I'm bored, let's debunk another martingale gambling strategy! New experiment 🏇!

[stompix]

A few months ago, I had a lenghty private discussion after a series of my posts arguing how Martingale was stupid and how no matter what variation of it you try, you will end up losing, now with other variation poping up, which would involve only betting on favorites with a fixed term loss and a bit of extra flavor to it (you will see it down the line)

Now, since the football season is over and I wouldn't have the patience for one round per week, no way I'm doing as in this one, or god no my other experiment, I'm playing it with my favorite sport, horse racing.


So the rules of the experiment are pretty easy
- Bet only on under 6/4 or 2.5 favorites for UK and Ireland (sorry USA, no way I'm going to lose nights over this), no bet if two are under 6/4
- Bets are on SP rates, as per skybet rates
- Initial bet is $1, next bet must cover that till 5 consecutive losses
- After 5 consecutive losses, the bet is doubled till your winnings cover the first chain of losses
So you lose 1+2+4+8+16 (total 31), you double the bet to $2 and you must win 16 times, if not, double again!
- Stop loss for the experiment is $1000, or $1000 in profit (this is a private deal  ), it needs 6 days of consecutive losses for a wipe-out!


Now, obvious questions before the first day
- Loss or profit? 
- How long do you think it will take to reach either?
- And of course, the most important, if this s^&% turns out in profit, would you try it yourself?

[Sanitough]

I’ve tried the bankroll strategy before, though on a different game, but I didn’t really have success with it.

Still, the fact that you’re thinking about it makes me curious. I’d definitely be interested if you decide to test out your idea and turn it into an experiment.

Personally, I still believe in the Martingale strategy, especially for sports betting, but like I mentioned, I’ve failed with it too.
Maybe someone like you could actually prove that the method can work. I’ll be watching this thread in case you start placing bets.

[Oshosondy]

$1000 on just betting, I can never do that. The highest that I have gone on martingale before was $31 which you have explained also, starting from $1 and doubled it until it was five consecutive losses. I can easily afford to lose $31 but I can not afford to lose $1000.

I hope consecutive losses will not result to emotions and loss of someone's whole money.

[stompix]

Still, the fact that you’re thinking about it makes me curious. I’d definitely be interested if you decide to test out your idea and turn it into an experiment.

Well, that's the point of this, of course I'm going to bet on it!

$1000 on just betting, I can never do that. The highest that I have gone on martingale before was $31 which you have explained also, starting from $1 and doubled it until it was five consecutive losses. I can easily afford to lose $31 but I can not afford to lose $1000.

Spread over a few weeks if not months, it's not that big of a deal and I don't think I will get wiped out that easily, long runs of favorites losing do happen, I'm well aware of that but consecutive ones, no! Plus, I'm not playing entirely on my own money!

Anyhow, day one, and I can't find a way to show those pics and how to fill a full page of screenshots, so official results:
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/fast-results
and bets:



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Results for day one
- $1 loss at 1.8, $2.4 loss at 1.8, $7.5 win with $3.1 bet at 2.4 odds,   $1 profit
- $2.45 win at 2.45 with $1 bet, 1.45 profit
- $1 loss at 2.4, $4 win at 2.0 odds with 2 bet,  $1 profit
- $2.4 win at 2.4 odds with $1 bet,  $1.4 profit

Day 1: 7 bets, max bet $3, $6.5 max bankroll needed,  $4.85 profit

[rachael9385]

I’ve tried the bankroll strategy before, though on a different game, but I didn’t really have success with it.

Still, the fact that you’re thinking about it makes me curious. I’d definitely be interested if you decide to test out your idea and turn it into an experiment.

Personally, I still believe in the Martingale strategy, especially for sports betting, but like I mentioned, I’ve failed with it too.
Maybe someone like you could actually prove that the method can work. I’ll be watching this thread in case you start placing bets.

