because of the "sticky inflation", but Trump has always been pressuring him to lower the rates.

In Japan, they just approved a stimulus package into rising inflation. That probably means they are expecting a Liquidity Crisis soon?

[Iranus]

That probably gives Jerome Powell an excuse to leave the rates unchanged, no? He has been hawkish because of the "sticky inflation", but Trump has always been pressuring him to lower the rates.

In Japan, they just approved a stimulus package into rising inflation. That probably means they are expecting a Liquidity Crisis soon?

Update: The September NFP was also released yesterday (December 20) after a long delay. Accordingly, 119,000 new jobs were created, higher than the expected 50,000, which is meant to easing hard landing fears. That said, the labor market remains fairly tight( unemployment held steady at 4.4%), and wage growth (3.8%) still hasn't cooled significantly. With unemployment still at 4.4%, the Fed cannot afford to ignore it and will likely continue to cut interest rates.

After the September NFP was released, the December rate cut expectations on the CME markets increased sharply again. It can be said that there is still a chance for the Fed to cut interest rates in December.


https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

[doomloop]

We have seen some great advancements when it comes to technologies. AI itself is one of the great achievement for mankind but to be honest, what good is AI is it eats jobs of various people? We have seen that AI can easily replace human work and it can help in cost-cutting which indeed will increase the profits. This maybe will be good for the company but it will be devastating for the individuals whose lives depend on these jobs and are now scattered because of AI. AI will always be a threat to them.

So I can agree here that maybe after a year or two, mega layoffs will be approaching and thousands of people might loose their jobs. Alternative for this will be to up-skill themselves so they can at least start earning themselves without relying on any organization.

[Iranus]

We have seen some great advancements when it comes to technologies. AI itself is one of the great achievement for mankind but to be honest, what good is AI is it eats jobs of various people? We have seen that AI can easily replace human work and it can help in cost-cutting which indeed will increase the profits. This maybe will be good for the company but it will be devastating for the individuals whose lives depend on these jobs and are now scattered because of AI. AI will always be a threat to them.

So I can agree here that maybe after a year or two, mega layoffs will be approaching and thousands of people might loose their jobs. Alternative for this will be to up-skill themselves so they can at least start earning themselves without relying on any organization.

Every change comes with a price and requires a certain trade-off. Just like when computers came along they eliminated typists, or when email came along they eliminated post offices and mail carriers. Or when smartphones came out and had camera features, it almost eliminated photographers. But then what? It creates more new jobs and we are part of that change.

Likewise, it's no surprise that many people are worried about AI, but I believe that over time. It will also create a lot of new jobs and people will gradually adapt and see it as a useful tool instead of fearing it.

[Wind_FURY]

That probably gives Jerome Powell an excuse to leave the rates unchanged, no? He has been hawkish because of the "sticky inflation", but Trump has always been pressuring him to lower the rates.

In Japan, they just approved a stimulus package into rising inflation. That probably means they are expecting a Liquidity Crisis soon?

Update: The September NFP was also released yesterday (December 20) after a long delay. Accordingly, 119,000 new jobs were created, higher than the expected 50,000, which is meant to easing hard landing fears. That said, the labor market remains fairly tight( unemployment held steady at 4.4%), and wage growth (3.8%) still hasn't cooled significantly. With unemployment still at 4.4%, the Fed cannot afford to ignore it and will likely continue to cut interest rates.

After the September NFP was released, the December rate cut expectations on the CME markets increased sharply again. It can be said that there is still a chance for the Fed to cut interest rates in December.


https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

The unemployment rate is actually a little higher than the previous month's number which was 4.3%. That's definitely going closer and closer to 5%, where it becomes very concerning for the Federal Reserve and the government. Because from that number, it usually surges higher faster like falling dominoes.

The silver-lining = higher possibility of a December rate cut of 25 BPS.

 

[wiss19]

Every change comes with a price and requires a certain trade-off. Just like when computers came along they eliminated typists, or when email came along they eliminated post offices and mail carriers. Or when smartphones came out and had camera features, it almost eliminated photographers. But then what? It creates more new jobs and we are part of that change.

Likewise, it's no surprise that many people are worried about AI, but I believe that over time. It will also create a lot of new jobs and people will gradually adapt and see it as a useful tool instead of fearing it.

I agree that there will still be jobs but eventually the jobs will reduce with the growing technology. For example, when emails came into picture, post offices were eliminated and this made hundreds of people loose their job. With emails, the servers play an important part and only a couple of employees will be required to actually monitor or work with the servers. This kept the remaining unemployed and they had to find some other jobs.

This only concludes that even if technology is making life better, it is reducing the job opportunities and this is a bitter truth about the technology. AI too is going to impact a lot on employment rate. Yes, AI can still open doors for new job opportunities but it will reduce the actual human workload and thus impacting the overall job opportunities.

[Unknown Op]

Every change comes with a price and requires a certain trade-off. Just like when computers came along they eliminated typists, or when email came along they eliminated post offices and mail carriers. Or when smartphones came out and had camera features, it almost eliminated photographers. But then what? It creates more new jobs and we are part of that change.

