Concerning these two examples you gave, I will just share how I feel both of them should approach their Bitcoin investment.
First thing first, we have to acknowledge that these two guys are not in the same financial condition, Yes, both of them can still do well in Bitcoin accumulation, but their approach would not be the same at all.
Of course, the guys are in slightly different situations based on the first example being brand new to both bitcoin and investing and the second example being brand new to bitcoin but not brand new to investing ....
And part of my point was to attempt to get Menele001 to be more specific in his discussion rather than just rambling out some random ideas about what guys are supposedly supposed to do.
Now for the second guy , the one earning $30k per year ($2,500 monthly) with $1,500 expenses and already having traditional investments. I believe he clearly has more advantage than the first guy. Because the way he can approach Bitcoin will be a bit more aggressive compared to the first guy..
Why? The reason is because he has already built non Bitcoin investments worth around $45k, and he has about $7,500 as backup funds (around 5 months of expenses). That alone already reduces financial pressure on him. Because of that, he can concentrate more on Bitcoin accumulation using a bigger part of his discretionary income..
Sure, the second guy has his discretionary income (which, for the sake of ease of presentation, is the same as the first guy) and the second guy also has funds that he could potentially consider to allocate into bitcoin.
There is also the possibility for him to move maybe 5–10% of his non-Bitcoin investments into Bitcoin.. Since he has been investing for about 10 years, he likely has some experience and has seen how different assets grow over time. By comparing the growth of his previous investments with Bitcoin growth over the past 10 years, he can make a more confident decision to allocate that 5-10% (or even more) into Bitcoin, alongside his monthly DCA.. All this gives him room to be more aggressive than the first guy.
Well, if the second guy had been investing for 10 years and reached 1.5x his current salary, then historically he had probably averaged putting at least 10% of his income into his investments.
Now for the first guy, all he really has is his $1,000 monthly discretionary income. And realistically, all of that can’t go into Bitcoin. He still needs to build emergency funds and stronger reserves so he does not end up pulling from his investments when life happens.
That seems pretty risky to put 100% of discretionary funds into bitcoin. You know the two other categories are consume and save... So there are 3 ways that discretionary funds can be spent.
Maybe making a structure like this: maybe 50-60% ($500–$600) monthly into Bitcoin, then around 15% ($150) into emergency funds, another 15% ($150) into reserve funds, then keep like 10% cash on hand for family support, small needs and necessary gifting. That way he is still accumulating Bitcoin but also building stability, which the first guy already have.
Your categories of emergency fund and reserve funds are both savings (two kinds of back up funds), so they are largely the same category.. even though I don't object to your allocation quantities. The consumption proportion of 10% seems a bit small in terms of practicality, even though sure it might work, since each of us has to figure out what is financially and psychologically comfortable for our own situation and what we believe might come up and even including considering how much time there might be between paychecks... Of course, there might also be certain monthly bills that come due on a certain date of the month.
So in a nutshell, their concentration will just be different because their foundations are different. The second guy would have more concentration toward Bitcoin, while the first guy should will still have to balance Bitcoin with safety nets first. Both will obviously win long term, just with different pace..
It is not guaranteed that they will win, even though they can come up with decent ways of managing their money that will help them to improve their chances of "winning.".. and yeah, maybe we frequently can proclaim that even in the process of organizing our finances, we already create situations in which we are already winning because we create situations in which we have options in regards to financial matters because ideally with the passage of time our bitcoin holdings become larger and also our back up funds likely become larger too... even though it could be that once our back up funds get to a certain level, we might focus more on building our bitcoin, as you had mentioned, gracreavix.
