Does live betting actually give us an edge, or is it just a trap ?

[Botnake]

Most of us are probably familiar with live betting in sports. Some might think that when we’re watching the game, live betting makes more sense since we can see what's happening in real time. We get a feel for the momentum, who’s struggling, or who might be about to fall apart.

From that point of view, we start to believe we have an edge,  that maybe the bookmaker has overvalued or undervalued the odds, and if we catch it quickly enough, we can place a smart bet and capitalize.

But here’s what I want to ask:

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

[goldkingcoiner]

Most of us are probably familiar with live betting in sports. Some might think that when we’re watching the game, live betting makes more sense since we can see what's happening in real time. We get a feel for the momentum, who’s struggling, or who might be about to fall apart.

From that point of view, we start to believe we have an edge,  that maybe the bookmaker has overvalued or undervalued the odds, and if we catch it quickly enough, we can place a smart bet and capitalize.

But here’s what I want to ask:

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

Depends on what you mean by "solid long-term results".  

Personally I have never felt any kind of advantage betting live instead of traditionally. It's just a different experience but it is still the same feeling that comes with gambling. The house edge is still there, even in live betting. So the bookmaker builds in a margin and even if it feels dynamic and opportunistic, the math is still working against you.

I guess it is possible, if the bookmaker is slow, you might have an advantage vs faster data feeds but I think the difference is negligible...

Most bettors go off feelings and emotions so the live model somehow having an advantage is unproven.

[swogerino]

Most of us are probably familiar with live betting in sports. Some might think that when we’re watching the game, live betting makes more sense since we can see what's happening in real time. We get a feel for the momentum, who’s struggling, or who might be about to fall apart.

From that point of view, we start to believe we have an edge,  that maybe the bookmaker has overvalued or undervalued the odds, and if we catch it quickly enough, we can place a smart bet and capitalize.

But here’s what I want to ask:

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

They are very dangerous opportunities as I have seen people losing money with live betting when I used to work in a casino many years ago and live betting were a new thing back then. One person was playing live bets on tennis and using a huge amount of money betting on such games, he used to win most of the time as odds were 1.10 to 1.15 which suggested by the bookmakers that a game could not turn the other side so most likely they were offering 10 to 15% to capitalize and so people like this guy used to capitalize. One day though he lost a lot as 2 bets gone wrong and this guy never recovered, since that day I have never seen him anymore in the casino where I used to work, so most likely we can win a bit of money through live betting yet we can lose a lot if we think of them as a way to make money.

[NeuroticFish]

Most of us are probably familiar with live betting in sports. Some might think that when we’re watching the game, live betting makes more sense since we can see what's happening in real time. We get a feel for the momentum, who’s struggling, or who might be about to fall apart.

From that point of view, we start to believe we have an edge,  that maybe the bookmaker has overvalued or undervalued the odds, and if we catch it quickly enough, we can place a smart bet and capitalize.

But here’s what I want to ask:

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

Imho betting while watching the game can indeed give you an edge. Betting before the game starts can too easily "help" you miss details like a player that will not be in (and you have expectations from him) or you can easily find out subtle details. Even the spectators can turn a game and you can gasp the mood much better if you watch the game.

But (yeah, nothing is perfect)... I expect the casino adjust the odds accordingly themselves, so you have to think/act faster than they do and also you have to not overestimate the information you get from watching the game. And you have to be always aware that surprises can happen.

[Wapfika]

But here’s what I want to ask:

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

I do win the most on live betting mainly when the game is near to end since it’s much easier to predict the outcome due to the momentum of the game.

For example the last game of Pacers and OKC finals, I knew that Pacers can recover so I bet to them +10.5 when the lead is 15 points by OKC. OKC is struggling to extend the gap despite many turnovers because Pacers can always answer with a 3 point shot.

With live games, you can determine the actual condition of the team.

[cabron]

I'm sure its real and does give you the edge since especially when the game is in the 2nd half. If one team is leading and you see that bookmaker still allows you to bet, go dive on it because that's an opportunity to grab.

There is more than 50% that you can win that bet. The money to profit however is just a small amount but you could accumulate little by little if you have the time to just sit and watch.

[Russlenat]

I guess it is possible, if the bookmaker is slow, you might have an advantage vs faster data feeds but I think the difference is negligible...

They’re already using AI now, so they move a lot faster than we think. But as bettors watching the games ourselves, sometimes we spot value in the odds that are offered, and that’s where we need to be smart. The opportunity definitely varies from one gambler to another, maybe we all see the same odds, but everyone has their own perspective.

Personally, I do live betting too, but I’ll admit, I’m not really profitable at it.

[Sticky Bomb]

One major reason betting live is a somewhat good activity is that you're able to see how the team is performing and make choices based on current situations. That doesn't necessarily guarantee accuracy since a coach can change pattern of play anytime and turn the tides around, but I believe it's surely an advantage to the gambler when he bets live.

On tactical matches, I love betting live, for example during the last champions League finally, I initially predicted Inter Milan to win, but seeing how weakly inter were playing, I cast my stake on PSG and to score more than three goals and I won the bet

[Japinat]

For me, it’s a trap because when I’m watching the game, I end up losing my ability to make good decisions because I get emotional. And when you’re emotional, you’re more likely to make mistakes. That’s just how it is. Sometimes, live betting also becomes a way for me to chase my losses, which just makes things worse.

That’s why I think it’s actually better to just bet on the pregame odds and not watch the game at all so I’m not tempted to keep betting.
I do a bit better that way, but honestly, I’m still not profitable overall.