Likewise, it's no surprise that many people are worried about AI, but I believe that over time. It will also create a lot of new jobs and people will gradually adapt and see it as a useful tool instead of fearing it.

I agree that there will still be jobs but eventually the jobs will reduce with the growing technology. For example, when emails came into picture, post offices were eliminated and this made hundreds of people loose their job. With emails, the servers play an important part and only a couple of employees will be required to actually monitor or work with the servers. This kept the remaining unemployed and they had to find some other jobs.

This only concludes that even if technology is making life better, it is reducing the job opportunities and this is a bitter truth about the technology. AI too is going to impact a lot on employment rate. Yes, AI can still open doors for new job opportunities but it will reduce the actual human workload and thus impacting the overall job opportunities.

We are watching fake news about recession and we are listening these kinds of news which are disturbing many people. We saw COVID-19 but that was big pandemic which came after a long time and people spent their most of money on that because millions of people entrapped by that who were on bed and their family members were helpless because there was need of oxygen and rich people bought this oxygen and they saved their lovely one but poor people could not save this mother or father who were on bed . There was lockdown And few industries were working and most of the people were jobless and that kind of time will come in next century but that is Time to few free but always save money for the bad days .

[Fortify]

There's a high probability that if the unemployment rate surges, then the Federal Reserve pivots to FULL Q.E./turns on the money printer in expectation of a Recession, and to prevent an actual Economic Depression.

This X post says that "mega layoffs" will start in 18 months.

At a recent dinner I met a very senior engineer at one of the Big Four tech cos.

His team develops tooling for a 0-engineer future. They're not allowed to tell anyone internally what they're working on to avoid mass panic. He figures mega layoffs start in 18 months.

There's no point trying to predict the future like that, you have no idea what's going to happen in a couple years and so many people have predicted wrong in the past - especially when leaning towards the negative side. It's also irrelevant, because if you were to take all your money out of the market now, what are you going to do with it? Sit on it wishing for everything to collapse, the pros keep their money invested in the right places and diversified so they'll weather any storm. Crypto will not be safe if a recession starts to hit and often moves in tandem with the stock market.  Quantitative easing can be good as well as bad for bitcoin, so don't be so quick to claim it is a bad thing.

[barbara44]

We are watching fake news about recession and we are listening these kinds of news which are disturbing many people. We saw COVID-19 but that was big pandemic which came after a long time and people spent their most of money on that because millions of people entrapped by that who were on bed and their family members were helpless because there was need of oxygen and rich people bought this oxygen and they saved their lovely one but poor people could not save this mother or father who were on bed . There was lockdown And few industries were working and most of the people were jobless and that kind of time will come in next century but that is Time to few free but always save money for the bad days .

Even savings in this scenario might not be sufficient. We saw people spending all their investments on medical bills as covid was not covered by a lot of insurance companies. The expenses in this case are pretty high and to tackle it, people had no other option but to sell their assets so they could afford a better treatment. Government hospitals were over-crowded leaving people strangled to death.

There was not really much help from governments as the number of inflected people was rising rapidly and was un-controllable. In those times, many people lost their jobs and a few were struggling at an extreme level. Few people were still able to secure their job because they were up to date with the technology and found remote working opportunities. These situation might happen again but I think people will not be ready to tackle this situation.

[Wind_FURY]

The blog post that went viral, and the trading/investment community in X came to a narrative that it caused the stock market to go down for that day - February 23, 2026.

THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS, https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

In the context of this topic, it's not merely a 0-engineer future, but MANY white-collar jobs could be in danger to be replaced by A.I.

  👀

[bhadz]

In the context of this topic, it's not merely a 0-engineer future, but MANY white-collar jobs could be in danger to be replaced by A.I.
👀

It's truly happening. In my country, the BPO industry, they're laying off a lot of employees already due to the shift of AI in the customer service and these companies are telling that it's more cost efficient for them if they'll adopt the AI. There's a massive layoff for almost every industry where AI can be used for their workforce and productivity. I just hope that the customers will demand that they like more the people-oriented type of service than the AIs or automation. I've read before that there's one company that went back to human workforce after adopting AI.

[Wind_FURY]

In the context of this topic, it's not merely a 0-engineer future, but MANY white-collar jobs could be in danger to be replaced by A.I.
👀

It's truly happening. In my country, the BPO industry, they're laying off a lot of employees already due to the shift of AI in the customer service and these companies are telling that it's more cost efficient for them if they'll adopt the AI. There's a massive layoff for almost every industry where AI can be used for their workforce and productivity. I just hope that the customers will demand that they like more the people-oriented type of service than the AIs or automation. I've read before that there's one company that went back to human workforce after adopting AI.

I believe that,

1. You should know how large is the BPO industry in your country and what the percentage of your country's total productivity comes from that industry.

2. Your domestic currency. How is it performing against the U.S. Dollar?

3. Did your Central Bank lower rates?

If 1. is large enough that it could affect the economy, then 3. would most probably be a "yes", which would put more of your domestic currency in circulation, which would also cause inflation and asset prices to go up.