I don’t really think there is any problem if you are diversifying your investment to other assets maybe you can actually diversify to gold or Silver which is actually not a bad idea, considering that gold is having a good impact in the stock market right now and also Silver hitting its all time highest price value, but my question would be why are you diversifying because when you’re still in your accumulation phase of Bitcoin there is no reason for you to be diversifying immediately when you’re still in your accumulating stage of Bitcoin, well you can think about diversification when you’ve gotten to your over-accumulation and you have enough bitcoin in your portfolio where you have been holding for completely 2 circles, perhaps outside from that I don’t think there is obviously any reason to diversify to whatever you might think it’s worth investing.
It's not a must that you must reach an over accumulation stage before you can diversify if you want to diversify. You can diversify when you have accumulated half of your bitcoin target if you feel it's too risky to have only bitcoin investment because the reason why we diversify is to reduce the risk in only one investment because if bitcoin isn't doing fine that's the price dips, the other asset might increase in price to balance your loss.
If you must diversify, it should be an investment that you understand and knowledgeable about. You can diversify into bonds, stock, cash equivalents and, equity.
Honestly in as much as Bitcoin accumulation target is a personal decision, halving your accumulation target before investing in other assets is a nice move. The specificity of diversifying into other assets makes it a different things unlike just talking about diversifying into another thing where personal business can follow. Before diversifying along the lines of your accumulation target, question(s)like the reason for doing that will give a clear picture of what to do exactly. Some people might just want to have another asset thereby spreading their gain potential and whatever reasons.
You talk like a shitcoiner Obulis.
Diversification is likly a tool to preserve your wealth rather than grow it.. which is part of the reason that many of us suggest to start out with bitcoin and dollars first, and then consider diversifying later. It may be healthy to consider diversification in relation to bitcoin as a way of diversifying the cash portion of your holdings rather than the bitcoin portion... since the longer that we are in bitcoin, the larger and larger we may want our back up funds to be so that we never have to dip into our bitcoin at a time that is not of our choosing, yet when cash starts to get to 5-6 months or more, it might start to feel like some of that value could up getting put to work and still serving as back up funds, but performing better than the dollar since the dollar (and all other fiat) is known to be ongoingly being debased.
[edited out]
For the 1st example guy, 1k emergency fund covers less than 1 month of basics ($1,500 expenses) and that’s bad. He’ll have
strong emphasis on diversification because no room for big concentration bet since his back up funds are low and on that note, one emergency might force him into debt or even selling investments at loss.
Your use of the term diversification makes it sound like you don't know what you are talking about.
His major aim should be him building his back up funds firstly by using most of the $1k surplus (discretionary income) for about 3 to 6 months or even more.
Don't many of us ongoingly suggest that one of the most important things in bitcoin is get the fuck started, especially once you know that you have discretionary funds. The example shows that the guy has discretionary funds, yet you want to be so retarded as to believe that some value comes from building back up funds? He already has $1k in back up funds, which is 66% of his monthly expenses. In this example, his back up funds are not zero, yet his bitcoin is zero.
So he should be building stability more and not aggressive growth. Once he has secured the back up funds, he may then proceed to invest in bitcoin knowing too well that he has a safe net once emergency rises.
You sound retarded.
The guy has $1k per month in discretionary funds, so how much of that do you want him to put into his back up funds? If he puts $500 a month into his back up funds, then it is going to take him right around 7 months for his back up funds to reach 3 months of his expenses. You want the guy to fuck around building dollars for 7 months?
From my perspective you seem to have a bit of a lack of understanding of what is bitcoin, and sure of course, people can do what they like. We have a lot of poor people who are always saving up cash, and guess what happens, they never stop being poor since their building up of their cash tends to debase about as fast as they are building it up, especially once it starts to get to larger quantities that might be more than 2-3 months of their expenses.
We tend to still suggest building up back up funds to be more than 3 months of expenses, yet I think that part of the presumption is that such back up funds are being built up at the side of building up of a bitcoin investment, so in the context of bitcoin, the back up funds are serving purposes of protecting the bitcoin - even though the back up funds are likely ongoingly being debased.. which is not fair.. but since the back up funds are likely being kept in our local currency.. they are both liquid and not volatile in terms of being able to be used to pay various of our expenses that might come up in event of loss of income and/or increase in expenses.
