Bitcoin in the next decade

[JayJuanGee]

and it is pretty unlikely that the BTC price is going back to any of those pre-2021 price levels between $5k and $50k... it is pretty unlikely that we are ever seeing bitcoin prices in that range, ever again.  It is possible, but not likely.

Many of us in bitcoin for a long time prepare for extremes on the upside and the downside, and many of us do no like downward trajectory bitcoin prices, yet if they happen we are either buying  or just holding through those periods... at least once we have gotten used to investing in bitcoin and not trying to trade it.

Well said, and anyone who reads your posts can tell this comes from learned and lived experience. I was 'late' coming in 2016/2017 but even I feel thats enough to understand the same things:
> We will never see another x10. For this to happen we need to dip below $50k and like you I don't think this happens again

You took the logic of my bottom assertion into another direction related to the top, and top analysis is different from bottom analysis.  I doubt that we can put those kinds of top limits on bitcoin even though the dynamics for getting tops is ongoingly changing with the entrances of new kinds of financial instruments, the size of the players and the kinds of manipulation that are happening.

Regarding my own bottom analysis, historically the BTC price had never really gone below the 200-WMA - however, in 2022, the BTC price had spent nearly 16 months at or below the 200-WMA and had gotten as low as 35% below the 200-WMA when it hit the low of $15,479 in November 2022, even during those so far historically low BTC prices relative to the 200-WMA, the 200-WMA continued to go up at about $10 per day and for that lowest period the annualized percentage that the 200-WMA was going up stayed above 18% annualized.

Since the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, we can attempt to use that lagginess to our advantage so that if BTC prices were to start to get to levels of lows in which it was no longer moving up, then we likely realize that the BTC price is in quite a bad place.  Right now, the BTC spot price of $90,400 is 58% higher than the 200-WMA of $57,200, and the 200-WMA is continuing to move up between $35 and $45 per day, which annualized is about 32.5%.

For sure, I don't claim to be any kind of expert, yet in regards to top analysis, we likely need to consider bitcoin's total addressable market, which currently is right around $1 Quadrillion dollars, and since bitcoin has a market cap that is slightly less than $2 trillion, we can see that bitcoin has an upside of 500x, and so we do not even need to believe the total of the 500x in order to see that bitcoin continues to have quite a bit of upside potential - so it can do 10x from here and even more than 10x, even though 10x or more price appreciation could still take time to play out.

I am not even sure what value comes from suggesting that top price measured from down prices, unless we are thinking in terms of trading bitcoin rather than investing in bitcoin.

I would think that guys invest into bitcoin based on their thinking that bitcoin continues to have relatively great upside potential, and just to reach gold parity, bitcoin would need to appreciate around 15x, and if bitcoin is currently ONLY 1/15 the market cap of gold, yet bitcoin is likely in the neighborhood of 1,000x or more better than gold, so sure, it could take 50-200 years for the market to accurately valuate bitcoin as compared to gold, yet we should be able to recognize and appreciate bitcoin's price (valuation) as compared to gold's.

> We don't like to see bears, but if we choose DCA this is less of a worry and a small 'bonus' in fact so that we gain more in the longterm

For sure if we are still accumulating, then lower prices should not make us feel good, and we should see the positive in them, even though surely all holders of bitcoin appreciate seeing prices go up in order to show the correctness of bitcoin's investment thesis and as a form of vindication in being correct in the uppity trajectory of that investment thesis.

> We understand trading is speculation. Holding is patience.

Unlikely to find new people with this thinking since, after all, this thinking comes with living through the whole cycle over and over

Some people learn faster than others, and surely anyone brand new to bitcoin, might consider that they are ONLY going to be accumulating bitcoin for 4 years or more, so they are not even very concerned about price, even though they would like the BTC price to go up in the next 4 years and especially after they have spent a decent amount of time investing into it.

But, yeah, it can be difficult to figure out the newbies perspective in regards to ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, since it tends to take some time to really become more acquainted with bitcoin, even though some people are more receptive than others in terms of understanding the reasons why bitcoin exists and why it has value. 

I would imagine that most newbies come to bitcoin and they do not have any other investments, so they are ONLY able to invest from their discretionary income as it comes in.  Yet, there are other guys who come to bitcoin and they already have other investments, so they could reallocate from some of their other investments into bitcoin (which gives them more ability to put higher percentages of their annual income into bitcoin in a shorter period of time).   Not all bitcoin newbies are alike, even though I don't presume the newbies profile beyond understanding that an overwhelming majority of normies do not have assets, savings and/or investments, so they likely have to build their bitcoin investment size from scratch..and they also likely need to build emergency (back up) funds too, in the event that they want to protect their bitcoin and to be able to hold their bitcoin 4-10 years or longer.....

Privacy starts to fade once the government steps in with regulations. What usually follows is that institutional investors take more control, making the market less volatile.

We’ll be moving away from the original ideals, but in return, the market becomes more stable and adoption grows faster.

The thing is, this isn’t what many of us envisioned in the beginning. We thought we were building something outside government control.. decentralized, private, and free. That’s the core idea of decentralization, and now it feels like we’re slowly drifting from it.

