Topic For FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Meetings

[alani123]

High ranking EU officials struck a deal with the Trump admin and the markets hated it. The Euro fell the most against the dollar it has fallen since many months.

Everyone was expecting a deal that would benefit Europe or at least be mutually beneficial, and instead the US gets to keep most of its tarrifs against EU while EU scaps most of its tariffs against the US. It was a large clusterfuck. And now the US dollar gets to be strengthened against the Euro while keeping rates high. It's all a very weird combination of politics.

EU will keep suffering for inflation just thanks to this stupid trade deal I guess.

[justdimin]

High ranking EU officials struck a deal with the Trump admin and the markets hated it. The Euro fell the most against the dollar it has fallen since many months.

Everyone was expecting a deal that would benefit Europe or at least be mutually beneficial, and instead the US gets to keep most of its tarrifs against EU while EU scaps most of its tariffs against the US. It was a large clusterfuck. And now the US dollar gets to be strengthened against the Euro while keeping rates high. It's all a very weird combination of politics.

EU will keep suffering for inflation just thanks to this stupid trade deal I guess.

Simply, not because it benefits one side, but it hurts both sides. This is how it works and while some may disagree, it is how it is. Company in Europe makes a product, costs them 20 bucks, they decide to sell it for 100 bucks. Company in the USA wants to buy that product, and sell it to Americans, but they need to import it, now that there is a new tariff, instead of paying 100, they will have to pay 125 to get it.

American people pay 125 for a product that they can get for 100, so they buy less, because now it's more expensive, importer can't sell as much, because it's more expensive, and European company can't sell as much, because it is mor expensive. See how nobody ever profits from this?

Only "argument" trump has is that, this would allow an American company, who used to sell for 110, could sell now, because they didn't sell when European one was 100, now it's 125, so American is cheaper. But what if there isn't an American version? This only works for a very tiny sliver of the companies, and the whole other rest loses.

[Wind_FURY]

Jerome Powell will be speaking again in the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 23, 2025. The topic will be about, "Labor Markets In Transition". 👀

Does the "Transition" mean the integration of A.I in the labor market? And will that have any indirect connection to the "mega-layoffs" discussed in this topic?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5545484.0

Or am I connecting the dots that shouldn't be connected?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

Jerome Powell will give a speech in Kansas City, Wyoming for this year's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. This year's "theme" will be about labor markets "in transition". Perhaps that has something to do with the development and evolution of A.I. and how it's taking jobs away from the work force.

Powell will probably talk about tariffs, its effects on inflation, and macro-economic policy.

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

The Federal Reserve has a scheduled meeting for the FOMC on September 16 and 17. Jerome Powell is expected to announce a rate cut of 25 Basis Points, which could cause a positive surge in the market.

Although the reason for the rate cut is to help bring some liquidity back because, U.S. Banks are currently sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses.



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[Marvell1]

Bump.

The Federal Reserve has a scheduled meeting for the FOMC on September 16 and 17. Jerome Powell is expected to announce a rate cut of 25 Basis Points, which could cause a positive surge in the market.



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The opposite can also happen, I mean "sell the news" in the short term. Because the news is no longer a secret and the market has also increased significantly since the CPI was announced until now. So in my opinion, when the official news comes out and there are no surprises (Fed only cut 0.25% not 0.5%), the market will correct instead of rallying like most people expect.

But in the long run, this is an important catalyst for the market because lower interest rates mean the economy is getting better and speculative assets are often the preferred choice of investors in a stable economy.

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

The Federal Reserve has a scheduled meeting for the FOMC on September 16 and 17. Jerome Powell is expected to announce a rate cut of 25 Basis Points, which could cause a positive surge in the market.



       👀

The opposite can also happen, I mean "sell the news" in the short term. Because the news is no longer a secret and the market has also increased significantly since the CPI was announced until now. So in my opinion, when the official news comes out and there are no surprises (Fed only cut 0.25% not 0.5%), the market will correct instead of rallying like most people expect.

But in the long run, this is an important catalyst for the market because lower interest rates mean the economy is getting better and speculative assets are often the preferred choice of investors in a stable economy.

  👍

Although the rate cut could already be priced in, but the "sell the news" reaction of the market will merely be considered normal volatility when traders start moving based on the news.

A rate cut would mean more liquidity, which would also mean a higher probability for Bitcoin to surge another all time high on October, or November. Perhaps also during the next remaining days of September?

[Ambatman]

Although the reason for the rate cut is to help bring some liquidity back because, U.S. Banks are currently sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses.

Gold and silver already peaking.
The Fed are focused on inflation and jobs and it seems the last unemployment report wasn't encouraging.