For the 2nd example guy, he is more in a stronger and better position. Same income ($2,500/month) and expenses ($1,500), so $1,000 discretionary, but he’s 35 with 10 years of investing under his belt and a $45k non bitcoin investment. And his emergency fund is solid at $7,500 which is a 5 months worth his expenses, this alone has given him a stronger edge against surprises. As such, I think he can afford a bit more concentration than the 1st example guy, that happens even more if he’s bullish on bitcoin. So with his back up funds set aside, I could confidently dive into bitcoin investment, probably using most of the discretionary income into investing in bitcoin, and as such gives him a larger shares than the newbie
Well. He has $1k per month of discretionary income, so you want him to put all of it in bitcoin? What about discretionary consumption? What about the $45k that he had already built up? What is he going to do about that? Do you want him to continue to build the $7,500 of his back up funds or to just maintain the $7,500 at that level?
What are you suggesting? Maybe answer in light of the same two above examples that I gave to Menele001
The first guy needs to start his bitcoin investment by putting 50% into bitcoin which is $600 and $300 into his emergency funds because he already has $1k on ground as his backup funds. While he uses the leftover $100 for his discretionary expenses. He can continue like this overtime till he has built his backup funds up to three months of his expenses and divert the money into his reserve funds when that is done, he can invest aggressively for ten years and above.
This guy needs to focus on building his bitcoin portfolio without distractions and shouldn't think of diversifying till he has accumulated up to 60% of his bitcoin portfolio before thinking of diversifying if necessary.
That sounds like a pretty intense plan in terms of not diversifying, even though I am not sure what you mean by accumulating 60% of his bitcoin portfolio.
Are you suggesting that if, for example, the guy had a bitcoin portfolio size target to be able to live off of bitcoin at
$80k per year, then right now he would need 13.8277 BTC, so then if right now he were to have at least 8.3 BTC, then at that point he could start to diversify - and it would not be recommended for him to diversify before reaching that level.
By the way, it seems to me that a guy who right now has 8.3 BTC, he would not need to accumulate any more bitcoin and
by mid 2028 (in my updated not posted projection table), the guy would have enough to start to withdraw at $80k per year... .so, in other words, 60% of the way there gets a guy within right around 2.5-ish years from being at his goal without even having to stack any more sats (of course there could be a bit of variance in the specifics of the projections which is sometimes part of the rationale to overshoot so that mistakes are not made and cushions are in place).
I personally think that the building up the back up funds likely serve as a better reference, yet I am also not sure when diversification might be allowed to start, including maybe if a guy had already put 1-2 years of his income (or maybe his target income) into bitcoin... then at that point he might be able to start to slow down in his BTC accumulation intensity.. which allows diversification into other investments.
The second guy has enough flexibility because he already has a good size of backup funds on ground and a large discretionary income with an ongoing traditional business. He will easily invest aggressively and if possible front load his bitcoin investment because he has other funds/business that can stand for his emergency funds he can diversify from his traditional business into bitcoin investment if he likes without any problem. This guy will reach his bitcoin target faster than guy A.
As for concentration both of them needs to concentrate in order to achieve success.
You are lacking a lot of specifics in regards to this second guy. The second guy has absolutely no bitcoin, and you can't tell him what to do? You seem to be just suggesting in fairly vague ways that such guy can invest aggressively into bitcoin? What does that mean with specifics?
The reason that I gave these examples was in order to attempt to inspire guys try to grapple with specific situations or maybe to create their own specific situations that describe staring points and how to proceed with such starting points, which tends to justify that guys might need to attempt to be more specific in their descriptions about how to proceed.