Decentralization was never meant to ask for permission, yet as governments step in the system slowly starts to look like the one it was built to challenge, Adoption may grow, volatility may reduce but the question remains, are we gaining users or losing the soul of the idea?
Regulation may calm the market but it also tames the rebellion, what we gain in stability we risk losing in freedom,  Decentralization was about no gatekeepers now the gates are slowly being rebuilt.

The gates seem to be being build quite rapidly.

There seems to be various levels of desperation coming from the powers that be in trying to control bitcoin in a variety of ways (including paper bitcoin) while they are trying to act as if they are friendly to bitcoin.  That is bullshit.  They want to control and contain bitcoin and to put out various products to control onramps and off ramps that are "stable coins" that are more or less privately run CBDCs.. .. so we have to be careful in our interactions with some of the "approved products."

[Abiky]

Decentralization was never meant to ask for permission, yet as governments step in the system slowly starts to look like the one it was built to challenge, Adoption may grow, volatility may reduce but the question remains, are we gaining users or losing the soul of the idea?
Regulation may calm the market but it also tames the rebellion, what we gain in stability we risk losing in freedom,  Decentralization was about no gatekeepers now the gates are slowly being rebuilt.

We are definitely losing the soul of the idea. People's greed has caused them to be blind about the risks of censorship and centralization. These days, nobody cares about decentralization. By opening the gates to "Wall Street", we've essentially introduced the "single point of failure" Bitcoin was meant to avoid in the first place. It's like bringing traditional finance back again. The number of centralized exchanges continue to increase each day. Meanwhile, governments tighten their regulations to keep Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) under their grasp. So far, it seems that their efforts are working. Even if the core Blockchain network remains decentralized and censorship-resistant.

I mean, what use will it be if Bitcoin is decentralized when governments control who buys/sells it through centralized exchanges. It's why institutional investment companies have been rushing to buy all of the circulating supply. If they achieve this, it will be impossible to buy/sell BTC outside of centralized exchanges. You'd be forced to comply with KYC/AML, effectively becoming a "slave" to the system. Between Bitcoin and banks, there would be no difference. We'll see what happens in a decade from now.

[d5000]

These days, nobody cares about decentralization. By opening the gates to "Wall Street", we've essentially introduced the "single point of failure" Bitcoin was meant to avoid in the first place. It's like bringing traditional finance back again. The number of centralized exchanges continue to increase each day. Meanwhile, governments tighten their regulations to keep Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) under their grasp.

I agree a bit with your worries. But there's a catch with this: As long as the Bitcoin user base is growing, their political power will grow too. It doesn't matter if they are CEX users at first and thus are bound to middlemen. In countries where more than 10% of the population own Bitcoin, it will be virtually impossible trying to ban it (in democracies), because any politician threatening a ban will fear to lose a substantial part of his electorate, because nobody will want to sell their BTC. This is true even more in a world where most democratic countries have fragmented party systems and 10% of the population is really an "asset" many parties will want to capture.

And while the user base increases, there will also be a slow movement towards "true" Bitcoin ownership, i.e. towards holding BTC on your own self-managed wallet with your own keys. Yes it's very slow afaik, but most Bitcoin influencers do talk about these things, so some of the people following them will know about the censorship-resistance concepts, even if most still ignore them.

The beautiful thing is that P2P trading and atomic swaps are techniques extremely difficult to control or block by governments.

So I continue to be optimistic, despite of the current centralization trend.

[slaman29]

> We understand trading is speculation. Holding is patience.

Unlikely to find new people with this thinking since, after all, this thinking comes with living through the whole cycle over and over

<>

Some people learn faster than others, and surely anyone brand new to bitcoin, might consider that they are ONLY going to be accumulating bitcoin for 4 years or more, so they are not even very concerned about price, even though they would like the BTC price to go up in the next 4 years and especially after they have spent a decent amount of time investing into it.

But, yeah, it can be difficult to figure out the newbies perspective in regards to ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, since it tends to take some time to really become more acquainted with bitcoin, even though some people are more receptive than others in terms of understanding the reasons why bitcoin exists and why it has value. 

I would imagine that most newbies come to bitcoin and they do not have any other investments, so they are ONLY able to invest from their discretionary income as it comes in.  Yet, there are other guys who come to bitcoin and they already have other investments, so they could reallocate from some of their other investments into bitcoin (which gives them more ability to put higher percentages of their annual income into bitcoin in a shorter period of time).   Not all bitcoin newbies are alike, even though I don't presume the newbies profile beyond understanding that an overwhelming majority of normies do not have assets, savings and/or investments, so they likely have to build their bitcoin investment size from scratch..and they also likely need to build emergency (back up) funds too, in the event that they want to protect their bitcoin and to be able to hold their bitcoin 4-10 years or longer.....

Thank you for your so detailed response, I really appreciate such careful thinking and even more careful thinking. The forum could really learn, as I could.

I only respond to this point last, as a sort of thinking I have had over the last few years, that it is a little bit of sadness on how true it is, that the people who need it the most, are the ones who have the lowest opportunities to invest. Dscretionary income (or I say disposable) is the lowest for those who need it most. I started very small too but starting in 2017 helped me so much more than 2026 will help a starter.