Although the rate cut could already be priced in, but the "sell the news" reaction of the market will merely be considered normal volatility when traders start moving based on the news.

Since the certainty of a cut, it would be funny if Powell doesn't
But like you said a cut is bullish for Bitcoin and other investments.
Volatility would be rampant this remaining hours to destroy longs and short before shooting.

[Wind_FURY]

Although the reason for the rate cut is to help bring some liquidity back because, U.S. Banks are currently sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses.

Gold and silver already peaking.

Peaking? Are you telling me that Gold and Silver will crash soon? Because that would be the opposite of what a rate cut would do to the commodities market.

The Fed are focused on inflation and jobs and it seems the last unemployment report wasn't encouraging.

What's your point?

Although the rate cut could already be priced in, but the "sell the news" reaction of the market will merely be considered normal volatility when traders start moving based on the news.

Since the certainty of a cut, it would be funny if Powell doesn't

That would be very funny indeed, but I believe Scott Bessent already has Jerome Powell under control. There will be a rate cut on Wednesday, and another one in December for a total rate cut of 50 Basis Points.

But like you said a cut is bullish for Bitcoin and other investments.

Volatility would be rampant this remaining hours to destroy longs and short before shooting.

Don't trade, just HODL.

[virasog]

Since the certainty of a cut, it would be funny if Powell doesn't
But like you said a cut is bullish for Bitcoin and other investments.
Volatility would be rampant this remaining hours to destroy longs and short before shooting.

It is very clear that there will be rate cuts announced today, but more importantly, it will be the speed of Powell that will determine the market direction that will be sustainable after this event. No doubt, there will be high volatility during the event, but what happens later depends upon what Powell has to say about the further rate cuts in their year and his stance on inflation.

Some important events to take place today,

[Hamza2424]

It is very clear that there will be rate cuts announced today, but more importantly, it will be the speed of Powell that will determine the market direction that will be sustainable after this event. No doubt, there will be high volatility during the event, but what happens later depends upon what Powell has to say about the further rate cuts in their year and his stance on inflation.

Thanks for sharing this, and these events can have a big impact but I also think he will cut the rates because he had shared this previously and the PPI and CPI data also suggest he will cut the rates but there is a word in the air that he might not cut the rates but might keep them unchanged, if that happens, then we might see a correction back to $107k but if that happens it will be a buying opportunity.

Better for holders but not for future traders, they should avoid opening any risky trades today, better to stick with less risky trades with stop lose.

The volatility will be high but he is not following Trump and when everyone is expecting a yes from the market the Powell says no haha that's the main fear of the current market now, but it will pass.

[Wind_FURY]

The rate cut, as expected, was 25 Basis Points. Although the market is currently reacting positively, the Federal Reserve has also said that they are NOT thinking of a full pivot to Q.E. right now and that they will wait for "incoming data" before they could make a decision.

I'm going to sound like a broken record, but the Federal Reserve will be late, AGAIN. The recession will happen, the markets will crash just when Jerome Powell does decide to pivot.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm

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[fuguebtc]

I'm going to sound like a broken record, but the Federal Reserve will be late, AGAIN. The recession will happen, the markets will crash just when Jerome Powell does decide to pivot.

Yes I also believe a recession would happen when they started QE, but I think they did it on purpose and wanted a recession to happen.

Nominally, the Fed's mission is to stabilize and balance the financial system, but in my opinion, the Fed was not created to improve people's lives. The Fed was created for the benefit of the group behind it, not the people, and history shows that in the last two major financial crises, 1997 and 2008, they were slow to cut interest rates. This time is no exception, recession will happen and common people will lose money and assets while the wealthy group will have the opportunity to buy cheap assets.

[sana54210]

The rate cut, as expected, was 25 Basis Points. Although the market is currently reacting positively, the Federal Reserve has also said that they are NOT thinking of a full pivot to Q.E. right now and that they will wait for "incoming data" before they could make a decision.

I'm going to sound like a broken record, but the Federal Reserve will be late, AGAIN. The recession will happen, the markets will crash just when Jerome Powell does decide to pivot.

The markets all everywhere being full green is the result of it, that's how much everyone expected it and celebrated it. I mean even my nation markets are green and I am not even in the USA, so it shows you that the whole world wanted this. Quantitively easing has to be done as quickly as possible because if that does not come soon then we are going to have less investments, and that would mean less jobs, and more unemployment.

People need to realize, the less "consumer" we have, the harder economy falls, we create, but unless it's sold and consumed, we create for nothing, and profits drop, and markets crash. This is why we need a lot of "poor" people, and I mean a lot, not poverty, not starving, but poor, because they still at least spend.