[Dunamisx]

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

When we gamble, we are not rendered with an opportunity base on the kind of sport or game played, instead base on our abilities and knowledge in playing any kind of game, same applies to other kinds of games, which are base on luck, for us to be profitable in gambling, we need to examine on the risk in playing those games of our choices and the way we apply our technique in playing them, which is ultimately the risk factor we must first consider, that it may comes as a win or lose, regardless of being a live bet, casino games or sports bets.

[stadus]

If I were doing gambling full-time, maybe I’d see it as more of an opportunity- but I’m not. I have a lot of other things to take care of, so my only chance to analyze is usually before the game starts. I’ll check the available odds, look up stats from the sites I follow, maybe see what people are saying on betting forums, and then put all that information together before making my decision.

Live betting can be fun, but if you’re not watching the whole game, you’re missing the full picture, and that can easily lead to bad decisions. So for me, I’d rather skip it.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

And that's why we say that in gambling luck can never be overemphasized, because it plays a critical role at every moment on a sport game, despite the skills and overall performance of a club playing the major role. Because I have seen many scenarios whereby a club that was leading with 2 goals at half time, only to lose after the completion of the full match. Hence, while placing a bet on live games, you should also be able to always bear in mind you also stand a 50/50 chance to either n win or lose, because been live doesn't guarantee winning, rather it only gives you a certain level of insight.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

Betting on live match can give some bettors an edge especially if they are also watching how the game is going  but the drawback of betting on life match is that, the odds of the game will continue to change (either reduce or increase depending on your betting option.) and could be against your option. For example if you wanted on team A to win team B and on the process of watching, it becomes completely obvious that team A is going to win the match, if the odds for team A was initially 1.5, it must have reduced to 1.1 or less because it now certain that they will win.

[Dunamisx]

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

Betting on live match can give some bettors an edge especially if they are also watching how the game is going  but the drawback of betting on life match is that, the odds of the game will continue to change (either reduce or increase depending on your betting option.) and could be against your option. For example if you wanted on team A to win team B and on the process of watching, it becomes completely obvious that team A is going to win the match, if the odds for team A was initially 1.5, it must have reduced to 1.1 or less because it now certain that they will win.

The odds are not stable indeed, because the more you play the more it becomes volatile for the odd to change and this will depend on the risk factor involved in playing it, some odds which are much higher like 2.5 upwards could turned to be lower or increased the more as the conditions towards the match goes on a particular direction, which the risk will also be more increased if we tend to play, except we had bet once the match is about to start of already just started.

[Ziskinberg]

Hence, while placing a bet on live games, you should also be able to always bear in mind you also stand a 50/50 chance to either n win or lose, because been live doesn't guarantee winning, rather it only gives you a certain level of insight.

It really depends on the odds you’re getting, but usually for an even line, the odds are never exactly 2.00, they’re typically around 1.90 or even lower. That’s the standard. So while your chances might seem like 50-50, in terms of money value, it’s never truly 50-50. In the long run, you’ll end up losing if you can’t keep your winning rate above 50%.

It might sound a bit technical, but that’s the reality if we’re talking about profitability, right?

[rachael9385]

Most of us are probably familiar with live betting in sports. Some might think that when we’re watching the game, live betting makes more sense since we can see what's happening in real time. We get a feel for the momentum, who’s struggling, or who might be about to fall apart.

From that point of view, we start to believe we have an edge,  that maybe the bookmaker has overvalued or undervalued the odds, and if we catch it quickly enough, we can place a smart bet and capitalize.

But here’s what I want to ask:

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

Some bettors believe that betting on live games would give them more leverage over the market but that's a deceiving thought. Just because a game is going a certain doesn't mean that it cannot change within the next second. If you select a game or two you have more chances of winning compared to when you combine a lot of games. Betting on live games doesn't reduce the risk, to me it's all the same

[Upgrade00]

Live betting allows you access the teams performance and determine the best option to take, but the bookie is also adjusting the odds based on which team team is playing better.

I guess it is possible, if the bookmaker is slow, you might have an advantage vs faster data feeds but I think the difference is negligible...

Odds usually change instantly or gets closed after an incident like a penalty awarded or a team getting a red card and is then opened later when they've been adjusted.

[freedomgo]

Live betting allows you access the teams performance and determine the best option to take, but the bookie is also adjusting the odds based on which team team is playing better.

I think the kind of things we can spot that bookies sometimes miss are injuries or players who get into foul trouble. If a key player is injured or gets fouled out, and they’re really important to the team, that can completely change the game. That’s when you look for an edge and bet on the team that stands to benefit from the situation.

[EluguHcman]

Do those “opportunities” we think we’re spotting actually turn into real profit in our bankroll? Or are we just convincing ourselves it’s profitable without any solid long-term results to back it up?

Left with me alone whatever nature of bets we make as long as it is a game of luck, we are just convincing ourselves that the outcome based on our prediction is the right one otherwise, we since we may still have some more chances to make other decisions as the game is playing live, we could had stil make a difference decision.

So,  when the game is going to our will, we think we have caught the bookmark but when it is going against our will, then is when we would have also noticed that felling that truly there is an house hedge and the bookmaker hide it secret behind the odds.

[Fundamentals Of]

Whatever you do, whether you are betting while the game is already live or you are betting before the game begins, you are still making a prediction in your bet. That means you can still turn out wrong. That is practically the same thing when you are betting prior to the games.

But when betting during a live game, the odds may look a lot different compared to the odds before the game. But it is not really easier to make money that way. It would be easier if the live odds are the same odds when the game has not started yet. Since it is not the case, the level of difficulty in making a profit is practically the same.