It's very hopeful for you to believe that it can work when it has actually failed you several times, the martingale strategy is something that doesn't work at all both in casino gambling and sports betting. In the aspect of sports betting using this system when you are having more than 5 to 6 losing streaks can affect your bankroll. We just have to come to terms with the fact that this can't work at all

[DPHOR]

I still have doubts on martingale theory and principles as it never works for me, and of course I can't waste such funds to keep having that patient to double my bet whenever I lose till I get the right winnings, to me it makes someone's looks so stupid because what if luck aren't on their side to win win as they budgeted or what if they ran out of funds would they still continue gambling till they hit their winning as they initially planned?

[DaNNy001]

$1000 on just betting, I can never do that. The highest that I have gone on martingale before was $31 which you have explained also, starting from $1 and doubled it until it was five consecutive losses. I can easily afford to lose $31 but I can not afford to lose $1000.

I hope consecutive losses will not result to emotions and loss of someone's whole money.

No risk no reward lol...but I agree with a thousand dollars on betting can really do a lot instead of wasting it on betting but this isn't really a big deal to some people, everyone has their capacity and limit, losing this amount might not really mean much to him...The same way you said the highest amount you've gone on martingale is $31 some people might see that as staking a lot of money, it's all about betting responsibly that's the most important thing

[peter0425]

- And of course, the most important, if this s^&% turns out in profit, would you try it yourself?

No. Lol. I wouldn’t bet on the same things as you so the results might be different. There’s no guarantee that even if yours worked, mine will too.

$1000 on just betting, I can never do that. The highest that I have gone on martingale before was $31 which you have explained also, starting from $1 and doubled it until it was five consecutive losses. I can easily afford to lose $31 but I can not afford to lose $1000.

I hope consecutive losses will not result to emotions and loss of someone's whole money.

No risk no reward lol...but I agree with a thousand dollars on betting can really do a lot instead of wasting it on betting but this isn't really a big deal to some people, everyone has their capacity and limit, losing this amount might not really mean much to him...The same way you said the highest amount you've gone on martingale is $31 some people might see that as staking a lot of money, it's all about betting responsibly that's the most important thing

As long as you know your limit, it’s fine. I also believe that experiments like this though not really supported by research groups must have a good proper sample. Go bigger if you can.

[stompix]

So, I took a look at today's schedule and omg, I knew it was the Ascot festival but 



This is starting to be a side-job, I'm thinking of cutting down and just running it for 1000 rounds rather than till I either hit either +/- 1000 limit, I have a feeling I will simply ragequit before that anyhow.

No risk no reward lol...but I agree with a thousand dollars on betting can really do a lot instead of wasting it on betting but this isn't really a big deal to some people, everyone has their capacity and limit, losing this amount might not really mean much to him...T

Doing the math on average bets, this will need to be spread over 100 bets to be a loss, and that’s not even counting eventual profits. So at max, $10 for a losing bet on average. With at least 10 losing days spread again, it will be like a full month of constantly betting, after which any insane individual would take a two-month break.

Again, nothing extraordinary, there are a lot of players that bet half or at least a third of that on a single match without being some high rollers.

- And of course, the most important, if this s^&% turns out in profit, would you try it yourself?

No. Lol. I wouldn’t bet on the same things as you so the results might be different. There’s no guarantee that even if yours worked, mine will too.

If you would try this scheme, you would be forced to do the same bets, our results would be identical, this is much like betting straight on a team or betting on all favorites in a round, the outcome will be the same for all of us.

[Agbamoni]

No risk no reward lol...but I agree with a thousand dollars on betting can really do a lot instead of wasting it on betting but this isn't really a big deal to some people, everyone has their capacity and limit, losing this amount might not really mean much to him...The same way you said the highest amount you've gone on martingale is $31 some people might see that as staking a lot of money, it's all about betting responsibly that's the most important thing

A thousand dollars is too small if you are living in country that uses the dollars as their legal tender. For countries where the dollar has massive value then it can be a huge bankroll for gamblers in that region to play around with or they could use it to do something else instead of gambling with it. IMO, that amount doesn't do much these days, if you buy one or two device its finished. 