THEN look at 2. Is the value of your domestic currency going down against the U.S. Dollar?

 👀

[bhadz]

It's truly happening. In my country, the BPO industry, they're laying off a lot of employees already due to the shift of AI in the customer service and these companies are telling that it's more cost efficient for them if they'll adopt the AI. There's a massive layoff for almost every industry where AI can be used for their workforce and productivity. I just hope that the customers will demand that they like more the people-oriented type of service than the AIs or automation. I've read before that there's one company that went back to human workforce after adopting AI.

I believe that,

1. You should know how large is the BPO industry in your country and what the percentage of your country's total productivity comes from that industry.

2. Your domestic currency. How is it performing against the U.S. Dollar?

3. Did your Central Bank lower rates?

If 1. is large enough that it could affect the economy, then 3. would most probably be a "yes", which would put more of your domestic currency in circulation, which would also cause inflation and asset prices to go up.

THEN look at 2. Is the value of your domestic currency going down against the U.S. Dollar?

 👀

1. Yes, everybody knows that who's concerned with our economy. It's around 7% to 9% of our GDP with that share from the BPO industry.
2. It's weak right now, from usual 50 pesos per 1 USD, now it's 58 pesos and it reached an ATH 59 pesos per 1 USD last time.
3. They did, interest rates have lowered already.
That's why people who earn USD are the ones who are benefiting with it although it means weak economy but, we can't do anything about that. Because once prices of goods have increased, they won't decrease anymore and so to earn more is the solution for it.

[hafiztalha]

1. Yes, everybody knows that who's concerned with our economy. It's around 7% to 9% of our GDP with that share from the BPO industry.
2. It's weak right now, from usual 50 pesos per 1 USD, now it's 58 pesos and it reached an ATH 59 pesos per 1 USD last time.
3. They did, interest rates have lowered already.
That's why people who earn USD are the ones who are benefiting with it although it means weak economy but, we can't do anything about that. Because once prices of goods have increased, they won't decrease anymore and so to earn more is the solution for it.

Unemployment is common in every country because every country has educated people and after their education they demand job from the government and government has no much resources to give them job and most of the people don't want to hard work and that is reason there is more jobless people in the every country. United States of America want to dominant on all the World and they are successful and their economy is strong as comparison to other countries as they are doing wars with other countries and they want to win this match but in opposite all countries are in trouble and they want to save their youth who are going abroad to earn money to feel happy. More industries should be in a single country if they want to meet their needs but most of the people are dependent on USA who are suppliers of heavy products.

[SquallLeonhart]

First of all, the big layoffs are always happening, because CEO's would like to do nothing and still make a huge profit and show a big improvement, and do not realize growing is part of business. So, what do they do to make quick cash?

They fire 10 thousand people and claim that they cut costs and they think they deserve huge millions of dollars bonuses for such a "great idea", which is why we always have increasing amount of unemployment since that's their only logical attempt and cutting costs or making more money, or god forbid they just make one billion in profit instead of two.

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

I made the topic during June 1, 2025. Therefore the day and month that makes it "eighteen months" is during December 1, 2026.

But we'll probably see a Fed pivot before that day in my personal opinion. The United States' move in Iran might cause a recession if fuel prices remain high.

[jaberwock]

I made the topic during June 1, 2025. Therefore the day and month that makes it "eighteen months" is during December 1, 2026.

But we'll probably see a Fed pivot before that day in my personal opinion. The United States' move in Iran might cause a recession if fuel prices remain high.

I would guess we have a ton of time until then. Also we have to remember that most things do not get calculated right away, even a decision made by a president could show itself all the way on next president instead.

So, we are not going to see much changes in Trumps term that would be radical, this isn't some COVID type of we all stay at home type of huge size thing, it's just unemployment rate, and while it could go up a bit, the impact of it will ripple far longer than just him. This is why I think it's quite clear that we are going to see Trump do whatever he wants, he is getting rid of FED head as well and getting someone he likes, so he will run the nation with full power and no questions asked.

[Wind_FURY]

I made the topic during June 1, 2025. Therefore the day and month that makes it "eighteen months" is during December 1, 2026.

But we'll probably see a Fed pivot before that day in my personal opinion. The United States' move in Iran might cause a recession if fuel prices remain high.

I would guess we have a ton of time until then. Also we have to remember that most things do not get calculated right away, even a decision made by a president could show itself all the way on next president instead.

So, we are not going to see much changes in Trumps term that would be radical, this isn't some COVID type of we all stay at home type of huge size thing, it's just unemployment rate, and while it could go up a bit, the impact of it will ripple far longer than just him. This is why I think it's quite clear that we are going to see Trump do whatever he wants, he is getting rid of FED head as well and getting someone he likes, so he will run the nation with full power and no questions asked.

Although, there were already some employee layoffs that have happened "because of A.I.". But there are some people who say that reason is still debatable, and that it could take months before they could be verified.

That might come in accord with our December, 2026 target.