[Akbarkoe]

Stabilizing inflation is very difficult today because we are not yet healthy in terms of monetary policy due to the lingering effects of Covid-19, which has led to more money being printed. On the other hand, money continues to be created gradually and the economic situation of the community is beginning to decline, especially at the grassroots level, which is the main target of money circulation.
Perhaps the case is the same, with most of the money circulating in unclear hands, not at the grassroots level. Economic injection should be driven by more positive growth.

Talking about recession is indeed a big threat, seeing what happened in the past is always a blow, but the most dangerous thing for the US is debt default, even to pay the interest, which is already very large.

Seeing how Trump gathered big business leaders and pressured foreign companies to set up factories in the US, one of the goals being to boost economic circulation and job creation, the tariff policy was indeed designed to support domestic economic growth.
However, the expected impact has not been as hoped, and inflation remains very high, even according to the latest CPI data, which shows that inflation is increasing.

[Wind_FURY]

I'm going to sound like a broken record, but the Federal Reserve will be late, AGAIN. The recession will happen, the markets will crash just when Jerome Powell does decide to pivot.

Yes I also believe a recession would happen when they started QE, but I think they did it on purpose and wanted a recession to happen.

Because a recession lowers demand, and from low-demand conditions, it's the only way to get inflation under control. If inflation is under control + unemployment is surging = BRRRRRRRRR.

The rate cut, as expected, was 25 Basis Points. Although the market is currently reacting positively, the Federal Reserve has also said that they are NOT thinking of a full pivot to Q.E. right now and that they will wait for "incoming data" before they could make a decision.

I'm going to sound like a broken record, but the Federal Reserve will be late, AGAIN. The recession will happen, the markets will crash just when Jerome Powell does decide to pivot.

The markets all everywhere being full green is the result of it, that's how much everyone expected it and celebrated it. I mean even my nation markets are green and I am not even in the USA, so it shows you that the whole world wanted this. Quantitively easing has to be done as quickly as possible because if that does not come soon then we are going to have less investments, and that would mean less jobs, and more unemployment.

People need to realize, the less "consumer" we have, the harder economy falls, we create, but unless it's sold and consumed, we create for nothing, and profits drop, and markets crash. This is why we need a lot of "poor" people, and I mean a lot, not poverty, not starving, but poor, because they still at least spend.

That part of your post may sound wrong if we look at the current situation, but with the hypothesis that the Federal Reserve is always too late to make such decisions, you could also be right.

In another topic I used that hypothesis and I asked if, "Donald Trump was right to pressure Jerome Powell into cutting rates and pivot to Quantitative Easing"? - No one could post a definitive answer.

[Wind_FURY]

Bump.

Because of the government shutdown in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has postponed the FOMC meeting and the announcement of the U.S. CPI/Inflation numbers. It was supposed to be announced during the first week of October.

The forecast is a little higher month on month, but the Federal Reserve is expected to continue with their rate cut by 25 bps on October 29. That's bullish for the market.

[tygeade]

I am not entirely sure if that will happen or not. I have seen other people say that, but I think it's clear that we are seeing them being doubtful about it. Not because USA doesn't need a rate cut, they do, but because when the government is shutdown, making a huge decision like this, while the nation is on fire, and millions of millions of people end up in financial despair, dropping the rate is the last thing anyone cares. So maybe they will postpone that until government is back on.

Moreover, what kind of weird system they have where if two parties do not agree on something, millions of people will not get paid? If anything, I would say people SHOULD be getting paid, and you should freeze all the money and payments to these politicians. Hit their pockets if you want them to be hurtful.

[Wind_FURY]

I am not entirely sure if that will happen or not. I have seen other people say that, but I think it's clear that we are seeing them being doubtful about it. Not because USA doesn't need a rate cut, they do, but because when the government is shutdown, making a huge decision like this, while the nation is on fire, and millions of millions of people end up in financial despair, dropping the rate is the last thing anyone cares. So maybe they will postpone that until government is back on.

?

Do you actually understand what you're posting?

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Although the Federal Reserve should be careful because of inflation, a rate cut will actually help ease borrowing, and therefore ease economic conditions as the unemployment rate is going up. It's currently not at dangerous levels yet, but Jerome Powell shouldn't wait for unemployment to surge before he starts doing anything.

[Wind_FURY]

The latest inflation data, although it's still not the ideal number, was actually better than the expectation. Core CPI was 3.00% for September vs. the expectation of 3.10%. That makes the 25 bps rate cut to proceed as scheduled next week.

The situation to cut rates isn't "perfect", but Jerome Powell is cutting rates into weakening labor data. The unemployment rate would be the data that everyone should start following.