[Josefjix]

Oh my God, this whole principle is looking bulky and I don't seem to be trying this someday while also the amount is pretty way too much for a guy like me to try. Why not trying it little, improving on the profits little too while climbing higher bit by bit, I think such process will be more appealing to trying out than this you showing us.

Anyway, there are those that would definitely give a try and if there is any person trying, please, I'll be happy to see your progress if you could share it with us.

[Su-asa]

Oh my God, this whole principle is looking bulky and I don't seem to be trying this someday while also the amount is pretty way too much for a guy like me to try. Why not trying it little, improving on the profits little too while climbing higher bit by bit, I think such process will be more appealing to trying out than this you showing us.

Anyway, there are those that would definitely give a try and if there is any person trying, please, I'll be happy to see your progress if you could share it with us.

There are lots of strategies that has been shown constantly but we all know the end result. All I I can say that anyone that decides to try these strategies should stake cautiously. There are no sure strategies that can put anyone in profit over a long period of time, the plans always seems nice and feasible when you haven't actually done it yet but after a while of trying you would b disappointed

[Hispo]

Oh my God, this whole principle is looking bulky and I don't seem to be trying this someday while also the amount is pretty way too much for a guy like me to try.

Keep in mind, in order for anyone to perform a martingale experiment like this one, such person needs to have a bankroll or a betting budget which is big compared to the increases of wager they are planning to adjust as part of the strategy. Martingale is infamous because for it to have a minimum change to be profitable for a gambler, the gambler in question would need to have a massive amount of money at their disposal.
When I see people talking about going for a martingale strategy with sums as little as twenty dollars or one hundred dollars, I already can tell those guys will lose all their money in a record time, because of the mathematical and statistical nature of martingale, if OP wanted to increase his wager by ten dollars, instead of one single buck at the time, it would probably take him ten thousand dollars or bankroll to run this experiment in a reasonable period of time without losing it all.

[stompix]

When I said pain in the ass...understatment

Redcar Anaisa 10/11 L / Redcar 3 Jungle Monarch 6/5 Limerick Knockmark 5/6 L / DownRoyal In My Teens 6/4 W 
$1 bet lost, $2 bet lost, $4.5 bet loss, $6 bet win - profit $1.5

Redcar Glimmer Of Light 6/5 L / Ascot Treanmor 5/4 L / Newmarket Wild Desert  30/100 L/ Royal Ascot 6/4 W
$1 bet lost, $2 bet lost, $13 bet lost, $12 bet win - profit $2

Down Royal Letiza 6/5 W
$1 bet win - profit $1.20

Ayr Mo Of Cairo 5/6 L/  Down Royal Acapulco Bay 6/5 L/ Down Royal Arcland 11/8 L/ Bangor Leading Force 1/1 L/ Bangor-on-Dee
4/9 W
$1 bet lost, $1.7 bet lost, $3 bet lost, $6 bet lost, $30 bet win - profit $1.2

Haydock 5/6 W
$1 bet win - profit $0.83

Royal Ascot 4/5 W
$1 bet win - profit $0.80

Lingfield Lovethiswayagain 1/3 L/  Bangor Chillhi 5/4 F L/  Ayr Giselles Izzy 11/10 W
$1 bet lost, $2 bet lost, $4 bet win - profit $1.40

less than 4 fav remaining so I stopped.

Day 2: 19 bets, max bet $30, $41 max bankroll needed,  $8.9 profit
Total 26 bets, max bet $30, $41 max bankroll needed,  $13.75 profit

Early betting suggests today (Sunday) might have only 6 favorites under 2.5 so that means only two possible bets, I might skip it!

When I see people talking about going for a martingale strategy with sums as little as twenty dollars or one hundred dollars, I already can tell those guys will lose all their money in a record time, because of the mathematical and statistical nature of martingale, if OP wanted to increase his wager by ten dollars, instead of one single buck at the time, it would probably take him ten thousand dollars or bankroll to run this experiment in a reasonable period of time without losing it all.

