Topic For FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Meetings

[OgNasty]

That makes the 25 bps rate cut to proceed as scheduled next week.

I agree.  Pretty much what has been expected for some time now.  It would take a 50 bps rate cut to generate any real excitement.

[Wind_FURY]

That makes the 25 bps rate cut to proceed as scheduled next week.

I agree.  Pretty much what has been expected for some time now.  It would take a 50 bps rate cut to generate any real excitement.

It's 25 bps this week, then another 25 bps rate cut during December. It's definitely VERY bullish for both the legacy markets and the crypto-market, but it's also a little concerning "why" Jerome Powell is cutting rates while inflation is above their 2% target.

Does that mean that they expect a sudden surge in unemployment, which obviously will lower economic demand, and therefore make inflation fall BELOW their 2% target.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Wind_FURY]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm

https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2010510130970849338

👀

I had to check twice if it's an A.I. generated video or not. It's REAL. Jerome Powell is accusing the president of the United States of using political pressure and the criminal charges through the D.O.J. because he wouldn't follow the president's order to loosen the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

[Smack That Ace]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm

https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2010510130970849338

👀

I had to check twice if it's an A.I. generated video or not. It's REAL. Jerome Powell is accusing the president of the United States of using political pressure and the criminal charges through the D.O.J. because he wouldn't follow the president's order to loosen the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

I have also read this news, and it seem the Trump administration is trying to dismantle the centuries old independence of the Fed. In the long run, this only harms the USD, but they do not seem to care. However, the matter did not end there, and even more ridiculously, Trump claimed he knew nothing about the DOJ targeting Powell. 

However, I guess this will not lead anywhere either, since Powell only has four month left in his term as Fed chairman, which is in May.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-denies-involvement-doj-fed-subpoena-jerome-powell-rcna253526?

[Wind_FURY]

The U.S. CPI numbers will be released/announced in five hours.

  👀

The projected numbers are higher year over year, and month over month. THEN next week we'll see the new Federal Reserve Chairman give his first speech. Analysts are saying that he is "reform-minded", but does THAT mean he's hawkish or dovish?

[colinistheman]

The U.S. CPI numbers will be released/announced in five hours.

  👀

The projected numbers are higher year over year, and month over month. THEN next week we'll see the new Federal Reserve Chairman give his first speech. Analysts are saying that he is "reform-minded", but does THAT mean he's hawkish or dovish?

Regardless of whether Kevin Warsh is hawkish or dovish, inflation continues to show an upward trend, which means that interest rates are unlikely to be cut anytime soon. They might even be forced to raise interest rates again if inflation soars.

According to CME FedWatch, there is currently about a 98% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, while only 1,8% expect a a 25bps rate cut.


cmegroup.com

[Wind_FURY]

The U.S. CPI numbers will be released/announced in five hours.

  👀

The projected numbers are higher year over year, and month over month. THEN next week we'll see the new Federal Reserve Chairman give his first speech. Analysts are saying that he is "reform-minded", but does THAT mean he's hawkish or dovish?

Regardless of whether Kevin Warsh is hawkish or dovish, inflation continues to show an upward trend, which means that interest rates are unlikely to be cut anytime soon. They might even be forced to raise interest rates again if inflation soars.

According to CME FedWatch, there is currently about a 98% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, while only 1,8% expect a a 25bps rate cut.


cmegroup.com

The projection was actually on point with the actual numbers. It's higher, but because it didn't go over the projected number the stock market in the U.S. took the new positively even though it's higher.



 

BUT if inflation doesn't go down during the next two or three months, we probably should expect another rate hike, no?