Of course the second guy has more flexibility in what he can do based on his having had already built up an investment portfolio and built up his back up funds, yet he still doesn't have any BTC and he is 10 years older than the first guy, too... so he does not have as much time to build up his bitcoin holdings and/or other aspects of his investment portfolio as compared with the first guy. Where do you think that the second guy wants to be by the time he is in his 50s or in his 60s? presuming that potentially he is able to keep his job for a bit more time while he is building the bitcoin portion of his investment portfolio.
For the 1st example guy, 1k emergency fund covers less than 1 month of basics ($1,500 expenses) and that’s bad. He’ll have strong emphasis on diversification because no room for big concentration bet since his back up funds are low and on that note, one emergency might force him into debt or even selling investments at loss. His major aim should be him building his back up funds firstly by using most of the $1k surplus (discretionary income) for about 3 to 6 months or even more. So he should be building stability more and not aggressive growth. Once he has secured the back up funds, he may then proceed to invest in bitcoin knowing too well that he has a safe net once emergency rises.
For the 2nd example guy, he is more in a stronger and better position. Same income ($2,500/month) and expenses ($1,500), so $1,000 discretionary, but he’s 35 with 10 years of investing under his belt and a $45k non bitcoin investment. And his emergency fund is solid at $7,500 which is a 5 months worth his expenses, this alone has given him a stronger edge against surprises. As such, I think he can afford a bit more concentration than the 1st example guy, that happens even more if he’s bullish on bitcoin. So with his back up funds set aside, I could confidently dive into bitcoin investment, probably using most of the discretionary income into investing in bitcoin, and as such gives him a larger shares than the newbie
From my little understanding on this topic, you don't need to wait till you build up your backup funds for at least three months of your expenses because time and bitcoin price waits for no one. He is even lucky to have $1k backup funds already.
He should start his bitcoin investment first with 80% of his discretionary for the first two months and on the third month he can put 90% of his discretionary income into his bitcoin investment and emergency funds using DCA and invest for 4-10 years and above. You need to give your bitcoin investment more priority because emergency may or not come.
I appreciate some aspect of your spunk, Frankolala - yet there is something off about your suggestion.
You are suggesting 80% or 90% put into bitcoin and 10% or 20% into back up funds, yet at the same time, you are suggesting discretionary consumption is 0% and you also seem to presume that the back up funds just automatically build themselves, even though you are ONLY suggesting to put 10% to 20% of the discretionary funds into them for 3-ish months? That's ridiculous.
Think about it. Currently, the guy ONLY has $1k in his back up funds, and if he wants to get his back up funds up to 3 months of his expenses, then the total is going to be $4,500 for his back up funds. So even if we were to split the baby and consider that you might be saying to put 15% of the discretionary funds into the back up funds, then that is $150 per months, and it is going to take 23.33 months to build those back up funds an additional $3,5000 (that is $3,500/$150).
Another thing is you are completely silent on discretionary consumption. Do you expect the guy to be completely deprived of discretionary consumption? That does not sound healthy for his psychology. It sounds unrealistic. To attempt to be realistic and even sustainable, for everyone, even those tight-wad curmudgeons, there needs to be some budget for discretionary consumption.
The second example guy can mix all three methods of accumulation and invest aggressively without being bothered of his emergency funds because they are already on ground in cash and in his traditional business. He will achieve success faster and a larger size of bitcoin portfolio overtime.
So you are suggesting that he invest 100% of his discretionary funds into bitcoin, and just keep his back up funds at $7,500 forever and ever? What about the $45,000 that he has already built up? Just leave that? Continue to build it? or cash it out and reallocate it into bitcoin?
By the way, I did not say anything about the second guy having any business as both you and Merit.s seemed to have had plugged that additional dynamic into that hypothetical. I mentioned that the guy has a $30k per year income (just like the first guy) and that he had built up an investment of $45k - presumptively something like stocks or some assets that are somewhat liquid even though I did not specify beyond saying that they were prior to his getting involved in bitcoin.