Well, if I would have played with $10 and I woudl have lost today in that shitty race at Bangor I would have been down -$400, I would have needed according to the rules to double the bet for the next day to $20, so another string of 5 losses wiht the same odds at in the forth one above and I would have been down -$800 so -$1200 experiment over!
Although I do bet more than $20 on a horse, I would never put $400 down to earn $20, this would be stupid, so yeah, 1000:1 so a 2¹⁰ factor seemed like the minimal take for it.

[Slow death]

- And of course, the most important, if this s^&% turns out in profit, would you try it yourself?

I wouldn't try this even if someone could prove to me that they were making a profit with this strategy. I never forget the rule of not chasing losses. Martigale chases losses in a way, and when things go wrong, the person loses a lot. It's unlikely that someone who uses this strategy will stop when their bankroll runs out.

They'll deposit money back into the betting house, continue with the same strategy, and lose. Then they'll deposit again, and there'll come a time when the person will sell all their assets to keep playing. That's why I stay away from this type of strategy. I don't believe in making a profit from betting. I play for entertainment.

[Mia Chloe]

Personally I have the feeling this experiment like almost all Martingale variations will likely result in a loss. Although betting on favorites kinda reduces the immediate risk of a long losing streak actually the flaw of the Martingale system of  increasing stakes to recover losses is risky if you ask me.
Reaching the $1000 loss limit could happen surprisingly quickly if you hit a series of unexpected losses especially for games that you had the initial feeling will play out well. As your bets actually double after just five consecutive losses your risk will increase too.

[stompix]

So, Monday:

Monday
Special Dividend 1/1  Win   - profit $1
Endowed 11/8 Win   - profit $1.38
Arboreous  8/11 $1Lost  Bold Suitor 5/4  $2 Win   - profit $1.50
Darkened Edge 5/4  Win  - profit $1.25
Respiro Solitario 4/6 Win - profit $0.67
Nobler  8/13 Win   - profit $0.62
Swiped 5/6 $1Lost  Molto Amichi 8/11  $2.5Lost  Silent City11/10 $4 Win - profit $0.90

Day 3: 10 bets, max bet $4, $8 max bankroll needed,  $7.32 profit

Tuesday
Hope Queen 4/6 Win   - profit $0.67
Crimson Spirit  30/100 Win  - profit $0.30
Kinswoman 4/5 $1Lost Banksman 11/10  $2Lost  Special Ghaiyyath  8/11  $6Win    - profit $1.36
Sea Of Charm (FR) 5/4 $1Lost Quirke On Parole 11/10  $2Win   - profit$1.20
Throne Hall 11/8 $1Lost  Miss Honey (IRE) 1/1  $2Lost  Abbot Byzantium  4/9  $10Win    - profit $1.44
 
Day 4: 9 bets, max bet $10, $13 max bankroll needed,  $4.97 profit

Total 45 bets, max bet $30, $41 max bankroll needed,  $26.04 profit

Reaching the $1000 loss limit could happen surprisingly quickly if you hit a series of unexpected losses especially for games that you had the initial feeling will play out well. As your bets actually double after just five consecutive losses your risk will increase too.

Neah, it's actually quite a long run
This is a version of Martingale with stop loss then doubling the chain so it goes
1/2/4/8/16 loss, you stop -31
2/4/8/16/32  but only 16 times to recover the previous lost bets 2*16>31, if it happens again
4/8/16/32/64 again
8/16/32/64  wipeout will happen in 6 consecutive losses so a least 6 days, far more likely at least 12!

At no point I'm saying this is a successful strategy, but a bet is a bet, even if it's on top of a bet!
As I said in the disclaimer, I'm financially motivated both ways

[stompix]

I'm going to kill myself  
The math you need to do before each bet and the little time between the races will for sure make me do a costly mistake at one point