But the message is the same, there is very few better options, or those options come with greater risk (or same risk as conventional savings and investments) and anyway always harder to access.

I wish you and me and all starters well in this new year

[JayJuanGee]

> We understand trading is speculation. Holding is patience.
Unlikely to find new people with this thinking since, after all, this thinking comes with living through the whole cycle over and over

<>Some people learn faster than others, and surely anyone brand new to bitcoin, might consider that they are ONLY going to be accumulating bitcoin for 4 years or more, so they are not even very concerned about price, even though they would like the BTC price to go up in the next 4 years and especially after they have spent a decent amount of time investing into it.

But, yeah, it can be difficult to figure out the newbies perspective in regards to ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, since it tends to take some time to really become more acquainted with bitcoin, even though some people are more receptive than others in terms of understanding the reasons why bitcoin exists and why it has value. 

I would imagine that most newbies come to bitcoin and they do not have any other investments, so they are ONLY able to invest from their discretionary income as it comes in.  Yet, there are other guys who come to bitcoin and they already have other investments, so they could reallocate from some of their other investments into bitcoin (which gives them more ability to put higher percentages of their annual income into bitcoin in a shorter period of time).   Not all bitcoin newbies are alike, even though I don't presume the newbies profile beyond understanding that an overwhelming majority of normies do not have assets, savings and/or investments, so they likely have to build their bitcoin investment size from scratch..and they also likely need to build emergency (back up) funds too, in the event that they want to protect their bitcoin and to be able to hold their bitcoin 4-10 years or longer.....

Thank you for your so detailed response, I really appreciate such careful thinking and even more careful thinking. The forum could really learn, as I could.

I only respond to this point last, as a sort of thinking I have had over the last few years, that it is a little bit of sadness on how true it is, that the people who need it the most, are the ones who have the lowest opportunities to invest. Dscretionary income (or I say disposable)

Discretionary or disposable are the same thing.  They both refer to income that you still have remaining after accounting for expenses.

is the lowest for those who need it most.

So many times people who have low amounts of discretionary income, they don't have any place to invest the money in small amounts and at their own pace.

So, bitcoin provides a great opportunity, even if their amount of discretionary income is not very high.

Of course, the smaller amount of their discretionary income, then the more difficulties to profit (as much) from their investment in the long run.

So of course someone who is able to invest $100 per week is going to have more absolute quantity in bitcoin as compared with the guys who are ONLY able to invest $10 per month.

Now if a person is really poor, they can still profit from bitcoin, yet frequently, due to their poorness, they are not really able to even  consistently invest $10 per month.. and they are always struggling just to pay to survive..

So yeah, bitcoin cannot help those who don't have (or cannot really confirm that they have) discretionary funds to be able to put into bitcoin... since if they don't actually have discretionary funds, and they put money into bitcoin that they need for their expenses, then they are trading (or gambling) rather than investing, which many of the longer term investors do not recommend to trade and/or to gamble with bitcoin.

I started very small too but starting in 2017 helped me so much more than 2026 will help a starter.

We cannot roll back the clock, so we can ONLY start from now, and I think that bitcoin is going to always be a kind of investment in which the sooner you get started the better... and almost everyone believes they are too late and almost everyone is going to be better off for having hade invested in bitcoin for 10 years versus the guy who is just getting started 10 years later.. which yeah is the case when comparing the 2017 version of you versus the person who is similarly situated as you were in 2017 and they are just starting to invest into bitcoin now.

I doubt that waiting is as good of a strategy as just getting started no matter the BTC price and to just continuously, persistently, regularly, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively invest in bitcoin through buying for 4-10 years or longer.

But the message is the same, there is very few better options, or those options come with greater risk (or same risk as conventional savings and investments) and anyway always harder to access.

Yes.  Accounting for various up and downside scenarios, bitcoin is likely amongst the best (if not the best?) of options that is currently available to everyone and anyone who happens to have discretionary funds available.

I wish you and me and all starters well in this new year

Starters are more advantaged by the bitcoin prices staying down for as long as possible so that they can accumulate more of it.

Longer term bitcoiners have already bought their bitcoin, so longer term bitcoin's are advantaged by the BTC price going up... so the interests are not exactly aligned, even though sometimes newbies get so excited when the price goes up and so depressed when the BTC price goes down (or fails to go up), so sometimes people are not even clear about what is in their own best interests, even though surely we like to see our networth (and perhaps our financial options?) go up, rather than down or sideways.

[Bitcoin_people]

Looking at the current status of Bitcoin, we can guess what stage it will enter in the future and why people are using Bitcoin. Basically, at present, people have understood that Bitcoin is an independent currency and it will help them improve their finances a lot. For which most people are investing in Bitcoin and using Bitcoin for business transactions. Bitcoin is very popular worldwide for fast transactions. We know that there is a limited supply of Bitcoin, which will never be increased after a certain time, but the demand for Bitcoin will increase. As the world continues to become digital, this digital currency will become more popular, and Bitcoin investors will also increase a lot and Bitcoin will become more valuable to everyone.