Anyhow,
Wednesday the loss happen

Victorious One  2/5 $1Lost Reciprocated 10/11 $2 Win - profit $0.90
Coup De Force 5/4 Win  - profit $1.25
I'm A Believer 11/8 Win - profit $1.38
Wojtek 11/10 $1Lost  Katana 6/4 $1.5Lost Saqqara Sands 1/1 $3.5 Win - profit $1
Kodi Lion  6/4 $1Lost Golden Echo 5/6 $2 Lost Rogue Millions 11/8 $3 Win - profit $1.13
Asmen Warrior 4/11 Win   - profit $0.36
Cape Breton 1/1 Win   - profit $1
Havana Anna 4/11 Win - profit $0.36
Mahra's Love 5/4 Win  - profit $1.25
Sounds Like A Plan 11/8 $1Lost Faiyum 10/11 $2 Lost Cape Orator 6/5 $3 Win - profit $1.60

Paddydaddy 6/4 $1Lost    Thank The Lord 11/8 $1.5 Lost Guarded 11/10 $2.5 Lost  Dubai Beach 3/5 $10 Lost Launceston 5/4 $12 Lost
5 continous losses - end of streak

Day 5: 22 bets, max bet $12, $27 max bankroll needed,  $-18.75 loss

Thursday - loss on the previous day so $2 starting bets

Miss Cartesian 6/5   Win - profit $2.40
Sir Albert 6/4 Win - profit $3.00
Ela's Gem 6/5 Win - profit $2.40
Bella Lyra  6/4 $2 Lost -  Little Keilee  11/8 $3.5 Lost   Kanishka 11/10  5 Win - profit $1.90
V Twelve  6/5 Win - profit $2.40
U S S Charleston 5/4  $2 Lost - Wor Faayth 8/11 5 Win - profit $1.64
Maris Angel 11/10  $2 Lost - Danger Bay 1/1 4 Win - profit $2

Day 6: 12 bets, max bet $5, $11 max bankroll needed,  $15.74 profit  < not covering previous loss so keeping double bets

Friday still 2$ bets

Favorite Memory 1/4 Win - profit $0.50
Captain Brett 8/13  Win - profit $1.23
Displaying 8/13  Win - profit $1.23
Fairlawn Flyer 6/4 Win - profit $3.00
Novello Lad 11/8 $2 Lost - Blue Rc 6/5  Win - profit $2.80
Blue Anthem 5/4  $2 Lost - Puerto Rico 4/6  $5 Lost - Warrior Mode 4/9  $18 Lost  - Butterfly Beach 6/5  $22 Lost (butt-clenching moment)  Excellent Believe 8/15  $80 Win - profit $0.80
https://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-popout/VOD/1523458
If you watch the race, my heart stoopped beating at 1:00 and started again at 1:12 ))
Azaniya 10/11 f Win - profit $2.20
Boogie Inthejungle 11/8 $2 Lost  Crowd Quake 1/1 $4 Win - profit $2.00
Diamond Rain 5/6  Win - profit $1.67
Saxonia 6/5  Win - profit $2.40

Day 7: 16 bets, max bet $80, $130 max bankroll needed,  $17.83 profit  < loss from Wedneday covered going back to 1$.

Total 95 bets, max bet $80, $130 max bankroll needed,  $40.86 profit

I will not bet on Saturday! No way I'm able to make it, I will simulate the betting from the results at the end of the day!

[o48o]

I am assuming this is just for fun, but in case people are looking some confirmation from these results, i need to say that the reason why martingale doesn't work can be proven by mathematics.

You can't really draw any conclusions about statistics by gambling on few games, because statistics require a ton of data and results contain margin or error. And only thing winning with martingale in a long run would prove, is that you might be falling into that margin of error by having abnormal winning spree. Statistically that would be however near impossible further you go.

[Mia Chloe]

I am assuming this is just for fun, but in case people are looking some confirmation from these results, i need to say that the reason why martingale doesn't work can be proven by mathematics.
You can't really draw any conclusions about statistics by gambling on few games, because statistics require a ton of data and results contain margin or error.

Exactly, no matter how you try to put it the math ends up pointing at probability. You are still luck dependent either way. The thing is those so called stats only gives you a measure of what should play out if it goes strictly mathematical but the big problem is bets don't depend on math only but luck too and luck can't be predicted.
Take a coin flip for example, math suggests that for every 2 flips you should get a head and a tail. But the thing is based on luck you could hit heads 10 times in 10 flips even if the chances is around 2^-10.